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CME
CME Group Inc.
Earnings
> 2026Q1 Review
CME | Earnings Review
CME Group Inc. | 2026Q1 reported April 22, 2026 | Analysis date: April 28, 2026 | Daloopa company_id 333
Revenue Beat
+28.0%
$1.88B actual vs stale $1.47B preview consensus
EPS Beat
+12.0%
$3.36 actual vs $3.00 preview consensus
ADV Acceleration
+22%
36.2M contracts, record quarterly ADV
Trajectory
Accelerating
Revenue +14.5% YoY; operating margin +200 bps YoY
CME converted the volatility setup from the preview into a clean Q1 beat. Revenue reached $1.88B, up 14.5% YoY, while diluted EPS reached $3.36, up 20.0% YoY. The core driver was record ADV of 36.2M contracts, validating the thesis that tariff and rate volatility would flow directly through transaction revenue.
Key Metrics Trends
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average daily volume | 26,360.0 | 25,941.0 | 28,289.0 | 25,503.0 | 29,768.0 | 30,217.0 | 25,322.0 | 27,353.0 | 36,231.0 |
| Average daily volume YoY % | - | - | - | - | +12.9% | +16.5% | -10.5% | +7.3% | +21.7% |
| Clearing and transaction fees | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| Clearing and transaction fees YoY % | - | - | - | - | +10.6% | +11.0% | -5.3% | +7.8% | +15.4% |
| Market data revenue | $175M | $175M | $178M | $182M | $194M | $198M | $202M | $208M | $224M |
| Market data revenue YoY % | - | - | - | - | +10.9% | +13.2% | +13.6% | +14.5% | +15.2% |
| Total revenue | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.9B |
| Total revenue YoY % | - | - | - | - | +10.4% | +10.4% | -3.0% | +8.1% | +14.5% |
| Operating margin | 69.0% | 69.0% | 69.0% | 66.0% | 71.0% | 71.0% | 68.0% | 67.0% | 73.0% |
| Operating margin YoY chg (bps) | - | - | - | - | +200 | +200 | -100 | +100 | +200 |
| Diluted EPS | $2.50 | $2.56 | $2.68 | $2.52 | $2.80 | $2.96 | $2.68 | $2.77 | $3.36 |
| Diluted EPS YoY % | - | - | - | - | +12.0% | +15.6% | +0.0% | +9.9% | +20.0% |
CME is accelerating: total revenue growth stepped up to +14.5% YoY, EPS growth to +20.0%, and operating margin expanded to 73%. The business remains highly volume-sensitive, but Q1 showed pricing, market data, and operating leverage all working in the same direction.
Beat/Miss
Guidance
Catalysts
Street Q&A
Contradictions
Read-Throughs
This Quarter vs Consensus
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Variance | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.47B | $1.88B | +$410M / +28.0% | Beat |
| Diluted EPS | $3.00 | $3.36 | +$0.36 / +12.0% | Beat |
| Average daily volume | 36.2M preview estimate | 36.2M | In line with published volume | Confirmed |
| Operating margin | n/a | 73.0% | +200 bps YoY | Beat signal |
Pattern: consistent beater when volatility rises. Q1 beat magnitude improved sharply versus the prior four quarters because transaction revenue and operating leverage both accelerated.
Guidance Deep Dive
| Metric | Prior / Consensus | New / Actual | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expense guide | $1.695B annual guidance discussed on call | Management remained comfortable with the guide | Operating leverage intact if volumes remain elevated |
| Market data | Expected steady growth | $224M, +15.2% YoY | Higher-quality recurring revenue accelerated |
| Volume backdrop | Volatility was expected to help Q1 | 36.2M ADV, +21.7% YoY | Known volume data translated into earnings |
Management tone was confident but appropriately volume-dependent. Daloopa transcript search shows the street focused on expense guidance, and management said it was comfortable with the current full-year framework. Source: CME transcript 2026Q1.
Upcoming Catalysts
| Catalyst | Timing | Consensus / Watch | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sustained rates and tariff volatility | Q2 2026 | ADV durability after March spike | Direct read-through to transaction revenue |
| Market data repricing | 2026 | Recurring revenue growth | Could support multiple if volume normalizes |
| Expense discipline | 2026 | $1.695B expense framework | Key operating leverage variable |
| Cash market growth | 2026 | EBS/BrokerTec contribution | Incremental revenue diversification |
Street Q&A
| Question | Management response | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Can expense guidance hold after the strong quarter? | Management said it remained comfortable with the annual expense guidance and would keep monitoring the year. | Well answered |
| Is the volume spike sustainable? | Management framed volatility as cyclical but emphasized broad participation across asset classes. | Partly answered |
| What is the market data growth trajectory? | Q1 data showed double-digit growth, but management avoided over-committing to a new run-rate. | Reasonable caution |
Contradictions
Indirect Read-Throughs
| Theme | Commentary | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Macro volatility | Tariffs, rates, energy and metals volatility drove records across asset classes. | Positive for exchanges and market infrastructure exposed to hedging demand. |
| Rates complex | Interest-rate ADV was the largest contributor. | Read-through positive for futures/options ecosystem and negative for quiet-volatility assumptions. |
| Energy and metals | Energy and metals volumes surged with tariff uncertainty. | Positive read-through to commodity data, clearing and exchange peers. |
Data sourced from Daloopa. Document search is currently in beta; transcript and filing snippets may vary.