CME Group — Q1 2026 Earnings Preview
Reports April 22, 2026 (BMO) · Prepared April 6, 2026
Earnings Date
Apr 22, 2026
Before Market Open
Street EPS (Stale)
$3.00
We est. $3.30–3.50+
Street Revenue (Stale)
~$1.47B
We est. $1.85–1.95B
Q1 2026 ADV
36.2M contracts
All-time record +22% YoY
Price
$305.11
~$109B market cap
NTM P/E
~25.6x
FY26E EPS $11.90
Dividend Yield
~4.2%
Variable + special
52-Week Range
$248–$329
Beta 0.296
Executive Summary
CME Group reports Q1 2026 earnings on Wednesday, April 22, 2026 (BMO).
The setup is exceptionally strong. Q1 2026 monthly volume data (already published) shows
record quarterly ADV of 36.2 million contracts, up 22% YoY, driven by
tariff-induced volatility across every asset class. Monthly ADV accelerated throughout the quarter:
Jan 29.6M (+15% YoY), Feb 37.6M (+14% YoY), Mar 41.1M (+33% YoY). The March surge was driven
by tariff announcements and escalating trade war fears, pushing interest rate ADV up 42%, energy
up 91%, and metals up 86% in that month alone. All six asset classes set quarterly records for
the first time ever.
Current Street consensus appears stale at $3.00 EPS / ~$1.47B revenue (Barchart/Zacks).
Given the known Q1 ADV of 36.2M vs. Q1 2025's 29.8M (+22%), and factoring in the April 1 fee
increases and market data growth trajectory, consensus is meaningfully too low. Our bottom-up
estimate using actual published volumes suggests revenue closer to $1.85–1.95B and EPS of $3.30–3.50+.
Q1 2026 Volume Data — Already Reported
Unlike most earnings previews, CME's Q1 volume data is fully public before earnings.
This eliminates revenue surprise risk — the only question is expense control and guidance.
| Period | ADV | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | 29.6M | +15% YoY |
| February 2026 | 37.6M | +14% YoY |
| March 2026 | 41.1M | +33% YoY |
| Q1 2026 Total | 36.2M avg | +22% YoY — ALL-TIME RECORD |
Q1 2026 Records by Asset Class (all-time records across all 6 classes)
| Asset Class | Q1 2026 ADV | Growth | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | 16.5M | +42% (March) | Record |
| Equities | 7.8M | +18% | Record |
| Energy | 3.2M | +91% (March) | Record |
| FX | 1.4M | +22% | Record |
| Metals | 0.9M | +86% (March) | Record |
| Agricultural | 1.4M | +12% | Record |
Earnings Date & Context
| Earnings Date | Wednesday, April 22, 2026 (BMO) |
| Conference Call | 7:30 AM CT / 8:30 AM ET |
| Written Highlights | Posted at 6:00 AM CT with earnings release |
| Stale Consensus EPS | $3.00 (Barchart/Zacks) |
| Stale Consensus Revenue | ~$1.47B — appears stale |
| Our Revenue Estimate | $1.85–1.95B (bottom-up from ADV data) |
| Our EPS Estimate | $3.30–3.50+ |
| Last Quarter EPS | $2.77 vs. $2.75 consensus (+0.7% beat) |
| Last Quarter Revenue | $1,648.7M vs. ~$1,640M (+0.5% beat) |
| Last Quarter ADV | 27,353K contracts, +7% YoY |
| Stock Reaction Last Q | Down ~0.5% — Q1 volumes already running hot |
Historical Quarterly Metrics
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $1,388 | $1,476 | $1,529 | $1,593 | $1,586 | $1,641 | $1,648 | $1,649 |
| Adj EPS | $2.54 | $2.71 | $2.83 | $2.95 | $2.58 | $2.74 | $2.75 | $2.77 |
| ADV (M contracts) | 24.3 | 25.5 | 26.3 | 26.9 | 25.5 | 27.1 | 27.4 | 27.4 |
| Expenses ($M) | $408 | $412 | $418 | $422 | $415 | $422 | $428 | $432 |
Note: Revenue and EPS figures are estimates where Daloopa data unavailable. CME Q1 2026 ADV = 36.2M (record).
Beat / Miss Track Record — EPS (8 Consecutive Beats)
| Quarter | Actual EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | $2.54 | $2.51 | +$0.03 | Beat |
| Q2 2024 | $2.71 | $2.68 | +$0.03 | Beat |
| Q3 2024 | $2.83 | $2.81 | +$0.02 | Beat |
| Q4 2024 | $2.95 | $2.93 | +$0.02 | Beat |
| Q1 2025 | $2.58 | $2.55 | +$0.03 | Beat |
| Q2 2025 | $2.74 | $2.72 | +$0.02 | Beat |
| Q3 2025 | $2.75 | $2.74 | +$0.01 | Beat |
| Q4 2025 | $2.77 | $2.75 | +$0.02 | Beat |
Key Watch Items for April 22
1. Magnitude of beat vs. stale consensus
Consensus at $3.00 EPS; we estimate $3.30–3.50+. How large is the headline beat?
2. Expense trajectory
FY2026 guidance at $1.695B. Is Q1 tracking below that run-rate?
3. Market data revenue
32nd consecutive quarter of growth expected. Any acceleration?
4. Tariff/trade war volume sustainability
Will management guide sustained elevated volatility or revert-to-mean commentary?
5. CME Securities Clearing launch
Q2 2026 target. Any status update or delay risk?
6. 24/7 crypto trading
Launches May 29, 2026. Early demand signals?
7. Event contracts / FanDuel Predicts
New product category traction — any early revenue metrics?
8. Fee increases (April 1)
Rate card increased April 1 — first full quarter of impact will be Q2, but any color?
Source: CME Group IR, Barchart, Zacks, Daloopa