Thematic Exposure -- 8.5/10
CME Group operates the premier monopoly franchise in global derivatives, with structural moats
across six asset classes that cannot be replicated. Exclusive index licenses (S&P 500, Nasdaq,
Dow, Russell locked through 2039), ~98% U.S. interest rate futures share, IP-protected benchmarks
(SOFR, WTI, Henry Hub), and $60B/day in cross-margin savings create near-zero competitive risk.
Product innovation in crypto, event contracts, and market data adds asymmetric upside optionality.
Weight: 25%
Asset Class Revenue Breakdown (Q4 2025)
| Asset Class | Revenue ($M) | YoY Growth | Share of Clearing Fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rates | $404.5 | -1.5% | 30.5% |
| Equity Indexes | $302.7 | +13.3% | 22.8% |
| Energy | $201.1 | +0.8% | 15.1% |
| Agricultural | $163.2 | +6.9% | 12.3% |
| Metals | $119.3 | +81.0% | 9.0% |
| Foreign Exchange | $46.3 | -4.1% | 3.5% |
Data sourced from Daloopa
Interest Rate Futures (~98% U.S. Market Share)
Structural Moat
SOFR futures and options are the global benchmark for short-term rates. CME has exclusive
clearing with no viable competitor. U.S. Treasury futures represent the deepest liquidity
pool globally. The SEC treasury clearing mandate could expand the addressable market
significantly through CME Securities Clearing (approved Dec 2025).
U.S. Market Share
~98%
Interest rate futures
Q4 2025 Revenue
$404.5M
30.5% of clearing fees
SOFR Benchmark
Exclusive
No viable competitor
Treasury Clearing
SEC Approved
CME Securities Clearing, Dec 2025
Equity Index (Exclusive Licenses Through 2039)
Structural Moat
Extended Nasdaq index license through 2039. S&P/Dow Jones and FTSE Russell licenses locked in.
These create absolute barriers to entry for competing exchanges. No other venue can list futures
on the most important U.S. equity benchmarks.
Q4 2025 Revenue
$302.7M
+13.3% YoY
Nasdaq License
Through 2039
Exclusive
Other Licenses
Locked In
S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell
Energy (WTI ~73%, Henry Hub ~78%)
Structural Moat
WTI crude ~73% share vs ICE. WTI options ~91% share. Henry Hub natural gas futures ~78%
share, options ~71%. Structural tailwind from U.S. becoming the largest energy exporter globally.
WTI Crude Share
~73%
vs ICE ~27%
WTI Options Share
~91%
Near-monopoly
Henry Hub Futures
~78%
Nat gas benchmark
Q4 2025 Revenue
$201.1M
15.1% of clearing fees
Crypto (379K ADV, Institutional-Grade Venue)
Growth Frontier
Record 379K ADV in Q4 2025, up 92% YoY per management commentary. Launched Solana, XRP,
Cardano, Chainlink, and Stellar futures. 24/7 trading announced for early 2026. Still less
than 3% of total revenue but meaningful directional growth.
Q4 2025 ADV
379K
+92% YoY
Altcoin Futures
5 Launched
SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, XLM
24/7 Trading
Early 2026
Institutional differentiator
Event Contracts (68M in First 6 Weeks)
Growth Frontier
Launched Dec 2025 with FanDuel joint venture. 68 million contracts traded in first six weeks --
remarkable traction. New customer acquisition channel reaching 13 million FanDuel accounts.
Market-related event contracts are outpacing sports contracts, creating a bridge to
traditional CME products. Early but high-potential category.
Contracts Traded
68M
First 6 weeks
FanDuel Accounts
13M
Distribution channel
Category Leader
Market Events
Outpacing sports contracts
International Growth (8.4M ADV Record)
Secular Growth
Record 8.4M ADV in FY2025 (+8% YoY). Q2 2025 saw 9.2M ADV (+18% YoY). EMEA and APAC both
at record levels. The secular trend of global multi-strategy hedge funds expanding into
commodities is a structural driver that may be underappreciated.
FY2025 International ADV
8.4M
+8% YoY, record
Q2 2025 Peak
9.2M
+18% YoY
Key Regions
EMEA + APAC
Both at record levels
Market Data ($800M+, 31 Consecutive Quarters Growth)
Recurring Revenue
31 consecutive quarters of growth. Surpassed $800M annually in FY2025 (+13.1% YoY).
Data-as-a-service model is highly recurring with 3.5% annual pricing power. Q4 2025
market data revenue reached $208M (+14.5% YoY) -- accelerating growth trajectory.
FY2025 Market Data
$803M
+13.1% YoY
Consecutive Growth
31 Quarters
Unbroken streak
Q4 2025 Revenue
$208M
+14.5% YoY, accelerating
Pricing Power
~3.5%/yr
Annual escalators
Regulatory Moat
Competitive Insulation
CME operates under CFTC oversight as a Designated Contract Market. IP-protected benchmark
products (SOFR, S&P 500, Nasdaq, WTI, Henry Hub) cannot be replicated by competitors.
Cross-margining savings of ~$60B/day across six asset classes create massive switching costs
that lock in participants.
Cross-Margin Savings
~$60B/day
Across 6 asset classes
Regulatory Status
DCM
CFTC Designated Contract Market
IP-Protected Benchmarks
5+
SOFR, S&P, Nasdaq, WTI, Henry Hub
Score rationale
8.5/10 — CME Group possesses one of
the widest moats in financial services. The combination of ~98% U.S. interest rate futures share,
exclusive equity index licenses locked through 2039, dominant energy benchmarks (WTI ~73%, Henry
Hub ~78%), and IP-protected products creates near-zero competitive risk. The growth vectors are
compelling: crypto ADV up 92% YoY, event contracts with 68M traded in their first six weeks via
the FanDuel JV, international ADV at record 8.4M, and market data surpassing $800M with 31
consecutive quarters of growth. The regulatory moat ($60B/day cross-margining, CFTC oversight,
irreplicable benchmarks) provides additional insulation. The score is 8.5 rather than 9+ because
the franchise is mature -- growth is steady but not explosive. Interest rate ADV showed
mean-reversion risk in H2 2025, crypto remains under 3% of revenue, and the event contracts
business faces regulatory uncertainty around state gaming laws. The optionality from treasury
clearing and prediction markets provides asymmetric upside but remains unproven.
Data sourced from Daloopa, earnings transcripts, and company filings.