Management Quality -- 8.5/10
| Promise | Made | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fifth consecutive year of record volume | FY2024Q4 call | DELIVERED | FY2025 ADV 28.1M (+6% YoY), fifth consecutive record |
| Revenue growth with expense discipline | Ongoing | DELIVERED | FY2025 revenue +6.4%, adj. op margin expanded to 69.4% (+110bps YoY) |
| Launch CME Securities Clearing in 2026 | FY2024Q4 call | IN PROGRESS | SEC approval received Dec 2025, on track for launch |
| 24/7 crypto trading | FY2025Q4 call | IN PROGRESS | Announced for early 2026 |
| Event contracts launch with FanDuel | FY2025Q3 call | DELIVERED | Launched Dec 2025, 68M contracts in first 6 weeks |
| Expense guidance: $1.695B for 2026 | FY2025Q4 call | GUIDED | Reduced FY2025 guidance twice ($1.65B to $1.635B to $1.625B actual) |
| Cross-margin FICC expansion to end-user clients | FY2024Q4 call | IN PROGRESS | Operationally ready, awaiting SEC approval |
| Fee changes to add ~2-2.5% to pre-tax income | FY2024Q4 call | DELIVERED | Confirmed per FY2025 results |
| Year | Variable Dividend | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $1,183.8M | -- |
| FY2022 | $1,635.7M | +38.2% |
| FY2023 | $1,910.0M | +16.8% |
| FY2024 | $2,112.2M | +10.6% |
| FY2025 | TBD (declaring Q1 2026) | -- |
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adj. Operating Margin | 66.8% | 68.3% | 69.4% |
| FY2025 Expense Guidance | -- | Beat by $25M cumulative | |
| FY2025 Expense Revisions | -- | $1.65B → $1.635B → $1.625B actual | |
| Google Cloud Migration | -- | ~$100M spend absorbed while on-prem costs roll off | |
Duffy is a proven operator who consistently under-promises and over-delivers. Five consecutive years of record volume and four consecutive years of record revenue and EPS demonstrate sustained execution across market cycles. The capital return framework is best-in-class: ~$3.9B in FY2025 dividends (regular plus variable), a newly initiated buyback program funded by the Austro JV sale, and a regular dividend increase from $1.15 to $1.25 per share.
Product innovation continues at pace: the FanDuel event contracts partnership generated 68M contracts in its first six weeks, crypto futures reached record ADV of 379K/day, and the 24/7 trading initiative is on track for early 2026. The CME Securities Clearing launch (SEC-approved Dec 2025) positions the firm to capture the treasury clearing mandate -- a multi-year revenue opportunity.
Cost discipline remains a hallmark: management guided and then beat expense guidance by $25M cumulatively in FY2025, absorbing ~$100M in Google Cloud migration spend while expanding adjusted operating margins from 66.8% to 69.4% over two years.