Financial Trends -- 9/10
- Q1'26 revenue of $1,880M was a quarterly record, up +14.5% YoY -- accelerating from +10.4% in Q1'25
- Revenue driven by record ADV of 36.2M contracts, the highest single-quarter ADV in company history
- Growth trajectory reaccelerated: +8.1% in Q4'25 to +14.5% in Q1'26, the strongest YoY print since Q3'24
- Q3'25 was the only negative YoY quarter (-3.0%), following an exceptionally strong Q3'24 comp
- Revenue ~82% clearing/transaction fees (volume-driven), ~12% market data (recurring)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| FCF Margin (Q1'26) | ~66% |
| FCF YoY Growth (Q1'26) | +12.3% |
| 5-Year FCF CAGR | ~16.5% |
| Capex Intensity | ~$85M annually (~1.3% of revenue) |
| Net Margin | ~63% |
- ~66% FCF margin is best-in-class among financial infrastructure companies
- Virtually all earnings convert to cash on minimal capex (~$85M annually)
- 5-year FCF CAGR of ~16.5% reflects compounding volume growth on a fixed-cost base
- FCF growth of +12.3% YoY in Q1'26, consistent with the revenue acceleration
- Capital return: ~$3.9B in total dividends in FY2025 plus initiation of $256M in share repurchases in Q4'25
- Clearing fees represent ~82% of total revenue and track closely with ADV trends
- FY2025 clearing fees of $5.28B vs $4.99B in FY2024, up 5.9% YoY
- Q2'25 peak of $1.39B (+11.1% YoY) was the high-water mark for FY2025
- Q1'26 clearing fees expected to have surged in line with the 36.2M record ADV quarter
- Market data is the highest-quality revenue stream: 31+ consecutive quarters of growth
- YoY growth accelerated every quarter in FY2025: +10.9%, +13.2%, +13.6%, +14.5%
- Surpassed $800M annually for the first time ($803M in FY2025, +13.1% YoY)
- Highly recurring, data-as-a-service model with ~3.5% annual pricing power
- Adj. operating margin expanded from 68.3% (FY2024) to 69.4% (FY2025), +110 bps YoY
- H1'25 margins of 71% reflect strong operating leverage on elevated volumes
- Operating leverage is the key structural advantage: largely fixed-cost infrastructure with variable revenue
- Q1'26 margin expected to expand further on the record $1.88B revenue quarter
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $4,690M | $5,019M | $5,579M | $6,130M | $6,521M |
| Revenue YoY | — | +7.0% | +11.1% | +9.9% | +6.4% |
| Adj. Diluted EPS | $6.69 | $7.98 | $9.34 | $10.26 | $11.21 |
| Adj. EPS YoY | — | +19.3% | +17.0% | +9.9% | +9.3% |
| Adj. Op. Margin | — | — | — | 68.3% | 69.4% |
| Market Data ($M) | $577M | $611M | $664M | $710M | $803M |
- Revenue compounded from $4.69B (FY2021) to $6.52B (FY2025), an 8.6% CAGR over 4 years
- Adj. EPS compounded from $6.69 to $11.21 over the same period, a 13.8% CAGR -- faster than revenue due to margin expansion
- Market data revenue growth accelerated from +5.9% (FY2022) to +13.1% (FY2025) -- the recurring revenue engine
- Q1'26 annualized revenue run rate of ~$7.5B implies continued acceleration into FY2026
CME Group earns a 9/10 on Financial Trends. Q1'26 revenue of $1,880M (+14.5% YoY) was a quarterly record, driven by record ADV of 36.2M contracts. Revenue growth is accelerating, not decelerating. Free cash flow margin of ~66% is best-in-class among financial infrastructure companies, growing +12.3% YoY with a 5-year FCF CAGR of ~16.5%. Operating margin continues to expand on the highly scalable, largely fixed-cost clearing infrastructure. Share count is stable/slightly declining following the initiation of buybacks in Q4'25.
~82% of revenue comes from clearing and transaction fees, which are directly volume-driven. Market data ($803M in FY2025, +13.1% YoY) provides a high-quality recurring revenue floor with 31+ consecutive quarters of growth. Average RPC is stable, with fee changes adding ~2-2.5% annually to pre-tax income.
No penalty modifiers apply: no debt concerns (net cash from clearing operations), no accounting irregularities, no one-time items inflating the results. The only reason this is not a 10/10 is the inherent volume sensitivity -- Q3'25 showed a -3.0% YoY revenue decline when volatility compressed, demonstrating that even the best exchange is not fully immune to the macro environment.
Score: 9/10