Financial Trends -- 8.5/10

• FY2025 total revenue of $6.52B vs $6.13B in FY2024, up 6.4% YoY -- fourth consecutive record
• Q2 2025 was the strongest quarter at $1.69B (+10.4% YoY), coinciding with peak rate volatility
• Q3 2025 was the only negative YoY quarter (-3.0%), following an exceptionally strong Q3 2024 comp
• Growth reaccelerated to +8.1% in Q4 2025, driven by metals and equity index strength

• Clearing fees represent ~81% of total revenue and track closely with ADV trends
• FY2025 clearing fees of $5.28B vs $4.99B in FY2024, up 5.9% YoY
• Q2 2025 peak of $1.39B (+11.1% YoY) was the high-water mark, driven by interest rate and energy volumes
• Q3 2025 showed the YoY decline (-5.3%), consistent with the overall revenue softness in that quarter

• Market data is the highest-quality revenue stream: 31 consecutive quarters of growth
• YoY growth accelerated every quarter in FY2025: +10.9%, +13.2%, +13.6%, +14.5%
• Surpassed $800M annually for the first time ($803.1M in FY2025, +13.1% YoY)
• Highly recurring, data-as-a-service model with ~3.5% annual pricing power

• FY2025 full-year Adj. EPS of $11.21, up 9.3% from $10.26 in FY2024 -- a record
• Q2 2025 was the standout quarter at $2.96 (+15.6% YoY), the highest quarterly EPS in company history
• Q3 2025 was flat YoY at $2.68, reflecting the volume softness in that quarter
• Growth reaccelerated to +9.9% in Q4 2025, driven by operating leverage and expense discipline

• Adj. operating margin expanded from 68.3% (FY2024) to 69.4% (FY2025), +110 bps YoY
• H1 2025 margins of 71% reflect strong operating leverage on elevated volumes
• H2 2025 moderated to 67-68%, consistent with lower volumes and seasonal expense timing
• Management guided expenses at $1.695B for 2026 but has beaten guidance in each of the last 3 years

• Average RPC has been remarkably stable in the $0.666-$0.708 range over the 8-quarter period
• Q4 2025 RPC of $0.707 was near the top of the range, benefiting from mix shift toward higher-RPC products
• Management guided fee changes to add ~2-2.5% to pre-tax income annually, which was delivered in FY2025
• RPC stability combined with ADV growth is the primary earnings growth driver

• Metals ADV surged +114% YoY in Q4 2025 (1,441K vs 673K), driven by precious metals (gold at $3,500+/oz) and the new 1-ounce gold contract expanding retail participation
• Crypto ADV reached 379K/day in Q4 2025, up 92% per management commentary; launched SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, XLM futures
• Interest rates remain the largest asset class (~48% of total ADV) but showed normalization in H2 2025 as rate volatility compressed
• Energy ADV peaked at 3,082K in Q2 2025 (+25.9% YoY) but moderated through year-end
• FX was the weakest asset class, declining -23.4% in Q3 and -12.0% in Q4 YoY
• Total ADV of 28.1M for FY2025 marked the fifth consecutive record year

• Revenue compounded from $4.69B (FY2021) to $6.52B (FY2025), a 8.6% CAGR over 4 years
• Adj. EPS compounded from $6.69 to $11.21 over the same period, a 13.8% CAGR -- faster than revenue due to margin expansion
• Market data revenue growth accelerated from +5.9% (FY2022) to +13.1% (FY2025) -- the recurring revenue engine
• Variable dividend grew from $1.18B (FY2021) to $2.11B (FY2024), +78% cumulative growth in 3 years
• FY2025 total dividends of ~$3.9B plus initiation of $256M in share repurchases in Q4 2025

• FY2026E consensus EPS of ~$11.73 implies ~4.7% growth, a moderation from the +9.3% in FY2025
• FY2026E revenue of ~$6.85-$7.0B implies mid-single-digit growth, consistent with normalized volumes
• At $305.11, CME trades at ~26x FY2026E EPS -- a premium to financial services peers
• Premium is justified by 60%+ net margins, monopoly positioning, and recurring revenue characteristics
• FY2027E P/E of ~24x provides moderate multiple compression if growth continues at ~5%

CME Group delivered its fourth consecutive year of record revenue ($6.52B) and record Adj. EPS ($11.21) in FY2025. The financial profile is exceptional: 69.4% adj. operating margins, 63% net margins, and virtually all earnings converting to cash on ~$85M of annual capex. Revenue has compounded at 8.6% annually since FY2021, while EPS has compounded at 13.8% -- reflecting disciplined cost management and operating leverage.

The clearing and transaction fee business ($5.28B, 81% of revenue) grew 5.9% in FY2025, driven by the fifth consecutive year of record ADV (28.1M contracts). Market data revenue ($803M) accelerated to +13.1% growth, marking 31 consecutive quarters of increases -- one of the highest-quality recurring revenue streams in financial services. Average RPC remained stable at $0.69-0.71, with fee changes adding ~2-2.5% annually to pre-tax income.

The standout developments include: Metals ADV surging +114% YoY in Q4 2025, Crypto ADV reaching 379K/day, and market data growth accelerating to +14.5% in Q4. The primary constraint is that FY2025 growth decelerated to +6.4% (from +9.9% in FY2024), and consensus expects further moderation to ~5% in FY2026.

Score: 8.5/10 -- Exceptional financial consistency with monopoly-like margins and four consecutive record years. Market data acceleration and metals/crypto optionality provide upside. Minor deduction for growth deceleration and the Q3 2025 volume softness, which demonstrates sensitivity to the volatility environment.