GEV | Earnings Review — Q2 2026

BUY
NYSE: GEV  | Revenue accelerated to +21.9% YoY — the fastest since the 2024 spin-off — on a 2.18x book-to-bill and a mix shift toward Electrification, while GAAP EPS 'missed' consensus by -22% purely on a Q1'26 one-time-gain modeling artifact; management raised FY2026 guidance for the second time this year, nearly doubling the FCF range.
Revenue Beat/Miss
+2.9%
$11,104M vs $10,789.5M cons. · +21.9% YoY
EPS Beat/Miss
-22.1%
$2.47 vs $3.17 cons. · consensus artifact, not operating miss
Revenue Accelerating?
Yes
+560bps QoQ accel; 2nd straight quarter of reacceleration off Q4'25 trough
Guidance vs Consensus
Raised (2nd time)
FY26 revenue +$1.0B, FCF +$5.0B at both ends
GE Vernova Inc. | Q2 2026 reported July 22, 2026 | Analysis date: July 25, 2026 | Daloopa company_id 197701
Executive summary — what is new

GEV delivered a clean revenue/EBITDA/orders/FCF beat-and-raise in Q2 2026. Revenue of $11,104M beat consensus of $10,789.5M by +2.9% and grew +21.9% YoY — the fastest quarter since the April 2024 spin-off, up from +16.3% in Q1'26 and off a +3.8% trough in Q4'25. Adjusted EBITDA of $1,250M grew +62.3% YoY with margin expanding +280bps YoY to 11.3%(src) — the 8th straight quarter of YoY margin expansion. Orders of $24,216M nearly doubled (+95.9% YoY) on a 2.18x book-to-bill, and free cash flow of $5,107M brought H1 2026 FCF to $9.9B — already ahead of the old full-year guide. The one blemish: GAAP diluted EPS of $2.47 missed consensus of $3.17 by -22.1%, but this is a consensus-modeling artifact, not an operating shortfall — Street's EPS estimate appears anchored to Q1'26's anomalous $17.44 GAAP print, which was inflated by a ~$4.5B one-time Prolec GE remeasurement gain that management explicitly excludes from adjusted EBITDA. Net income attributable to GEV was $668M in Q2'26, itself +30% YoY vs. $514M — a clean beat once the one-time gain is stripped out; the cleaner EPS comparison (+32.8% YoY vs. Q2'25's $1.86) is healthy and consistent with margin trends.

Mix shift underneath the acceleration. Electrification — now 33% of revenue (was 24% a year ago) — grew +65.2% YoY (~12% organic, balance from the Prolec GE acquisition, which delivered "nearly $900 million of revenue" this quarter per CFO Ken Parks). Power grew +15.1% YoY. Wind continued to shrink, down -9.8% YoY, its third straight quarter of decline, though the drag is narrowing (vs. -22.6% in Q1'26).

New guidance (2nd raise this year): FY2026 revenue raised to $45.5-46.5B (from $44.5-45.5B, +$1.0B), FCF raised sharply to $11.5-12.5B (from $6.5-7.5B, +$5.0B) — driven by working-capital/down-payment timing on gas slot-reservation-agreement (SRA) conversions, not a proportional EBITDA read-through — and adjusted EBITDA margin held at 12-14% despite the revenue raise. Management flagged that H2'26 FCF will be "substantially lower" than H1, so the raise should not be read as a new steady-state run-rate.

Tone: stepped up from "confident-but-early" (Q1'26: "the growth is just starting") to "confident-and-specific" (Q2'26: multiple new, checkable multi-year targets — 30GW gas-turbine capacity by 2030, 125GW under contract by year-end 2026, more than half of 2031 slots sold by year-end). One minor disclosure step-down: management did not re-quantify the FY26 tariff net-impact figure this call (was $250-350M at Q1'26), folding it into segment guides instead.

Contradictions (2 flagged, plus 1 pattern): two genuine contradictions on Gas Power capacity commitments — (1) the CEO said 20GW annualized output was reached "by March" 2026 on the same call where the CFO said the milestone starts "midyear 2026," later confirmed still not reached as of Q2'26; (2) the 80-100GW-under-contract threshold was described in Q2'25 as the trigger for adding capacity, then recast a quarter later as merely a level to "evaluate." A softer pattern: Wind order-clarity has been "six months away" for at least three consecutive quarters without resolving.

Catalysts: the biggest near-term watch items are the Section 232 tariff ruling (Wind order clarity), the Greenville capacity step-up from 3GW/quarter to 5GW/quarter starting Q3'26, SST/MV-UPS data-center entitlement (2-3x current scope-per-GW, mostly a 2027 orders event), and whether 2026 proves to be "peak" gas-turbine order growth — a question management twice declined to answer directly on the call.

Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id 197701); GEV Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (2026-07-22); FMP consensus (live pull, 2026-07-25). Bloomberg/Visible Alpha/S&P consensus not connected this run — flagged, not fabricated.

Key metrics & trends (8 quarters)

| Metric | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Total revenue ($M) | 8,913 | 10,559 | 8,032 | 9,111 | 9,969 | 10,956 | 9,339 | 11,104 | | Revenue YoY % | +8.0% | +5.1% | +10.6% | +11.1% | +11.8% | +3.8% | +16.3% | +21.9% | | Power revenue ($M) | 4,206 | 5,431 | 4,423 | 4,758 | 4,838 | 5,749 | 4,971 | 5,477 | | Power YoY % | +8.0% | -2.9% | +9.6% | +6.8% | +15.0% | +5.9% | +12.4% | +15.1% | | Wind revenue ($M) | 2,891 | 3,109 | 1,850 | 2,245 | 2,647 | 2,368 | 1,432 | 2,026 | | Wind YoY % | +0.1% | +20.2% | +12.9% | +8.9% | -8.4% | -23.8% | -22.6% | -9.8% | | Electrification revenue ($M) | 1,876 | 2,347 | 1,879 | 2,201 | 2,601 | 2,961 | 2,959 | 3,637 | | Electrification YoY % | +25.4% | +23.1% | +17.0% | +27.9% | +38.7% | +26.2% | +57.5% | +65.2% | | Total orders ($M) | 9,397 | 13,207 | 10,152 | 12,364 | 14,608 | 22,192 | 18,279 | 24,216 | | Orders YoY % / book-to-bill | +14.0% / 1.05x | +19.8% / 1.25x | +5.1% / 1.26x | +4.4% / 1.36x | +55.5% / 1.47x | +68.0% / 2.03x | +80.1% / 1.96x | +95.9% / 2.18x | | Adj. EBITDA ($M) | 243 | 1,079 | 457 | 770 | 811 | 1,158 | 896 | 1,250 | | Adj. EBITDA margin % | 2.7% | 10.2% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 11.3% | | EBITDA margin YoY (bps) | +20 | +440 | +310 | +210 | +540 | +40 | +390 | +280 | | Diluted EPS ($) | (0.35) | 1.73 | 0.91 | 1.86 | 1.64 | 13.39 | 17.44 | 2.47 | | Free cash flow ($M) | 968 | 572 | 975 | 194 | 732 | 1,809 | 4,791 | 5,107 |

Verdict — accelerating. Revenue growth troughed at +3.8% YoY in Q4'25 and has now reaccelerated for two straight quarters to +16.3% and +21.9% — the fastest since the spin-off — while Adjusted EBITDA margin has expanded YoY in all 8 of the last 8 quarters. Electrification is now 33% of revenue (was 24% a year ago) and growing fastest of the three segments; Wind is shrinking as a share of the business. GAAP diluted EPS for Q4'25 ($13.39) and Q1'26 ($17.44) is inflated by non-recurring gains (net income hit a ~51% margin in Q1'26 on a normal high-single-digit run-rate) and is not a meaningful YoY comparison in those two quarters — Adjusted EBITDA is the cleaner operating lens. Note: H1 2026 FCF ($9,898M) already exceeds the original full-year FY2026 FCF guide of $6.5-7.5B — a working-capital pull-forward worth watching for anniversary effects in H2, not a run-rate to extrapolate.

Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id 197701).

Beat/Miss — last 8 quarters (this quarter highlighted)

| Quarter | Revenue Actual | Revenue Cons. | Rev B/M | GAAP EPS Actual | GAAP EPS Cons. | EPS B/M | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Q3'24 | $8,913M | $8,751.6M | 🟢 +1.8% | $0.35 | $0.19 | 🟢 +82.7% | | Q4'24 | $10,558M | $10,701.9M | 🔴 -1.3% | $1.73 | $2.28 | 🔴 -24.1% | | Q1'25 | $8,041M | $7,552.6M | 🟢 +6.5% | $0.91 | $0.47 | 🟢 +94.2% | | Q2'25 | $9,111M | $8,807.8M | 🟢 +3.4% | $1.86 | $1.48 | 🟢 +25.7% | | Q3'25 | $9,969M | $9,143.2M | 🟢 +9.0% | $1.64 | $1.72 | 🔴 -4.7% | | Q4'25 | $10,956M | $10,205.8M | 🟢 +7.4% | $13.39* | $2.93 | 🟢 +357%* | | Q1'26 | $9,339M | $9,251.6M | 🟢 +0.9% | $17.44* | $1.95 | 🟢 +794%* | | ▶ Q2'26 (THIS QTR) | $11,104M | $10,789.5M | 🟢 +2.9% | $2.47 | $3.17 | 🔴 -22.1% |

* Q4'25 and Q1'26 GAAP EPS actuals/beats are inflated by non-recurring M&A/divestiture gains (notably the ~$4.5B Prolec remeasurement gain) and are not clean operating beats. Pre-2024Q3 data is pre-/early-spin-off with materially incomplete consensus coverage and is excluded.

| Window | Revenue beat rate | GAAP EPS beat rate | |---|---|---| | Since spin-off (10Q) | 7/10 = 70% | 6/10 = 60% (40% ex. the two gain-inflated quarters) | | Last 4 quarters (L4Q) | 4/4 = 100% | 2/4 = 50% (0% ex. the two gain-inflated beats) |

Pattern: revenue a consistent beater; GAAP EPS increasingly unreliable as a signal. Revenue has beaten in every one of the last 4 quarters, though beat magnitude has moderated from the outsized +6.5% to +9.0% range (Q1'25-Q4'25) to a tighter +0.9% to +2.9% band the last two quarters — beats getting smaller but more consistent, not deteriorating. GAAP EPS beat/miss flips with no clean directional pattern, and once the two gain-inflated "beats" are stripped out, the trailing operating EPS record is closer to a misser (Street has now modeled GAAP EPS too high in 3 of the last 4 quarters ex-one-time items) — a data-quality issue with consensus extrapolating non-recurring gains forward, not evidence GEV's underlying earnings power is deteriorating (adjusted EBITDA, margin, orders and FCF all point the opposite direction).

Consensus per FMP /stable/earnings (live pull, 2026-07-25). Actuals sourced from Daloopa (company_id 197701).

Guidance deep dive

FY2026 total-company guidance — prior vs. new (issued 2026-07-22)

| Metric | Prior Guide (Q1'26 call) | New Guide (Q2'26 call) | Change | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue | $44.5-45.5B | $45.5-46.5B | +$1.0B at both ends | | Adjusted EBITDA margin | 12-14% | 12-14% | Unchanged — incremental revenue guided at roughly blended margin, not pure drop-through | | Free cash flow | $6.5-7.5B | $11.5-12.5B | +$5.0B at both ends — largest revision of the three, driven by SRA down-payment timing | | R&D + CapEx | ~30% YoY combined increase | ~30% YoY combined increase | Unchanged | | Corporate costs | $450-500M | $450-500M | Unchanged | | Tariff net impact | $250-350M (quantified) | Not re-quantified; folded into segment guides | Minor disclosure step-down |

(GEV does not issue consolidated EPS guidance — only revenue / adj. EBITDA margin / FCF / segment metrics. Any EPS-vs-consensus read below is Street-only, with no company number to benchmark against.)

Segment guidance, FY2026 — prior vs. new

| Segment | Metric | Prior (Q1'26) | New (Q2'26) | Change | |---|---|---|---|---| | Power | Organic revenue growth | 16-18% | 18-20% | +2pts both ends | | Power | Adj. EBITDA margin | 17-19% | 17-19% | Unchanged | | Electrification | Revenue | $14.0-14.5B | $14.5-15.0B | +$500M both ends | | Electrification | Adj. EBITDA margin | 18-20% | 18-20% | Unchanged | | Wind | Organic revenue | Down low double digits | Down low double digits | Unchanged | | Wind | Adj. EBITDA (dollar loss) | ~$400M loss | ~$400M loss | Unchanged |

Q3 2026 segment guidance — first disclosed this call

| Segment | Q3'26 guide | |---|---| | Power | Revenue +17-19% YoY; margin ~17-18% | | Electrification | Revenue $3.8-4.0B; margin modestly above Q2'26's 18.4% actual | | Wind | Revenue down low double digits YoY; EBITDA approximately breakeven | | Total company | Qualitative only: "continued YoY revenue growth and Adj. EBITDA margin expansion," positive FCF — no explicit consolidated $ guide given |

FY2026 free cash flow — the standout guidance revision

$7.0B Prior guide mid (Q1'26 call) +$5.0B raise SRA down-payment / working-capital timing $12.0B New guide mid (Q2'26 call) Consensus: no FCF series available
Per CFO Ken Parks: the FCF raise is not an EBITDA story — it is tied explicitly to elevated down payments correlating with the pace of SRA-to-order conversion. Management flags H2'26 FCF will be "substantially lower" than H1'26 as a result — the single most important qualifying statement on the call, and the reason this raise should not be read as a new steady-state.

FY2026 revenue and margin vs. consensus

| Metric | Prior Guide Mid | New Guide Mid | Consensus (FMP, pre-print, pulled 2026-06-25) | vs Prior | vs Consensus | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Revenue | $45.0B | $46.0B | $45.4B | +$1.0B (+2.2%) | +$0.6B (+1.3%) | | Adjusted EBITDA margin | 13.0% | 13.0% | ~22.3% (implied: $10.1B / $45.4B) | Unchanged at midpoint | Guide midpoint implies ~$5.98B EBITDA — ~$4.1B below the $10.1B consensus figure | | Free cash flow | $7.0B | $12.0B | Not available | +$5.0B (+71%) | N/A |

Data-quality caveat — do not gloss over: the FMP consensus Adjusted EBITDA figure ($10.1B FY2026) implies a ~22% margin, nearly double the top end of management's own 12-14% guided range. Either the FMP series uses a different EBITDA definition (e.g., unadjusted/GAAP EBITDA, or one that includes the Prolec/disposition gains management explicitly excludes) or it is stale/mis-mapped. Recommend not using this consensus EBITDA figure at face value until re-verified against Visible Alpha or Bloomberg BEst — flagged rather than silently reconciled.

Management tone — Q1'26 call vs. Q2'26 call

| Dimension | Q1'26 call (2026-04-22) | Q2'26 call (2026-07-22) | Change | |---|---|---|---| | Opening framing | "We have had a solid start to 2026... the growth is just starting" | "Our team is executing well as the demand... accelerates" | Start-of-year optimism → in-execution confidence | | Backlog | $163B, targeting $200B in 2027 | $176B (+$13B QoQ), same $200B-in-2027 target reiterated | On track, not re-raised — guidance discipline intact | | Capacity commitments | 20GW annualized run-rate "by March" (aspirational) | 20GW run-rate in progress; new 30GW-by-2030 target introduced | Targeting → delivering-and-raising-the-ceiling | | Order-book maturity | No equivalent language | New: expects H2'26 "inflection" where backlog GW exceeds SRA GW | New confidence marker | | Wind risk caveat | "Difficult to call an inflection point," tariff/permitting uncertainty | Same caveat repeated near-verbatim; explicit Section 232 dependency | Unchanged — consistent, not inflated | | Tariff impact framing | Explicit $ guide: "$250-350M net impact... fully built into our outlook" | Not re-quantified as a standalone figure this call | Slightly less transparent on this line item | | Capital return | $1.4B returned in Q1 | $2.5B returned in Q2; $7B cumulative of $10B program | Faster pace given cash build | | Overall stance | Cautiously confident, "early" framing | More assertive; quantifies multiple new multi-year targets | Confident-but-early → confident-and-specific |

Guidance sourced from GEV Q1'26 and Q2'26 earnings-call transcripts, cross-verified against Daloopa's structured "Guidance" series (company_id 197701).

Historical performance — 8-quarter trajectory

| Metric | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Revenue YoY % | +8.0% | +5.1% | +10.6% | +11.1% | +11.8% | +3.8% | +16.3% | +21.9% | | Rev accel (bps QoQ) | +695 | -288 | +551 | +43 | +79 | -809 | +1,251 | +560 | | GAAP EPS YoY %¹ | +43.5%* | +140.3% | NM† | -60.0%‡ | NM† | +674.0%§ | +1,816.5%§ | +32.8% |

¹ Daloopa carries no populated "adjusted EPS" series for GEV, so GAAP diluted EPS is used throughout. * Both quarters were losses (Q3'24 -$0.35 vs. Q3'23 -$0.62); this is a loss-narrowing calc, not earnings growth on a positive base. † NM = the quarter swung from a net loss to net income YoY, so a percentage is not interpretable. ‡ Q2'25's -60.0% is a comp effect — the Q2'24 base ($4.65) was itself inflated by a one-time item. § Q4'25 ($13.39) and Q1'26 ($17.44) are massively inflated by non-operating, non-recurring gains — not representative of core operating performance.

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%+ Q3'24Q4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26 trough high GEV Revenue YoY % — 8-quarter trajectory (Q3'24–Q2'26)

Inflection points:

  1. Q4'24 dip (+5.1%, -288bps decel) — Wind revenue softness beginning to show, plus tougher equipment-shipment comps.
  2. Q1'25-Q3'25 steady re-acceleration (+10.6% → +11.1% → +11.8%) — Power and Electrification volume/price gains offsetting persistent Wind weakness.
  3. Q4'25 trough (+3.8%, -809bps decel) — sharpest deceleration in the window, driven by the U.S. government's offshore-wind stop-work order (Vineyard Wind) plus a tough equipment-shipment comp at Power.
  4. Q1'26 sharp re-acceleration (+16.3%, +1,251bps accel) — largest acceleration in the window; broad-based (Power +10%, Electrification +61% GAAP including Prolec consolidation), partially offset by Wind.
  5. Q2'26 (just reported) — further acceleration to +21.9% YoY (+560bps accel), the fastest growth quarter in the window. Organic revenue +12% ex-Prolec per Ken Parks; equipment revenue +14% YoY (Electrification +36%, Power +30%), partially offset by Wind (-11% YoY per management, a smaller drag than prior quarters).

Plain-English assessment. Revenue growth is a genuine, broadening acceleration, not a one-off beat — after bottoming at +3.8% YoY in Q4'25, GEV has posted two consecutive quarters of sharp reacceleration to the fastest print in the window, largely organic and broad-based (Power and Electrification both double-digit, Wind's drag shrinking). The full-year guide has been raised twice in the last two quarters, confirming management sees this as durable. GAAP EPS, by contrast, is a mirage in this window — the two largest prints (Q4'25, Q1'26) are dominated by the ~$4.5B Prolec remeasurement gain that management itself strips from adjusted EBITDA; +674% and +1,816.5% YoY growth in consecutive quarters is not a real earnings signal, and Q2'26's reversal is a mechanical comp-rollover, not a slowdown. Q2'26 EPS of $2.47 vs. Q2'25's $1.86 (+32.8%) is the most representative "clean" comparison in this window — a normal, healthy growth rate consistent with margin-expansion trends.

Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id 197701, series: Total revenues, Diluted EPS); GEV Q1'26 and Q2'26 earnings-call transcripts.

Key catalysts

| # | Catalyst | Timing | Management commentary / status | |---|---|---|---| | 1 | Q3 2026 earnings report | Oct 21, 2026 | Guided: Power revenue +17-19% YoY at 17-18% margin; Electrification $3.8-4.0B; Wind down low-double-digits, EBITDA ~breakeven | | 2 | Gas turbine capacity ramp (Greenville): 3GW/quarter → 5GW/quarter | Starts Q3'26; 20GW annualized by YE26, 24GW by 2028, 30GW by 2030 | ~325 machines installed, ~400 by year-end; incremental capacity to 30GW comes from lean/automation (incl. the newly closed Robotech Automation deal), not major new capacity | | 3 | 2031 slot-reservation-to-order conversion | H2 2026 inflection point targeted | Targeting ≥125GW under contract by YE26 (from 116GW) and >50% of 2031 slots on contract by YE26 | | 4 | Data-center electrification entitlement expansion (SST + MV-UPS) | SST prototype delivery late 2026; orders mostly a 2027 event; MV-UPS orders possible as soon as H2'26 | $5B of data-center orders YTD in Electrification (vs. ~$13.5-14B segment orders total); entitlement framed at 2-3x today's ~$300/kW scope once SST/MV-UPS are commercial | | 5 | Solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) validation | Through 2026 into 2027 | 2026 explicitly framed as "technology validation," not commercial; commercial discussions expected to start 2027 | | 6 | Section 232 wind/transformer tariff ruling | Outcome pending; 2H26 flagged as the window for order clarity | U.S. onshore equipment demand remains soft; FY26 net tariff cost guided ~$100-200M (down from an earlier $250-350M estimate) | | 7 | OBBBA 45Y/48E "begin-construction" cutoff (wind PTC) | Hard deadline: construction start by July 4, 2026 | ~10GW of GEV's U.S. onshore install base cited as repowering candidates that already qualified for the new production tax credits | | 8 | BWRX-300 SMR (Ontario/Darlington + Poland) | Ongoing multi-year build | Tunnel-boring machine arrived and assembly began; two more tech selects and early work agreements signed in Q2'26 | | 9 | Credit rating trajectory | Already actioned (S&P BBB, Fitch BBB+ positive) | Further upgrade plausible if the FCF guide-raise ($11.5-12.5B) sustains; management reiterates commitment to investment-grade | | 10 | Capital return — $10B buyback program, $3B remaining | Ongoing through 2026+ | $7B cumulative repurchased (12.4M shares at $560 avg); $2.5B returned in Q2 alone | | 11 | Competitive supply race (Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Power) | Ongoing 2026-2028 | Management: "we feel very balanced with demand relative to supply" over a 5-6 year window; Siemens backlog ~$174B booked to FY2028, Mitsubishi ~30GW backlog + 20GW SRA sold out through 2028 |

Net read: the tariff ruling and gas-turbine capacity ramp are the most binary near-term items; the SST/MV-UPS entitlement expansion is the largest multi-year optionality; and whether 2026 is "peak" order growth (a question management twice declined to answer directly — see Street Q&A below) is the key modeling debate into 2027.

Sourced from the GEV Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (2026-07-22) and dated web search (S&P Global, Utility Dive, Reuters/CNBC coverage of the Joulent-Microsoft JV). Dollar/volume figures quoted from the call as stated by management, not independently re-verified against Daloopa source IDs.

Street Q&A

10 analyst questions taken on the Q2 2026 call (one question per analyst).

| Analyst (Firm) | Topic | Verdict | |---|---|---| | Nicole DeBlase (Deutsche Bank) | 30GW-by-2030 capacity target confirmation; Greenville update | 🟢 Well Answered | | Andrew Obin (Bank of America) | International (ex-North America) demand drivers | 🟢 Well Answered | | Nigel Coe (Wolfe Research) | Capital-light ramp confirmation; 2032-33 booking appetite | 🟡 Partially Deflected | | Andrew Kaplowitz (Citigroup) | Data-center order entitlement vs. $20B 2028 Electrification target | 🟢 Well Answered | | Ameet Thakkar (BMO Capital Markets) | Solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) update | 🟢 Well Answered | | David Arcaro (Morgan Stanley) | Is 2026 the peak year for gas turbine orders? | 🔴 Deflected/Avoided | | Joe Ritchie (Goldman Sachs) | Concern over industry-wide (competitor) capacity additions | 🟢 Well Answered | | Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Jefferies) | Non-turbine breakdown of peak-order debate; 2029/2030 EPC dynamics | 🔴 Deflected/Avoided | | Chris Dendrinos (RBC Capital Markets) | Aeroderivative order-mix skew vs. Heavy-Duty demand | 🟢 Well Answered | | Sunaina Ocalan (Bernstein) | SST risk-sharing / shared-development-cost arrangements | 🟢 Well Answered |

Deflected/Avoided — both center on one theme: whether 2026 is "peak" gas-turbine order volume. David Arcaro (Morgan Stanley) asked point-blank; management pivoted to backlog-growth confidence (≥125GW by year-end, ≥30GW of shipments over six quarters) without characterizing the order trajectory itself. Julien Dumoulin-Smith (Jefferies) followed up asking for a non-turbine breakdown and 2029/2030 EPC-capacity specifics; management's answer restated prepared-remarks language on SRA-to-order conversion without engaging the specifics requested. One additional question (Nigel Coe) saw a partial deflection on 2032-33 booking appetite specifically — management declined to give a timeline: "we need more time before we can articulate the timing of contracting 2032... let us do that work with our customers."

Read-through: management is comfortable discussing backlog, gigawatts-under-contract, and shipment ramps in granular detail, but is notably unwilling to characterize whether the rate of new order bookings has peaked — an important nuance for anyone modeling order growth (vs. backlog/revenue growth) into 2027+.

Sourced directly from the GEV Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (2026-07-22).

Contradictions
⚠ Contradiction 1 — When does Gas Power actually reach 20GW annualized output?

Statement A — Q1'26 call (2026-04-22), CEO Scott Strazik: "We now have installed over 280 new machines in our Gas Power factories and remain on track to reach 20 gigawatts of annualized output by March."

Statement B — same Q1'26 call, minutes later, CFO Ken Parks: "We expect higher second-half Gas Power revenue as we ship more gas turbines in the second half of the year and as we increase annual production capacity to approximately 20 gigawatts starting in midyear 2026."

Corroborating — Q2'26 call (2026-07-22), Scott Strazik: "We will make the jump from where we've been, which has been about three gigawatts of output a quarter to five gigawatts of output a quarter, starting in the third quarter... we will deliver that in the second half of the year, both in 3Q and 4Q on the 20 gigawatts annualized."

Statement A asserts the 20GW/year milestone was already reached "by March" — before the Q1'26 call even took place — flatly inconsistent with the CFO's "midyear 2026" framing on the same call, and further contradicted by Q2'26 commentary describing output still running at ~3GW/quarter (~12GW annualized) as of that call, with the jump to 5GW/quarter only beginning in Q3'26. If Statement A were true, Q2'26 output would already be running near 20GW annualized, not "three gigawatts a quarter."

⚠ Contradiction 2 — Was 80-100GW under contract an action trigger or just an "evaluation" point for capacity?

Statement A — Q2'25 call, Scott Strazik: "For us to really lean into the incremental capacity, I think we've got more work to do, both in proving out that we can deliver what we've already committed but then seeing that backlog growth more towards the 80 to 100 gigawatts versus where we think we'll be at the end of the year, which is 60 gigawatts."

Statement B — Q3'25 call, Scott Strazik, responding to an analyst paraphrasing the prior guidance back to him: "At the moment, I would say no... I wouldn't say that we've been saying we'll be comfortable to add capacity when we get to 80 to 100, we said we'll evaluate it at 80 to 100."

In Q2'25, management's own words tie "leaning into incremental capacity" directly to crossing the 80-100GW threshold — the marker is framed as the condition being waited on. One quarter later, management explicitly disputes that same framing, recasting the identical marker as merely a point to "evaluate," not act on. Note: GEV subsequently blew through this marker entirely (116GW under contract as of Q2'26), and the new "30GW by 2030" expansion is presented as incremental rather than as fulfillment of this earlier commitment.

⚠ Pattern (not scored as a contradiction) — Wind "orders clarity" perpetually six months away

Q1'26 call: "monitoring the outcome of Section 232 wind and solar tariffs, which could lead to more orders clarity in the second half of the year." Q2'26 call: "monitoring the outcome of 2-3-2 tariffs that impact wind development, which could lead to more orders clarity in the second half of the year."

Each instance is technically a fresh forward-looking statement about its own "second half," so this is not a direct logical contradiction — but it is a rolling deferral worth flagging. The promised clarity has moved from H2 2025 to H2 2026 without arriving, and U.S. onshore wind orders remain guided down low-double-digits throughout.

No further contradictions were found across the remaining transcripts (Q3'24, Q4'24) — segment growth, margin, and backlog figures in those earlier calls are consistent with the trajectory reported in later quarters.

Verified directly against all 8 GEV earnings-call transcripts on file (Q3'24-Q2'26).

Indirect read-throughs

Macro commentary. The dominant theme is a broad, international electricity-demand supercycle, not a narrow AI/data-center story: "Around the world, electricity demand is accelerating, driven by economic growth, grid modernization, electrification, data center expansion, and the need for more reliable, resilient power." Of the ~116GW under contract, management characterized ~80% as traditional utility/industrial customers vs. ~20% data centers — a useful corrective to the AI-capex-only narrative. Concrete international demand cited: Taiwan (>10GW of Heavy-Duty units on contract), Saudi Arabia, Qatar (new contracts this quarter), Brazil, Mexico (grid revitalization), and a pickup in Southeast Asia discussions.

Company-specific mentions. No direct competitors (Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Power, Vestas) were named on the call — flagging that absence rather than fabricating a comparison.

| Company / entity | Relationship to GEV | Read-through | |---|---|---| | Prolec GE | Subsidiary (wholly owned via 2025 acquisition) | Full ownership unlocked cross-border capacity pooling ($800M of U.S. transformer orders booked in H1 that couldn't be fulfilled under the prior JV); confirms the deal thesis is playing out in order flow, and implies incremental competitive pressure on independent North American transformer suppliers | | Robotech Automation | Small bolt-on acquisition (closed July 2026) | Signals continued appetite for tuck-in automation/productivity M&A to fund the "lean" capacity story without heavy new capex | | China XD Grid | Divestiture (remaining stake sold this quarter, ~$600M pre-tax proceeds) | Portfolio-simplification positive; confirms GEV continuing to exit non-strategic, non-controlled JVs | | Hyperscaler data-center customers (unnamed) | Customers (Electrification, SST/MV-UPS pipeline) | Data-center order book already >2x all of FY2025 by mid-year — evidence hyperscaler grid/power capex commitments are accelerating; two distinct unnamed hyperscalers co-developing first-of-a-kind SST hardware implies real engineering commitment, not just LOIs | | EPCs (unnamed) | Customer-adjacent / project-delivery constraint | Mixed — favorable for EPC-sector demand (their capacity is the binding constraint on SRA-to-order conversion), but a risk flag for GEV's own order-conversion timeline if EPC capacity doesn't keep pace |

Sourced from the GEV Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (2026-07-22); qualitative read-throughs, not independently verified financials.

Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id 197701), GE Vernova's Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (2026-07-22), and FMP consensus data (live pull, 2026-07-25).