Financial Trends -- 8/10
GEV is executing a powerful multi-year inflection from loss-making conglomerate to high-growth,
margin-expanding energy equipment leader. Total revenue grew +9% YoY in 2025 to $38.1B, EBITDA
margins expanded +260 bps to 8.4%, FCF more than doubled to $3.7B, and EPS swung from $5.58 to
$17.69 (+217%). Orders of $59B (+34% YoY) and backlog of $150B (+26% YoY) provide exceptional
forward visibility. Wind segment losses remain a drag (~$600M EBITDA loss) but are narrowing.
2026 guidance: $44-45B revenue, 11-13% EBITDA margin, $5.0-5.5B FCF. 2028 target: $56B+ revenue
at 20% EBITDA margins with cumulative $24B FCF.
Weight: 25%
FY25 Revenue
$38.1B
+9.0% YoY | Accelerating +390 bps
FY25 EBITDA Margin
8.4%
+260 bps YoY | Guided 11-13% in 2026
FY25 Diluted EPS
$17.69
+217% YoY | From $5.58
FY25 FCF
$3.7B
+118% YoY | 9.7% margin
Annual Financial Summary (FY ends December)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue ($M) | $33,006M | $29,654M | $33,239M | $34,935M | $38,068M |
| Rev YoY | — | -10.2% | +12.1% | +5.1% | +9.0% |
| Acceleration | — | — | +2,230 bps | -700 bps | +390 bps |
| Adj. EBITDA ($M) | $654M | ($428M) | $807M | $2,035M | $3,196M |
| EBITDA Margin | 2.0% | -1.4% | 2.4% | 5.8% | 8.4% |
| Margin YoY Change | — | -340 bps | +380 bps | +340 bps | +260 bps |
| Operating Income ($M) | ($884M) | ($2,881M) | ($923M) | $471M | $1,388M |
| Net Income ($M) | ($724M) | ($2,722M) | ($474M) | $1,559M | $4,879M |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | $5.58 | $17.69 |
| EPS YoY | — | — | — | — | +217% |
| Diluted Shares (M) | — | — | — | 278 | 276 |
Key trends -- annual
- Revenue inflected from -10% to +9%: From $29.7B trough (2022) to $38.1B (2025), driven by Power (+9%) and Electrification (+28%) while Wind contracted (-6%)
- EBITDA margin expanded from -1.4% to 8.4%: Five-year swing of +980 bps since 2022, with consistent expansion every year. Guided to 11-13% in 2026, 20% by 2028
- EPS massive inflection: From loss-making through 2023 to $5.58 (2024) to $17.69 (2025), a +217% YoY swing. Note Q4 2025 may include one-time items
- FCF doubled: $1.7B to $3.7B, with FCF margin expanding from 4.9% to 9.7%. Guided to $5.0-5.5B in 2026
- Share count declining: Diluted shares fell ~1% YoY (278M to 276M), with $3.6B returned to shareholders and $10B buyback authorized
Segment Revenue ($M, Annual)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power | $16,729M | $16,124M | $17,436M | $18,127M | $19,767M |
| Power YoY | — | -3.6% | +8.1% | +4.0% | +9.0% |
| Wind | $11,539M | $8,905M | $9,826M | $9,701M | $9,110M |
| Wind YoY | — | -22.8% | +10.3% | -1.3% | -6.1% |
| Electrification | $5,292M | $5,076M | $6,378M | $7,550M | $9,642M |
| Electrification YoY | — | -4.1% | +25.6% | +18.4% | +27.7% |
| Total | $33,006M | $29,654M | $33,239M | $34,935M | $38,068M |
Electrification is the standout: +28% YoY, from $5.3B (2021) to
$9.6B (2025). 2026 guidance of $13.5-14B implies ~45% growth (includes Prolec GE ~$3B,
~20% organic). Power accelerated from +4% to +9%, driven by gas turbine deliveries and services.
Gas Power alone grew +10.7% to $16B; Nuclear surged +24.3%. Wind continues to contract (-6.1%)
as offshore winds down and U.S. onshore remains soft.
Quarterly Revenue Trajectory ($M, 8 Quarters)
| Metric | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Rev ($M) | $7,260M | $8,204M | $8,913M | $10,558M | $8,032M | $9,111M | $9,969M | $10,956M |
| YoY | — | — | — | — | +10.6% | +11.1% | +11.9% | +3.8% |
Revenue growth accelerated through Q1-Q3 2025 (10-12% YoY) before
moderating to +3.8% in Q4 2025 due to lower Wind equipment deliveries and tough comps.
Not concerning given 2026 guidance of $44-45B (+16-18% growth), which includes Prolec GE
contributing ~$3B. Organic growth remains in the high single-digit to low double-digit range.
Segment EBITDA ($M) & Margins (Annual)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power EBITDA | $1,407M | $1,655M | $1,722M | $2,268M | $2,902M |
| Power Margin | 8.4% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 14.7% |
| Wind EBITDA | $176M | ($1,710M) | ($1,033M) | ($588M) | ($598M) |
| Wind Margin | 1.5% | -19.2% | -10.5% | -6.1% | -6.6% |
| Electrification EBITDA | ($461M) | ($164M) | $234M | $679M | $1,433M |
| Electrification Margin | -8.7% | -3.2% | 3.7% | 9.0% | 14.9% |
| Total Adj. EBITDA | $654M | ($428M) | $807M | $2,035M | $3,196M |
| Total EBITDA Margin | 2.0% | -1.4% | 2.4% | 5.8% | 8.4% |
Electrification margins expanded +590 bps to 14.9% -- from ($461M)
EBITDA in 2021 to $1.4B in 2025. Power margins at 14.7% (+220 bps YoY), guided to 16-18%
in 2026. Equipment backlog margin added $8B in 2025, more than prior 2 years combined.
By 2028 target: Power 22%, Electrification 17-19%.
Wind remains the persistent drag: ~($600M) annual EBITDA loss,
roughly flat YoY. Offshore charges (Vineyard Wind stop-work) offset onshore improvement.
Onshore wind is profitable at high single-digit margins but volume-constrained. Guided to
~($400M) in 2026 with improvement in H2. Critical customer-facing events down 50%+ YoY.
Operating Income, Net Income & EPS (Annual)
Operating income inflected positive in 2024 and nearly tripled
in 2025. Net income swung from ($474M) in 2023 to $4.9B in 2025. Q4 2025 EPS of ~$13.28
was unusually elevated (likely includes one-time items or tax benefits given 33.5% net income
margin in Q4). Full-year diluted EPS of $17.69 represents the TTM used in the 50.8x trailing P/E.
Orders ($B) and Backlog ($B)
Orders of $59B with book-to-bill of ~2.0x in Q4 2025. Total backlog
grew to ~$150B, up ~$31B YoY. Equipment backlog expanded to $64B (+50% YoY) with +6 pts
of margin expansion. Management expects to add at least $8B of incremental equipment margin in
2026. Electrification backlog surged +48% to $34.7B, driven by data center orders tripling
YoY to $2B+. Power backlog at $94.4B with gas turbines sold out through 2029-2030.
Free Cash Flow ($M)
Quarterly FCF ($M)
| Metric | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF ($M) | ($661M) | $821M | $968M | $572M | $975M | $194M | $732M | $1,809M |
FCF inflected positive in 2023 and has compounded aggressively:
$442M to $1.7B to $3.7B. All four quarters positive in 2025 (vs Q1 2024 negative).
Q4 2025 was an exceptionally strong $1.8B driven by down payments on record orders.
2026 FCF guidance is $5.0-5.5B. FCF margin expanded from -2.1% (2022) to 9.7% (2025).
Share Count & Capital Return
- Shares declining ~1% YoY (278M to 276M diluted), reflecting $3.6B returned to shareholders in 2025 including 8M+ shares repurchased
- Buyback authorization increased to $10B -- significant firepower for continued share count reduction. Dividend doubled for 2026
- No dilution concern: Share count trending down, no penalty triggered
Transcript Context (Q4 2025 Earnings Call)
Gas Turbine Demand: Gas power equipment backlog + SRAs grew
from 62 to 83 GW sequentially in Q4, targeting 100 GW by end of 2026. SRA pricing is 10-20 pts
above existing backlog, indicating significant margin expansion ahead. Heavy-duty gas turbine
orders of 41 units in Q4 (+70% YoY) and 63 aero units for the year.
Electrification Growth: Largest order quarter in Q4 2025
with $7.4B in orders (~2.5x revenue). Data center orders tripled YoY to $2B+. Prolec GE
acquisition closed Feb 2, 2026, adding ~$3B revenue and transformer capacity. Management sees
$150B addressable market vs ~$14B current revenue (~10% penetration).
Margin Visibility: Equipment backlog margin added $8B in
2025, more than prior 2 years combined. Total equipment backlog margin expanded 6 pts YoY.
Longer cycle times mean majority of higher-margin orders from 2024-2025 will not deliver until
2027+. By 2028 target: $56B+ revenue at 20% EBITDA margins with cumulative $24B FCF.
Penalty / Modifier Assessment
| Factor | Impact | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Negative FCF | 0 | $3.7B positive and growing rapidly |
| Dilution >10% | 0 | Shares declining ~1% YoY via buybacks |
| Rev growing but op income declining | 0 | Both revenue and operating income growing strongly |
| Debt growing faster than revenue | 0 | $2.6B Prolec debt issuance from $9B cash; below 1x gross debt/EBITDA |
Total penalty: 0 pts. No penalty modifiers triggered.
FCF positive, shares declining, operating income growing, debt manageable.
Score rationale
Score of 8/10 reflects strong and accelerating financial trends across revenue, margins, earnings, and FCF, supported by an exceptionally strong order/backlog position. The business is in the early-to-mid stages of a powerful multi-year earnings compounding cycle, with forward visibility that is among the best in industrials.
Positives (supports 8+):
- Revenue growth accelerating to +9% with clear path to mid-teens growth in 2026-2028
- EBITDA margin expanding +260 bps YoY with guide to 11-13% in 2026 and 20% by 2028
- FCF more than doubled to $3.7B with guide to $5.0-5.5B in 2026
- EPS inflected massively: $5.58 to $17.69 (+217% YoY)
- Orders of $59B (book-to-bill 1.6x) and $150B backlog provide exceptional visibility
- Equipment backlog margins expanding significantly (+6 pts YoY, +17 pts vs 2022)
- Electrification segment compounding: +28% revenue, +590 bps margin expansion
- Share count declining via buybacks, no dilution
- No penalty modifiers triggered
Negatives (prevents 9):
- Wind segment still losing ~$600M/yr EBITDA, with offshore wind a persistent drag
- Wind losses were worse than guided in 2025 due to government stop-work order
- Q4 2025 net income of $3.7B appears to include one-time items, making sustainable earnings power less clear
- Revenue growth in 2024 was modest (+5%) before reaccelerating in 2025
- Limited pre-2024 comparability as a standalone company (carve-out data)
Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id: 197701) and GEV earnings releases (Q4 2024 through Q4 2025). All financials in USD. Fiscal year ends December.