Financial Trends -- 9/10
Exceptionally strong, improving trajectory. Revenue re-accelerating (+16.3% YoY Q1'26) on gas-turbine
demand and grid / data-center electrification. A clean inflection from operating losses to expanding
profitability, adjusted-EBITDA margin up ~260 bps in FY25, strongly positive and accelerating free cash
flow (−$627M FY22 to +$3.71B FY25, guided $6.5–7.5B FY26), and a flat-to-declining share count with a
near-net-cash balance sheet. No penalty modifiers. Watch items: headline EPS distorted by one-time tax
items, the Q1'26 FCF/margin spike is partly working-capital driven, and standalone history is only ~2 years.
Weight: 25%
Margins
Expanding
Adj. EBITDA margin +260 bps FY25 | Positive
FCF
Accelerating
−$627M FY22 to +$3.71B FY25 | Strong
Share Count
Declining
280M to 272M | No dilution
Quarterly Revenue Trajectory ($M)
Revenue re-accelerating to +16.3% YoY in Q1'26.
Outside the soft Q4'25 print (a tough comp versus the Q4'24 equipment surge), the YoY rate is
clearly stepping up — driven by Power gas-turbine demand and Electrification (grid / data-center).
Full-year revenue growth accelerated from +5.1% (FY24) to +9.0% (FY25).
Gross Profit ($M)
Gross profit dollars grew +21.2% and gross margin expanded ~80 bps YoY
in Q1'26. Over two years gross margin has widened ~430 bps (14.5% FY23 to 19.8% FY25) as
high-margin Power and Electrification scale and loss-making Wind shrinks — a genuine mix-and-scale
margin story, not a one-off.
Annual Financial Summary (FY ends December)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue ($M) | $33,006M | $29,654M | $33,239M | $34,935M | $38,068M |
| Rev YoY | — | -10.2% | +12.1% | +5.1% | +9.0% |
| Adj. EBITDA ($M) | $654M | ($428M) | $807M | $2,035M | $3,196M |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 2.0% | -1.4% | 2.4% | 5.8% | 8.4% |
| Operating Income ($M) | ($884M) | ($2,881M) | ($923M) | $471M | $1,388M |
| WA Diluted Shares (M) | — | — | 274 | 278 | 276 |
Note on EPS. Q4'25 and Q1'26 diluted EPS are inflated by
large non-operating / tax items (most likely a deferred-tax-asset valuation-allowance release), so
EPS is not a clean fundamental signal here. Operating income, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow are
the trustworthy read — and all three inflected sharply positive. FY2021–FY2023 are carve-out /
predecessor-basis figures reported by GEV and Daloopa-cited.
Key trends
- Revenue re-accelerating: From $33.0B (FY21) through a −10.2% FY22 trough to $38.1B (FY25), with FY growth stepping up from +5.1% to +9.0% and Q1'26 at +16.3% YoY on Power and Electrification
- Clean profitability inflection: GAAP operating income swung from −$923M (FY23) to +$1,388M (FY25); adjusted EBITDA from −$428M (FY22) to +$3,196M (FY25)
- Margin expansion well beyond +100 bps: Adjusted-EBITDA margin +260 bps in FY25 alone (5.8% to 8.4%) and roughly +600 bps off the FY22 trough
- Share count flat-to-declining: ~274–280M with no meaningful dilution; recent quarters tick down (280M Q4'24 to 272M Q1'26) as GEV executes its buyback
Segment Revenue ($M, quarterly)
| Segment | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power | $4,455M | $4,206M | $5,431M | $4,423M | $4,758M | $4,838M | $5,749M | $4,971M | +12.4% |
| Electrification | $1,721M | $1,876M | $2,347M | $1,879M | $2,201M | $2,601M | $2,961M | $2,959M | +57.5% |
| Wind | $2,062M | $2,891M | $3,109M | $1,850M | $2,245M | $2,647M | $2,368M | $1,432M | -22.6% |
Mix is improving in quality. High-margin Power (+12.4% YoY)
and Electrification (+57.5% YoY) — the gas-turbine and grid / data-center beneficiaries — are
accelerating, while loss-making Wind (−22.6% YoY) is shrinking. That is a positive for blended
margins even before scale leverage. Segment figures reused from the Q1'26 earnings review
(originally Daloopa-cited).
Free Cash Flow ($M, Annual)
FCF positive and strongly accelerating — the single strongest element
of the profile. −$627M (FY22) to +$442M to +$1,701M to +$3,710M, with FY25 more than
doubling. FY26 is guided to $6.5–7.5B. Note the Q1'26 quarterly FCF of $4,791M (51% of revenue)
reflects seasonal advance-payment / working-capital inflows tied to record orders ($18.3B, 2.0x
book-to-bill), not a sustainable run-rate.
Watch Items -- Not Operational Deterioration
| Watch Item | Detail | Penalty |
|---|---|---|
| EPS Distortion | Q4'25 and Q1'26 diluted EPS inflated by large one-time tax items (likely a deferred-tax-asset valuation-allowance release); EPS is not the clean signal — operating income, EBITDA, and FCF are | None |
| Q1'26 FCF Spike | The 51%-margin Q1'26 FCF is partly working-capital / order-timing driven and overstates the sustainable run-rate; treated as non-recurring | None |
| Short Standalone History | FY21–FY23 are carve-out / predecessor-basis; genuine standalone public history is only ~2 years since the April 2024 GE spin-off | None |
No penalty modifiers apply. FCF is positive and growing;
share count is flat-to-down; operating income is rising sharply alongside revenue; and debt only
just appeared (~$2.8B of senior notes issued in Q1'26 for the Prolec GE acquisition, still under 1x
gross debt / EBITDA), so it is not growing faster than revenue for 3+ consecutive quarters.
Score Rationale
Score of 9/10 reflects an operating profile that maps to the rubric's "10" anchor on every axis. Held at 9 rather than a perfect 10 for three honest caveats.
Supports 9/10:
- Revenue YoY accelerating to +16.3% in Q1'26 on Power gas-turbine demand and Electrification (grid / data-center)
- Clean inflection from operating losses to expanding profitability (GAAP operating income −$923M FY23 to +$1,388M FY25)
- Margins expanding well beyond the +100 bps threshold (adjusted-EBITDA margin +260 bps in FY25, ~+600 bps off the FY22 trough)
- FCF positive and strongly accelerating (−$627M FY22 to +$3.71B FY25; guided $6.5–7.5B FY26)
- Share count flat-to-declining, buyback-driven, no dilution; near-net-cash balance sheet
Held below a perfect 10 (no penalty):
- Headline EPS distorted by one-time tax items -- not a clean fundamental signal
- Q1'26 FCF / margin spike partly working-capital / order-timing driven -- overstates the run-rate
- FY21–FY23 are carve-out / predecessor financials -- standalone history is only ~2 years
Data sourced from Daloopa. Fiscal year ends December 31. All financials in USD. GEV spun off from GE on 2024-04-02.