GE Vernova — Q1 2026 Earnings Preview
Reports April 22, 2026 (BMO) · Prepared April 6, 2026
Earnings Date
Apr 22, 2026
Before Market Open
Consensus Revenue
~$9.29B
+15.6% YoY
Consensus EPS
$1.94
+113% vs. Q1 2025 ($0.91)
Total Backlog
$150B
Up 25%+ YoY
Trailing P/E
50.8x
Forward P/E: 62.5x
FY2026 FCF Guide
$5.0–5.5B
+35–49% YoY
Gas Turbine Backlog
83 GW contracted
Target 100 GW by YE2026
52-Week Range
$252–$948
Up ~256% YoY
Executive Summary
GE Vernova enters Q1 2026 with extraordinary momentum: $150B backlog (+25%+ YoY), a gas turbine
super-cycle, surging Electrification demand, and the just-completed Prolec GE acquisition. The company
raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $44–45B (from $41–42B) and FCF to $5.0–5.5B at Q4 2025 earnings
(January 28, 2026). Management has raised guidance at every earnings call since the April 2024 IPO.
Bull: Gas pricing 10–20 pts higher in SRAs vs. backlog. Electrification delivering 20%+ organic growth.
Prolec GE adds ~$3B revenue. $64B equipment backlog with +6 pts margin expansion drives multi-year earnings ramp.
Bear: Q1 is seasonally weakest (lowest services outage volume). Wind losses $300–400M in Q1 alone.
Tariff headwinds ($300–400M annual) hit hardest in H1. At 50x trailing P/E, expectations are elevated.
Last Earnings: Q4 2025 (January 28, 2026)
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10,956M | $10,315M est. | +6.2% beat |
| Orders | $22,192M | — | +65% YoY, 2x book-to-bill |
| Total Backlog | $150.2B | — | Equipment backlog +50% YoY to $64B |
| Adj. EBITDA | $1,158M | — | 10.6% margin |
| FCF | $1,809M | — | Record quarter |
| FY2026 Rev Guide | $44–45B raised | was $41–42B | Prolec added |
| FY2026 FCF Guide | $5.0–5.5B raised | was $4.5–5.0B | +35–49% vs. FY2025 |
FY2026 Guidance (vs. FY2025 Actual)
| Metric | FY2025 Actual | FY2026 Guide | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$38.1B | $44–45B | +16–18% | Includes ~$3B Prolec |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | ~8.4% | 11–13% | +260–460 bps | |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.7B | $5.0–5.5B | +35–49% | |
| Power Rev Growth (Organic) | +10% | +16–18% | Accelerating | |
| Power EBITDA Margin | 14.7% | 16–18% | +130–330 bps | |
| Electrification Revenue | ~$9.6B | $13.5–14.0B | +41–46% | +20% organic + ~$3B Prolec |
| Electrification EBITDA Margin | ~14.9% | 17–19% | +210–410 bps | |
| Wind EBITDA Losses | ~$(597)M | ~$(400)M | Improving | H2 skewed improvement |
| By 2028 Revenue Target | — | >$56B | Low-teens CAGR | |
| By 2028 EBITDA Margin | — | 20% | — |
Segment Performance — 8 Quarters
Power Segment
| Metric | Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $4,035 | $4,455 | $4,206 | $5,431 | $4,423 | $4,758 | $4,838 | $5,749 |
| EBITDA ($M) | $345 | $613 | $499 | $810 | $508 | $778 | $645 | $971 |
| EBITDA Margin | 8.6% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 14.9% | 11.5% | 16.4% | 13.3% | 16.9% |
| Orders ($M) | $5,029 | $4,975 | $5,202 | $6,552 | $6,247 | $7,088 | $7,807 | $11,693 |
Wind Segment
| Metric | Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $1,639 | $2,062 | $2,891 | $3,109 | $1,850 | $2,245 | $2,647 | $2,368 |
| EBITDA ($M) | ($173M) | ($117M) | ($317M) | $19M | ($146M) | ($165M) | ($61M) | ($225M) |
| EBITDA Margin | -10.6% | -5.7% | -11.0% | 0.6% | -7.9% | -7.3% | -2.3% | -9.5% |
Electrification Segment
| Metric | Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $1,651 | $1,790 | $1,928 | $2,181 | $1,879 | $2,201 | $2,601 | $2,961 |
| EBITDA ($M) | $66 | $129 | $201 | $283 | $214 | $322 | $393 | $504 |
| EBITDA Margin | 4.0% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 14.6% | 15.1% | 17.0% |
Guidance Evolution Since IPO — Consistent Raise Pattern
| Guidance Point | Revenue | EBITDA Margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 at IPO (Apr 2024) | $34–35B | 5–7% | $0.7–1.1B |
| FY2025 raised (Q2 2024) | $34–35B | 5–7% | $1.3–1.7B |
| FY2025 raised (Q4 2024) | $36–37B | 5–7% | $2.0–2.5B |
| FY2025 raised (Q2 2025) | $36–37B | 8–9% | $3.0–3.5B |
| FY2025 Actual | ~$38.1B | ~8.4% | $3.7B |
| FY2026 Guide (Q4 2025) | $44–45B | 11–13% | $5.0–5.5B |
Management Tone Assessment
| Segment | Tone | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Power | Very High Confidence | Pricing "continuing to strengthen" with "another 10 to 20 points" in SRAs vs. backlog. Gas equipment backlog surged 62→83 GW in Q4. Target 100 GW by YE2026. "Intensity of discussions...very intense." |
| Electrification | Strong Momentum | Revenue $5B (2022) → $13.5–14.0B guided (2026). Q4 orders 2.5x revenue. Data center equipment orders tripled YoY ($2B+ in 2025). Prolec GE closed Feb 2, adds $3B + distribution transformer capacity. |
| Wind | Candid About Challenges | Losses ~$600M in 2025 vs. ~$400M expected (Vineyard Wind). Expects ~$400M losses in 2026 with H2 improvement. Q1 alone ~$300–400M losses. Only 30% of shipments in H1. |
| Nuclear | Long-Term Conviction | "May take a while before discussions translate to announcements." US-Japan $40B SMR deal (Mar 2026). TVA filed first SMR construction permit for BWRX-300. |
News Flow — February to April 2026
| Date | Event | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | Prolec GE acquisition closed | Adds ~$3B revenue, 5 transformer factories. $2.6B debt funded. Below 1x gross debt/EBITDA. |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Rothschild & Co Redburn: Sell → Buy, PT $560 → $1,100 | Major analyst reversal. |
| Mar 18, 2026 | CEO at BofA Global Industrials Conference | Reiterated positioning in long-cycle power markets. |
| Mar 19, 2026 | US-Japan $40B SMR Deal announced at White House | GEV Hitachi BWRX-300 SMRs for 3 GW in TN/AL. Regulatory approval still required. |
| Late Mar 2026 | TVA files first SMR construction permit for BWRX-300 | Regulatory milestone. Long lead time. |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Barclays raises PT $849 → $993, Overweight maintained | Continued analyst upgrades. |
| Q1 2026 | Microsoft/Chevron AI data center power exclusivity with GEV turbines | Additional large-scale power contract. |
What to Watch on April 22
1. Gas turbine orders:
Can Q1 maintain acceleration? Progress toward 100 GW contract target?
2. Electrification with Prolec:
First full quarter including Prolec. Does ~$2.96B + Prolec materialize?
3. Electrification margin:
16–17% guided. Any integration cost headwinds from Prolec?
4. Wind Q1 losses:
$300–400M guided. Where in the range? Vineyard Wind resolution status?
5. Tariff commentary:
Any incremental headwinds from April 2026 tariff actions vs. original $300–400M estimate?
6. Nuclear pipeline:
Any new SMR contract announcements post-US-Japan deal?
7. Capital allocation:
Progress on $10B buyback. Dividend cadence update.
8. FY2026 guide reiteration:
Any upward bias to $44–45B / 11–13% EBITDA margin guidance?
Source: Daloopa, GE Vernova IR, Barclays, Utility Dive, Windpower Monthly