GE Vernova — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Setup in one line
GE Vernova enters Q2 on raised FY2026 guidance (revenue $44.5–45.5B, adj. EBITDA margin 12–14%, FCF $6.5–7.5B) — its second raise in four months — with the Street parked at the high end ($45.4B). The company does not guide consolidated quarterly revenue or EPS; it raises the full-year and gives segment pointers. Q2 is deliberately a lighter, 2H-weighted quarter (Wind loss guided $(200)–(300)M, Power YoY margin expansion decelerating by design, gas capacity benefit not until Q3), so the real signals are gas GW booked (10–15 GW guided), pricing (+10–20 pts $/kW), data-center Electrification orders, and whether the FY guide gets raised again. Two live watch items: management turned visibly more cautious on Wind conversion and data-center permitting at June conferences (with a Wind-CEO insider sale), and the emerging bear frame that gas capacity is ~90% contracted through 2030.
Date: GE Vernova's own IR release confirms Q2 2026 results on Wed, July 22, 2026 (before market open), webcast 7:30 a.m. ET (CEO Scott Strazik, CFO Ken Parks) — matches the repo earnings calendar. S&P Global (primary source) was not connected this run; date confirmed via company press release. Only GE Aerospace and ABB (both Jul 16) report before GEV; most US peers (NEE Jul 24, VRT ~Jul 23, PWR Jul 30) come after.
GE Vernova is a leaders-stay-leaders play on the power-supercycle: the #1 global gas-turbine franchise (turbines effectively sold out through 2029, slots booked to 2031), a fast-growing grid-Electrification business riding data-center demand, and a Wind segment that remains the lone drag. The Q2 2026 print (2026-07-22, BMO) is set up as a structurally light, 2H-weighted quarter against a rising, not defended, guide — the classic GEV guide-low / deliver-high pattern.
Growth trajectory — accelerating and de-risked. The last print (Q1 2026, 2026-04-22) was a broad beat: revenue $9.34B (+16.3% YoY), adj. EBITDA $896M (margin 9.6%, +390bps YoY), orders $18.3B (+80% YoY, ~2.0x book-to-bill), and free cash flow $4.79B — FCF alone in Q1 exceeded all of FY2025's $3.7B. Management raised FY2026 guidance and pulled its $200B backlog target forward a full year (to 2027 from 2028). Shares jumped +13.75% the same session.
Key watch items into Q2 2026:
- Guidance: GEV does not issue quarterly revenue/EPS ranges. The operative bar is the standing FY2026 guide (raised at Q1) plus segment pointers: Electrification Q2 revenue $3.3–3.5B, Wind revenue down mid-teens with a $(200)–(300)M EBITDA loss, Power not explicitly guided for Q2. The real event is whether the FY guide gets raised a second time.
- Gas orders, GW-under-contract & pricing (the thesis): management guided 10–15 GW booked in Q2 and ≥110 GW under contract by year-end (from 100 GW), with 2026 orders priced +10–20 pts $/kW above Q4'25. April Power equipment orders alone already matched all of Q1 in value — Q2 orders likely land at the high end.
- Data-center Electrification momentum: Q1 DC orders (~$2.4B) exceeded all of FY2025; a third consecutive record with Electrification margin ≥18% validates the "string-of-pearls" attach story.
- Wind (the downside swing): management got more cautious on U.S. onshore conversion at June conferences; watch that the Q2 EBITDA loss holds inside the $(200)–(300)M guide and does not widen off Q1's -$382M.
Classification: CONSERVATIVE (sandbagged) guider. Two FY26 raises in four months, every Q1'26 profit pointer beat, and Street sitting at the high end of the FY26 revenue range. Setup favors another beat-and-raise — but note the EPS record itself is mixed/lumpy (2 beats / 2 misses last 4 quarters), so the durable, higher-conviction upside is in orders, backlog, pricing and FCF, not headline EPS.
How to read GEV "guidance": GEV guides annually (full-year revenue, adjusted-EBITDA margin, FCF, plus by-segment revenue growth and segment EBITDA margin) and layers in quarter-ahead segment pointers. It does not issue quarterly EPS/revenue point guidance. So there is no formal Q2 guide to parse — the print is measured against the standing FY guide, the Q2 segment pointers, and the KPIs the Street tracks.
| Guidance item | Raised guide (current) | Prior guide | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 revenue | $44.5–45.5B | $44.0–45.0B | Street $45.4B sits at/above the high end — market models another raise |
| FY2026 adj. EBITDA margin | 12–14% | 11–13% | Implies adj. EBITDA ~$5.3–6.4B (vs FY25 ~$3.2B / 8.4%) |
| FY2026 free cash flow | $6.5–7.5B | $5.0–5.5B | Raised ~$1.75B at midpoint on order-driven down-payments; lumpy |
| Electrification Q2 revenue | $3.3–3.5B | — | The only explicit Q2 revenue pointer; margin "modestly above" Q1's 17.8% |
| Wind Q2 (rev / EBITDA loss) | −mid-teens / $(200)–(300)M | — | Known drag; watch it holds inside the range (Q1 was $(382)M) |
| Power Q2 | Not guided | — | FY +16–18% organic; Q2 YoY margin expansion < Q1's +500bps (outage timing) |
| Consolidated Q2 EPS / revenue | Not guided | — | Positive FCF guided for Q2; no EPS guide (company policy) |
The conservatism engine (FY2025 walk): GEV guided FY2025 revenue to an initial $36–37B with $2.0–2.5B FCF, raised through the year, and printed ~$38.07B revenue / ~8.4% adj. EBITDA margin / $3.7B FCF — beating the original revenue high end by >$1B and topping the raised FCF range. FY2026 is running the same script: two raises already (Dec'25 ex-Prolec $41–42B → add-Prolec $44–45B → Q1'26 $44.5–45.5B), with the demand cushion enormous (orders +80% YoY, ~2x book-to-bill, backlog $163B, gas sold out through 2029).
Consensus caveat: the FMP-reported FY2026 consensus "EBITDA" of ~$10.1B is not comparable to company adj. EBITDA — it appears contaminated by ~$4.5B of one-time Q1'26 Prolec M&A gains that GEV excludes. The company's 12–14% margin on ~$45B implies adj. EBITDA of only ~$5.3–6.4B. Do NOT compare the guide to $10.1B. FY26 consensus EPS ~$28.64 (note the FY26 > FY27 anomaly flagged as an analyst-count/timing mix — treat near-term EPS with care).
3a. Current quarter (Q2 2026) — segment pointers vs. Q2 2025 comp
GEV gives no consolidated quarterly guide; columns show the Q2'26 segment pointer, the prior-year comp, and the implied YoY. Q2'25 actuals are Daloopa-cited.
| Metric | Q2'25 actual (comp) | Q2'26 guide / pointer | Implied YoY | Framing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electrification revenue | $2,201M | $3.3–3.5B | +50% to +59% | Incl. ~$0.75B Prolec; margin "modestly above" Q1's 17.8% |
| Power revenue | $4,758M | not guided (~$5.47–5.57B impl.) | +15% to +17% | FY +16–18%; Q2 below FY rate (2H-weighted outages) |
| Wind revenue | $2,245M | down mid-teens (~$1.90–1.93B) | −13% to −17% | Structural drag; ~70% of onshore shipments are 2H |
| Total revenue (implied) | $9,111M | ~$10.7–11.0B | ~+17% to +20% | Not company-guided; illustrative sum of segment mids |
| Adj. EBITDA / margin | $770M / 8.5% | ~$1.0B / ~11% (impl.) | ~+250–300bps | H2-weighted; Q4 is the peak by design |
| Wind EBITDA loss | ~$(350)M | $(200)–(300)M | loss narrowing YoY | Watch vs Q1'26's $(382)M |
Interpretation: implied Q2'26 is a materially stronger quarter than Q2'25 (~+17–20% revenue, ~+250–300bps margin) — but front-loaded by Electrification (Prolec + organic) and Power volume/price, with Wind still a drag. Do not straight-line Q1's strength into Q2: management pre-signaled a softer 1H shape (gas capacity steps to ~20 GW annualized only at midyear, benefit lands Q3+; ~70% of onshore Wind shipments are 2H). A clean Q2 "beat" is more about orders/backlog momentum and pricing confirmation than headline EBITDA.
3b. Historical quarterly KPI trend (Daloopa) — the numbers behind the thesis
| Metric | Q1'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total orders ($M) | 10,152 | 22,192 | 18,279 | +80% YoY; ~2.0x book-to-bill |
| Gas turbine orders (GW) | 7.1 | 10.2 | 8.1 | Elevated; SRAs building on top |
| GT units shipped | 19 | 21 | 25 | +32% YoY, H2-weighted |
| GT GW shipped | 3.0 | 3.1 | 4.2 | Capacity ramp visible |
| Power backlog ($B) | 76.3 | 94.4 | 99.7 | +31% YoY |
| Electrification backlog ($B) | 25.5 | 34.7 | 42.4 | +66% YoY (incl. Prolec) |
| Wind backlog ($B) | 22.2 | 21.6 | 21.3 | Flat/declining — the drag |
| Power segment EBITDA ($M) | 508 | 971 | 811 | Margin +500bps to 16.3% |
| Electrification EBITDA ($M) | 214 | 504 | 528 | Margin +590bps to 17.8% |
| Wind segment EBITDA ($M) | −146 | −226 | −382 | Widening loss; H2 recovery expected |
Interpretation: the two engines are inflecting together — Power EBITDA margin stepped +500bps to 16.3% and Electrification +590bps to 17.8% while their backlogs grew +31% and +66% YoY. Gas-turbine shipments are ramping (25 units / 4.2 GW, +32% YoY) toward ~20 GW annualized by midyear. Wind is the mirror image: backlog flat-to-down and the EBITDA loss widening to $(382)M — the one line the market needs to see contained inside the $(200)–(300)M Q2 guide.
3c. FQ+1 (Q3 2026) and FY+1 (FY2026 / FY2027) — mostly consensus
GEV gives only qualitative quarterly cadence (2H-weighted, Q4 the peak). FY2026 is the operative full-year guide (raised at Q1); FY2027 is consensus-only.
| Period | Revenue (guide / cons.) | Adj. EBITDA / margin | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 (FQ+1) | n/a (not guided) | n/a | Gas capacity benefit begins to show; productivity from new machines/workers; ramp toward Q4 peak |
| FY2026 (guide) | $44.5–45.5B gd · $45.4B cons. | ~$5.3–6.4B / 12–14% | Street above midpoint; FCF $6.5–7.5B; room for a 2nd raise |
| FY2027 (cons.) | n/a (clean figure not located) | — | Note FY26>FY27 EPS anomaly (analyst-count/timing mix); treat near-term EPS with care |
FY2026 segment guide (current, post-Q1'26): Power +16–18% organic rev / EBITDA margin 17–19% (raised); Electrification rev $14.0–14.5B / margin 18–20% (raised, incl. ~$3.0B Prolec); Wind rev down low-double-digits / EBIT loss ~$(400)M; Corporate cost $450–500M; tariff net impact $250–350M (held). Other KPI guides: 10–15 GW booked in Q2, ≥110 GW under contract by YE, gas capacity ~20 GW annualized by mid-2026, $200B backlog target pulled forward to 2027.
The setup in one paragraph: management enters Q2 on a guide it raised in April, with very high confidence in Gas Power pricing and Electrification growth and a credible (if lumpy) FCF story. On the earnings calls the tone has been consistently confident and improving — Q4'25 "pumped up about the company we are creating," Q1'26 "the growth is just starting…no company better positioned," with the $200B backlog target pulled forward and pricing conviction rising. That is an unambiguously constructive on-call posture.
The key change since guidance — a tone gap. At June industry events, CEO Strazik "struck a cautious tone on wind and data-center demand," flagging state-level pushback on new data centers and tariff uncertainty making the large wind pipeline hard to convert — a demand-side caveat absent from the April call. It was reinforced by the Wind CEO (Victor Abate) selling ~$4.6M of stock (~72% of his direct stake) on June 3. The guidance-level narrative is intact and confident, but management has been actively lowering the temperature on the two softest areas (Wind conversion, data-center permitting). Watch Q2 for whether the confident call tone or the cautious conference tone prevails — a defensive re-tone on data-center demand would be the most thesis-relevant negative.
Management-quality read: a high-quality profile per house lens — guidance accuracy (hits/beats what it guides), clear measurable promises (backlog margin dollars, 20 GW capacity, +10–20 pt pricing), and C-suite stability (Strazik/Parks intact since spin). The one credibility ding is the FY25 Wind miss (~$600M loss vs ~$400M target), but it was a clearly-attributed exogenous event (a government offshore stop-work order) that management flagged proactively.
| Metric / driver | Confidence | Evidence from management |
|---|---|---|
| Gas Power demand & pricing | Very high | Orders priced +10–20 pts $/kW; April Power orders alone matched all of Q1; ≥110 GW YE target; $200B backlog pulled to 2027 |
| Electrification growth & margin | Very high | Source of the entire FY26 revenue raise; Q1 margin 17.8% (+590bps); DC orders in Q1 > all of FY2025 |
| Free cash flow | High | Raised ~$1.75B at midpoint; Q1 FCF $4.79B > FY25 total. Caveat: down-payment driven, lumpy |
| Power margin expansion pace | Moderate (managed down) | Guided YoY margin expansion < Q1's +500bps "given timing of planned outages" |
| Wind | Low / defensive | Q2 rev down mid-teens; loss $(200)–(300)M; "still difficult to call an inflection in U.S. orders" |
| Nuclear / SMR timing | High progress / low near-term P&L | Darlington basemat imminent; Clinch River license "as soon as 2026"; but a next-decade earnings story |
What to listen for on the call (tone tells):
(1) Is the FY2026 guide raised a second time (revenue / EBITDA margin / FCF)? (2) Q2 gas GW booked vs the 10–15 GW guide and any move in the ≥110 GW YE target. (3) Confirmation the Q2 order book reflects the +10–20 pt $/kW step-up. (4) A third consecutive data-center Electrification order record and margin holding ≥18%. (5) Does the June conference caution on Wind conversion / data-center permitting resurface on the call? (6) Any first framework-agreement signing (30–35 in negotiation, none closed).
Post-guidance updates (since 2026-04-22): constructive on balance. Commercial wins include the HA fleet passing 4M operating hours, a Vietnam EVN gas order (Quang Trach II LNG), a Microsoft/Chevron "Project Kilby" 2.67 GW data-center anchor, a BWRX-300 SMR valve-supply deal, and a $1.75B-backed Joulent/Microsoft data-center JV. Trade press frames turbines sold out to 2029, slots to 2031. Offsetting: the June-conference caution + Wind-CEO insider sale, a May 28 BNP Paribas Exane downgrade to Neutral arguing gas capacity is ~90% contracted through 2030 (limiting order-surprise room), and a Jefferies valuation-driven PT trim. No guidance withdrawal, no CEO/CFO change, no delayed release — no hard pre-earnings red flags.
| Catalyst | What consensus / mgmt expects Q2'26 | Signal to watch | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gas GW under contract | 10–15 GW booked in Q2; ≥110 GW under contract by YE (from 8.1 GW GT orders in Q1) | Q2 GW booked; YE target move; SRA conversion (43→56 GW) | Positive |
| Order pricing ($/kW) | 2026 orders priced +10–20 pts on $/kW vs Q4'25; step-up "cuts through" in Q2 orders | Confirmation the Q2 book reflects the pricing step-up; equipment-backlog margin | Positive |
| Data-center Electrification orders | Continued strong DC orders (Q1 ~$2.4B > all of FY2025); backlog $42.4B rising | A 2nd/3rd record quarter; margin holding ≥18% | Positive |
| 2nd guidance raise | Street watching for another rev/EBITDA/FCF raise given April order strength | FY revenue / margin / FCF range moves; segment margin bumps | Base case + |
| Framework agreements (multi-year GT) | ~30–35 in negotiation; none closed to date; ≥110 GW target assumes few close | Any first signing = large discrete backlog event | Upside optionality |
| Clinch River NRC SMR permit | NRC staff recommended the construction permit (~Jul 1); license "as soon as 2026" | A dated 2026 permit; up-to-$40B US–Japan GVH SMR framework | Long-dated + |
| Section 232 wind/solar tariffs | Polysilicon 232 decision ~early Aug; wind-turbine investigation ongoing → "orders clarity in H2" | Ruling direction; net FY tariff impact holding $250–350M | Two-sided |
| Wind EBITDA loss | Q2 loss guided $(200)–(300)M; Q1 was $(382)M | Loss trending worse than guide; onshore orders failing to inflect | Downside watch |
Bull case
Q2 gas bookings land at the high end (toward 15 GW), the +10–20 pt pricing shows in the order book, a third record data-center Electrification quarter keeps margin ≥18%, FCF turns positive, and management raises the FY guide a second time — possibly with a first framework-agreement signing as discrete upside.
Bear case
Wind loss widens beyond the $(200)–(300)M guide, the data-center permitting caution from June resurfaces, gas bookings look ordinary against the BNP "~90% already contracted through 2030" frame, and the FY guide is merely reaffirmed — a "fine but no upgrade" print that disappoints a Street already at the high end.
Ex-earnings newsflow since the Q1 report (2026-04-22), most recent first. The dominant theme is order breadth (gas + electrification + selective wind) and pricing power; the secondary theme is a bullish-with-dispersion sell-side backdrop. Nothing thesis-negative surfaced beyond the June-conference caution captured in Section 4.
| Date | Item | Earnings read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 2026 | Joulent secures $1.75B from National Grid; GEV/Joulent JV to supply multi-GW power for Microsoft data centers | Positions GEV deeper in the hyperscaler power stack beyond equipment — potential behind-the-meter/recurring exposure. Reinforces the data-center demand vector. |
| Jun 27, 2026 | CNBC: "How GE Vernova builds the turbines powering the AI boom" — sold out to 2029, orders to 2031 | High-profile validation of the supercycle and slot scarcity; supports the pricing-power/conservative-guide thesis. |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Vietnam EVN order: 2× 9HA.02 + 2× H78 generators for Quang Trach II LNG (>1.6 GW, COD 2030) | Confirms the Vietnam LNG pipeline Strazik defended on the Q1 call; international gas-order breadth. |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Turbines to anchor 2.67 GW Microsoft/Chevron "Project Kilby" TX data-center plant (20-yr PPA, first power late 2028) | Flagship AI-power reference win; behind-the-meter gas — a datapoint on demand durability. |
| Jun 17, 2026 | GE Vernova Hitachi & Velan to supply reactor isolation valves for BWRX-300 SMR projects (Europe) | Supply-chain build-out for BWRX-300; de-risks European SMR delivery. Incremental, not yet revenue. |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Launches 3.8 MW–154m onshore turbine; wins 100 MW Powerica order (Gujarat, deliveries Q4'26) | Modest bright spot for the beleaguered Wind segment after the cautious conference tone; signals onshore stabilization. |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Bernstein conference: Strazik cautious on wind & data-center demand; Wind CEO sells ~$4.6M stock | The key negative tone shift vs the April call (state-level data-center pushback) + a pre-earnings insider-sale yellow flag. Watch whether it resurfaces on the call. |
| May 28, 2026 | BNP Paribas Exane downgrade to Neutral (gas capacity ~90% contracted through 2030) | The emerging bear frame: the beat-on-orders playbook may be maturing — market increasingly needs pricing and framework-conversion surprises, not just volume. |
| May 26, 2026 | HA gas-turbine fleet surpasses 4M commercial operating hours (128 units, 21 countries) | Reliability/scale proof point for the flagship platform; supports installed-base services annuity and pricing power. |
Read-through: newsflow corroborates the thesis — order momentum across gas (Vietnam), data-center (Project Kilby, Joulent/Microsoft JV) and even selective onshore Wind (Powerica), plus CNBC validation of slot scarcity and pricing. The two-sided items are sentiment, not fundamentals: a bullish-with-dispersion sell-side (Bernstein Outperform initiation vs BNP downgrade / Jefferies valuation trim). Per the sentiment-inversion lens, consensus is already broadly Buy, so the durable edge is management's pricing/framework-conversion conviction that the BNP bear frame doubts — the classic "management is the contrarian" setup to test at the print.
GE Vernova is not a clean "consistent beater" on the metric the Street tracks — adjusted EPS: the record is mixed/lumpy, roughly a 50% beat rate over the last 4 quarters (2 beats / 2 misses), with beat magnitude compressed and choppy. The nuance that matters: GEV is a beat-and-raise story on revenue, orders, adj. EBITDA and FCF, but headline EPS is lumpy because of (a) Wind-segment losses/charges and (b) large one-time items that distort GAAP EPS.
Data-history caveat: GEV was spun from GE on April 2, 2024, so it has only ~8 reported quarters as a standalone public company — a true 12-quarter analysis is not possible (no pre-spin standalone consensus). Below covers the available window (Q4'24 → Q1'26, 6 quarters with usable consensus). GAAP diluted EPS is distorted by one-time gains (Q4'25 $13.39, Q1'26 $17.44 vs adjusted ~$2), so beat/miss is measured on adjusted EPS (the Street number).
Reference heatmap — surprise % vs consensus by quarter (green = beat, darker = bigger; red = miss, darker = bigger; grey = no clean consensus):
| Metric | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adj. EPS surprise | −27.0 | beat* | +20.8 | −10.4 | −9.7 | +6.7 |
| Revenue surprise | −1.3 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.5 |
| Quarter | Consensus EPS | Actual (adj.) EPS | Surprise | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | ~$2.37 | ~$1.73 | −27.0% | Miss |
| Q1 2025 | ~$0.45 * | beat * | large (noisy) | Beat * |
| Q2 2025 | $1.54 | $1.86 | +20.8% | Beat |
| Q3 2025 | $1.83 | $1.64 | −10.4% | Miss |
| Q4 2025 | $3.09 | $2.79 | −9.7% | Miss |
| Q1 2026 | $1.93 | $2.06 | +6.7% | Beat |
| Beat/miss stat | Available history (6 qtrs) | Last 4 quarters |
|---|---|---|
| Adj. EPS beat rate | ~40–50% | 50% (2 of 4) |
| EPS surprise trend | compressed / choppy | +20.8 → −10.4 → −9.7 → +6.7 |
| Revenue (where clean) | tight / in-line | −1.3% (Q4'24) / +0.5% (Q1'26) |
| Orders / FCF surprise skew | consistently high | Q1'26 FCF $4.79B; orders +80% |
Pattern verdict — mixed on EPS, beat-and-raise on cash/orders. Do not underwrite an automatic EPS beat: GEV missed adjusted EPS in 2 of the last 4 quarters and beat magnitude has compressed to single digits, with Wind losses and GAAP one-time noise the swing factors. The higher-conviction, more reliable positives are revenue (tight/in-line), orders, and FCF, where the surprise skew has been consistently to the upside — even in EPS-miss quarters, orders and cash ran ahead and triggered guidance raises. Into Q2'26, watch Wind on the EPS line and orders/FCF + any guidance raise as the more probable positive catalyst.