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WY

Weyerhaeuser

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Earnings

2026Q1 Review (Claude)  ·  2026Q2 Preview

WY | Earnings Preview — FY2026 Q2

The growth trajectory is a cyclical trough-and-turn, not a demand recovery. Adjusted EBITDA has climbed from the $140M Q4'25 trough to $308M in Q1'26, and the implied Q2 walk lands at ~$255–288M — down sequentially only because the SLS easement rolls off, with lumber price flex nearly filling the hole. Year-over-year, ~$255M implied Q2 EBITDA is ~-24% vs the $336M in Q2'25, but that reflects an unusually strong prior-year SLS/Wood Products base rather than fresh deterioration. The turn is supply-driven — ~50 mills curtailed or closed industry-wide lifted lumber realizations +13% q/q in Q1 while housing stayed weak — which is exactly the multi-year management thesis (profitability is set by per-product supply/demand, not starts) that the Street has under-appreciated.

Key watch items into the print:

• Guidance framing — WY guides Wood Products "comparable ex price" while Q2 lumber ran materially higher, so the realized number skews above the guide wording. Watch the Q3 guide, the FY26 SLS ~$425M reiteration (implies ~$110M of 2H EBITDA, a back-load the Street is testing), and any lift to the lumber/OSB commentary.
• Cost discipline — the pre-warned ~$20M Wood Products operational offset (transport constraints, resin inflation, three planned OSB maintenance outages) plus ~$10M/month gross Middle-East cost inflation. A clean beat needs ops better than the -$20M pre-warn.
• Tariffs — the AR7 softwood duty reset cuts combined AD/CVD ~10ppt to ~24.83%; with the Section 232 10% on top, all-in Canadian burden stays ~34.8% until the final determination (expected late Aug, can slip to Oct). A confirmed-but-pending Q3 tailwind that structurally favors Southern Yellow Pine and Douglas-fir.
• Housing — 30-yr mortgage ~6.55% (11-month high) and single-family starts ~895k (-3.2% y/y) keep EWP and R&R "stuck in second gear." No recovery is embedded in the guide, so any rate relief is unmodeled upside.

WY issues no consolidated revenue, EPS, or margin range. It guides each segment directionally off the prior quarter, and the Wood Products guide explicitly carves out lumber/OSB price — the single largest P&L swing factor. The figures below translate the qualitative Q1'26-call guidance into implied dollars off Q1'26 actual segment EBITDA.

Implied Q2'26 EBITDA walk (company's own catalyst math): from Q1'26 $308M → +~$70M lumber price flex, -~$20M Wood Products ops, -~$70M SLS step-down, Timberlands ~flat → ~$288M. The lower ~$255M mid reflects a more conservative price-realization capture. Either way the sequential decline is pre-flagged and understood, so it is not a negative surprise.

Current quarter (Q2'26) — segment EBITDA drivers

Guide Low/High are analyst bands around management's qualitative direction; Guide Mid is a point estimate off Q1'26 actual plus the stated delta. Segment-level Street consensus is not published (n/a); internal model locations were unavailable this run (n/a).

Per-business KPIs (Daloopa-sourced; 2026Q1 latest actual)

FQ+1 (Q3'26) guide and FY26 standing guide

WY guides only one quarter forward, so Q3'26 is not yet guided (issued on the July 31 call). The standing FY26 items management has committed to are below.

Management tone has inverted worse → better across four quarters — capitulation in H2'25 to cautious optimism in Q1'26 — with the improvement concentrated in wood-products pricing rather than end-demand. C-suite is stable (CEO Devin Stockfish, CFO David Wold; no turnover), a positive management-quality signal.

Confidence levels by metric. High conviction: the SLS FY26 ~$425M and front-loaded cadence; the full-year harvest and capex plans (unchanged since Q4). Medium / hedged: Timberlands "comparable" (two-way seasonal cost/price swings) and lumber upside (framed cautiously — "a little volatility with Southern Yellow Pine"). Explicitly uncontrolled: housing and R&R demand — EWP pricing is tied entirely to single-family starts.

Contrarian-management lens. Management has repeated for years that Wood Products profitability is driven by per-product supply/demand, not housing starts ("we've made significant profits with starts well below 1.5M"). Q1'26 validated exactly that — lumber EBITDA rebounded on ~50 mills of curtailments while housing stayed weak. This is the investing-principles setup: a credible team saying something the Street under-appreciates, then delivering it. The tone shift is earned, not promotional.

Post-guidance updates (net: slightly less favorable on demand, flattening on the commodity kicker, tariff tailwind pending).

• Nareit REITweek (Jun 2) — Stockfish and Wold reaffirmed the $1.5B-by-2030 incremental EBITDA plan and $250M Climate Solutions target; read as a reaffirmation of the Q1 outlook.
• Mortgage rates rose, not fell — 30-yr hit ~6.55% (11-month high), worse than the ~6.3% cited on the call; undercuts the "if rates trend lower" upside case.
• June housing — starts +19% m/m to 1.427M, but single-family fell to 895k (-3.2% y/y); the rebound was all multifamily. Confirms the "second gear" framing; a modest negative for single-family-levered EWP.
• Lumber softened into the print — composite ~$625/MBF mid-July, roughly flat on the month; SYP holding on supply discipline. Q2 realizations are still likely above the Q1 average (the guided kicker), but momentum flattened vs the "significantly higher" QTD framing — the upside surprise is narrower than in early May. The July pullback is a Q3 issue since Q2 (Apr–Jun) realizations are largely locked.
• AR7 duties — preliminary combined AD/CVD ~24.83%; with Section 232 10% on top, all-in stays ~34.8% until the final determination (late Aug, can slip to Oct). A confirmed-but-pending late-Q3 tailwind.

Implied Q2 walk from the catalyst math: from Q1'26 $308M → +~$70M lumber, -~$20M Wood Products ops, -~$70M SLS, Timberlands ~flat → ~$288M — the number the print is judged against. A clean beat needs ops better than -$20M or SLS real-estate mix upside; below that flags cost-control slippage.

Clean setup: no CEO/CFO change, no guidance withdrawal, no delayed release, no litigation or insider red flags in the window. The July 30 date is company-confirmed (IR release 2026-06-25); note the stale _meta/earnings_calendar.json entry of 2026-07-23.

WY is a consistent bottom-line beater on a low bar — 9 EPS beats / 3 meets / 0 misses over the last 12 quarters, and 4-for-4 over the last 4 quarters. The catch: beats come against a depressed, trough-cycle consensus analysts keep cutting into the print, and the top line chronically misses. The two biggest recent beats leaned on lumpy SLS land transactions (the non-repeating $94M Florida easement) and Wood Products supply discipline — not a demand recovery.

Classification: consistent low-bar beater. Zero EPS misses in twelve quarters is unusually clean, but per investing-principles this is a sentiment-inversion / low-expectations pattern rather than a leadership-quality signal — analysts model WY conservatively through the downturn (25Q3 consensus -$0.07 vs +$0.06 actual; 26Q1 consensus $0.04 vs $0.11 actual), so modest execution clears the bar, while revenue does not follow. Read for Q2'26: the low-bar-beat pattern is intact and consensus ~$0.10 sits below the Q1'26 $0.11 actual despite higher Q2 lumber — a beatable bar — but a "beat" will hinge on lumber/OSB price flex and real-estate mix offsetting the guided SLS step-down. Expect the same EPS-beat / revenue-soft signature.