Financial Trends -- 3/10
WY financial trends are deeply negative. Total revenue has declined three consecutive years ($10.2B peak
in FY2021 to $6.9B in FY2025, -1.7% 5yr CAGR). Adj. EBITDA collapsed 75% peak-to-trough ($4.1B to $1.0B)
over four consecutive years of decline. Diluted EPS fell from $3.47 to $0.44 -- five straight years of decline.
Wood Products EBITDA turned negative in Q4 2025 (-$20M) with lumber and OSB at inflation-adjusted cycle lows.
The dividend has been cut from $2.17/share to $0.84/share over three years. RE and Climate Solutions (+18% EBITDA)
and stabilizing Timberlands (+8% EBITDA) are partial offsets but far from sufficient. This is a trough, not a
structural decline -- but current earnings power is near zero.
Weight: 25%
FY2025 Revenue
$6,905M
-3.1% YoY | 3rd consecutive decline
FY2025 Adj. EBITDA
$1,021M
-21% YoY | -75% from FY2021 peak
FY2025 Diluted EPS
$0.44
5th year of decline | Down 87% from peak
FY2025 Dividend/Share
$0.84
3.4% yield | Down from $2.17 peak
Annual Revenue by Segment (USD M)
Revenue has declined three consecutive years, driven by Wood Products.
Total revenue fell from $10.2B (FY2021) to $6.9B (FY2025), a -1.7% 5yr CAGR. Wood Products -- the largest
segment at ~72% of revenue -- declined -3.1% CAGR as lumber and OSB prices collapsed from pandemic peaks.
Timberlands grew modestly at +1.5% CAGR. RE and ENR is the standout at +10.5% CAGR, driven by Climate
Solutions growth (carbon credits). The rate of decline is decelerating (-25% to -7% to -3%), but revenue
is still contracting.
| Metric | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $7,532M | $10,201M | $10,184M | $7,674M | $7,124M | $6,905M |
| YoY Growth | — | +35.4% | -0.2% | -24.6% | -7.2% | -3.1% |
| Timberlands | $1,937M | $2,171M | $2,419M | $2,226M | $2,066M | $2,086M |
| Wood Products | $5,790M | $8,221M | $7,958M | $5,657M | $5,221M | $4,957M |
| RE & ENR | $276M | $344M | $368M | $363M | $391M | $454M |
5yr CAGR: Total -1.7% | Timberlands +1.5% | Wood Products -3.1% | RE & ENR +10.5%. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Annual Adj. EBITDA by Segment (USD M)
EBITDA collapsed 75% peak-to-trough over four years.
Total Adj. EBITDA declined from $4,094M (FY2021) to $1,021M (FY2025). Wood Products EBITDA fell from
$3,357M to just $250M (-30.3% CAGR) -- the primary driver of the collapse. RE and ENR grew to $411M
(+11.3% CAGR), now representing 40% of total EBITDA vs ~11% historically. Timberlands EBITDA stabilized
at $581M (+7.8% YoY) after two years of decline. The EBITDA mix shift toward RE and ENR provides some
structural support, but cannot offset the Wood Products trough.
| Metric | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total EBITDA | $2,201M | $4,094M | $3,654M | $1,694M | $1,292M | $1,021M |
| YoY Growth | — | +86.0% | -10.7% | -53.6% | -23.7% | -21.0% |
| Timberlands | $610M | $693M | $784M | $646M | $539M | $581M |
| Wood Products | $1,527M | $3,357M | $2,737M | $905M | $661M | $250M |
| RE & ENR | $241M | $296M | $329M | $320M | $349M | $411M |
5yr CAGR: Total -14.2% | Timberlands -1.0% | Wood Products -30.3% | RE & ENR +11.3%. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Quarterly Revenue by Segment (USD M)
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $1,796M | $1,939M | $1,681M | $1,708M | $1,763M | $1,884M | $1,717M | $1,541M |
| Timberlands | $521M | $555M | $493M | $497M | $534M | $529M | $536M | $487M |
| Wood Products | $1,302M | $1,421M | $1,235M | $1,263M | $1,287M | $1,357M | $1,228M | $1,085M |
| RE & ENR | $107M | $109M | $89M | $86M | $94M | $154M | $103M | $103M |
Q4 2025 total revenue of $1,541M was the lowest quarter in the dataset. Wood Products Q4 at $1,085M down 14% YoY. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Quarterly Adj. EBITDA by Segment (USD M)
Wood Products EBITDA turned negative in Q4 2025 (-$20M).
This is the worst quarterly result in the dataset. Total EBITDA fell to just $140M in Q4 2025.
The quarterly EBITDA mix has shifted dramatically -- RE and ENR generated $95M in Q4 vs Wood Products
at -$20M. Timberlands held at $114M. The Q2 seasonal peak has weakened each year (Q2 2024: $410M vs
Q2 2025: $336M). Wood Products is at trough -- the operating rate was mid-70% in Q4, significantly
below normal, with lumber and OSB at inflation-adjusted cycle lows.
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $352M | $410M | $236M | $294M | $328M | $336M | $217M | $140M |
| Timberlands | $144M | $147M | $122M | $126M | $167M | $152M | $148M | $114M |
| Wood Products | $184M | $225M | $91M | $161M | $161M | $101M | $8M | ($20M) |
| RE & ENR | $94M | $102M | $77M | $76M | $82M | $143M | $91M | $95M |
Q4 2025 Wood Products EBITDA of -$20M is the first negative quarter. RE & ENR now 40% of total EBITDA. Data sourced from Daloopa.
EPS Trajectory (Annual)
Five consecutive years of EPS decline.
Diluted EPS collapsed from $3.47 (FY2021) to $0.44 (FY2025) -- down 87%. Adj. EPS fell from $3.37 to
just $0.20. Net earnings of $324M in FY2025 are down 88% from the $2,607M peak. Q4 2025 Adj. EPS was
-$0.09, the first quarterly loss. The earnings collapse is entirely driven by commodity pricing --
share count has only declined -0.7% CAGR (747M to 721M), meaning buybacks are a negligible offset.
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diluted EPS | $3.47 | $2.53 | $1.15 | $0.55 | $0.44 |
| Adj. EPS | $3.37 | $3.03 | $1.02 | $0.53 | $0.20 |
| Net Earnings | $2,607M | $1,880M | $839M | $396M | $324M |
Quarterly EPS
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAAP EPS | $0.16 | $0.24 | $0.04 | $0.11 | $0.11 | $0.12 | $0.11 | $0.10 |
| Adj. EPS | $0.16 | $0.21 | $0.05 | $0.11 | $0.11 | $0.12 | $0.06 | ($0.09) |
FY2020 EPS excluded (anomalous data). Q4 2025 Adj. EPS of -$0.09 is the first quarterly loss. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Commodity Pricing Trends (Quarterly)
Lumber and OSB at inflation-adjusted cycle lows.
Lumber realizations fell to $393/MBF in Q4 2025 (near cycle low). OSB collapsed to $218/MSF -- the
lowest in the dataset and near historically low on an inflation-adjusted basis per management. Western
log prices declined to $108.64/ton, down 28% from the $159 peak in FY2022. Southern log pricing is the
one bright spot, remarkably stable at ~$37/ton. Recent SYP price improvement is "primarily supply
side-driven" from curtailments and reduced Canadian imports (higher duties / 232 tariffs).
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lumber ($/MBF) | $429 | $419 | $404 | $442 | $463 | $454 | $405 | $393 |
| OSB ($/MSF) | $359 | $407 | $305 | $321 | $317 | $280 | $231 | $218 |
| W. Logs ($/ton) | $121.1 | $123.2 | $114.0 | $110.3 | $118.5 | $117.7 | $110.7 | $108.6 |
| S. Logs ($/ton) | $36.9 | $36.9 | $36.7 | $37.3 | $37.1 | $37.7 | $36.6 | $37.3 |
Q4 2025 lumber operating rate mid-70%, significantly below normal. OSB mid-90%. Industry mill closures accelerating. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Lumber Sales Volume (M bf, Quarterly)
FY2025 lumber sales: 4,740M bf (+5.3% YoY). Recovery from Princeton mill sale headwind. Guidance: ~35,500K ton total harvest in 2026. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Dividends and Capital Return
Total dividend declined 3 consecutive years, but base raised 5%.
Total payout fell from $2.17/share (FY2022) to $0.84 (FY2025) due to elimination of supplemental
dividends that were large in FY2021-2023. The base quarterly dividend was raised 5% in FY2025. Current
yield is 3.4% on $24.43 price. Share repurchases of $160M in FY2025, with a new $1B authorization.
Shares outstanding declined 3.5% from 747M (FY2020) to 721M (FY2025) -- modest but steady reduction.
| Metric | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend/Share | $0.51 | $1.18 | $2.17 | $1.66 | $0.94 | $0.84 |
| Shares (M) | 747M | 747M | 733M | 730M | 726M | 721M |
$160M buyback in FY2025. New $1B repurchase authorization. Base dividend +5% YoY. Data sourced from Daloopa.
EBITDA Mix Shift: RE & ENR Rising
RE and ENR now represents 40% of EBITDA, up from ~11% historically.
This structural mix shift is the most important positive development. Climate Solutions EBITDA exceeded
the $100M target at $119M in FY2025 and is on path to $250M by 2030. The $1.5B incremental EBITDA
target by 2030 (from FY2024 base) includes Climate Solutions growth, a new $500M TimberStrand facility,
and a biocarbon JV with Aymium. This provides a credible path to earnings diversification beyond
commodity lumber/OSB pricing.
Climate Solutions EBITDA: $119M in FY2025, +42% YoY, exceeding $100M target. Path to $250M by 2030. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Key Transcript Takeaways
| Topic | Detail |
|---|---|
| Housing Outlook | FY2025 total starts ~1.3M, SF "a fair bit below" 1M. Fourth consecutive down year for SF starts. Base case: housing "up slightly" in 2026. Material pickup requires lower rates. |
| Pricing Recovery | Q4 pricing near historically low on inflation-adjusted basis for both lumber and OSB. Recent SYP improvement primarily supply-driven (curtailments, higher Canadian duties). Industry mill closures accelerating. |
| Growth Targets | $1.5B incremental EBITDA by 2030. Climate Solutions to $250M. New $500M TimberStrand facility (Monticello, AR). Biocarbon JV with Aymium. |
| Leverage Risk | 5x net debt/EBITDA. Management frames as cyclical. Wood Products profitability entirely dependent on pricing recovery with no near-term catalyst beyond seasonal demand. |
Next earnings: April 30, 2026. Housing undersupply thesis intact but no near-term catalyst. Data sourced from Daloopa.