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WY
Weyerhaeuser
Earnings
WY | Earnings Review
Weyerhaeuser Company | 2026 Q1 reported May 1, 2026 AMC | Analysis date: May 5, 2026 | Daloopa company_id 220
Revenue
$1.73B (slight miss)
vs ~$1.78B Street (-3%); -2% YoY; Real Estate/ENR record $207M (+120% YoY) on $94M FL conservation easement
Adj EPS (ex-special)
$0.11 (+120% surprise)
vs $0.05 FactSet; GAAP $0.22 boosted by $192M VA timberlands divestiture + $94M conservation + $21M insurance recovery; 75% L8Q EPS beat rate
Adj EBITDA
$308M (+120% QoQ)
vs $140M Q4'25 trough (-6% YoY vs $328M PY); Wood Products swung from -$20M Q4'25 to +$71M; Lumber +$84M EBITDA swing on +13% QoQ realizations
Q2'26 Guide
Comparable to Q1
Q2 lumber QTD "significantly higher" + OSB "slightly higher" but SLS step-down ~$70M on FL easement non-repeat — implies ~$280-290M Q2 EBITDA
Cyclical trough confirmed Q4'25; Q1'26 marks tentative inflection on Lumber price snap-back + outsized special items. Revenue $1.73B slight miss vs ~$1.78B Street (-3%, -2% YoY). GAAP EPS $0.22 (vs $0.11 PY); Adj EPS ex-special $0.11 beat $0.05 FactSet by +120% surprise. Adj EBITDA $308M (+120% QoQ from $140M Q4'25 trough; -6% YoY vs $328M). 75% L8Q EPS beat rate (100% L4Q ex one meet). Special items boost: $192M divestiture (108K acres VA non-core timberlands) + $94M FL conservation easement + $21M product remediation insurance — combined $79M after-tax benefit creates GAAP/Adj $0.11 bridge. Segment scorecard: Wood Products swung from -$20M Q4'25 to +$71M (Lumber from -$57M Q4 to +$27M on +13% QoQ realizations); Real Estate/ENR record $193M Adj EBITDA (vs ~$80-95M trend); Timberlands $120M (-28% YoY). Wood Products bottomed Q4'25; Lumber rebound is supply-driven (~50 mills shut/curtailed industry-wide), not demand-driven. Q2'26 guide: "Comparable to Q1" ex-specials and Adj EBITDA. Underneath: Q2 lumber QTD "significantly higher" + OSB "slightly higher" creates upside vs strict "comparable" framing; SLS steps down ~$70M on $94M FL easement non-repeat; net implies ~$280-290M Q2 Adj EBITDA. FY26 SLS $425M reaffirmed but 1H run-rate of ~$316M leaves ~$110M needed in 2H — back-loading risk; capex $400-450M + $300M Monticello reaffirmed (2027 startup; ~$100M EBITDA at full rate). Macro tone softened: mortgage rates back to 6.30-6.37%; weak consumer confidence; Middle East cost reflation ~$10M/month gross (mostly offset, in Q2 guide); Fannie Mae projects SF starts -6.2% YoY through Q3'26. EWP softer than expected (cleanest SF proxy). Small positives: March starts beat; mortgage applications ticking up. Key catalysts: (1) Section 232 + AR7 softwood duty reset (Aug/Oct 2026) — all-in Canadian duties currently ~45%; AR7 prelim takes them to ~35% (10 pt drop) → either way structurally less SPF in U.S. = durable share-shift to SYP and Doug fir, both core WY exposures; (2) Lumber/OSB pricing momentum + Monticello ramp (Q1 lumber +13% QoQ, $84M EBITDA swing; ~50 mills closed); (3) SF housing starts inflection / mortgage rate path (sub-6% mortgage = unlock for EWP and Western log pricing). Capital allocation: trailing leverage 5x at cyclical trough vs 3.5x mid-cycle target — buyback throttled to $10M Q1 (vs $100M Q2'25); IG protection prioritized; NO supplemental dividend despite special-items surge. 5 contradictions identified: (1) buyback cadence whipsaw — Q2'25 "highest pace since 2022" / "attractive lever" → fell to $25M / $35M / $10M as leverage hit ~5x; (2) lumber price outlook — Q2'25 said duties would push lumber up through fall; Q3'25 lumber EBITDA was -$48M on Canadian front-loading not flagged in Q2; (3) Wood Products operating posture — "we run more than others" Q2'25 reversed within one quarter (Q3 -3%, Q4 -14%; operating rate fell from high-80s% to mid-70s%); (4) SLS guidance $350M FY25 → actual $411M (lumpier than "consistent flow" framing); (5) housing catalysts (tax bill, trade deals, Fed) never materialized as tailwinds. Pattern: near-term forecasts on housing and lumber pricing have been consistently too optimistic; buyback rhetoric has run ahead of actual pace. Read: Q1'26 print is the "trough-and-turn" signal but underlying run-rate excluding $193M Real Estate/ENR is closer to ~$200M EBITDA. Direction positive, magnitude still early. Wood Products needs to keep climbing to validate cyclical turn. Stock dipped after-hours on revenue miss + EBITDA print quality questions.
Key Metrics Trends
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total net sales | $1.8B | $1.9B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $1.7B | $1.5B | $1.7B |
| Total net sales YoY % | - | - | - | - | -1.8% | -2.8% | +2.1% | -9.8% | -2.0% |
| Timberlands net sales | $521M | $555M | $493M | $497M | $534M | $529M | $536M | $487M | $492M |
| Timberlands net sales YoY % | - | - | - | - | +2.5% | -4.7% | +8.7% | -2.0% | -7.9% |
| Wood Products net sales | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| Wood Products net sales YoY % | - | - | - | - | -1.2% | -4.5% | -0.6% | -14.1% | -9.6% |
| Real Estate / ENR net sales | $107M | $109M | $89M | $86M | $94M | $154M | $103M | $103M | $207M |
| Real Estate / ENR net sales YoY % | - | - | - | - | -12.1% | +41.3% | +15.7% | +19.8% | +120.2% |
| Total Adj EBITDA | $352M | $410M | $236M | $294M | $328M | $336M | $217M | $140M | $308M |
| Total Adj EBITDA YoY % | - | - | - | - | -6.8% | -18.0% | -8.1% | -52.4% | -6.1% |
| Timberlands Adj EBITDA | $144M | $147M | $122M | $126M | $167M | $152M | $148M | $114M | $120M |
| Timberlands Adj EBITDA YoY % | - | - | - | - | +16.0% | +3.4% | +21.3% | -9.5% | -28.1% |
| Wood Products Adj EBITDA | $184M | $225M | $91M | $161M | $161M | $101M | $8M | $-20M | $71M |
| Wood Products Adj EBITDA YoY % | - | - | - | - | -12.5% | -55.1% | -91.2% | -112.4% | -55.9% |
| Real Estate / ENR Adj EBITDA | $94M | $102M | $77M | $76M | $82M | $143M | $91M | $95M | $193M |
| Real Estate / ENR Adj EBITDA YoY % | - | - | - | - | -12.8% | +40.2% | +18.2% | +25.0% | +135.4% |
| Lumber Adj EBITDA | $-5M | $-8M | $-29M | $21M | $40M | $11M | $-48M | $-57M | $27M |
| Lumber Adj EBITDA YoY % | - | - | - | - | -900.0% | -237.5% | +65.5% | -371.4% | -32.5% |
| OSB Adj EBITDA | $87M | $122M | $39M | $63M | $59M | $30M | $-3M | $-10M | $3M |
| OSB Adj EBITDA YoY % | - | - | - | - | -32.2% | -75.4% | -107.7% | -115.9% | -94.9% |
| Adj Diluted EPS (ex-special) | $0.16 | $0.21 | $0.05 | $0.11 | $0.11 | $0.12 | $0.06 | $-0.09 | $0.11 |
| Adj Diluted EPS (ex-special) YoY % | - | - | - | - | -31.2% | -42.9% | +20.0% | -181.8% | +0.0% |
| GAAP Diluted EPS | $0.16 | $0.24 | $0.04 | $0.11 | $0.11 | $0.12 | $0.11 | $0.10 | $0.22 |
| GAAP Diluted EPS YoY % | - | - | - | - | -31.2% | -50.0% | +175.0% | -9.1% | +100.0% |
_Trajectory: Trough confirmed Q4'25; Q1'26 marks tentative inflection. Classic housing-cycle bottom shape — false stabilization in late 2024 / early 2025, deeper second leg down through 2025 driven by Wood Products (collapsed from $225M Q2'24 EBITDA to -$20M Q4'25), then sharp Q1'26 rebound (Wood Products back to $71M; consolidated Adj EBITDA $308M; +120% QoQ accel). Lumber the swing factor: -$57M Q4'25 → +$27M Q1'26 = $84M sequential swing on +13% QoQ realizations; Q2 QTD "significantly higher." OSB still negative-trending: $87M Q1'24 → $3M Q1'26 (-97%); 2 new OSB mills could be delayed to 2027. EWP softer than expected (cleanest SF proxy): $86M Q1'24 → $39M Q1'26 (-55%). Caveat: Q1'26 consolidated print flattered by likely non-recurring Real Estate/ENR jump to $193M ($94M FL conservation easement non-repeat); underlying run-rate is closer to ~$200M. FY-level (2021→2025) shows revenue down 32% and Adj EBITDA down 75%, with OSB/EWP still softening YoY in Q1'26. Direction positive, magnitude still early — Wood Products needs to keep climbing to validate the cyclical turn._
Beat/Miss
Guidance
Catalysts
Street Q&A
Contradictions
Read-Throughs
This Quarter vs Consensus
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Variance | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$1.78B | $1.73B | -$50M / -3% | Slight Miss |
| Reported Revenue YoY | — | -2% | — | Down |
| GAAP Diluted EPS | — | $0.22 | +100% YoY | Special items boost |
| Adj EPS (ex-special) | $0.05 | $0.11 | +$0.06 / +120% surprise | Beat — Lumber recovery + cost discipline |
| Special items (after-tax) | — | $79M ($0.11 EPS) | — | $192M VA divestiture + $94M conservation + $21M insurance |
| Adj EBITDA | — | $308M | +120% QoQ; -6% YoY | Trough behind |
| Wood Products Adj EBITDA | — | $71M | Swung from -$20M Q4'25 | +$91M sequential swing |
| Lumber Adj EBITDA | — | $27M | +$84M from -$57M Q4'25 | +13% QoQ realizations |
| OSB Adj EBITDA | — | $3M | vs $59M PY | Still soft |
| EWP Adj EBITDA | — | $39M | vs $53M PY | SF proxy weak |
| Real Estate/ENR Adj EBITDA | — | $193M | +136% YoY (record) | Inflated by $94M FL easement |
| L8Q EPS beat rate | — | 75% (100% L4Q ex 1 meet) | — | Consistent |
| Stock reaction | — | Dipped after-hours | — | Quality of EBITDA + revenue miss |
Pattern: Trough-and-turn signal but quality of beat is mixed. 75% L8Q EPS beat rate (100% L4Q ex one meet). Q1'26 Adj EPS surprise +120% is the highest in the window — but driven by (a) lumber price snap-back (+13% QoQ; supply-driven from ~50 mill closures, not demand), (b) cost discipline, and (c) $94M FL conservation easement (Real Estate/ENR record $193M). Revenue slight miss confirms underlying demand still soft. Mgmt's variance commentary: ~50 industry mill closures + lean dealer inventories drove sharp Q1 lumber rally; Q2 QTD prices "significantly higher" than Q1 average. EWP softer than WY expected (cleanest SF proxy); only slight March uptick. Middle East conflict adds ~$10M/month gross cost (mostly offset). Trough confirmed Q4'25: Wood Products went from $225M Q2'24 EBITDA peak to -$20M Q4'25 trough — back to $71M Q1'26 = +$91M sequential swing. OSB still soft ($3M Q1'26 vs $59M PY) and EWP weak ($39M vs $53M PY). FY24 → FY25 revenue down 32% / EBITDA down 75% across the cycle.
Guidance Deep Dive
| Metric | Prior | New (May'26) | Δ | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 Earnings ex-specials | — | Comparable to Q1 | — | Conservative; lumber price upside not reflected |
| Q2'26 Adj EBITDA | — | Comparable to Q1 (~$280-290M implied) | — | Q1 was $308M; SLS step-down ~$70M; lumber upside |
| Q2'26 Lumber pricing QTD | — | "Significantly higher" than Q1 avg | — | Tailwind |
| Q2'26 OSB pricing QTD | — | "Slightly higher" than Q1 avg | — | Modest tailwind |
| FY26 SLS guide (Real Estate/ENR) | $425M | $425M reaffirmed | Maintained | Back-loaded — 1H ~$316M means ~$110M needed in 2H |
| FY26 Capex (base) | $400-450M | $400-450M reaffirmed | Maintained | — |
| FY26 Capex (Monticello) | $300M | $300M reaffirmed | Maintained | $500M total project |
| Monticello startup | 2027 | 2027 reaffirmed | Maintained | ~$100M EBITDA at full rate |
| Mortgage rate environment | Hopeful | Back to 6.30-6.37% | Worse | SF housing softer than expected |
| SF housing starts (Fannie projection) | — | -6.2% YoY through Q3'26 | Negative | EWP demand pressure |
| Middle East cost inflation | — | ~$10M/month gross (mostly offset) | Headwind | In Q2 guide |
| Section 232 + AR7 duty reset | All-in 45% | AR7 prelim → ~35% (Aug 2026) | -10 pt cut | Modest relief; structural SYP shift continues |
| Buyback (Q1'26) | $25M / $35M Q3-Q4'25 | $10M Q1'26 | Throttled further | Trough valuation; IG protection priority |
| Supplemental dividend | Possible | NOT declared | None despite special items | Leverage 5x at trough |
| Trailing net leverage | — | ~5x (vs 3.5x mid-cycle target) | — | Cyclical pressure |
| Renewables/solar pipeline | — | 4-6 facilities under construction by YE'26 | Accelerating | ENR optionality |
Tone: macro softened, commodity firmed, tone arc has been consistently too optimistic on housing. Mgmt threaded "comparable to Q1" Q2 guide despite lumber QTD "significantly higher" — implies sandbag, but SLS $94M FL easement non-repeat creates ~$70M segment headwind. Risk caveats: (1) SF housing starts -6.2% YoY through Q3'26 per Fannie; (2) mortgage rates back to 6.30-6.37% (sub-6% would be unlock); (3) EWP softer than expected (cleanest SF proxy); (4) Middle East ~$10M/month gross cost (mostly offset, in Q2 guide); (5) AR7 softwood duty step-down ~10pp around August (45% → ~35%) — modest relief but structurally less SPF; (6) two new OSB mills could be delayed to 2027 = supply-side floor; (7) FY26 SLS $425M reaffirmed but 1H ran ~$316M — back-loaded; (8) buyback throttled to $10M Q1 vs $100M Q2'25 (IG protection at ~5x leverage). 5 contradictions identified — pattern is persistent over-optimism on housing/lumber and buyback rhetoric running ahead of pace. Watch: Q2 lumber realizations vs guide framing; June rate path; SF starts seasonality; supplemental dividend signal at next call.
Upcoming Catalysts
| # | Catalyst | Timing | What to Watch | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Section 232 + AR7 softwood duty reset | Aug/Oct 2026 | All-in Canadian duties ~45%; AR7 prelim takes them to ~35% (-10 pt drop); structurally less SPF in U.S. | Durable share-shift to SYP and Doug fir (core WY) |
| 2 | Lumber/OSB pricing momentum + Monticello ramp | Q2-Q3 2026 → 2027 startup | Q1 lumber realizations +13% QoQ ($84M EBITDA swing); Q2 QTD "significantly higher"; ~50 mills closed industry-wide; $500M Monticello ($300M 2026 capex) targets 2027 ~$100M EBITDA at full rate | Supply-driven floor; mid-2027 capacity addition |
| 3 | SF housing starts inflection / mortgage rate path | 2H'26 → FY27 | Rates 6.30-6.37%, Fannie projects SF starts -6.2% YoY through Q3'26; sub-6% mortgage = unlock for EWP and Western log pricing | Highest-beta lever |
| 4 | Two new OSB mills delayed to 2027 | Industry-wide | Supply-side floor; OSB still negative through Q1'26 | Supportive of OSB pricing recovery |
| 5 | Real Estate / ENR transactions cadence | FY26 | Record Q1 $193M EBITDA on $94M FL easement; FY26 SLS $425M (1H $316M ahead of pace, but back-loaded vs FL non-repeat) | Lumpy but well-telegraphed |
| 6 | Renewables/solar pipeline | Through YE'26 | 4-6 facilities under construction by YE'26; multi-project pipeline ramping | ENR optionality |
| 7 | Carbon credits / Natural Climate Solutions | Multi-year | $94M FL conservation easement signals market depth | Optionality |
| 8 | Repair/Remodel cycle | Ongoing FY26 | EWP demand softer than expected; HD relatively favored over LOW given Pro skew | Mixed |
| 9 | Builders FirstSource (BLDR) inventories | Ongoing FY26 | Lean dealer inventories drove the Q1 lumber scramble | Restock dynamic |
| 10 | Capital allocation / supplemental dividend | Q4'26 / FY27 | Trailing leverage 5x at trough vs 3.5x mid-cycle target; buyback throttled to $10M Q1; no supplemental signaled | Constrained until cycle recovers |
| 11 | Q2'26 print | Late July 2026 | Lumber realizations vs "significantly higher" framing; SLS step-down vs FL easement non-repeat; ~$280-290M EBITDA expected | Validates trough-and-turn |
| 12 | Mortgage rate path / Fed cuts | Ongoing | Sub-6% would unlock SF demand | Asymmetric upside |
Street Q&A
| # | Analyst (Firm) | Topic | Mgmt Response | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susan Maklari (Goldman) | Lumber pricing trajectory + ~50 mill closures sustainability | Q1 +13% QoQ realizations; Q2 QTD "significantly higher"; supply-driven; lean dealer inventories drove Q1 scramble | Well Answered |
| 2 | George Staphos (BofA) | Single-family housing demand into spring | Mortgage rates back to 6.3%; weak consumer confidence; March starts beat slightly; mortgage applications ticking up; EWP softer than expected | Well Answered |
| 3 | Mark Wilde (BMO) | OSB pricing trajectory + supply dynamics | Two new mills could be delayed to 2027; OSB still soft Q1'26 ($3M EBITDA); modest QTD improvement | Well Answered |
| 4 | Mark Wilde follow-up | AR7 softwood duty timeline + impact | Prelim ~10pp cut around August (45% → ~35%); structurally less SPF in U.S. = durable share-shift | Well Answered |
| 5 | Kurt Yinger (D.A. Davidson) | Real Estate/ENR FY26 cadence post-Q1 record | $94M FL conservation easement non-repeat in Q2; FY26 SLS $425M reaffirmed; 1H ~$316M ahead of pace, but back-loaded | Well Answered |
| 6 | Mike Roxland (Truist) | Wood Products operating posture / production decisions | Operating rates from high-80s% to mid-70s% through cycle; "we run more than others" framing softened; demand-driven curtailments | Well Answered |
| 7 | Anthony Pettinari (Citi) | Capital allocation / buyback at trough valuation | Buyback throttled to $10M Q1 vs $100M Q2'25; IG protection priority; leverage at ~5x at trough | Well Answered |
| 8 | Anthony Pettinari follow-up | Supplemental dividend at next signaling window | Not declared; leverage at trough; no signal yet | Partial — no commit |
| 9 | Phil Ng (Jefferies) | Middle East cost inflation impact | ~$10M/month gross; mostly offset; in Q2 guide | Well Answered |
| 10 | Various | EWP demand trajectory (SF proxy) | Softer than WY expected; only slight March uptick; cleanest SF proxy under pressure | Well Answered |
| 11 | Hamir Patel (CIBC) | Monticello capex + 2027 startup risk | $500M total ($300M 2026); ~$100M EBITDA at full rate; on schedule | Well Answered |
| 12 | Devin (Seaport) | OSB mill startup delays — risk to 2027 timing | Declined to speculate | Deflected |
| 13 | Various | Renewables/solar pipeline ramp | 4-6 facilities under construction by YE'26; multi-project ramp | Well Answered |
| 14 | Various | Section 232 final ruling / impact | Modest relief but structural SYP shift continues; permanently less SPF | Well Answered |
| 15 | Various | Lumber inventory at dealers | Lean — drove Q1 scramble; restock dynamic supportive | Well Answered |
| 16 | Various | FY26 EBITDA glide path / 2H back-loading | Q2 ~$280-290M; SLS back-loaded; lumber tailwind continues | Well Answered |
Contradictions
| # | Topic | Severity | Statement A | Statement B | Why it's a tension |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buyback cadence whipsaw | LOW-MEDIUM | Q2'25: "highest pace since 2022" ($100M); buyback as "attractive lever" | Q1'26: $10M (throttled to deleveraging); leverage at ~5x; no supplemental dividend declared in any quarter | Buyback rhetoric ran ahead of actual pace. Don't model steady programmatic buybacks. IG protection prioritized at cyclical trough. |
| 2 | Lumber price outlook | MEDIUM | Q2'25: Said duties would push lumber prices up through fall | Q3'25: Lumber EBITDA -$48M loss because Canadian producers front-loaded shipments ahead of duty step-up — pull-forward NOT flagged in Q2 | Near-term forecasts on lumber pricing have been consistently too optimistic. Pull-forward dynamics mis-anticipated. Discount confidence in directional commodity calls. |
| 3 | Wood Products operating posture | LOW-MEDIUM | Q2'25: "We run more than others" stance | Q3'25: Production cut 3%; Q4'25: Production cut 14%; operating rate fell from high-80s% to mid-70s% | Operating posture reversed within one quarter. Demand-driven curtailments. Discounts "we run more than others" forward framing. |
| 4 | SLS guidance trajectory (LOW) | LOW | Q2'25: Guided $350M FY25 SLS | Actual FY25 SLS: $411M; Q4'25 record per-acre; Q1'26 $94M FL easement | Segment visibility is lumpier than "consistent flow" framing implies. Concentrated tx events drive variance. Bull-leaning misses. |
| 5 | Housing catalysts that didn't materialize | LOW | Q2'25 enumerated near-term catalysts: tax bill, trade deals, Fed policy | Each subsequent quarter substituted new headwinds: shutdown, Middle East conflict, mortgage rates back to 6.3% | Pattern of optimistic forward catalysts being overtaken by exogenous headwinds. Risk to base case from compounding macro drag. |
Indirect Read-Throughs
| Name | Relationship | What WY signaled | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) | OSB peer | OSB still soft Q1'26; two new mills delayed to 2027 = supply floor | POSITIVE — supply discipline supports OSB pricing |
| West Fraser (WFG) | Lumber peer (Canadian-heavy) | AR7 softwood duty step-down ~10pp (45% → ~35%); structurally less SPF; modest relief but durable SYP/Doug fir share-shift | MIXED — duty relief positive; share loss to U.S. negative |
| Canfor (CFP) | Lumber peer (Canadian) | Same — modest duty relief but structural shift | MIXED |
| Boise Cascade (BCC) | EWP/Lumber peer | Q1 lumber realizations +13% QoQ; ~50 mills closed industry-wide; supply-driven recovery | POSITIVE — wood-products cycle inflection |
| PotlatchDeltic (PCH) | Timberland REIT peer | AR7 SYP share-shift positive; lumber recovery supportive | POSITIVE — SYP-heavy mix benefits |
| Rayonier (RYN) | Timberland REIT peer | Real Estate/ENR transactions strong; carbon credit market depth | POSITIVE |
| D.R. Horton (DHI) / Lennar (LEN) / KB Home (KBH) / PulteGroup (PHM) | SF builders | SF starts -6.2% YoY through Q3'26 per Fannie; mortgage rates 6.30-6.37%; EWP softer than expected | NEGATIVE — SF demand softer than expected |
| NVR / Toll Brothers (TOL) | SF builders | Same — SF macro under pressure | NEGATIVE |
| Builders FirstSource (BLDR) | Lumber distributor | Lean dealer inventories drove Q1 lumber scramble; restock dynamic supportive; most directly implicated | POSITIVE — restock + price tailwind |
| Home Depot (HD) | Repair/remodel customer | HD relatively favored over LOW given Pro-vs-DIY skew; lumber price tailwind | FAVORED OVER LOW |
| Lowe's (LOW) | Repair/remodel customer | DIY skew less favored; same lumber price tailwind | NEUTRAL — relative pressure |
| International Paper (IP) | Containerboard / packaging | Adjacency to Wood Products cycle; freight/mills exposure | NEUTRAL |
| Beacon Roofing / GMS / Carlisle (CSL) | Building products distribution | Lean dealer inventories supportive of restock dynamic | POSITIVE — restock tailwind |
| Carbon credits / NCS market | ENR optionality | $94M FL conservation easement signals market depth | POSITIVE — optionality |
| Solar/wind renewable land-lease developers | ENR optionality | Multi-project pipeline ramping; 4-6 facilities under construction by YE'26 | POSITIVE |
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