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Prologis reported third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, October 15, 2026. This analysis was prepared Monday, October 26, 2026. Quarter ended September 30, 2026. Fiscal year ends December 31, so this print is 2026Q3. Next print is Q4 2026, expected January 20, 2027. The scorecard is Core FFO per share, not GAAP EPS.

PLD | Earnings Review — Q3 2026

Two growth rates, and they do not say the same thing. Versus the year-ago third quarter, Core FFO per share re-accelerated from +4.2% to +7.4% and cash same-store NOI from 5.2% to 5.9%. Versus the prior quarter's own year-over-year rate, reported Core FFO decelerated −426 bps (from +11.6% to +7.4%) and total revenue decelerated −322 bps (from +11.1% to +7.8%). The second move is the promote. Rental revenue, 92% of the quarter, only slowed 14 bps, to +7.4%. Net-effective rent change kept narrowing, from 49.4% to 38.0%.

Print. Core FFO was $1.60, +$0.02 / +1.3% versus Zacks $1.58, and +7.4% versus $1.49. Excluding net promote it was $1.61. Net promote was an expense of $10 million, so promote reduced the print by a penny. It did not create the beat. In Q2 promote income was +$26 million and headline Core FFO was $1.63. Total revenue was $2,387.5 million, +7.8% versus $2,213.9 million. Rental revenue was $2,205.3 million, +7.4% versus $2,054.2 million, and +$5 million / +0.2% versus the Zacks rental line of $2.20 billion. Property NOI was $1,693.6 million. The margin on rental revenue was 76.8%, +39 bps versus 76.4% a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA was $2,080.5 million, +11.4%. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.86, +4.9% versus $0.82, and +$0.083 / +10.7% versus the FMP GAAP estimate of $0.777. That GAAP beat is not the scorecard.

Do not use the FMP pair. FMP stores actual 1.6 against an estimate of 0.777. The 1.6 is Core FFO filed into an EPS field. Diffing them invents a +106% beat. FMP revenue actual of $2,388 million against a $2,176 million estimate invents a +9.7% beat, because the estimate is rental-scale and the actual is total revenue.

Guidance. FY2026 Core FFO, including and excluding promotes, tightened to $6.25–$6.29. Midpoint $6.27, +$0.01 versus July's $6.26. The floor rose 3 cents and the ceiling fell 1 cent. TheFly's 2026 FFO figure of $6.27 sits on the new midpoint. That is not Visible Alpha and not Bloomberg. GAAP net earnings was cut to $4.05–$4.15, midpoint $4.10, from $4.40–$4.55. The cut is deferred gains, not a Core FFO miss. Cash same-store NOI was raised to 7.0%–7.5%. Nine-month Core FFO is $4.73. The residual for Q4 is $1.52–$1.56, about +6.9% at $1.54 versus 2025Q4 $1.44. The same-store raise does not require a faster fourth quarter. A 7.25% year is made with a Q4 cash rate near 5.8%. There is no 2027 guide, and management said the January guide will exclude SEGRO.

Beat pattern. Consistent beater. Last twelve quarters: 9 beats, 3 penny in-lines, zero misses. Last four: 3/4, average surprise +2.3% versus +4.7% in the prior four. This +1.3% replaced a +3.5% and gave back most of Q2's promote-aided +6.5%. Ex-promote, Q2 was still about +$0.07 versus a $1.53 consensus. This quarter's ex-promote $1.61 versus $1.58 is about +$0.03. The operating beat shrank, and promote flipped from a tailwind to a headwind.

Tone. Operations were called excellent: 60 million square feet signed, occupancy up, same-store raised. The frame around capital changed. The bar for new development and for allocating capital was raised and left unquantified. Acquisitions were marked up because the activity is largely done. Dispositions and contributions were cut. Strategic-capital fees were cut. Three questions were deflected: the 20 bp development cap-rate move, SEGRO accretion, and the size of the higher hurdle.

What the street has not underwritten. Q4 Core FFO inside $1.52–$1.56 is already in a $6.27 year. SEGRO (close aimed at the first half of 2027), about 1 gigawatt of letters of intent expected to start in 2027, and 2027 market rents are not in that year. Caton refused a 2027 rent forecast. That is the management-versus-street gap, and it is still unquantified.

Contradictions, three. Q4 2025 U.S. vacancy is both 7.4% and a flat 7.5%. Absorption was not running at 240 million square feet annualized all year when the first quarter was 45 million. Data-center margins were corrected, on the Q1 2026 call, from 25–50% above logistics to a 25–50% margin. The October call kept the corrected version.

What this is not. Not a price note. Bloomberg and Visible Alpha were not connected. SharePoint, OneNote, Outlook, and Excel were unavailable and were skipped. No forward multiple is stated.

Rental revenue is the business. Strategic capital is fees plus promote timing. A promote quarter (2024Q4, 2026Q2) makes total-revenue growth and reported Core FFO growth point the wrong way. Same quarter versus the year-ago quarter only. The eight quarters below are the window that contains the promoted peak, the 2025Q4 trough, the 2026 re-acceleration, and this give-back. Five completed years sit under the quarterly table.

Revenue drivers

The three lines foot. 2026Q3 rental $2,205.3 million plus strategic capital $164.3 million plus development management and other $17.9 million equals total revenue $2,387.5 million. Development is 0.8% of the quarter. Its percent change is noise.

Rental YoY, Q3 stack: +6.7% → +8.3% → +7.4%. Last three prints: +6.9% → +7.5% → +7.4%. The slowdown from the 2024 first-half peak is mostly finished. This is a small giveback, not a new downtrend. Strategic capital on a clean third quarter went −1.1% → +11.1% → +9.3%. Fee-related revenue, the recurring piece, was $111.6 million versus $101.6 million, +9.8%. The +64.2% strategic-capital print in 2026Q2 is promote timing. The year-over-year dollar bridge says the same thing: rental's add was almost unchanged (+$152 million, then +$151 million) while strategic capital's add shrank by about $80 million. That is the consolidated −322 bps.

Operating drivers and the scorecard

How to read the slope. Reported Core FFO, Q3 stack: +10.0% → +4.2% → +7.4%. The 2025Q3 rate was the trough on that stack. This quarter is about 320 bps faster than that trough and still slower than 2024Q3. Ex-promote, which is the series to use around 2026Q2: +3.4% → +7.3% on the Q3 stack, and the last three prints are +6.3% → +8.8% → +7.3%. One step slower than Q2, clearly faster than the year-ago quarter. Of the −426 bps on headline Core FFO, about 275 bps is the promote comp rolling off. The other roughly 150 bps is the operating slowdown. Dollar Core FFO grew +8.3% ($1,545 million versus $1,426 million), ahead of the +7.4% per share. The gap is dilution, including equity raised this quarter for the SEGRO consideration. Diluted shares were 968.5 million versus 957.9 million in Q2.

Cash same-store NOI, Q3 stack: 7.2% → 5.2% → 5.9%. The rate fell 200 bps in the prior Q3 and rose 70 bps in this one. Net-effective same-store NOI was 5.7% versus 3.9%, +180 bps. The 8.8% and 8.5% prints in the first half are different quarters. This quarter's 5.9% is the number that lines up with 2025Q3. It also sits below the new full-year cash band of 7.0–7.5%, because the raise is the year-to-date, not the exit rate.

Rent change is still decelerating, and the decline is slowing. Prologis-share net effective, Q3 stack: 67.8% → 49.4% → 38.0%. Cash: 44.1% → 29.4% → 23.4%. The level has lifted off the 2026Q1 trough of 31.9% net effective and 16.8% cash. That is a within-year level change, not a year-over-year acceleration. The spread is still wide. The capture rate is fading. Average occupancy year-over-year went from −190 bps in 2025Q1 to +30 bps in 2026Q3. Period-end occupancy was 95.6% versus 95.3%, also +30 bps. The gap stopped widening. The level is still about 200 bps under 2023Q4.

Property NOI dollars, Q3 stack: $1,469.7 million → $1,569.6 million → $1,693.6 million, or +8.0% → +6.8% → +7.9%. NOI-margin year-over-year went +88 bps → −106 bps → +39 bps. Compression in 2025Q3 reversed. The 76.8% level is back to 2023Q4 and still under the 77.5% peak in 2024Q3. Adjusted EBITDA, Q3 stack: +7.1% → +7.7% → +11.4%, margin 85.1% → 84.4% → 87.1%. Use the Q3 stack. The last three EBITDA prints (+23.0%, +19.7%, +11.4%) look like a slowdown only because 2026Q1 and 2026Q2 are not clean compares. GAAP diluted EPS is not the trend: Q3 stack +35.0% → −24.1% → +4.9%, on disposition gains.

Five years, FY2021–FY2025

FY2026 is three quarters old and is not a year. FY2023 revenue growth of +34.3% is the scale year, not an organic run-rate.

Annual rental growth has decelerated for two years after the scale year: +38.8% → +10.2% → +8.6%. 2026Q3 rental at +7.4% is another small step down from the FY2025 rate. Total revenue's +2.2% in FY2024 is strategic capital falling as promotes rolled off, not a rental recession. Annual Core FFO per share went +24.3% → +8.7% → −0.9% → +4.5%. The new guide of +7.9% at $6.27 would be a further step up on the full-year math. It is not what the last two quarters are doing. Ex-promote annual growth did the opposite of the reported line: +8.4% then +6.0%. The clean annual earnings rate slowed. GAAP EPS does not belong in the annual verdict.

Small Core FFO beat. The "double" is a basis error. Prologis does not guide the quarter. The scorecard is Core FFO per share including net promote, against the Zacks earnings-day consensus. 2026Q3 is the highlighted column. B is a beat. IL is an exact penny. There is no miss in this window.

This quarter's rental actual versus Zacks $2.20 billion is +$5 million / +0.2%, a smaller beat than the FMP rental-scale gap of +$30 million / +1.4% (estimate $2,176 million versus $2,205 million). Rental versus FMP has beaten seven straight quarters in this window, and 8 of the last 12, not eight in a row. The gap just widened. That is the opposite of Core FFO, and it does not carry the scorecard. Zacks said rental topped its own consensus only three of the last four quarters. The one disagreement is not re-identified here.

GAAP diluted EPS versus the FMP estimate is a beat this quarter and 10/12 over twelve quarters, with misses in 2025Q1 and 2025Q2. Disposition gains swing those surprises from about −12% to over +100%. Do not import that hit rate into the Core FFO label. 2025Q4 FMP stores a GAAP actual of 1.49 against Daloopa $1.50. 2026Q3 FMP stores 1.6, which is Core FFO, not the GAAP $0.86.

Rates. Last twelve quarters (2023Q4–2026Q3): strict beats 9/12 = 75%, in-lines 3, misses 0, non-miss rate 100%, average surprise +2.7%. Last four: 3/4, average +2.3%. Prior four (2024Q4–2025Q3): 4/4, average +4.7%. Rolling this quarter in made the last-four average worse, not better. The pre-print last-four average was about +2.8%. Swapping 2025Q3's +3.5% for 2026Q3's +1.3% takes it to +2.3%. An older workspace used $1.52 for the 2026Q2 consensus. Zacks' own look-back is $1.53, surprise +6.54%. That $1.52 is dropped.

Management did not say "versus the Street." They called the quarter excellent and then narrowed the year. Occupancy and same-store NOI did the work. Rent rollover was still positive and the spread was narrower than a year ago. The two cents were not spent on a higher high end. The floor rose, the ceiling fell, and the new midpoint equals the published full-year figure. The Street was not wildly low. The company was not sandbagging the quarter.

Prologis guides the year, not the quarter. The new Core FFO range is the same including and excluding promotes, which means net promote for the year is embedded at about zero. There is no revenue guide, no margin guide, no EBITDA guide, no 2026Q4 guide, and no FY2027 guide.

Waterfall — midpoint, not the level

From the January floor of $6.00 to the October floor of $6.25 is +$0.25. The ceiling has moved only from $6.20 to $6.29, and this quarter it moved down. Last year they opened FY2025 at $5.65–$5.81 and printed $5.81, the original high end. The pattern is a conservative open, a rising floor, and a high end they hit rather than beat by a wide margin. Nicking the FY2026 high end is new for this cycle. It is one cent. It is also the first time in 2026 the top of the Core FFO range went the wrong way. Versus $5.81, the new midpoint is +7.9%, only +17 bps faster than the growth rate already in the July guide.

GAAP did not follow that path. January mid was $3.85. April mid was $3.925. July mid was $4.475. October mid is $4.10, a −$0.375 / −8.4% cut. Most of the July GAAP raise did not stick. The gain line in the earnings-to-Core-FFO bridge shrank by about $0.33 per share. Both can be true: operations hold Core FFO, and transaction gains, which sit in EPS, were marked down with the recycling range.

What moved, and what Q4 has to be

The contributions-plus-dispositions row is the sum of the two Prologis-share ranges. It is calculated, not its own series. G&A moved to $515 million–$525 million, a slightly higher expense. Realized development gains were left at $600–$700 million. Development starts, Prologis share, rose by the same $375 million midpoint as the owned-and-managed line, to $5,000 million–$5,750 million.

Q4 is arithmetic, not a guide. $1.50 + $1.63 + $1.60 = $4.73. The ex-promote quarters sum to the same $4.73, which is why the two full-year ranges can be identical. Subtracting $4.73 from $6.25 / $6.27 / $6.29 leaves $1.52 / $1.54 / $1.56. The midpoint residual is +6.9% versus 2025Q4 $1.44. That is another small step down from this quarter's +7.4%, and a long way from Q2's +11.6%. The $2.4 billion equity raise means Q4's share count is heavier than the first half. The distortion is about a penny, not a dime.

Same-store raise, same shape. Cash same-store has printed 8.8%, 8.5%, and 5.9%. A simple average that lands the 7.25% midpoint needs a Q4 near 5.8%, about +10 bps versus 2025Q4's 5.7%. The low end of the year is consistent with a Q4 near 4.8%. The high end needs about 6.8%. Net effective needs a Q4 near 4.8% to hit a 5.75% year, in line with 2025Q4's 4.7% and below the 5.7% just printed. The 25 bp raise locks in a strong first half. It does not require a hot fourth quarter.

Average occupancy has printed 95.4%, 94.9%, and 95.1%. The new year band of 95.25–95.50% needs a fourth-quarter average roughly in the mid-95s to mid-96s if the statistic were an equal-weighted average, which it is not. They ended the quarter at 95.6% period-end. The floor of the year guide is "hold the exit rate." The 95.75% tail they just cut would have required something closer to 96.6%. Arndt's "tightening, not a drop" matches that math.

Tone versus July. July was a list of increases and "the next phase of growth." October is still "excellent quarter," and the leasing number is still large. The opening risk is now the rate backup: demand should stay resilient, market starts should fall, replacement-cost rents sit 27% above market, and the capital-allocation bar "was already high, and in response, we've raised it even further." That sentence was not in the July script. Confidence in the year is higher because the range is 4 cents wide, not because the number went up.

Headline growth has been a two-beat pattern for two years. A promote-heavy quarter lifts consolidated revenue and Core FFO well above the rent roll. The next quarter gives that rate back. 2024Q4 was the first spike (strategic capital +95.4%, Core FFO +19.0%). 2025 spent four quarters giving it back, and Core FFO year-over-year went negative only because the base was promoted. Ex-promote Core FFO never printed a negative year-over-year rate in this window: the −4.0% in 2025Q4 was $1.44 versus a promoted $1.50; excluding promote it was $1.46 versus $1.42, or +2.8%. 2026Q1 and 2026Q2 re-accelerated. 2026Q3 gave the second spike back. It did not return to the trough.

The cluster that matters is the one where the lines meet. 2026Q3 total revenue +7.8%, rental revenue +7.4%, reported Core FFO +7.4%, and ex-promote Core FFO +7.3%. That 7–8% band is the run-rate. The +11% prints were not. The organic piece is softer than the cluster: cash same-store NOI stepped from 8.5% to 5.9%. Management still raised the full-year cash range because the first half carries a slower second half. Pricing power on rollover is not the break: the spread is narrower than a year ago and still strongly positive, and it ticked up from Q2's 36.9% to 38.0%.

What would change the read: another quarter in which rental revenue, not just strategic capital, decelerates by hundreds of basis points, or cash same-store NOI failing to hold the mid-5% area the second-half math now implies. What would confirm it: 2026Q4 Core FFO landing inside the 7–8% band with promote no longer doing the work, which is what "the same with and without promotes" is saying.

The live window is 2026Q4, read out on January 20, 2027, which is also inaugural 2027 guidance. The print settled the 2026 operating question and handed the street a tighter bar, not a new one. Consensus, where one was published at all, believes the year lands on $6.27. That is a fourth quarter of about $1.54. It does not believe in SEGRO earnings, a signed gigawatt, or a 2027 rent number. None of those are in the range.

Where they disagree is 2027, and management would not put it in the model. On the quarter now underway they do not disagree. A $6.27 composite is the new midpoint. Cash same-store was raised 25 bps. The occupancy ceiling was trimmed. Starts were raised because the year is already near $4.7 billion. Sales were cut because the bid-ask widened. Once the street has moved onto management's number, the easy part of the quarterly setup is in the model.

What management keeps repeating, and what the model does not contain: vacancy is on a path from a 7.5% peak to 7% and does not need to reach 3–5% for rents to grow, because Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Phoenix, Indianapolis, and Northern California are already at 5–6% market-rent growth with vacancies still in the mid-to-high 7s; replacement-cost rents 27% above market will keep competitive supply in check; the data-center supplier is a logistics vertical at 17% of U.S. new leasing and "upwards of 150 million square feet" through the decade; 1 gigawatt of letters of intent should start in 2027; SEGRO closes in the first half of 2027 and the January guide will pretend it has not. Caton's answer to the 2027 forecast was that it is "just early."

What would show management is early: a January guide, still ex-SEGRO, that puts 2027 cash same-store growth above the 7.0–7.5% 2026 range rather than back toward the 5.9% quarterly rate just printed. What would show the street is right to wait: Q4 Core FFO at $1.52 because occupancy does not build, disposition proceeds still missing in January, or a SEGRO timetable that pushes the close past the first half of 2027.

Peer prints on October 21, from their own 8-Ks, are the external check. First Industrial: in-service occupancy 94.1%, down from 94.9% in Q2; cash same-store NOI +5.6%; 2026 FFO midpoint +$0.01. EastGroup: cash same-property NOI +7.1%; FFO excluding items $2.45 versus $2.27; cash same-property guide raised to 7.2–7.8%. The sector is still raising same-store guides. First Industrial's sequential occupancy dip is the caution, and it is not this print. Snowflake and Carbon Arc were unavailable. The 60 million square feet, the $85 million of incremental NOI, the gigawatts, the 17%, and the 27% replacement-cost gap are call statements, not Daloopa tags.

Thirteen analysts asked. Nobody re-litigated the print. The hour was spent on whether a higher rate hurdle, a tighter occupancy range, and a gagged SEGRO close are consistent with raising development starts and same-store NOI. Tally: 11 well answered, 3 deflected. The deflections are all cost-of-capital questions. Heck's two-part question is scored separately. The street did not ask why net earnings guidance was cut by $0.375 at the midpoint while Core FFO was held. Burrows got the disposition explanation that likely sits under that cut. That is a missed question, not a dodge of one that was posed.

The operating half is usable without a translator. Goldsmith was told it is too early for a 2027 forecast, and was given a substitute: vacancy from a 7.5% peak to 7.1% and "on pace" for 7% by year-end, with six markets already at 5–6% market-rent growth without vacancy at 3–5%. Griffin was told the starts raise is a build-to-suit lump, not a lower spec hurdle. This quarter was about 80% spec. The year is still expected to finish 55–65% build-to-suit, and that pipeline is 20–25% larger than a year ago. Malhotra was told the occupancy move is technically a lower midpoint and, in Arndt's view, a tightening, and that same-store dollars are what was raised. Burrows was told acquisitions reflect what is already done and dispositions reflect caution plus a couple of deals slipping into next year. Kim was told a stable 1 gigawatt of letters of intent is a refilled bucket, not a stuck one. Yulico got Southern California by submarket: market occupancy 93.5%, Prologis nearly 97% there, Inland Empire healthier above about 600,000 square feet, South Bay Class A moving on aerospace. Thillman was told the turnover-cost uptick is mix, and that free rent declined sequentially inside a trailing-twelve-month disclosure he is not ready to call a trend. The filed ratio is still 4.4%, unchanged from Q2 and +120 bps versus 3.2%. Carroll was told rate-sensitive segments are a little slower and the data-center supply chain is the offset. Rodgers was told the published pipeline has not been hit by a moratorium, the 17% is strengthening, and a joint venture is optional, not required. Heck was told, cleanly, that the January guide will not include SEGRO.

The capital-markets half is where the answers stop. Tibone asked whether the roughly 20 bp move, to 5.7% on his reading of the development pool, is the first mark for higher market cap rates or mix. Letter described a regular review, ins and outs, and underwriting that already assumes cap-rate expansion, and then said it is hard to say whether that figure is where values are shaking out. The yes-or-no was not given. The 5.7% and the 20 bp are the analyst's figures. They were not re-pulled as a Daloopa series. Heck asked whether the rate move changes SEGRO economics. Arndt confirmed the regulatory limit, described capitalization that is already known, and gave no updated accretion or rate sensitivity. Thomas asked what specifically changed in acquisition and development returns, and whether data-center tenant-credit underwriting had changed. Arndt said the investment committee is using a reserve and that the last six weeks have made them more cautious. He gave no basis-point change. Letter said data-center margins quoted since 2023 are being preserved, and did not address tenant credit. A higher bar was asserted in prepared remarks and left as a word, not a spread.

Three pairs cannot both stand. One is still open on a market series. One rewrites the demand year. One was fixed on the same call and kept in October. The GAAP earnings-guide cut is not a fourth. It lines up with a smaller real-estate gain.

Soft tensions that are not cards: a Q2 2025 occupancy line that said "down just 10%" when the move was 10 basis points, from 95.2% to 95.1%; "fewer starts" for the market versus a higher Prologis starts guide, reconciled as build-to-suit; a historical rule that pricing power needed about 5% vacancy, against this cycle's mid-single-digit rent growth with vacancies still in the 7s; a transcript correction of the Europe portfolio from 363 million to 368 million square feet; letters of intent moving from 1.3 gigawatts to about 1 gigawatt because starts leave the stage and the stage refills; the replacement-cost gap moving from about 20% to 27%, which he described as a new level. The GAAP guide cut and the Core FFO penny lift are compatible. So are the occupancy series, once same-store is not pasted over the Prologis-share figures Tim spoke.

Higher rates, on this call, slow deals and market starts. They do not slow leasing. One operating company was spoken: SEGRO. No competitor, no customer, and no supplier was named. The tenant list is the supplemental, not the transcript. Amazon was not discussed, and Amazon is why top-10 rent share rose.

Macro

Dan's frame: demand should remain resilient in a higher-rate environment, construction costs and financing are more expensive, return requirements are higher, and rents needed for new construction have expanded to 27% above market. "All else equal, we expect fewer starts." That is worse for a merchant developer who has to start spec into today's rent, and better for an owner of existing stock. Prologis is not applying that hurdle to itself one-for-one. Owned-and-managed starts guidance rose to $6,000 million–$6,750 million. The reconciliation is build-to-suit. The rate move "will slow transaction activity and could put some pressure on values." U.S. transaction volume is "up 20% year-to-date," but the bid-ask is wider and volumes should moderate. Dispositions were guided with that caution. About 95% of Prologis debt is fixed, with about 8 years of average life, so a higher spot rate changes the next dollar of development and the clearing price of assets. It does not reprice the existing stack. Those debt figures are the call, not a series pulled here. No basis-point add to the required return was given.

Do not mix the two rent series. Rollover is decelerating: net effective 38.0% versus 49.4%, −1,140 bps, and cash 23.4% versus 29.4%, −600 bps. Market rents are just turning up: another 50 bp in the U.S., the third positive quarter, with six named markets on pace for 5–6% this year. A model that holds rollover at the 2025 rate will be too high. A model that assumes market rents are still falling will be too low. The in-place mark-to-market, spoken at 16% and about $780 million of NOI, is a different gap from the 27% replacement-cost gap. Do not add them. In July the spoken mark was 17% and nearly $800 million. Europe market vacancy was 5.3%, with market rents +70 bp in the quarter and +275 bp year over year. Other Americas occupancy was 95.9% versus 96.8%, −90 bps, which is the "Mexico is normalizing" comment. U.S. owned-and-managed period-end occupancy was 95.7%, +30 bps. Europe was 95.9%, +70 bps. Asia was 93.8%, +100 bps.

Consumer confidence, CPI, and PMI were not cited. July's comment that housing-related customers were about a quarter of the book and "not on their front foot" was not repeated and was not withdrawn. Silence is not a recovery.

Companies

Kuehne + Nagel entered the disclosed top 10 at 0.8%. CEVA was 0.8% a year ago and has no 2026Q3 value in that series. That is a swap inside the 15.3%, not evidence a lease ended and not evidence a new signing. Do not model a CEVA vacancy.

What not to conclude. Do not turn 63 million square feet of absorption, 7.1% vacancy, the 27% gap, the 17%, or 5.8 gigawatts into Daloopa fundamentals. Do not read the Core FFO slowdown from +11.6% to +7.4% as a sequential earnings decline. Ex-promote Q3 is $1.61. Do not model rollover staying at 49.4%. Do not paste Tim's spoken 95.6% / 95.1% into a model as if they were the same-store lines. Do not treat Amazon's absence from the transcript as absence from the portfolio.

The hold is the trajectory, not the level. Prologis is still the logistics landlord that hits a tight bar: nine beats and three in-lines in twelve quarters, a rising floor, and a year that now sits on the only published street figure. The operating re-acceleration versus last year's third quarter is real, and it is not the same thing as an accelerating business. Reported growth gave the promote back. Rental growth has settled just under 8% and is no longer speeding up. Rent spreads are still high and still narrowing. The same-store raise is the first half. The things management is repeating for 2027 — SEGRO, the gigawatt, rents that do not need a 5% vacancy — are exactly what the $6.27 does not contain, and they would not put a number on them. That is a reason to wait for January, not a reason to treat this print as a new growth phase.