Financial Trends -- 4/10
Dominant global logistics REIT with a high-quality, recurring rental base and positive, growing Core
FFO in absolute dollars. But on a trajectory basis the financial trend is decelerating, not
strengthening: the cleanest top line (rental revenue) slowed from ~+12% to +6.9% YoY as record rent
spreads normalized (net-effective rent change fell from 50%+ to 27.1%), per-share Core FFO growth
dropped from +24% (2022) to a -1% trough (2024) and recovered only to mid-single digits, and total
debt has outpaced revenue for five straight quarters with leverage drifting toward ~5x EBITDA.
Operative metrics are Core FFO and same-store NOI, not GAAP margin. Penalty: -1 (debt > revenue 5
consecutive quarters).
Weight: 25%
Quarterly Rental Revenue Trajectory ($M)
Clear multi-year deceleration in the cleanest top line: ~+12% (Q2'24) to +6.9% (Q1'26).
Rental revenue growth is slowing as record rent spreads normalize — net-effective rent change
collapsed from 50%+ peaks to 27.1% (Q1'26) and occupancy eased off the ~97% peak to ~95%. Revenue
growth alone is not financial strength here; the trajectory is downward.
Core FFO ($M, diluted) & Per Share
Core FFO positive and growing in dollars, but per-share growth has
cooled to mid-single digits. Annual Core FFO/share growth ran +24% (2022) to +9% (2023) to
a -1% trough (2024), recovering only to +4.5% (2025) and +5.6% YoY in Q1'26. A 2024 trough with
modest stabilization, supported by same-store NOI cash growth re-accelerating to +8.8% in Q1'26.
Net: long-run deceleration, recent stabilization — "stable," not "accelerating."
Annual Financial Summary (FY ends December)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue ($M) | $4,759M | $5,974M | $8,023M | $8,202M | $8,790M |
| Rev YoY | — | +25.5% | +34.3% | +2.2% | +7.2% |
| Core FFO / share ($) | $4.15 | $5.16 | $5.61 | $5.56 | $5.81 |
| Core FFO/sh YoY | — | +24.3% | +8.7% | -0.9% | +4.5% |
| Adjusted EBITDA ($M) | $4,611M | $5,587M | $7,048M | $7,162M | $7,431M |
| Core FFO ($M) | $3,173M | $4,188M | $5,335M | $5,306M | $5,562M |
| WA Diluted Shares (M) | 765 | 812 | 952 | 954 | 957 |
| Total PLD-Share Debt ($M) | $20,626M | $27,637M | $33,191M | $36,114M | $40,919M |
| Debt YoY | — | +34.0% | +20.1% | +8.8% | +13.3% |
Key trends
- Revenue growth decelerating post-merger: From +34% (2023, DCT/DRE M&A) down to +2.2% (2024) and +7.2% (2025); rental revenue slowing from ~+12% to +6.9% YoY
- Per-share Core FFO growth cooled: +24% (2022) to a -1% trough (2024), recovering only to +4.5% (2025) — long-run deceleration, recent stabilization
- Share count flat (non-dilutive): ~957M weighted diluted shares, roughly flat since the 2023 DRE-merger step-up; no dilution but also no per-share buyback tailwind
- Debt rising every year: $20.6B (2021) to $40.9B (2025), outpacing revenue growth — leverage drifting toward ~5x EBITDA
Leverage -- Debt Outpacing Revenue (The Penalty)
The -1 penalty: total PLD-share debt has grown faster than rental
(and total) revenue for five consecutive quarters (Q1'25 to Q1'26). Debt/Adj. EBITDA has
crept from ~4.3x to a 5.3x peak (4.8x latest). This is partly structural — REITs debt-fund
development — but it is genuine leverage creep outpacing the recurring income base. The balance
sheet is termed out (in-place debt cost ~3.2%, ~8-yr average maturity), so this is creep, not
stress.
Same-Store NOI & Rent Change (Operational KPIs)
| Metric | Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg Occupancy (%) | 94.9% | 94.9% | 94.8% | 95.3% | 95.3% |
| Same-Store NOI Cash Growth (%) | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 8.8% |
| Net Effective Rent Change (%) | 43.4% | 44.2% | 42.5% | 37.5% | 27.1% |
Same-store NOI cash growth is re-accelerating (+8.8% Q1'26) — a
genuine positive offset — even as rent spreads normalize fast. Net-effective rent change
collapsed from the 40s%+ to 27.1%, the mechanical driver of the rental-revenue deceleration.
Occupancy is stable around ~95% after easing off the ~97% peak. The re-accelerating SS-NOI is why
the base profile is a 5 and not lower.
Score Rationale
Score of 4/10 reflects a decelerating financial trajectory in an otherwise high-quality REIT. Base profile maps to ~5 on the rubric; a -1 penalty for debt growing faster than revenue for five consecutive quarters lands it at 4.
Base case ~5:
- Rental revenue YoY stable-to-decelerating (~+12% to +6.9%)
- Per-share Core FFO growth roughly flat-to-modest (+24% peak to -1% trough to +4.5%), not expanding 100bps+
- Share count flat (non-dilutive, but no per-share tailwind)
- FCF (Core FFO) positive and growing in dollars ($5.31B FY24 to $5.56B FY25)
- Re-accelerating same-store NOI cash growth (+8.8% Q1'26) is a positive offset
Penalty applied (-1):
- Total PLD-share debt has grown faster than rental (and total) revenue for five consecutive quarters (Q1'25 to Q1'26), with Debt/Adj. EBITDA creeping from ~4.3x to a 5.3x peak (4.8x latest) — genuine leverage creep outpacing the recurring income base
No other penalties: FCF positive (no -2), no >10% dilution, and GAAP operating income is not cleanly declining alongside revenue (the noise is disposition-gain driven; EBITDA is up). Positive, growing Core FFO keeps the quality gate a clear "yes."
Score: 5 base - 1 (debt > revenue 5 consecutive quarters) = 4/10.
Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id: 536). Fiscal year ends December 31. Operative REIT metrics are Core FFO and same-store NOI, not GAAP margin. All financials in USD.