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LNG | Earnings Review

Verdict: operating beat-and-raise; Stage 3 volume chapter is on. Just-reported Q2 revenue of $5,732M beat FMP ~$4.92B by +$816M / +16.6% and rose +23.5% YoY (vs Q1’s softer +7.8%). Consolidated Adj. EBITDA of $1,804M rose +27.4% YoY vs $1,416M. Export cargoes 184 (+19.5%) and volumes 672 TBtu (+22.2%) break a multi-year ~flat throughput plateau — the cleanest signal that CCL Stage 3 + reliability are turning the growth engine back on.

Key metrics. Short-term/marketing LNG revenue more than doubled YoY to $1,997M (+191%); long-term SPA LNG was essentially flat at $3,548M (−0.8%). Consol. DCF $1.43B (+26.5% YoY). GAAP diluted EPS $14.65 is the mirror image of Q1’s −$16.65 IPM MTM loss — ignore GAAP EPS; adjusted NI ~$632M (~$3.02/sh) was a slight miss vs FMP $3.11.

Guidance. Second consecutive full-year raise: consol. adj. EBITDA $7.9B–$8.4B (mid $8.15B, +$650M vs Q1 mid; new low above prior high) and DCF $5.3B–$5.8B (mid $5.55B, +$550M). Production tightened to 53–54 mt. Bridge: ~$300M production (+0.5 mt at $10–13 margins) / ~$200M lock residual + HH / $100–150M optimization. Mid guide is +17% YoY vs FY25 adj. EBITDA $6.943B.

Tone. Constructively more confident than Q1 on self-help (reliability, debottleneck, Bechtel EPC + LNTP for SPL Phase 1); more sober on Hormuz resolution timing. Retain $500M guide bands despite <50 TBtu residual open — classic under-promise discipline.

Contradictions. One low–medium: Q4’25 “over 5,000 cargoes delivered” vs Q2’26 “5,000th later this month.” Prefer Q2 framing (consistent with multi-quarter cargo math). All guidance/ops/commercial messaging is sequential and consistent.

Catalysts ahead. Train 7 first LNG (imminent) / SC fall 2026; street rebase to $7.9–$8.4B adj. EBITDA; Q3 call first formal 2027 production/open guide (~Oct 29); SPL Phase 1 FID early 2027; Europe winter storage tightness as margin tailwind.

Primary operating KPIs are Consol. Adj. EBITDA, DCF, cargoes, and export volumes — not GAAP gross margin or EPS (cost of sales / NI dominated by unrealized commodity and IPM derivative marks). YoY = same quarter prior year only.

Revenue drivers (above consolidated)

| Metric | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 | 2025Q2 | 2025Q3 | 2025Q4 | 2026Q1 | 2026Q2 | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | LT SPA LNG rev ($M) | $2,928 | $3,400 | $3,043 | $2,755 | $2,903 | $3,443 | $3,768 | $3,575 | $3,481 | $3,980 | $4,751 | $3,548 | | LT SPA YoY % | — | — | −18.6% | +0.1% | −0.9% | +1.3% | +23.8% | +29.8% | +19.9% | +15.6% | +26.1% | −0.8% | | ST / mktg LNG rev ($M) | $835 | $912 | $793 | $229 | $565 | $758 | $1,276 | $687 | $630 | $1,201 | $1,256 | $1,997 | | ST/mktg YoY % | — | — | −75.6% | −77.9% | −32.3% | −16.9% | +60.9% | +200.0% | +11.5% | +58.4% | −1.6% | +190.7% | | Cargoes exported (#) | 152 | 169 | 166 | 155 | 158 | 167 | 168 | 154 | 163 | 185 | 187 | 184 | | Cargoes YoY % | — | — | −0.6% | +4.0% | +3.9% | −1.2% | +1.2% | −0.6% | +3.2% | +10.8% | +11.3% | +19.5% | | Volumes exported (TBtu) | 545 | 616 | 602 | 553 | 568 | 604 | 609 | 550 | 586 | 679 | 688 | 672 | | Volumes YoY % | — | — | −0.2% | +3.2% | +4.2% | −1.9% | +1.2% | −0.5% | +3.2% | +12.4% | +13.0% | +22.2% |

Driver read (Q2’26 vs Q2’25): Physical throughput is the story — cargoes +19.5%, volumes +22.2%. ST/marketing captured the volume + tight-market margin step-up; LT SPA was roughly flat on HH-linked pricing mix.

Consolidated P&L trajectory

| Metric | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 | 2025Q2 | 2025Q3 | 2025Q4 | 2026Q1 | 2026Q2 | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Total revenues ($M) | $4,159 | $4,823 | $4,253 | $3,251 | $3,763 | $4,436 | $5,444 | $4,641 | $4,441 | $5,450 | $5,868 | $5,732 | | Revenue YoY % | — | — | −41.8% | −20.7% | −9.5% | −8.0% | +28.0% | +42.8% | +18.0% | +22.9% | +7.8% | +23.5% | | Consol. Adj. EBITDA ($M) | $1,663 | $1,650 | $1,773 | $1,322 | $1,483 | $1,577 | $1,872 | $1,416 | $1,608 | $2,047 | $2,333 | $1,804 | | Adj. EBITDA YoY % | — | — | −50.7% | −28.8% | −10.8% | −4.4% | +5.6% | +7.1% | +8.4% | +29.8% | +24.6% | +27.4% | | Adj. EBITDA margin % | 40.0% | 34.2% | 41.7% | 40.7% | 39.4% | 35.6% | 34.4% | 30.5% | 36.2% | 37.6% | 39.8% | 31.5% | | Consol. DCF ($B) | $1.39 | $1.34 | $1.44 | $0.92 | $1.06 | $1.29 | $1.56 | $1.13 | $1.86 | $1.75 | $2.00 | $1.43 | | DCF YoY % | — | — | −55.3% | −41.0% | −23.7% | −3.7% | +8.3% | +22.8% | +75.5% | +35.7% | +28.2% | +26.5% | | Diluted EPS ($) | $7.03 | $5.76 | $2.13 | $3.84 | $3.93 | $4.33 | $1.57 | $7.30 | $4.75 | $10.68 | −$16.65 | $14.65 | | Diluted EPS YoY % | — | — | −90.4% | −31.6% | −44.1% | −24.8% | −26.3% | +90.1% | +20.9% | +146.7% | n/m | +100.7% |

Revenue & Adj. EBITDA — absolute levels ($M)

YoY growth trajectory (volume is the signal)

| Quarter | Revenue YoY | Cargoes YoY | Volumes YoY | Adj. EBITDA YoY | Adj. EBITDA margin YoY bps | DCF YoY | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 2024Q2 | −20.7% | +4.0% | +3.2% | −28.8% | −463 | −41.0% | | 2024Q3 | −9.5% | +3.9% | +4.2% | −10.8% | −58 | −23.7% | | 2024Q4 | −8.0% | −1.2% | −1.9% | −4.4% | +134 | −3.7% | | 2025Q1 | +28.0% | +1.2% | +1.2% | +5.6% | −730 | +8.3% | | 2025Q2 | +42.8% | −0.6% | −0.5% | +7.1% | −1,015 | +22.8% | | 2025Q3 | +18.0% | +3.2% | +3.2% | +8.4% | −320 | +75.5% | | 2025Q4 | +22.9% | +10.8% | +12.4% | +29.8% | +201 | +35.7% | | 2026Q1 | +7.8% | +11.3% | +13.0% | +24.6% | +537 | +28.2% | | 2026Q2 | +23.5% | +19.5% | +22.2% | +27.4% | +96 | +26.5% |

Annual context (FY2021–FY2025)

| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Total revenues ($M) | $15,864 | $33,428 | $20,394 | $15,703 | $19,976 | | Revenue YoY % | — | +110.7% | −39.0% | −23.0% | +27.2% | | Consol. Adj. EBITDA ($M) | $4,867 | $11,564 | $8,771 | $6,155 | $6,943 | | Adj. EBITDA YoY % | — | +137.6% | −24.2% | −29.8% | +12.8% | | Consol. DCF ($B) | n/a | $10.05 | $7.50 | $4.71 | $6.28 | | Cargoes exported (#) | n/a | 638 | 637 | 646 | 670 |

Trajectory diagnosis — Accelerating. 2024 trough (price normalization, not volume loss) → 2025 re-base → 2026 H1 volume-led step-up. Adj. EBITDA YoY stepped from mid-single digits through mid-2025 to +25–30% since Q4’25. Volumes finally broke out of a multi-year plateau (+12% → +13% → +22%). 1H’26 Adj. EBITDA ~$4.14B is already ~51% of the new $8.15B FY mid.

Headline: large revenue beat + strong Adj. EBITDA; slight adj. EPS miss vs FMP; GAAP EPS is IPM noise. Pattern = consistent operating beater, mixed revenue historically, noisy GAAP EPS.

This quarter vs consensus

| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Variance | Beat/Miss | |---|---|---|---|---| | Total Revenue | $4.916B (FMP) | $5,732M | +$816M / +16.6% | BEAT | | GAAP Diluted EPS | $3.11 (FMP street) | $14.65 | +$11.54 | BEAT (GAAP vs street — not apples-to-apples) | | Adjusted EPS (implied) | $3.11 FMP / ~$2.89 Zacks | ~$3.02 (FMP; ~$632M adj. NI) | −$0.09 vs FMP (−2.9%) | MISS vs FMP / BEAT vs Zacks | | Consol. Adj. EBITDA | Street not centralized (~$1.6–1.7B dir.) | $1,804M | ~+$100–200M vs prior-cycle Street | BEAT (directional) | | Consol. DCF | n/a | $1.43B | n/a | n/a |

Historical beat/miss heatmap (FMP consensus; Daloopa actuals)

Beat rates & pattern

| Window | Revenue Beat Rate | EPS Beat Rate (FMP) | Notes | |---|---|---|---| | L12Q | 8/12 = 67% BEAT | 8/12 = 67% BEAT | EPS misses often MTM-driven | | L4Q | 2/4 = 50% BEAT | 2/4 = 50% BEAT | 2026Q2 rev beat is largest of L4 (+16.6%) | | L8Q Adj. EBITDA (dir.) | — | ~7–8/8 BEAT | Cleanest operating pattern |

Pattern: Consistent operating beater (Adj. EBITDA / DCF / volumes); Mixed revenue; Noisy GAAP EPS. Management reinforces with beat-and-raise culture (FY26 EBITDA raised twice; new low above prior high).

Management’s variance explanation (Q2 call)

1. Higher LNG volumes — 184 cargoes / 672 TBtu (~+20% YoY); Stage 3 early (Train 6 SC June; Train 7 first LNG imminent); no major planned multi-train outage; reliability / debottleneck cut downtime.
2. Elevated marketing margins — Hormuz / Iran ~18 mt ME shortfall; TTF/JKM elevated vs soft HH.
3. Optimization locked since Q1 (~$100–150M of the $650M guide raise).
4. GAAP NI/EPS — non-cash IPM derivative FV gains; mid-June NPNS election on ~75% of IPM volumes should cut future NI volatility.

Second consecutive full-year raise; new adj. EBITDA low ($7.9B) sits above prior high ($7.75B). Midpoint $8.15B = +$650M vs Q1 mid and +$1.15B / +16% vs initial FY26 mid $7.0B; +17% YoY vs FY25 $6.943B. Cheniere does not guide revenue, GAAP EPS, or margin %.

New guide (issued with Q2 results)

| Metric | New guide (2026-08-06) | Notes | |---|---|---| | Consol. adj. EBITDA | $7.9B – $8.4B (mid $8.15B) | 2nd raise; new low > prior high | | DCF | $5.3B – $5.8B (mid $5.55B) | +$550M mid vs Q1 | | Production | 53–54 mt (mid 53.5) | Tightened from 52–54 | | CQP dist. / unit | $3.10 – $3.40 | Unchanged (fund SPL LNTP) | | Open residual 2026 | <1 mt / <50 TBtu | $1 margin → <$50M EBITDA | | Band width | $500M retained | Despite high visibility |

Guide evolution — Initial → Prior → New

| Metric | Initial (Q4’25) | Prior (Q1’26) | New (Q2’26) | Δ vs Prior mid | Δ vs Initial mid | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Adj. EBITDA low | $6.75B | $7.25B | $7.9B | | | | Adj. EBITDA high | $7.25B | $7.75B | $8.4B | | | | Adj. EBITDA mid | $7.00B | $7.50B | $8.15B | +$650M (+8.7%) | +$1.15B (+16.4%) | | DCF low | $4.35B | $4.75B | $5.3B | | | | DCF high | $4.85B | $5.25B | $5.8B | | | | DCF mid | $4.60B | $5.00B | $5.55B | +$550M (+11%) | +$950M (+20.7%) | | Production (mt) | 51–53 | 52–54 | 53–54 | +0.5 mid | +1.5 mid |

Waterfall — FY2026 adj. EBITDA mid (bridge)

| Step | Adj. EBITDA mid | Driver | |---|---:|---| | Initial FY26 mid (Q4’25) | $7.00B | Year-start base | | + Q1 raise | +$0.50B → $7.50B | Production / Stage 3 / opt | | + Production (+0.5 mt @ $10–13) | +~$0.30B | ~1/3 Stage 3; >2/3 reliability | | + Margin lock / HH | +~$0.20B | Residual open + HH path | | + Optimization locked | +~$0.10–0.15B | Upstream/downstream | | New (Q2) mid | $8.15B | +$650M vs Q1 | | FY25 actual | $6.94B | New mid +17% YoY | | Run-rate (Stage3+MS 8–9 @ $2.50–$3) | ~$7.65B mid | $7.3B–$8.0B |

Implied growth & YTD vs guide

| Metric | FY2025 actual | FY2026 new mid | YoY at mid | |---|---:|---:|---:| | Adj. EBITDA | $6.943B | $8.15B | +17.4% | | DCF (CEI-aligned) | ~$5.29B | $5.55B | +4.9% | | Production | ~46 mt / 670 cargoes | 53.5 mt mid | ~+16% |

| Period | Adj. EBITDA | YoY | Cargoes | Export TBtu | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 2026Q1 | $2.333B | +25% | 187 | 688 | | 2026Q2 | $1.804B | +27% | 184 | 672 | | 1H’26 | ~$4.14B | | 371 | | | H2 residual (vs mid) | ~$4.01B | | | Entire +$650M raise sits in H2 residual |

2027 setup tension: 2026 mid already at/above long-run $7.3–8.0B because of elevated $10–13 margins. Normalized $2.50–$3 would step down unless volume + locked 2027 cargoes (~1.5 mt at $8+ margins) offset. Formal 2027 production guide due on Q3 call.

Management tone (Q2 vs Q1)

| Dimension | Q1 | Q2 | Change | |---|---|---|---| | Overall confidence | High — first large raise | Higher — second raise; low > prior high | More confident | | Geopolitics | Acute shock; hope for resolution | Sustained disruption accepted | More sober on timing | | Operations | Stage 3 early; resiliency paying off | Debottleneck as structural / repeatable | Stronger language | | Growth / FID | Budgeting LNTPs | EPC signed, LNTP live, financing launched | Execution milestone | | Accounting quality | Large IPM NI loss | NPNS on ~75% IPM | Quality upgrade |

Revenue trajectory: post-trough recovery → peak → cool-down → just reaccelerated. From late-2024 negative YoY, flipped positive in 2025Q1 (+3,603 bps Accel), peaked +42.8% in 2025Q2, cooled through 2025Q3–2026Q1, then reaccelerated +1,572 bps in 2026Q2 to +23.5%.

| Quarter | Revenue YoY | Rev Accel (bps) | EPS YoY | Signal | |---|---:|---:|---:|---| | 2024Q3 | −9.5% | +1,123 | −44.1% | Still negative | | 2024Q4 | −8.0% | +150 | −24.8% | Trough exit setup | | 2025Q1 | +28.0% | +3,603 | −26.3% | Primary inflection (rev sign-flip) | | 2025Q2 | +42.8% | +1,475 | +90.1% | Peak growth rate | | 2025Q3 | +18.0% | −2,474 | +20.9% | Hard decel (still +) | | 2025Q4 | +22.9% | +484 | +146.7% | Mild reaccel; EPS peak (MTM) | | 2026Q1 | +7.8% | −1,507 | NM | Rate trough; GAAP EPS loss | | 2026Q2 | +23.5% | +1,572 | +100.7% | Reacceleration (just-reported) |

Why now: Stage 3 capacity + reliability (Davis: >2/3 of production raise is resiliency, not Stage 3 alone) + elevated marketing margins + easier maintenance comps vs 2025 multi-train outages. GAAP EPS remains low signal until NPNS normalizes the series — prefer volumes, Adj. EBITDA, DCF.

| # | Catalyst | Timing | What to watch | Bias | |---|---|---|---|---| | 1 | CCL Stage 3 Train 7 first LNG + SC | First LNG imminent; SC fall 2026 | Completes Stage 3 (~10+ mtpa); residual guide risk | Positive execution | | 2 | Street rebase to $7.9–$8.4B adj. EBITDA | Immediate | Models still on prior $7.25–7.75B need +$0.65B mid | Positive | | 3 | FY26 production / reliability outperformance | Through YE26 | Mid 53.5 mt; residual open <50 TBtu | Positive | | 4 | Q3 print + first 2027 production guide | ~2026-10-29 | Mid-50s mt frame; open capacity color | High info density | | 5 | SPL Phase 1 FID (Train 7 + BOG) | Regs later 2026; FID early 2027 | Bechtel LSTK ~$4.7B; >6 mtpa; fully commercialized | Multi-year growth | | 6 | CCL Midscale 8–9 + debottleneck | >48% complete; SC 2H28 | Ahead of schedule | Growth pipeline | | 7 | FERC midscale uprate (~+5 mtpa) | Process over ~next year | High end not in current run-rate guide | Upside option | | 8 | CCL Expansion Phase 1 SPAs | 12–18 months mid-single-digit mt | Premium $2.50–$3; soft on 20 mt at that fee | Commercial | | 9 | Europe winter / Hormuz path | Q3–Q4 into winter | Storage tough to 70%; each month Hormuz ≈ −5 ppt storage | Margin tailwind / vol | | 10 | 2027 open capacity locks | Ongoing | ~1.5 mt locked at $8+ margins | De-risks Stage 3 year-1 | | 11 | Buybacks + dividend step-up | Continuous; Q3 Board | Q2 2.2M sh / $550M; path ~175M sh; ≥10% DPS growth | Capital return | | 12 | IPM NPNS accounting | Mid-June 2026 onward | Cleaner GAAP NI path | Earnings quality |

Near-term (0–6 mo): Train 7 SC, residual 2H margin capture, Q3’s 2027 guide.
Medium-term (6–18 mo): SPL Phase 1 FID, CCL Phase 1 commercialization, FERC uprate monetization.

Call: 2026-08-06 — Fusco / Feygin / Davis. Six analysts; 9 fully well-answered, 1 soft on multi-train SPA sizing, 1 partial deflection (2027 maintenance calendar).

| # | Analyst / Firm | Topic | Badge | |---|---|---|---| | 1a | Theresa Chen — Barclays | Winter Asia/Europe balance; SPA offtake | Well Answered | | 1b | Theresa Chen — Barclays | China LNG flexibility limits | Well Answered | | 2a | Jeremy Tonet — JPMorgan | SPA tone with higher prices | Well Answered | | 2b | Jeremy Tonet — JPMorgan | Ops outperformance; effective capacity | Well Answered | | 3a | Spiro Dounis — Citi | Pre/post-Hormuz commercial; SPAs past 75 mtpa | Well Answered (soft multi-train) | | 3b | Spiro Dounis — Citi | Nitrogen / feed-gas toolkit | Well Answered | | 4a | Keith Stanley — Wolfe | FERC midscale uprate timing | Well Answered | | 4b | Keith Stanley — Wolfe | $650M guide bridge | Well Answered | | 5 | Jean Ann Salisbury — BofA | IPM NPNS / NI volatility | Well Answered | | 6 | Olivia Halferty Foster — Goldman | 2026 maint done; 2027 major turnarounds | Deflected (partial) |

Highest-signal answers

$650M bridge (Stanley / Davis): +0.5 mt production × $10–13 ≈ +$300M; residual open lock + HH ≈ +$200M; optimization $100–150M. Still <50 TBtu open. 2027 physical locks now ~1.5 mt at $8+.

Production split (Tonet / Davis): Started year 51–53 mt → now 53–54. ≤1/3 Stage 3 early ramp; >2/3 resiliency / debottleneck / less downtime. Fin fans: same amperage, >40% more airflow.

SPA discipline (Chen / Dounis / Anatol): Comfortable mid-single-digit mt for CCL Phase 1 over 12–18 months at premium fees; less comfortable that ~20 mt clears at $2.50–$3 given >100 mt industry FID hunting offtake.

IPM accounting (Salisbury / Davis): NPNS mid-June on ~75% of IPM volumes (~6 of 8 deals). Counterfactual: of 22 quarters since ’21, 6 had negative NI from unrealized derivatives → would have been 2.

Soft gap (Foster): 2027 major turnaround calendar deferred to Nov production guide — only structurally incomplete answer.

Street model updates: second raise with low > prior high; production mid +0.5 mt; residual open <50 TBtu; cleaner GAAP NI post-NPNS; SPA pacing mid-single-digit mt / 12–18 mo — not a multi-train wave.

Only one genuine contradiction across five transcripts (Q2’25 → Q2’26). All guidance raises, production revisions, Stage 3 acceleration, and market-outlook evolution are labeled sequential updates, not contradictions.

Not contradictions (checked): sequential FY26 EBITDA/DCF/production raises; open capacity sell-down; $8+ run-rate vs elevated 2026 margins (self-reconciled by Davis); CQP distribution held for LNTP; SPL FID timeline tightening with EPC/LNTP milestones; Europe storage outlook worsening as Hormuz persists.

Defining macro is Middle East geopolitics + Europe storage — not rates or consumer demand.

Macro

| Theme | Management color | Read-through | |---|---|---| | Hormuz / Iran | Q2 market “defined by” Iran war / Hormuz closure; Qatar+UAE shortfall ≈ 18 mt; LNG tanker recovery <10% of pre-conflict vs crude ~25% | Constructive for non-Hormuz supply (US Gulf); energy-security premium | | Europe storage | ~11 bcm deficit (~100 cargoes); tough to 70%, much less 80%; each extra month Hormuz ≈ −5 ppt storage; ±1°C winter ≈ ±10 ppt | Bullish winter TTF/JKM optionality; worse for EU industrials short storage | | China flexibility | H1 imports −10%; “at its limit for solving this issue for the world” | Next tightness via price / Europe–Asia cargo competition, not more CN demand destruction | | Price structure | TTF/JKM/Brent hold geo premium; HH stable — “not constrained by U.S. natural gas” | Classic US liquefier export-basis setup | | FID wave | >100 mt FID-ed since start’25 still seeking end users; Cheniere stays out of “race to the bottom” | Worse for under-commercialized merchant FIDs; better for premium-reliability platforms | | Rates / consumer | No direct commentary | No signal |

Cross-company map

| If you own… | Q2 call implication | |---|---| | US LNG exporters (LNG, quality peers) | Strong: reliability premium, high margins, Europe/Asia tightness, policy support | | Middle East LNG (QatarEnergy, UAE) | Weak near-term volumes/logistics; chokepoint risk | | EPC / turbomachinery (Bechtel, Baker Hughes) | Strong: ~$4.7B Bechtel EPC + BKR turbines + multiyear Sabine services | | European gas-intensive industry / utilities short storage | Elevated winter cost/risk | | Late-cycle US LNG FIDs without SPAs | Harder offtake; race-to-bottom pricing | | US gas upstream with export/IPM links | Mildly better (global-index IPMs; slight HH lift ~$200M to guide) | | Consumer discretionary / rate-sensitive equities | No signal |

Named suppliers: Bechtel (SPL Phase 1 LSTK), Baker Hughes (turbines + fleet upgrades), Hudson (fin fans, +40% airflow). Policy: constructive Washington dialogue (Energy Sec. Wright, Burgum, FERC Chair Swett).

| Call | Detail | |---|---| | Operating print | Large rev BEAT (+16.6%); Adj. EBITDA +27% YoY; volumes +22%; slight adj. EPS miss | | Trajectory | Accelerating — revenue reaccel +1,572 bps; volume YoY stepped to +22% | | Guide quality | Second raise; new floor above old ceiling; mid +17% YoY vs FY25 | | Pattern | Consistent operating beater; ignore GAAP EPS until NPNS bites | | What matters next | Train 7 SC; street rebase to $7.9–8.4B; Q3 2027 production guide; SPL FID early 2027 | | Risks | Train 7 slip; rapid Hormuz normalize + warm winter; SPA competition from ~100 mt FID’d capacity; don’t annualize $10–13 margins into 2027 run-rate |

Internal sources (SharePoint / OneNote / Outlook / Excel models): unavailable this run — skipped. Primary sources: Daloopa fundamentals (company_id 949), Cheniere transcripts Q2’25–Q2’26, FMP consensus snapshots in the run folder.