Financial Trends -- 8.0/10
- Revenue recovered to $20.0B in FY2025 from the $15.7B trough in FY2024 (+27% YoY), approaching the FY2023 level of $20.4B. Quarterly YoY revenue turned positive in Q1 2025 and remained positive through Q4 2025
- Adj. EBITDA grew from $6.155B to $6.94B (+12.7% YoY), confirming FY2024 as the trough. Management guided FY2024 as the trough on the Q3 2024 call and delivered
- CEI DCF surged 42% from $3.73B to $5.30B, significantly outpacing EBITDA growth. The gap reflects debt paydown reducing interest expense -- a compounding benefit as the balance sheet deleverages
- Diluted shares declined from 242.6M (FY2023) to 220.3M (FY2025), a 9.2% reduction over two years. The $10B buyback authorization through 2030 targets 175-200M shares outstanding
- LNG volumes grew 3.9% to 2,416 TBtu as Stage 3 trains began contributing. Volume growth should accelerate as Trains 5-7 come online in 2026
- Operating margin expanded from 39.0% to 45.6% in the normalized comparison (FY2024 to FY2025). The FY2023 margin of 75.9% was inflated by derivative gains and is not a normalized baseline
| Metric | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | $6.75B | $7.25B |
| CEI DCF | $4.35B | $4.85B |
- FY2026 EBITDA guidance of $6.75-$7.25B implies roughly flat to modest growth vs. FY2025 ($6.94B). The midpoint of $7.0B represents ~1% growth
- FY2026 DCF guidance of $4.35-$4.85B is below FY2025 actual of $5.30B. This decline reflects a discrete tax benefit in FY2025 that will not recur -- underlying operational DCF growth continues
- Management has a 100% guidance hit rate (10/10 promises delivered or beaten) and follows a pattern of guiding conservatively, raising mid-year, and beating. FY2025 DCF of $5.30B was $450M above the high end of original guidance
- The guide-raise-beat pattern suggests FY2026 actuals will likely land at or above the high end of guidance ranges
Cheniere Energy delivered a clear re-acceleration in FY2025 after the FY2024 trough. Revenue surged 27% to $20.0B, EBITDA grew 12.7% to $6.94B, and distributable cash flow jumped 42% to $5.30B -- beating the high end of guidance by $450M. The financial trajectory confirms management credibility: they called FY2024 as the trough on the Q3 2024 earnings call and delivered exactly that.
The DCF growth of 42% significantly outpacing EBITDA growth of 12.7% is a key positive signal, reflecting the compounding benefit of debt paydown reducing interest expense. Combined with the aggressive share buyback (9.2% reduction over two years), per-share economics are improving even faster than headline figures suggest.
The score reflects a modest deduction for: (1) FY2026 guidance implies roughly flat EBITDA and lower DCF vs. FY2025, partly due to the discrete tax benefit that flattered FY2025 results, (2) operating margin of 45.6% is expanding but remains well below the derivative-inflated FY2023 level, making the true normalized trend harder to benchmark, and (3) 95%+ contracted cash flows limit upside optionality in a rising LNG price environment.
Score: 8.0/10 -- Strong re-acceleration from FY2024 trough. DCF growth of 42% is exceptional. Consistent guide-raise-beat pattern. Deducted for flat FY2026 guidance and discrete tax benefit effects on comparability.