Financial Trends -- 8/10
Leading US LNG exporter. The clean read is Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) --
management's own preferred metrics -- because GAAP revenue is commodity-price-driven and GAAP
net/operating income swings wildly on unrealized derivative mark-to-market (Q1'26 booked a
-$3.5B GAAP net loss purely from marks). Adj. EBITDA (+25%) and DCF (+28%) are accelerating YoY,
margin expanding ~540bps YoY off the Q1'25 trough, share count falling ~6%/yr with no dilution,
net debt flat while EBITDA grows. Blemish: headline revenue is commodity-price-volatile (price,
not volume). No penalty modifiers.
Weight: 25%
EBITDA Margin
Expanding
39.7%, +540bps YoY | Positive
DCF
Growing
$2.00B, +28% YoY | ~9.4% yield
Share Count
Declining
~6%/yr, buyback-driven | No dilution
Quarterly Revenue Trajectory ($M)
Headline revenue decelerated to +7.8% YoY in Q1'26 -- but this is price, not volume.
Quarterly revenue YoY fell from +42.8% (Q2'25) to +7.8% (Q1'26) on natural-gas price normalization,
NOT volume loss: TBtu volumes are rising (614 to 652 YoY in Q1) as Corpus Christi Stage 3 ramps.
Annual revenue is commodity-volatile, so headline revenue YoY is a poor signal for this name --
Adj. EBITDA and DCF are the clean read.
Adjusted EBITDA & DCF ($B, quarterly)
| Metric | Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adj. EBITDA | $1.77B | $1.32B | $1.48B | $1.58B | $1.87B | $1.42B | $1.61B | $2.05B | $2.33B |
| Adj. EBITDA YoY | — | — | — | — | +5.6% | +7.6% | +8.8% | +29.7% | +24.6% |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 41.6% | 40.6% | 39.3% | 35.6% | 34.3% | 30.6% | 36.3% | 37.6% | 39.7% |
| Consolidated DCF | $1.44B | $0.92B | $1.06B | $1.29B | $1.56B | $1.13B | $1.86B | $1.75B | $2.00B |
| DCF YoY | — | — | — | — | +8.3% | +22.8% | +75.5% | +35.7% | +28.2% |
Adj. EBITDA and DCF both accelerating, margin expanding ~540bps YoY.
Adj. EBITDA YoY climbed from +5.6% (Q1'25) to +24.6% (Q1'26); DCF is positive every quarter and
+28.2% YoY. The adj. EBITDA margin expanded ~540bps YoY (34.3% Q1'25 to 39.7% Q1'26) -- the real
operating-leverage story as low-cost Corpus Christi Stage 3 trains add volume. DCF is Cheniere's
clean free-cash equivalent (~9.4% FCF yield).
Capital Structure & Share Count (quarterly)
Share count declining ~6%/yr, net debt flat while EBITDA grows.
Diluted shares fell from 235.0M (Q1'24) to 210.5M (Q1'26) via consistent buybacks
(2.65M shares repurchased in Q1'26) --
anti-dilutive. Net debt is flat ~$22B while EBITDA grows, so net leverage is improving
(net debt/EBITDA ~3.8x TTM). No 3-consecutive-quarter debt-outpacing-revenue pattern.
Annual Financial Summary (FY ends December)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue ($M) | $15,864M | $33,428M | $20,394M | $15,703M | $19,976M |
| Rev YoY | — | +110.7% | -39.0% | -23.0% | +27.2% |
| Adj. EBITDA ($B) | $4.87B | $11.56B | $8.77B | $6.16B | $6.94B |
| EBITDA margin | 30.7% | 34.6% | 43.0% | 39.2% | 34.7% |
| Consolidated DCF ($B) | n/a | $10.05B | $7.50B | $4.71B | $6.28B |
| Diluted shares (M) | 253.4 | 253.4 | 242.6 | 229.1 | 220.3 |
| Net debt ($M) | 29,449 | 24,055 | 23,397 | 22,554 | 22,507 |
Key trends
- Revenue is commodity-volatile, not a clean signal: $15.9B (2021) spiked to $33.4B (2022) on gas prices, fell to $15.7B (2024), rebounded +27% to $20.0B (2025). Headline revenue YoY is a poor read for this name -- volumes are the driver, and they are rising on the Stage 3 ramp
- DCF positive and growing: Consolidated DCF positive every quarter, +28% YoY in Q1'26; TTM FCF positive at ~9.4% yield
- Margin expanding off the trough: Adj. EBITDA margin up ~540bps YoY (34.3% Q1'25 to 39.7% Q1'26) as low-cost Stage 3 trains add volume
- Share count declining steadily: 253.4M (2021) to 210.5M (Q1'26), ~6%/yr, buyback-driven with no dilution; net debt flat-to-declining while EBITDA grows
Penalty Modifier Check
| Modifier | Detail | Penalty |
|---|---|---|
| Negative FCF | No -- DCF and FCF positive and growing (+28% YoY) | None |
| Share dilution | No -- share count declining ~6%/yr via buybacks | None |
| Revenue up, operating income down | GAAP operating income is NM (derivative MTM); adjusted EBITDA is rising with the volume base | None |
| Debt outpacing revenue 3+ qtrs | No -- net debt flat ~$22B while EBITDA grows; de-levering | None |
No penalty modifiers triggered.
The one genuine blemish -- headline revenue decelerating to +7.8% YoY and unusable GAAP income
(Q1'26 -$3.5B net loss from derivative marks) -- is price- and accounting-driven, not
operational. TBtu volumes shipped are rising on the Stage 3 ramp, and the cash-generation and
capital-return trajectory is best-in-class.
Score Rationale
Score of 8/10 reflects a strong financial-trend profile on the metrics that matter for an LNG exporter.
Supports 8/10:
- Adj. EBITDA margin expanding ~540bps YoY (34.3% to 39.7%), the real operating-leverage story as low-cost Stage 3 trains add volume
- Adj. EBITDA (+24.6%) and DCF (+28.2%) YoY both accelerating in Q1'26
- Diluted share count falling ~6%/yr (253.4M to 210.5M) via consistent buybacks, no dilution
- Net debt flat ~$22B while EBITDA grows -- improving leverage (net debt/EBITDA ~3.8x TTM)
- Positive, growing free cash flow (~9.4% FCF yield); DCF positive every quarter
Why not a 10:
- Headline revenue YoY is not accelerating (decelerated to +7.8% in Q1'26 on gas-price normalization)
- GAAP net/operating income is unusable for trend (Q1'26 -$3.5B net loss purely from derivative mark-to-market)
Composite quality gate — positive and growing FCF: YES. DCF positive every quarter and +28% YoY; TTM FCF positive, ~9.4% yield.
Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id: 949). Fiscal year ends December 31. All financials in USD.