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ICE
Intercontinental Exchange
Earnings
ICE | Earnings Review
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | 2026 Q1 reported April 30, 2026 BMO | Analysis date: May 7, 2026 | Daloopa company_id 434
Revenue Beat
+3.4%
$2,977M vs ~$2,880M Street; +20.4% YoY — strongest acceleration in 8Q (Exchanges +30%, FI&DS +10%, MT +6%)
Adj EPS Beat
+5.4%
$2.35 vs $2.23 cons; +37% YoY — largest beat in 8Q; Adj Op margin 65% (+400 bps)
Q1 Records
FCF $1.15B / Backlog stack
Q1 FCF +48% YoY; record month March (>70% above prior peak); Total F&O OI +23% YoY (record); CDS clearing $2.7T notional cleared March 20 record
FY26 Guide
Tracking ABOVE
Recurring "high end of MSD" range; FIDS recurring 5%→6%→7%→8%→9% accel over 5Q; mortgage cycle inflection (best pro-forma since Q4'22); $275M synergy target by 2028 (raised from $200M)
Acceleration confirmed across all three segments — but Q1'26 is volatility-juiced; the 2027Q1 comp cliff is the tail risk. Revenue $2,977M (+20.4% YoY) beat ~$2,880M Street by +3.4%; Adj EPS $2.35 (+37% YoY) beat $2.23 by +5.4% — largest beat in 8 quarters; Adj Op margin 65% (+400 bps); FCF $1.15B (+48% YoY) — Q1 record. Exchanges Segment $1,781M (+30.3% YoY) the dominant upside driver: Energy F&O $814M (+46% on +32% ADV), Financials (rates) $256M (+64% on +65% ADV — interest rate volume surge), Cash equities $812M (-7%, lone soft spot), Ags & metals $81M (+27%). FI&DS $657M (+10.2%) — strongest in 8Q; recurring stair-stepped 5%→6%→7%→8%→9% over 5 quarters; CDS clearing +19% (record $2.7T notional); ETF AUM on ICE indices $829B (+21%). Mortgage Technology $539M (+5.7%) — pro-forma best quarter since Q4'22; Closing solutions +21%; Servicing software still soft +0.5%. Recurring revenue +6.8%; Transaction +34% — Q1 was clearly volume-driven. Energy reframed from cyclical strength to structural multi-year repricing (Iran/Venezuela/India-Russia trade rerouting; Strait of Hormuz; Qatar drone strikes 17% of LNG; Brent ADV +60%, TTF +61%, JKM records). Mortgage cycle inflection: Q1 +6% best pro-forma since Q4'22; 2020 vintage renewals fully cycled; 2021 largely done in 2026; Encompass closing +30% per-loan; Huntington/UWM/JPM ramps; MBA $2.2T / Fannie $2.37T 2026 origination forecasts. FY26 framework UPGRADED: Recurring tracking high end of MSD; FIDS recurring high end (D&NT high-SD); MT total tilting mid-to-high end; OpEx $4.075-4.140B / Capex $740-790M unchanged; synergy target raised to $275M by 2028 (from $200M). Optionality stack: NYSE tokenized securities platform + Securitize MOU; OKX regulated crypto futures; ICE MCP server for AI; Private Credit Intelligence with Apollo (new TAM). Three contradictions across 4 transcripts: (1) MT $80M synergy mid-2025 vs YE2025 $100M reframe; (2) CP balance "chip away" Q2'25 vs +$1B Polymarket CP issuance Q3'25 — clear capital-direction reversal; (3) Mahwah data center pace accelerated from "early 2030s" to urgent (Hall 5 sold, Halls 6/7 queued, $250M real-estate CapEx 2026). Capital allocation: $550M buyback in Q1 ($200M opportunistic Feb dislocation); dividend ATH; ~$850M total returned. Sprecher: ICE stock was "biggest M&A in the quarter." Watch: (1) energy OI persistence post-Iran (record +6% through April supports durability); (2) mortgage recurring re-acceleration in Q3/Q4 (Q2 guided flat); (3) NYSE tokenization regulatory milestones; (4) Mahwah Hall 5 sold → DNT growth comps tougher in 2H26 (Hall 6 doesn't ramp until 2027); (5) Polymarket interest-expense drag.
Key Metrics Trends
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchanges Segment ($M) | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.8B |
| Exchanges Segment ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +11.8% | +13.6% | +0.9% | +10.4% | +30.3% |
| Fixed Income & Data Services ($M) | $568M | $565M | $586M | $579M | $596M | $597M | $618M | $608M | $657M |
| Fixed Income & Data Services ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +4.9% | +5.7% | +5.5% | +5.0% | +10.2% |
| Mortgage Technology ($M) | $499M | $506M | $509M | $508M | $510M | $531M | $528M | $532M | $539M |
| Mortgage Technology ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +2.2% | +4.9% | +3.7% | +4.7% | +5.7% |
| Total Revenue ($M) | $2.3B | $2.3B | $2.3B | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.5B | $2.4B | $2.5B | $3.0B |
| Total Revenue ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +8.0% | +9.8% | +2.6% | +7.8% | +20.4% |
| Adj Op Margin % | 59.0% | 59.0% | 59.0% | 58.0% | 61.0% | 61.0% | 59.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% |
| Adj Op Margin % YoY chg (bps) | - | - | - | - | +200 | +200 | +0 | +200 | +400 |
_Trajectory: re-accelerating, but Q1'26 is volatility-juiced. Black Knight inflection visible: MT YoY went from +103.2% (24Q2) → +1.2% (24Q4) as comp lapped; recurring YoY collapsed from +26.3% → +1.3% over same window. 2026Q1 is a major outlier: Total revenue +20.4% YoY ($2,977M), Exchanges +30.3% on energy/options volatility, Adj margin spiking to 65%, Adj EPS +37% — highest readings in window by wide margin. 2025Q3 was the trough: Exchanges +0.9%, total rev +2.6% — energy volume softness after strong 2024 comps. FI&DS quietly accelerating to +10.2% in 2026Q1, strongest print in 8 quarters; recurring growth stair-stepped 5%→6%→7%→8%→9% over 5 quarters. MT still cycle-locked in +2-6% YoY band post-Black Knight integration; pro-forma best quarter since Q4'22 in Q1'26 but no clean rebound signal yet. Verdict: Re-accelerating but 2026Q1 is volatility-juiced; underlying durable growth is mid-single-digit recurring with FI&DS as cleanest accelerator. Risk = 2027Q1 comp cliff against the spiked Exchanges base._
Beat/Miss
Guidance
Catalysts
Street Q&A
Contradictions
Read-Throughs
This Quarter vs Consensus
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Variance | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$2,880M | $2,977M | +$97M / +3.4% | Beat — +20% YoY |
| Adj EPS | $2.23 | $2.35 | +$0.12 / +5.4% | Beat — largest in 8Q |
| GAAP EPS | — | $2.48 | +80% YoY | Beat |
| Exchanges Segment | — | $1,781M | +30.3% YoY | Dominant upside driver |
| FI&DS Segment | — | $657M | +10.2% YoY | Record; recurring +9% accel |
| Mortgage Tech Segment | — | $539M | +5.7% YoY | Best pro-forma since Q4'22 |
| Adj Op Margin | — | 65% | +400 bps YoY | Margin breakout |
| Energy F&O ADV | — | +32% YoY | Brent +60%, TTF +61% | March highest-volume month ever |
| Financials F&O ADV | — | +65% YoY | SONIA +120% | Rates volatility surge |
| FCF | — | $1.15B | +48% YoY | Q1 record |
| L8Q Adj EPS beat rate | — | 87.5% (7/8) | — | Consistent Beater |
| L4Q Adj EPS beat rate | — | 100% (4/4) | — | Magnitude stepping up |
| L8Q Revenue beat rate | — | 37.5% / 62.5% beat-or-meet | — | Mixed historical |
| L4Q Revenue beat rate | — | 50% | — | Improving |
Pattern: Historically tight ~2% EPS beats; now stepping up as cyclical tailwinds layer onto recurring base. Q3'25 (+5.6%) and Q1'26 (+5.4%) signal step-up. Mgmt variance commentary: Energy — Iran was catalyst but momentum existed pre-event (Jan/Feb double-digit ADV); OI +6% post-quarter through April; framed as "multiyear structural repricing," not single-event. Mortgage — Encompass renewal pressure now reversing — higher per-closed-loan fees from 2020-21 repricing flipping favorable as transaction volumes return (legacy Encompass closing rev +30% YoY). FI&DS — guidance "may be conservative" given trajectory; CDS Clearing record (+18%); Indices ETF AUM $829B (+21%); Data & Network Tech +11% on AI/inference demand.
Guidance Deep Dive
| Metric | Prior (Q4'25) | New / Tracking (Q1'26) | Street Pre-Print | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY26 Total Revenue | $10.95B mgmt-implied | Tracking in line to slightly ahead | ~$10.9B | Beat-and-tighten |
| FY26 Recurring Revenue | MSD growth | High end of MSD range | — | Mgmt explicit on Q1 call |
| Exchange recurring | MSD | Tracking high end | — | +10% Q1'26 |
| FIDS recurring | MSD trending high end | D&NT high-SD; recurring +9% | — | Stair-stepping 5%→9% over 5Q |
| Mortgage Tech total | Low- to mid-SD | Tilting mid-to-high end | — | Q2 recurring guided flat — show-me |
| FY26 OpEx | $4.075-4.140B (+4-5%) | Unchanged | — | Maintained |
| FY26 CapEx | $740-790M | Unchanged | — | Maintained ($250M real-estate driven by AI demand) |
| BK Synergy target | $200M (original) | $275M by 2028 | — | +$75M / +37.5% raised |
| FY26 EPS growth | 10%+ p.a. | Q1'26 +37% — comfortably above pace | Implied raise | Pace ahead |
| Q1 Capital Return | — | $550M buyback ($200M opportunistic Feb dislocation); ~$850M total return | — | Sprecher: ICE stock "biggest M&A in the quarter" |
| Polymarket investment | — | $1B funded with CP issuance | — | CP balance reversal |
| NYSE tokenized securities + Securitize MOU | — | Optionality stack | — | Multi-year |
| OKX regulated crypto futures | — | Optionality | — | — |
| ICE MCP server for AI | — | Live | — | Defensive→offensive AI |
| Private Credit Intelligence (Apollo anchor) | — | Live | — | New TAM |
Tone: most assertive in 4 quarters. Q4'25 set FY26 guide framework; Q1'26 effectively raised the bar across all segments without formal increase — Gardiner stated guidance now sits "toward the higher end of mid-single-digit range." Most material narrative shift: Energy reframed from cyclical strength (Q2/Q3'25) to structural multi-year repricing (Q1'26) — driven by Iran, Venezuela, India/Russia trade rerouting. Mortgage cycle hit inflection: Q1 +6% (best since Q4'22 pro forma); 2020 vintage renewals fully cycled, 2021 largely done in 2026. Top risks: energy de-escalation tail (mitigated by record OI); PennyMac 50bps recurring headwind in 2028; refi sensitivity to rates; Basel/MSR rules; Polymarket CP-funded interest expense drag. Three contradictions identified: (1) MT synergy framing — Q2'25 "around $80M" mid-year vs Q4'25 retroactive "YE2024 baseline $55M / YE2025 $100M" — never explicitly squared; (2) CP balance / capital deployment posture — Q2'25 "chip away at CP balance" vs Q3'25 funded $1B Polymarket with CP issuance + committed another $1B CP capacity — clear reversal; (3) Data center pace — Q2'25 "through early 2030s" vs Q4'25/Q1'26 urgent (Hall 5 sold, $250M 2026 CapEx).
Upcoming Catalysts
| # | Catalyst | Timing | What to Watch | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy futures structural repricing | Multi-year | Brent ADV +60%, TTF +61%, JKM records; Total F&O OI +23% YoY (record); HOU 9M bbl March vs Cushing 1.6M; OI +6% post-Q through April | Most powerful tailwind |
| 2 | Rate-cycle catalyst | FY26-FY27 | SONIA ADV +120% YoY; Total rate OI +63% above year-ago; BoE/ECB outlook flips driving volume | Underappreciated tailwind |
| 3 | Mortgage at inflection | FY26-FY27 | Q1 transaction +22%; Encompass closing per-loan +~30%; MBA $2.2T / Fannie $2.37T 2026 origination forecasts; Fannie sees rates <6% by YE26 | Q2 recurring guided flat — show-me on accel |
| 4 | FIDS quietly accelerating | FY26 | Recurring stair-stepped 5%→6%→7%→8%→9% over 5Q; ETF AUM on ICE indices $829B (+21%); ~$2T total benchmarked | Multi-year compounder |
| 5 | Black Knight $275M synergy target | By 2028 | Raised from $200M; YE2024 baseline $55M / YE2025 $100M (per Q4'25 reframe) | +37.5% raised |
| 6 | Huntington / UWM / JPM Encompass ramps | Through FY26 | April Huntington win; UWM live; JPM ramping | Mortgage Tech tailwind |
| 7 | Treasury Clearing live (SEC approved Feb 2026) | FY26 | Operationally live; ramp economics deferred to later quarters | New revenue stream |
| 8 | NYSE tokenized securities + Securitize MOU | FY26-FY27 | Regulatory milestones; competitive position vs Coinbase / OKX | Optionality |
| 9 | OKX regulated crypto futures partnership | FY26 | Crypto strategy entirely shifted to OKX (Bakkt absent from call) | Optionality |
| 10 | ICE MCP server for AI | FY26 | Pivoting from defensive (data moat) to offensive (inference embedded in workflows) | Margin moat |
| 11 | Private Credit Intelligence (Apollo anchor) | FY26 | New TAM; Apollo as anchor | Adjacent expansion |
| 12 | Capital allocation — $550M Q1 buyback / dividend ATH | Multi-year | $200M opportunistic Feb dislocation; $850M total return Q1; Sprecher "ICE stock biggest M&A in quarter" | Aggressive return |
| 13 | Polymarket $1B investment (CP-funded) | FY26+ | New TAM; CP-funded interest expense drag; CP balance reversal | Watch interest expense |
| 14 | Mahwah Hall 5 fully sold | FY26-FY27 | DNT growth comps tougher in 2H'26; Hall 6 doesn't ramp until 2027 | Comps tougher |
| 15 | $250M real-estate CapEx 2026 | FY26 | AI-demand driven data-center expansion; Halls 6 & 7 queued | Multi-year build-out |
| 16 | PennyMac 50bps recurring headwind | 2028 | Future re-pricing tail risk | Distant |
| 17 | Basel/MSR rules | FY26-FY27 | Banks already buying back MSR portfolios as rules expected to ease | Mortgage Tech tailwind |
| 18 | Cash equities recovery | FY26 | Cash equities -7% YoY in Q1'26 (only soft spot in Exchanges) | Watch IPO calendar |
| 19 | Energy OI persistence post-Iran | FY26 | Mgmt rebuttal of "bad-volatility/exhaustion" sell-side concerns; OI +6% through April | Critical durability metric |
| 20 | ICE-NYSE 230-year IPO + listings franchise | Ongoing | Listings revenue; IPO calendar 2026 (Renaissance, Forge) | Cyclical |
Street Q&A
| # | Analyst (Firm) | Topic | Mgmt Response | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Allen (KBW) | Energy volume sustainability post-Iran | Jackson: Iran was catalyst but momentum existed pre-event (Jan/Feb double-digit ADV); OI +6% post-Q; structural multiyear repricing — not single event. | Well Answered — anchored to structural narrative |
| 2 | Worthington (JPM) | Energy market structure | Jackson: HOU 9M bbl March vs Cushing 1.6M; Iran/Venezuela/India-Russia trade rerouting; Qatar drone strikes 17% of LNG. | Well Answered — quantified |
| 3 | Bedell (DB) | FI&DS recurring acceleration | Edmonds-Waters / Gardiner: 5%→9% stair-step; CDS clearing record $2.7T; ETF AUM $829B (+21%); guidance "may be conservative." | Well Answered |
| 4 | Blostein (GS) | Mortgage Tech inflection / Encompass renewal pricing | Jackson: Encompass renewal pressure reversing; per-closed-loan fees from 2020-21 repricing flipping favorable; Closing +30% YoY. | Well Answered |
| 5 | Cyprys (MS) | Tokenization / settlement collapse impact on clearing economics | Sprecher: reframed question into volume-upside narrative; sidestepped structural risk to clearing economics if settlement collapses to near-instant. | Soft deflection |
| 6 | Fannon (Jefferies) | Capital allocation / M&A | Sprecher: "ICE stock was biggest M&A in the quarter"; $200M opportunistic Feb dislocation; disciplined-opportunistic framing. | Well Answered |
| 7 | (Not asked) | Q2 energy volume sustainability | — | Conspicuous gap |
| 8 | (Not asked) | Encompass renewal pricing detail | — | Gap |
| 9 | (Not asked) | Capex trajectory | — | Gap |
| 10 | (Not asked) | Treasury Clearing ramp economics | — | Gap |
Contradictions
| # | Topic | Severity | Statement A | Statement B | Why it's a tension |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MT synergy framing | Medium — never explicitly squared | Q2'25: "around $80 million" synergies mid-year | Q4'25: retroactively framed YE2024 baseline as $55M and YE2025 as $100M | Reconcilable as a trajectory, but framing was never explicitly squared. Suggests baseline was reset. |
| 2 | CP balance / capital deployment posture | High — clear reversal | Q2'25 (Aug, Gardiner): "chip away at that CP balance" | Q3'25 (two months later): funded $1B Polymarket investment with CP issuance + committed another $1B of CP capacity | Clear reversal in stated capital direction within one quarter. Investors should note the directional flip. |
| 3 | Data center build pace | Medium — tonal acceleration | Q2'25: "through early 2030s" pacing alongside client demand | Q4'25/Q1'26: urgent (Hall 5 sold, Halls 6/7 queued, $250M real-estate CapEx 2026 driven by AI demand) | Acceleration rather than contradiction — but materially changes pace narrative. |
| 4 | Recurring revenue trajectory | None | Steady walk-up Exchange & FIDS | — | Consistent. |
| 5 | Energy volatility durability | None | Consistent secular framing across all 4 calls | — | Consistent. |
| 6 | FI&DS pricing power / growth algo | None | Consistent "pick spots" approach, accelerating growth | — | Consistent. |
| 7 | Adj op margin trajectory | None | Q1'26 expense raise tied to performance-linked variable comp, "more than offset by revenues" | — | Consistent. |
| 8 | M&A appetite | None | Consistent "buy vs build" disciplined-opportunistic framing | — | Consistent. |
Indirect Read-Throughs
| Name | Relationship | What ICE signaled | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| CME Group | Direct futures peer | Cushing comparison (HOU 9M bbl March vs Cushing 1.6M); ICE energy share-take from CME WTI | NEGATIVE for CME — share loss in Cushing-centric WTI |
| Coinbase (COIN) | Crypto exchange peer | ICE partnered with OKX for regulated crypto futures (not COIN); NYSE tokenized securities platform | NEGATIVE — competitive crypto build |
| MSCI / S&P Global (SPGI) | Index peers | ETF AUM on ICE indices $829B (+21%); ~$2T total benchmarked | NEGATIVE — index share take |
| MarketAxess (MKTX) / Tradeweb (TW) | Fixed income peers | FI execution +0% Q1'26 — flat-to-encroachment dynamic; CDS clearing $2.7T record | MIXED — encroachment risk on FI execution |
| BAC (Merrill Indices) | Index peer | ICE-Bofa indices integrated; ETF AUM growth | Partner |
| Apollo (APO) | Private credit anchor partner | Anchor for ICE Private Credit Intelligence | POSITIVE |
| Polymarket | Investment / partner ($1B) | $1B investment (CP-funded); regulated event markets exposure | Optionality |
| OKX | Crypto futures partner | Regulated crypto futures partnership | Optionality |
| Securitize | Tokenization MOU partner | NYSE tokenized securities platform partner | Optionality |
| UWM / Huntington / M&T / JPM | Mortgage Tech customers | Encompass wins April; UWM live; JPM ramp; Huntington named | POSITIVE — MT customer wins |
| Howard Hanna | Real estate brokerage customer | Named on call | POSITIVE |
| AstraZeneca / Reddit / Dow Jones | NYSE listings customers | Named directly | POSITIVE |
| Oil majors (XOM, CVX) / Hedge funds | Energy futures customers | Volume surge driven by trading activity in Iran/Venezuela/India-Russia routing | Implicit — volume tailwind |
| QatarEnergy | LNG supplier (event) | Drone strikes affecting 17% of LNG exports — driving JKM volatility | NEGATIVE for QE; POSITIVE for LNG market volatility |
| Cheniere (LNG) | LNG export peer | TTF +61%, JKM records; structural LNG repricing | POSITIVE — adjacent |
| BoE / ECB / Fed | Central banks | Rate-cycle volatility (SONIA +120%, Euribor record) driving Financials F&O ADV +65% | Macro volatility tailwind |
| BlackRock (BLK) / Vanguard / Fidelity | Asset managers | ETF AUM on ICE indices $829B (+21%); driving Indices revenue | POSITIVE |
| JPM / GS / MS / WFC | Banks (mortgage origination) | MBA $2.2T 2026 origination forecast; Encompass ramps | POSITIVE |
| Bakkt (BKKT) | Crypto subsidiary | Notably ABSENT from call — crypto strategy entirely shifted to OKX | Strategic deprioritization |
Data sourced from Daloopa. Document search is currently in beta; transcript and filing snippets may vary.