Financial Trends -- 7/10
High-quality, cash-generative, margin-expanding compounder. Adjusted operating margin expanded
~600bps from a 58% trough to a record 65% in Q1'26. Diluted share count flat-to-declining.
Adjusted FCF positive and growing at an accelerating rate (FY21 $2.8B to FY25 $4.2B; Q1'26
+38% YoY) while total debt is deliberately paid down. No penalty modifiers. The single qualifier:
the +20.4% Q1'26 net-revenue print is cyclically flattered by record Exchanges/energy volumes on
an easy comp, masking a high-single-digit recurring base and a YoY rate that decelerated through
2025 -- read as a strong cyclical quarter, not durable acceleration.
Weight: 25%
Quarterly Net Revenue, Margins & FCF (8 comparable quarters)
| Metric | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 | 2025Q2 | 2025Q3 | 2025Q4 | 2026Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue ($M) | $2,317 | $2,349 | $2,323 | $2,473 | $2,543 | $2,411 | $2,504 | $2,977 |
| Net rev YoY | +22.7% | +17.3% | +5.5% | +8.0% | +9.8% | +2.6% | +7.8% | +20.4% |
| GAAP op margin | 46% | 47% | 46% | 49% | 51% | 49% | 49% | 56% |
| Adj op margin | 59% | 59% | 58% | 61% | 61% | 59% | 60% | 65% |
| Adj FCF ($M) | $894 | $860 | $989 | $833 | $1,190 | $1,155 | $1,009 | $1,150 |
| Adj FCF YoY | -8.7% | +7.5% | +32.8% | -5.0% | +33.1% | +34.3% | +2.0% | +38.1% |
| Diluted shares (M) | 575 | 577 | 577 | 577 | 575 | 574 | 572 | 570 |
| Total debt ($M) | $21,807 | $21,200 | $20,368 | $20,281 | $19,208 | $19,033 | $19,644 | $20,370 |
The Q1'26 +20.4% print is a strong cyclical quarter, not durable acceleration.
Sequencing the YoY rates: 2024 was a high-growth year inflated by the Black Knight (mortgage)
acquisition; 2025 decelerated to a +2.6%-to-+9.8% organic band; 2026Q1 re-accelerated sharply to
+20.4% on record transaction/energy volumes in the cyclical Exchanges segment against an easy comp.
The underlying through-cycle growth rate is high-single-digit, with a strong cyclical quarter on top.
Quarterly Segment Net Revenue ($M, less transaction-based expenses)
Mix read. The Q1'26 acceleration is overwhelmingly driven
by Exchanges (transaction-heavy energy/financials trading at record volumes, +30% net YoY); the
recurring-heavy FIDS (+10%) and Mortgage Technology (+6%) segments grow steadily but modestly. The
high-quality recurring engine compounds in the high-single digits; the cyclical transaction engine
is what swings the consolidated YoY rate.
Annual Financial Summary (FY ends December)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue ($M) | $7,146 | $7,292 | $7,988 | $9,279 | $9,931 |
| Net rev YoY | — | +2.0% | +9.5% | +16.2% | +7.0% |
| Adj op income ($M) | $4,169 | $4,339 | $4,728 | $5,469 | $5,992 |
| Adj op margin | 58% | 59% | 59% | 59% | 60% |
| Adj free cash flow ($M) | $2,821 | $2,906 | $3,197 | $3,620 | $4,187 |
| Adj FCF YoY | — | +3.0% | +10.0% | +13.2% | +15.7% |
| Op cash flow ($M) | $3,123 | $3,554 | $3,542 | $4,609 | $4,662 |
| Diluted shares (M) | 565 | 561 | 565 | 576 | 575 |
| Total debt ($M) | $13,918 | $18,122 | $22,613 | $20,368 | $19,644 |
Key trends
- Net revenue compounding: $7.1B (FY21) to $9.9B (FY25), boosted by the Black Knight mortgage acquisition; underlying through-cycle rate is high-single-digit
- Adjusted FCF growing at an accelerating rate: $2.8B (FY21) to $4.2B (FY25), with YoY growth itself accelerating (+3% to +10% to +13% to +16%); Q1'26 +38% YoY
- Margins expanding: Adj operating margin 58% (FY21) to 60% (FY25), and to a record 65% in Q1'26 -- ~600bps trough-to-peak from real operating leverage plus Black Knight synergies
- Deliberate deleveraging: Total debt rose to $22.6B (FY23) to fund Black Knight, then paid down to $19.6B (FY25) -- debt shrinking while revenue grows
- Share count flat-to-declining: 576M (FY24) to 575M (FY25) to 570M (Q1'26) -- no dilution
Segment Net Revenue, Annual ($M, gross segment revenue)
Exchanges is the largest and fastest-growing segment.
Mortgage Technology roughly doubled FY23 to FY24 ($1.3B to $2.0B) as the Black Knight acquisition
was consolidated. FIDS grows steadily on recurring data/index demand. (FY2022 segment detail not
broken out in the source series.)
Penalty Modifier Check
| Modifier | Triggered? |
|---|---|
| Negative FCF | No |
| Share dilution >10% YoY | No |
| Revenue up / op income down | No |
| Debt growing faster than revenue 3+ quarters | No |
Score Rationale
Score of 7/10 reflects a high-quality, cash-generative, margin-expanding compounder with no penalty flags but cyclically-flattered (rather than structurally durable) revenue acceleration.
Supports the score:
- Adjusted operating margin expanded ~600bps from a 58% trough to a record 65% in Q1'26 -- real operating leverage plus Black Knight integration synergies
- Adjusted FCF positive and clearly growing, with YoY growth itself accelerating ($2.8B FY21 to $4.2B FY25; Q1'26 +38% YoY)
- Diluted share count flat-to-declining (576M to 570M) -- no dilution penalty
- Debt deliberately paid down ($22.6B FY23 to $19.6B FY25) while revenue grows -- no debt penalty
The single qualifier:
- The +20.4% Q1'26 net-revenue print is cyclically flattered by record Exchanges/energy transaction volumes on an easy comp (Exchanges net +30% YoY vs FIDS +10%, Mortgage +6%)
- The underlying through-cycle growth rate is high-single-digit, and the YoY rate decelerated through 2025 (+2.6% to +9.8% organic band) -- read as a strong cyclical quarter, not durable acceleration
Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id: 434). Revenue figures on ICE's net-revenue basis (total revenues less transaction-based expenses). Fiscal year ends December 31. All financials in USD.