ICE -- Q1 2026 Earnings Preview
ICE has one of the cleanest setups of the week because the key Q1 volume statistics are already public. ICE reported record first-quarter ADV, including total ADV up 45% YoY, Energy ADV up 32%, Oil ADV up 41%, Financials ADV up 65%, and Interest Rates ADV up 70%. The central question is conversion: how much of that volume spike drops into net transaction revenue after rebates, mix, and incremental expenses?
The Q4 base was already strong: Exchanges revenue less transaction-based expenses was $1.36B, Exchange operating income was $999M, Fixed Income and Data Services revenue was $608M, and FIDS operating income was $230M. Q1 should test whether the all-weather model can show both cyclical transaction upside and durable recurring growth.
| Metric | Latest Guide / Setup | Watch Item | |---|---:|---| | Q1 GAAP operating expense | $1.245B-$1.255B / high from prior guide | ICE later raised Q1 expense guide with record volumes; revenue offset matters | | Q1 adjusted operating expense | $1.010B-$1.020B / high from prior guide | Incremental expense vs. incremental volume capture | | Exchange recurring growth | Up to 5% annual guide | Stability of non-transaction revenue | | FIDS recurring growth | Up to 6% annual guide | Data subscription durability | | Q1 volume | Record ADV per Apr. 6 ICE statistics release | Rate per contract and rebate mix |
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Exchange net revenue | $1.37B | $1.42B | $1.27B | $1.36B | | Exchange operating income | $1.01B | $1.06B | $908M | $999M | | Energy futures/options revenue | $557M | $595M | $482M | $548M | | Financial futures/options revenue | $156M | $158M | $139M | $155M | | Total futures/options revenue | $777M | $818M | $672M | $756M |
The setup is volume-led and unusually visible. March set record ADV across commodities, energy, oil, and interest rates, and Q1 was a record quarter for total ADV. That should support transaction revenue, but the market will separate headline volume from economic capture. Energy and rates volumes are valuable, but mix, rebates, and clearing economics determine the P&L impact.
Recurring data and fixed income revenues are the quality anchor. If FIDS and exchange recurring revenue continue mid-single-digit growth while transaction revenues spike, the quarter reinforces ICE's all-weather compounder profile.
| Catalyst | Timing | What Matters | |---|---|---| | Q1 transaction capture | Apr 30 | Revenue per contract after record volume | | Expense update | Apr 30 | Whether raised expenses are more than offset by volume revenue | | Energy/rates volatility | Q2 2026 | Durability of March activity | | Mortgage technology | 2026 | Recovery signs as rates/housing stabilize | | Fixed income data | 2026 | ASV and recurring revenue growth |
| Date | Item | Read-through | |---|---|---| | Apr 6, 2026 | ICE reported March and Q1 statistics with record total ADV | Strongest setup item; visible revenue tailwind | | Feb 5, 2026 | ICE scheduled Q1 call for Apr 30 and raised quarterly dividend 8% | Capital return confidence | | Feb 2026 | FY2025 results showed record revenues and operating income | Good baseline before Q1 volume acceleration | | 2026 | Mortgage market still recovering slowly | Optional upside, not the primary Q1 driver |
| Quarter | Exchange Net Revenue | Exchange Op Income | Signal | |---|---:|---:|---| | Q4 2025 | $1.36B | $999M | Strong exit rate | | Q3 2025 | $1.27B | $908M | Volume-normalized trough | | Q2 2025 | $1.42B | $1.06B | High transaction capture | | Q1 2025 | $1.37B | $1.01B | Prior-year comp to beat |