Built by Grok 4.6 HighReports Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Prepared Monday, October 26, 2026. This is the unreported Q3 2026 print (quarter ended September 30). One calendar day remains. EQT issues results after the close. The October 28 call at 10:00 a.m. ET was cancelled this morning with the Range Resources announcement. Both companies still print standalone Q3 results tomorrow. The first session that can price the release is Wednesday, October 28. Last reported quarter is Q2 2026, released after the close on July 21, 2026. EQT is a calendar-year company. The homepage calendar stores October 27 as 2026Q4. That label is one quarter ahead of the quarter being reported. This page is 2026Q3. A September 24 preview used a projected October 20 date written before the October 7 scheduling release. That date is not this print, and that file was not overwritten. No Appalachian gas peer reports before EQT. Expand Energy and Range print the same night.
EQT | Earnings Preview
| Q3 sales volume | 570–620 Bcfe · mid 595 calc. · −6.2% YoY | Q3 differential | ($0.75)–($0.65)/Mcf · mid ($0.70) · unchanged |
| FMP Q3 revenue / EBITDA | $1.771B, −9.6% · $1.069B, −10.9% · not guided | FY2026 volume | 2,375–2,450 Bcfe · mid 2,412.5 · +1.3% vs FY2025 |
EQT reports Q3 tomorrow. The live operating outlook is still the July 21 release and the July 22 call. Nothing since has restated sales volume, differential, unit cost, capital, or turn-in-line. EQT does not guide revenue, EPS, or EBITDA. Those lines are a price residual. FMP, pulled October 26, is the only consensus on the page. Visible Alpha, Bloomberg BEST, SharePoint, OneNote, Outlook, Teams, and internal Excel models were not available. Tariffs are not in the July guide and not in any filing since. They are not a Q3 watch item.
Growth is being asked to reverse. Sales-volume year-over-year went from +0.6% in Q4 2025 to +8.2% in Q1 2026 to +11.7% in Q2 2026. Q2 sales volume was 634.5 Bcfe versus 568.2 Bcfe. The Q3 midpoint of 595 Bcfe is −6.2% versus Q3 2025 sales volume of 634.4 Bcfe. That is about 1,790 bps slower than the Q2 growth rate, and about 1,530 bps slower than Q3 2025’s own +9.1%. The high end of 620 Bcfe is still −2.3% versus last year’s quarter. Full-year volume went from 2,228.2 Bcfe in FY2024 to 2,382.4 Bcfe in FY2025, +6.9%. The FY2026 midpoint of 2,412.5 Bcfe, on a 2,375–2,450 Bcfe range, is only +1.3%. The growth rate is decelerating by roughly 560 bps. First-half 2026 was 617.7 + 634.5 = 1,252.2 Bcfe, +9.9% versus 1,139.0 Bcfe in the first half of 2025. Holding the full-year midpoint leaves 1,160 Bcfe for the second half, about −6.7% versus the second half of 2025. The July raise banked the first half. It did not underwrite another quarter like Q2.
Price, not production, took the last print, and the street has marked this one down further. Q2 realized price was $2.65/Mcfe versus $2.81/Mcfe, −5.7%. Adjusted EBITDA still grew, but only to $1,067.0 million from $1,033.3 million, +3.3%, after +54.9% in Q1. Adjusted EPS fell to $0.39 from $0.45, −13.3%, and missed FMP by 5.4%. Sales of gas, oil, and NGLs were $1,610.0 million versus $1,700.5 million, −5.3%. GAAP operating revenue of $1,809.9 million versus $2,557.7 million is −29.2% and is not the economic trend. The year-ago quarter carried a much larger derivative gain. Since the September 24 FMP snapshot for this same unreported quarter (revenue $1.842 billion, EPS $0.441), the street has cut revenue to $1.771 billion and EPS to $0.368. The bar got easier. The trajectory did not get better.
What consensus is underwriting. Use the FMP analyst-estimates average, not the earnings-calendar point. Q3 revenue $1,771.0 million (6 analysts) is −9.6% versus Q3 2025 operating revenue of $1,958.6 million. EPS $0.368 (15 analysts; low $0.252, high $0.494) is −29.2% versus $0.52. EBITDA $1,069.3 million is −10.9% versus adjusted EBITDA of $1,199.5 million. The earnings-calendar row is $0.361 and $1,771 million. The step from volume (−6.2%) to EBITDA (−10.9%) to EPS (−29.2%) is the street’s price and mix assumption, not a company target. FY2026 consensus is revenue $9,124 million (+5.5% versus $8,644.2 million), EPS $3.943 (+29.3% versus $3.05), and EBITDA $6,107 million (+13.4% versus $5,385.7 million). FY2027 consensus is below FY2026 on all three: revenue −2.7%, EPS −7.3%, EBITDA −4.5%. There is no management FY2027 guide. That step-down is the opposite of the July line that late 2027 re-inflects.
What to watch on October 27
- Where volume lands inside 570–620 Bcfe. The low is 570 Bcfe and the high is 620 Bcfe. Seven straight actuals cleared the midpoint, and the last three cleared the high end. A repeat of the latest +6.6% versus midpoint would put Q3 near 634 Bcfe, flat versus last year and through the high end. A repeat of only the seven-quarter average, +4.8%, lands near 624 Bcfe, just through the high end. Rice has since said recent months included curtailments. A volume beat is a choice, not a mechanical outcome. Those repeats are a base rate, not a forecast.
- Differential versus ($0.75) to ($0.65). The band has not moved since the Q2 guide, and the full-year band of ($0.55)–($0.35) has not moved since February. Late September is inside this quarter: Tetco M2 was reported below $1.50, the curtailment trigger from the prior year. October basis is a Q4 question, not a Q3 actual. One weak month does not break the band. It is the setup in which EQT has sold less.
- Unit cost and capex, where the sandbag has been widest. Q3 cash operating cost is guided at $1.09–$1.23, midpoint $1.16, against a Q2 actual of $1.03. Six of the last seven quarters were at or below the low end. Q4 2025 was the one that landed inside the range. Cash capex has been below the low end seven quarters running. The Q3 maintenance-plus-growth sum is $710–$820 million, maintenance $510–$580 million plus strategic growth $200–$240 million. It does not include the $60–$70 million equity-method line.
- The preliminary hedge footnote, not a preannounce. The October 13 8-K expects a $100 million derivatives gain and $70 million of net cash settlements. Q3 2025’s derivative gain was $135.8 million. The footnote does not update volume, basis, or capital. Adjusted EBITDA already excludes this line.
- The Range deal is not a Q3 number. All-stock at 0.987 EQT shares per Range share, about 73/27, close targeted Q1 2027. Calls cancelled. No volume, price, or capex figure was updated. Synergies of $325 million are a company projection. They are not in the 570–620 Bcfe band.
The contrarian seam cuts both ways. Management keeps repeating a bullish outer-year case — in-basin power, a pipe, LNG, a pivot to buybacks — and the 2026 document does not contain it. The street’s FY2027 estimates sit below FY2026, so it has not capitalized those speeches. The team has earned the right to be believed on operations: they left risk in the forecast, beat it, refused to raise in April, beat it again, then raised the floor more than the ceiling and left the next quarterly band where it was. Q2 already split the two outcomes the market confuses: volume above the high end, adjusted EPS below the street. Tomorrow settles the guided volume dip. It does not settle 2030.
Classification: conservative on volume, cost, and capex versus a seven-quarter beat pattern. Less bearish than a street that has marked Q3 revenue down 9.6% and EPS down 29.2%. Not classifiable on revenue, EPS, or margin, because those are not guided. The aggressive line in the outlook is growth capital, which is guided up, not sandbagged down. The least conservative operating line is the differential, a copy of the Q2 band and only about 2 cents wider than last year’s actual of ($0.68)/Mcf.
The full-year volume raise lifted the floor by 100 Bcfe and the ceiling by 75 Bcfe, from 2,275–2,375 to 2,375–2,450. The midpoint step is +87.5 Bcfe, in line with the “roughly 90 Bcfe” on the call. The band narrowed from 100 Bcfe to 75 Bcfe. That is confidence on volumes already in hand, not an open-ended raise. The Q3 band was not moved. It is the same 570–620 width they used for Q2, which they then beat through the top. Q3 maintenance capital of $510 million–$580 million is below the prior quarter’s guide and matches the full-year maintenance cut of $25 million at the midpoint, from $2.07 billion–$2.21 billion to $2.04 billion–$2.19 billion. Strategic growth capital is unchanged at $0.58 billion–$0.64 billion. Equity-method contributions stepped from $0.07 billion–$0.08 billion to $0.15 billion–$0.17 billion. That is the $85 million pull-forward. It is not capex, and it is not 2026 cash flow from the pipe. Maintenance plus strategic growth, excluding equity contributions, is $2.62–$2.83 billion, midpoint $2.725 billion.
The FY floor is mostly already earned. First-half actual of 1,252.2 Bcfe means the 2,375 Bcfe low needs only 1,122.8 Bcfe in the second half. Q3 at the low end still leaves a Q4 that can sit well below Q4 2025 609.0 Bcfe and keep the year inside the range. A guide that cannot be missed on volume is not information. The information is the ceiling, and they only lifted that by 75 Bcfe. Pairing the Q3 midpoint with the FY midpoint leaves about 565 Bcfe for Q4, −7.2% versus that 609.0 Bcfe quarter. FMP’s Q4 revenue of $2,139 million is −10.4% versus Q4 2025 operating revenue of $2,388.1 million. The street’s Q4 decline lines up with a sub-600 Bcfe quarter. It does not line up with another high-end volume beat.
| Q3 2026 line | Q3 2025 actual | Q3 2026 guide | YoY at mid | Versus the street |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total sales volume | 634.4 Bcfe | 570–620 | −6.2% | Conservative vs history. FMP revenue −9.6% is a steeper dollar decline. |
| Differential ($/Mcf) | ($0.68) | ($0.75)–($0.65) | $0.02 wider | In line. Least conservative line. Not in FMP. |
| Cash operating cost | $1.00 | $1.09–$1.23 | +$0.16 / +16% | Conservative. Band sits above the last four actuals. |
| Maintenance + growth capex | $627 million | $710–$820 million, sum of $510–$580 and $200–$240 | +22% at mid | High vs the underspend habit. Growth capital is the aggressive piece. |
| Equity-method contributions | Not in cash capex | $60–$70 million | About +$40 million | Southgate pull-forward. Outside the 570–620 band and outside the $710–$820 sum. |
| Operating revenue | $1,958.6 million | Not guided | Street −9.6% | FMP avg $1,771.0 million. Not classifiable vs a company guide. |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.52 | Not guided | Street −29.2% | FMP avg $0.368. Calendar point $0.361. Use the average. |
| EBITDA | $1,199.5 million | Not guided | Street −10.9% | FMP $1,069.3 million. Not the same definition as adjusted EBITDA. |
Credibility of the volume guide is the seven-quarter record below. Beat versus midpoint, in order: +4.3%, +3.8%, +4.3%, +3.2%, +5.9%, +5.6%, +6.6%. Average +4.8%. The beat narrowed into Q3 2025 and has widened for three straight quarters. All seven are beats on a +/−1% in-line test versus the midpoint. That is a sandbag, not a coin flip. Curtailment is how they choose whether the sandbag gets delivered. A print inside 570–620 would be a break with the recent pattern of clearing the high end. It would not be a guide miss.
| Sales volume (Bcfe) | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 | Q3'26 guide |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guide low | 555 | 525 | 520 | 590 | 550 | 560 | 570 | 570 |
| Guide high | 605 | 575 | 570 | 640 | 600 | 610 | 620 | 620 |
| Actual | 605.2 | 570.8 | 568.2 | 634.4 | 609.0 | 617.7 | 634.5 | Not reported |
| Vs midpoint | +4.3% | +3.8% | +4.3% | +3.2% | +5.9% | +5.6% | +6.6% | Open |
| Mark | At high | In range | Near high | In range | Above high | Above high | Above high | — |
The guide in each column is the range issued with the prior print. Actuals are price-reconciliation sales volume. Q4 2024 was a fraction through a 605 high end. Call it at the cap. The last three actuals cleared the high end. Cash capex was under the low end in all seven of those quarters. Q2 cash capex was $650 million. The July release’s $666 million figure is a different series, also under the low end. Do not blend them. Q3’s $710–$820 million band is above that $650 million actual. The April call said Q2 would be the peak spend quarter. Against Q2 actual, the Q3 guide does not show that decline. Against Q2’s guided peak, it does.
Q3 2026 has not printed. The columns below are reported quarters. The last column is the guide, not a result. Sales volume is the price-reconciliation series in Mmcfe, shown in Bcfe. YoY is versus the year-ago quarter, never the prior quarter. Negative rates are the point: volume reaccelerated for three comparisons and the guide asks for that to reverse, while price already flipped in Q2.
| Metric | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 | Q3'26 guide |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales volume (Bcfe) | 581.4 | 605.2 | 570.8 | 568.2 | 634.4 | 609.0 | 617.7 | 634.5 | 595 mid |
| Volume YoY | +11.2% | +7.3% | +6.9% | +12.0% | +9.1% | +0.6% | +8.2% | +11.7% | −6.2% |
| Realized price ($/Mcfe) | $2.38 | $3.01 | $3.77 | $2.81 | $2.76 | $3.44 | $5.08 | $2.65 | Not guided |
| Price YoY | +4.4% | +9.5% | +17.1% | +20.6% | +16.0% | +14.3% | +34.7% | −5.7% | — |
| Adj. EBITDA ($M) | 824.1 | 1,399.6 | 1,643.9 | 1,033.3 | 1,199.5 | 1,509.0 | 2,547.0 | 1,067.0 | Not guided |
| EBITDA YoY | — | — | — | — | +45.5% | +7.8% | +54.9% | +3.3% | Street −10.9% |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.12 | $0.69 | $1.18 | $0.45 | $0.52 | $0.90 | $2.33 | $0.39 | Not guided |
| EPS YoY | −60.0% | +43.8% | +43.9% | vs a loss | +333% | +30.4% | +97.5% | −13.3% | Street −29.2% |
EBITDA year-over-year before Q3 2025 is left blank rather than filled from a series that was not pulled. The path that is in the file is the one that matters: +45.5%, +7.8%, +54.9%, +3.3%. Consensus asks for −10.9% next. That is deceleration into decline, not a pause. The +333% EPS cell is a small base, $0.12 a year earlier. It is not a run-rate. Q2 2025 EPS year-over-year is a swing from a loss of −$0.08 to a profit, so it is not shown as a percent. Net debt at June 30 was $5,542.9 million, about $543 million above the $5 billion target and only $123 million below March 31. Free cash flow attributable to EQT was $329.7 million in Q2, +37.6% versus $239.6 million, off a low base and against a higher Q3 capex guide.
Current quarter
Internal is n/a on every row. % difference versus the guide is n/a because FMP does not publish the lines EQT guides, and EQT does not guide the lines FMP publishes.
| Q3 2026 metric | Guide low | Guide high | Mid | FMP | YoY at mid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales volume (Bcfe) | 570 | 620 | 595 | Not published | −6.2% |
| Total liquids (Mbbl) | 5,150 | 5,600 | 5,375 | Not published | −16.8% vs 6,459 |
| Ethane (Mbbl) | 1,750 | 1,900 | 1,825 | Not published | −9.9% vs 2,026 |
| Differential ($/Mcf) | (0.75) | (0.65) | (0.70) | Not published | $0.02 wider than actual |
| Unit operating cost ($/Mcfe) | 1.09 | 1.23 | 1.16 | Not published | +16% vs $1.00 |
| Operating revenue | Not guided | Not guided | Not guided | $1,771.0M | −9.6% |
| EPS | Not guided | Not guided | Not guided | $0.368 | −29.2% |
| Gross / operating / EBITDA margin | Not guided | Not guided | Not guided | Not published | n/a |
On a differential row, “high” is the less negative number. Ethane’s Q3 guide midpoint is −9.9% versus last year’s actual after Q2 ethane of 2,322 Mbbl was +47.6% year over year. Liquids are guided down harder than gas. A liquids miss would show up in revenue even if basis is in line. Third-party midstream revenue is guided at $130–$155 million, unchanged versus the year-ago quarterly guide. Q3 net wells turned in line are guided at 34–50. Activity is guided up while sales volume is guided down. That gap is the shut-in option.
FQ+1 guide — Q4 2026
No quarterly guide was issued for Q4. The 2026Q2 grid is the Q3 guide under the one-quarter offset. The residual below is arithmetic, not guidance. It assumes the FY midpoint and the Q3 midpoint are both hit.
| Q4 2026 | Company guide | FMP consensus | YoY vs Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales volume | Not guided | Not published | Implied ~565 Bcfe, −7.2% vs 609.0 |
| Differential, liquids, unit cost, capex | Not guided | Not published | — |
| Operating revenue | Not guided | $2,139.5 million | −10.4% vs $2,388.1 million |
| EPS | Not guided | $0.779 | −13.4% vs $0.90 |
| EBITDA | Not guided | $1,396.6 million | −7.4% vs $1,509.0 million |
FMP ranges for the quarter ending December 30: revenue $2,067.5–$2,232.1 million (6 analysts), EPS $0.554–$0.995 (9), EBITDA $1,214.3–$1,570.7 million. A higher dollar level than Q3 is seasonal. It is not growth. The street’s Q4 is still down versus last Q4 on all three lines.
FY+1 guide — FY2027 is not guided
The block under the FY2027 rows is the standing FY2026 guide from July 21. It has not been updated. The October 13 8-K did not touch it. The Range announcement did not touch it.
| Full year | FY2026 guide | FY2026 FMP | Vs FY2025 | FY2027 FMP | Vs FY2026 FMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales volume (Bcfe) | 2,375–2,450 | Not published | Mid +1.3% vs 2,382.4 | Not guided | — |
| Differential ($/Mcf) | (0.55)–(0.35) | Not published | Unchanged since February | Not guided | — |
| Unit cost ($/Mcfe) | 1.05–1.20 | Not published | Q3 mid $1.16 sits above the year | Not guided | — |
| Maintenance capex | $2.04B–$2.19B | Not published | Mid −$25 million vs prior guide | Not guided | — |
| Strategic growth capex | $0.58B–$0.64B | Not published | Unchanged | Not guided | — |
| Revenue | Not guided | $9,123.8 million | +5.5% vs $8,644.2 million | $8,875.1 million | −2.7% |
| EPS | Not guided | $3.943 | +29.3% vs $3.05 | $3.655 | −7.3% |
| EBITDA | Not guided | $6,106.8 million | +13.4% vs $5,385.7 million | $5,831.9 million | −4.5% |
FY2026 consensus ranges: revenue $8,944.5–$9,671.6 million (8 analysts), EPS $3.53–$4.31 (13), EBITDA $5,795.0–$6,426.6 million. FY2027 ranges: revenue $8,683.0–$9,057.0 million (8), EPS $2.76–$4.26 (11), EBITDA $5,134.9–$6,348.7 million. Nothing in the July outlook puts a 2027 step-down, or a 2027 re-acceleration, into a number. The street’s step-down is consensus versus consensus. Id 173915534 is the maintenance low, not total capex. Do not carry February strip language of about $6.5 billion of EBITDA forward. It was not restated on July 21.
Tone on operations is the best it has been in this four-call stretch, and it is still a confirmation tape. July already banked two above-guidance production quarters, refused to lift the next quarterly band, and left the differential where it was in February. Since then Rice has repeated the same daily rate, defended curtailments as a feature worth a little over $200 million a year, and signed another LNG contract that does not deliver this year. The board raised the quarterly dividend by half a cent, from $0.165 to $0.17, which the company calls 3%. Knop pre-released $70 million of hedge cash and a $100 million derivatives gain. None of that is a new Bcfe range. This morning’s merger cancelled the call. It did not replace the ranges.
The direction from February to July is one-way, from “keep risk in the forecast” to “the beats keep coming and buybacks are next.” What has not changed is the refusal to put the outer-year demand story into this year’s differential or this year’s growth. September did not extend that shift.
| Call | Willing to say | Would not underwrite |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 (Feb 18) | Initial FY2026 volume 2,275–2,375 Bcfe. “There is risk embedded in that production forecast.” | Upstream growth is a 2027 conversation. Buybacks closer than people think, not the base case. |
| Q1 2026 (Apr 22) | Record quarter. Volume above the high end. Fitch to BBB. Put 10–15 Bcf of curtailments into the Q2 guide. Called Q2 the peak capital quarter. | Did not raise the 2,275–2,375 full-year range. Called a midyear update the normal window. |
| Q2 2026 (Jul 22) | Raised volume about 90 Bcfe and cut capex $25 million in the same sentence. Compression ahead of the upside case. Buybacks now more top of mind. Free cash flow $329.7 million at a $2.89 Henry Hub. | Would not tighten the 2026 differential, claim 2026 cash flow from Southgate, or lift the Q3 band off 570–620 Bcfe. Hedges aimed at summer 2027, not this quarter. |
| After July 22 | Sept 22: Rice restated 6.5–6.7 Bcfe/d and the maintenance-capital cut, and said curtailments in recent months are a feature. Oct 13: preliminary $100 million derivative gain. Oct 14: dividend to $0.17. Oct 26: Range deal, calls cancelled. | No restated Bcfe, differential, or capital range. The 8-K is a hedge footnote, not an operating preannounce. The merger is not a Q3 guide. |
What is carrying the July ranges, and what is not in them:
- Compression is the volume bridge, and it was not fully in the July model. Rice tied the beats to base production and to wells producing into lower gathering pressure. The full-year turn-in-line range was cut to 120–145 from 125–150. Fewer wells, more volume, lower maintenance capital. More outperformance is possible. It is not what 570–620 assumes.
- Q2’s beat used a curtailment reserve that Q3 does not restate. The July release attributed the beat to well performance, system pressure, and lower-than-expected price-related curtailments. On September 22 Rice told Reuters that record 2026 output was still the plan despite curtailed production in recent months. That sentence covers part of the quarter now being reported. The band is wide enough to hide that choice.
- The contracts they are celebrating are not 2026 earnings. CPV is about 325 MMcf/d into a plant aimed at 2031. Knop’s illustration, if it had flowed a full year in 2027, was about $100 million of free cash flow. The Southeast utility contracts he sized at about $300 million a year start late 2027 into 2028. Ignitis is one cargo a year from 2027. Southgate spend is in the equity range. Rice said they are not seeing benefits from the acceleration right now.
- Cost is assumed to fall by a trim, not a new curve. The July evidence is a $0.01–$0.02/Mcfe unit-cost cut, maintenance capital down, well count down, volume up. Consistent. Not a quantified 2027 cost curve.
What would threaten the document: a volume print under 570 Bcfe, a differential wider than ($0.75)/Mcf, or unit costs above $1.23/Mcfe. What would threaten the reaction, on Q2’s own pattern, is a volume “beat” delivered at a realized price that looks like $2.65/Mcfe again. No guidance has been withdrawn. Rice and Knop are still CEO and CFO. The report date was confirmed on October 7, not delayed. The call was cancelled. The release was not.
The catalysts management is selling do not hit this print. The 570–620 Bcfe volume guide does. Power, pipe, LNG, and buybacks are commentary. FY2027 consensus already sits below FY2026, which is the street’s answer to the re-inflection speech. The open item that can move tomorrow’s standalone numbers is where volume and basis land, plus the preliminary hedge mark. The Range agreement changes what those numbers are a baseline for. It does not change the baseline.
| Catalyst | What it does to Q3 | What consensus believes | Status and source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 sales volume vs 570–620 Bcfe | This is the number that decides an operating beat. Midpoint 595 is −6.2% vs 634.4 Bcfe. Clearing 620 would still be down year over year and would crowd a 2,375–2,450 year. | No volume consensus. Revenue −9.6% is a bit worse than a −6% volume dip if price holds near last year’s $2.76. | Unchanged since July. Rice restated 6.5–6.7 Bcfe/d on Sept 22, which is the annual band, not a raise. Q2 actual 634.5 Bcfe beat a same-width range. History and the shut-in comment point opposite ways. |
| Differential and late-September basis | Guide ($0.75) to ($0.65). Mid ($0.70) vs Q3 2025 actual ($0.68). Wider than ($0.75) is the miss path even if volume beats. That is what Q2 just did on EPS. | Not in FMP. The extra drop from volume (−6%) to EPS (−29%) is the street’s price assumption. Q3 hedge book was already 125 MMDth and did not change. Most of the quarter is not locked to Henry Hub. | Tetco M2 was reported below $1.50 in mid-September, inside the quarter and at the old curtailment trigger. October basis (TETCO M2 around ($1.085) on the November contract) is a Q4 question. EIA October STEO: Henry Hub $3.48 in 2026 and $3.16 in 2027. |
| Liquids and ethane step-down | Ethane guide midpoint about −10% YoY after a +48% Q2. Total liquids midpoint about −17% vs 6,459 Mbbl. | Sits inside the revenue consensus. A beat helps revenue without proving the gas thesis. | No update since the July ranges. Daloopa ids 173916441 and 173916617. |
| Shut-in program | Already inside the volume guide. Rice sized it at a little over $200 million a year. It is why 595 Bcfe is plausible after a 634 Bcfe Q2, and why a beat is a choice. | Revenue and EBITDA consensus already assume the guided volume dip. The $200 million figure is a run-rate comment, not a Q3 revenue add. | Reuters, Sept 22. Not a guidance revision. |
| Hedge footnote | Preliminary $100 million derivatives gain, $70 million cash ($68 million NYMEX, $2 million basis and liquids). Smaller than Q3 2025’s $135.8 million gain. Not large enough by itself to close a −9.6% revenue decline. | Consensus is not underwriting another derivative-gain quarter. The $1.771 billion revenue bar sits $188 million under last year’s operating revenue and only about $93 million above last year’s commodity-sales line of $1,677.6 million. | 8-K, Oct 13. Finals wait for the release. If FMP books GAAP revenue, the mark will look like a revenue beat management will not talk about. Score ex-derivatives. |
| Southgate cash call | Cash, not earnings. Q3 equity contributions $60–$70 million, separate from the $710–$820 million maintenance-plus-growth sum. FCF headwind versus a Q3 2025 base of $483.8 million. | No Southgate or capex line in FMP. No FCF consensus. Higher guided capex makes an FCF beat a harder ask than an EBITDA beat. | July call: construction availability around year-end 2026, commercial start still open, any gas-flow benefit upside to 2027. Do not import a “late 2026 flow” date from later press into the Q3 volume bridge. |
| Debt target, dividend, buybacks | Unlikely to clear $5 billion from operations alone. Net debt $5,542.9 million at June 30. Dividend raised to $0.17 from $0.165. No shares bought in the first half. Authorization runs to December 31, 2026. | No buyback or year-end net-debt line in FMP. A buyback that has not been disclosed cannot be what FY2027 estimates are discounting. | Dividend release, Oct 14. The thing to read in the release is whether any shares were bought in Q3. The Range deal now sits in front of that chapter. |
| Power, POWER pipe, LNG | Zero Q3 volume. CPV Shay is 2031. POWER open season closed today, non-binding, in service targeted 2030, no award found. Ignitis is one cargo a year from 2027, about 0.1% of a 2,400 Bcfe book. The 0.5 mtpa offtake starts in 2028. | FY2027 EPS $3.655 is 7.3% below FY2026 $3.943. The street heard the summer-2027 soft spot. It did not put 2028–2031 contracts into the forecast window it will pay for. | Knop said at least one more power deal, maybe a large one, could be signed before year-end. None has been disclosed. Do not expect a binding FID on the cancelled call. |
| Range Resources, all stock | Does not change tomorrow’s standalone print. Changes the company that print is a baseline for. Close targeted Q1 2027, so Q3 and, on the current timetable, Q4 still print as EQT alone. Calls cancelled. Results still after the close. | FMP FY2026 EBITDA of $6.107 billion does not include Range. The $325 million synergy case is roughly 5% of that standalone figure and is a company projection, not a guide raise. | Joint 8-K exhibit, Oct 26. 0.987x, about 73/27. Both shareholder votes and HSR still open. Termination fee $423 million if Range pays, $1,148 million if EQT pays. |
Peers do not set this print up. Expand Energy and Range report the same night. Antero is the next day. CNX is October 29. Kinder Morgan reported October 21 and raised a gas-infrastructure backlog. That confirms pipe demand somewhere. It does not put molecules on EQT’s Q3 sales line. Range will still print standalone results because the close is guided to Q1 2027.
What the release has to answer, now that there is no call: did sales clear 620 Bcfe or did curtailments land the quarter near 595; did the differential stay inside ($0.75)–($0.65); where did ethane and liquids land versus the double-digit declines; were any shares bought; was a second power agreement signed; did Southgate commercial terms move. A 2030 pipe and a Lithuanian cargo will not force FY2027 estimates up. Another speech about 2031 will not either.
The Q3 operating guide was untouched from July 21 until this morning, and it is still untouched. No IR release moved sales volume, capex, or turn-in-line. The tape since the Q2 print does not revise 570–620 Bcfe. What it changes, on the morning of this preview, is the company that will report it. Items are most recent first. Dollar figures in the deal row are company claims, not Daloopa fundamentals, and the quarter is not treated as reported.
| Date | Headline | What it does | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | EQT agrees to buy Range Resources, all stock. 0.987 EQT shares per Range share. Holders about 73/27. Close targeted Q1 2027. Oct 28 calls cancelled. Results still after the close on Oct 27. | This is the news. It does not change tomorrow’s standalone print. Company claims, all forward-looking: pro forma enterprise value over $50 billion; combined production above 9 Bcfe/d versus EQT’s 6.5–6.7 Bcfe/d guide; $325 million of base annual synergies within two years; about $20 billion of cumulative free cash flow over five years at strip. EQT management stays. Both votes and HSR are open. Outside date Oct 25, 2027. The fee asymmetry ($1,148 million vs $423 million) says EQT pays more to walk away. No Q3 volume, price, or capex was updated. | 8-K Exhibit 99.1 |
| 2026-10-23 | DEP inspection of an Equitrans plugging in Greene County finds more spills. Six new violations. Response requested by Nov 9. | Unquantified. No volume, no penalty dollar, no production curtailment, no 8-K. Does not move 570–620 Bcfe. Keeps the Equitrans environmental file open into a call that has now been cancelled, so the question moves to the release or a later forum. | PA Environment Digest |
| 2026-10-21 | Day 119 at the Richter impoundment. DEP still finds contaminated seeps and a failure to comply with the June 30 cleanup order. | The August compliance item is not closed. Volumes, conductivity, and any fine are still not in a company filing. A cost and reputation overhang on the water business, not a Q3 volume driver, unless a later order curtails operations. Nothing like that has been reported. | PA Environment Digest, Oct 21 |
| 2026-10-14 | Quarterly dividend to $0.17 from $0.165. Company calls it 3%. Annualized regular dividend $0.68. Payable Dec 1 to holders of record Nov 4. | Real, and small next to the merger. The step is $0.02 per share annualized. On the 625,516,000 FMP shares outstanding, that is about $12.5 million a year. It does not change Q3 sales, realization, or the July capex range. The base dividend still steps up while buybacks versus the $5 billion net-debt target were unresolved, and are now subordinate to integrating Range. | EQT release |
| 2026-10-13 | Preliminary Q3 derivative gain of $100 million. Net cash settlements received $70 million. No premiums paid or received on derivatives that settled. | Not the earnings release. Dollars can change. Cash is $70 million of the $100 million, so about $30 million is the residual implied by those two lines. The company did not label that residual. Q2’s derivative gain was $44.6 million. Does not update sales volume, capex, or the 570–620 range. How much lands in adjusted earnings is a tomorrow question. | 8-K, Knop |
| 2026-10-07 | Commercial paper program up to $3.5 billion, maturities no longer than 397 days. None issued. Moody’s assigns Prime-3 and affirms Baa3, outlook positive. Same day, the Q3 date was set. | Liquidity, not a volume item. Zero outstanding means it did not fund Q3. The Range deal is all stock, so this program is not the consideration. The scheduling release only confirmed October 27. It was not a guide update. The merger release is what cancelled the call. The release date was not moved. | CP 8-K |
| 2026-09-22 | Rice: shut-in program worth a little over $200 million a year. 2026 still more volume and less spending. POWER could exceed 1 Bcf/d. About 6 million tonnes a year of LNG to sell around 2030–31. | The only post-print management number that can touch this quarter’s realization, and he did not put it inside or outside the July guide. He did not move 570–620 Bcfe. The 6.5–6.7 Bcfe/d rate and the $2.04–$2.19 billion maintenance band are the July guide restated. If Q3 Appalachian prices were weak, the same throttle would push volume toward the low end and support price. He did not say which one happened. | Reuters |
| 2026-09-21 | Ignitis signs a 10-year LNG SPA with an EQT subsidiary. One cargo a year, 2027–2036, Henry Hub and TTF. | Real contract, immaterial volume. One cargo is on the order of 3 Bcf, about half a day of the 2026 sales-rate guide, once a year, starting in the second half of 2027. Nothing hits Q3 or FY2026. | Reuters / Natural Gas Intelligence, Sept 22 |
| 2026-09-02 | Non-binding open season for the POWER pipeline. Up to 1.0 Bcf/d, Pennsylvania to Ohio, service targeted 2030. Bid window through Oct 26. | No award, binding precedent agreement, or FERC filing was found as of this note. A 2030 pipe cannot add 2026 volume. The open season is an option. The Range deal is a signed way to own more of the molecules the pipe would have moved. | NGI, Sept 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | CPV and EQT name the July gas-supply agreement: 10 years, full burn of the 2,100 MW Shay Energy Center, described as more than 100 Bcf a year. Plant aimed at 2031. | Same contract, more terms. 325,000 Dth/d is about 0.33 Bcf/d. Against the 2026 sales midpoint of 2,412.5 Bcfe that is about 5% of a year’s sales, but deliveries start at commercial operation. No EQT capex was disclosed. It does not move Q3. | July 21 release already had the 325,000 Dth/d term. Aug 17 added the plant name. |
| 2026-08-12 | S&P revises the EQT outlook to positive from stable and affirms BBB−. | Credit trajectory on the standalone company, before the merger. Primary S&P text was not opened, so the secondary-source leverage ratios are not repeated here. The Oct 26 release says the all-stock deal is “expected to provide BBB quality credit metrics at closing.” That is EQT’s sentence, not an S&P upgrade. No post-deal rating action was found. | S&P action dated Aug 12, as reported the same day. Primary text not opened. |
Read-through. Everything commercial before this morning was 2027–2031. Shay is about 0.33 Bcf/d of power-linked gas around 2031. POWER is up to 1 Bcf/d of takeaway aimed at 2030, and its open season ends today without a published award. Ignitis is one cargo a year from 2027. Trajectory of that contracting effort was up. Trajectory of reported 2026 volumes was not what those contracts change. The Range agreement overtakes that sequence. It is the first item since July 21 that changes the asset, the share count, the balance-sheet path S&P just put on positive outlook, and the calendar. Guidance was not withdrawn. There is no CEO or CFO change at EQT. The red flag that is operational rather than financial is the Greene County file: Richter still out of compliance on day 119, and a separate plugging site drew another set of violations on October 19. Neither has a disclosed volume or fine.
Excluded on purpose: the July 21 Q2 package (that is the baseline, including BlackLine, the 0.5 mtpa 2028 offtake, and the Southgate pull-forward); the prior $0.165 dividend; Toby Rice’s August 14 sale of 175,328 shares under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted March 6 (scheduled, not a Q3 signal); EQT AB headlines (wrong company); routine rating changes with no new operating fact. Price and price targets are not used.
Mixed. Adjusted EPS beat FMP in 10 of 12 quarters from Q3 2023 through Q2 2026, met it once, and missed once. The surprise faded. The last four quarters are +43.8%, +18.4%, +12.0%, and −5.4%. Revenue excluding derivatives beat in 7 of 12 and in the last 7 straight, but the latest beat is +0.1%. The count still says beat. The trajectory says a small one, or another miss, if realized prices look like Q2 rather than Q1. The trajectory is the one that has been moving. Q3 2026 has not printed.
Daloopa has no consensus series for EQT. Actual adjusted EPS (series 2090896) equals FMP epsActual in all 12 quarters. The heatmap uses operating revenue excluding the derivative gain or loss in every quarter, so the comparison is one series. In four quarters FMP’s own published revenue actual switches to GAAP total and folds the derivative mark back in. Those four FMP-published revenue surprises are not used. Q2 2026’s GAAP revenue “beat” of +2.6% is the $44.6 million derivative gain. Ex-derivatives, the same quarter is +0.1%. A beat is any positive surprise. Q4 2023 EPS was a dead zero and is in-line, not a beat.
| Surprise vs FMP | Q3'23 | Q4'23 | Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev. ex-derivatives | −10.9% | −12.7% | −17.3% | −16.1% | −10.2% | +1.9% | +11.9% | +4.3% | +0.7% | +6.8% | +12.5% | +0.1% |
| Adjusted EPS | +350% | 0.0% | +26.9% | +58.8% | +58.4% | +29.7% | +14.6% | +7.3% | +43.8% | +18.4% | +12.0% | −5.4% |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.30 | $0.48 | $0.82 | −$0.08 | $0.12 | $0.69 | $1.18 | $0.45 | $0.52 | $0.90 | $2.33 | $0.39 |
Green (#1E8449) is a clear beat. Yellow (#D4AC0D) is in-line or a beat under 2%, which is where the revenue streak has faded. Red (#C0392B) is a miss. The only red EPS cell is Q2 2026. The +350% EPS cell is a profit of $0.30 versus a −$0.12 estimate. It is a real beat and it is off any linear scale. Do not carry it into this print.
Revenue surprise magnitude improved, then stalled. The four-quarter average went from −14.2% to +2.0% to +5.0%. Five straight misses of 10% or more, then no miss. Inside the last four the path is +0.7%, +6.8%, +12.5%, +0.1%. The +12.5% is the winter-price quarter, realized price $5.08. Q2 gave the price back. Ex-derivative revenue itself went from +49.5% year over year in Q1 2026 to −3.9% in Q2 2026. Volume did not roll over. Price did.
Adjusted-EPS surprise magnitude is deteriorating. From Q3 2025 the percent is +43.8%, +18.4%, +12.0%, −5.4%. The last print is the first miss in the 12 quarters, and it is small (−$0.022 versus a $0.412 estimate). It is still a break in the streak. Management does not walk adjusted EPS versus the street. The variance they explain is versus their own guide: volume, differential, costs, capital, and free cash flow. On the Q2 call Knop said the company exceeded expectations across virtually every financial metric and raised the full-year volume guide by 90 Bcfe. The street’s adjusted-EPS print was still a miss. The operating beat and the EPS miss are not the same event.
Into tomorrow, FMP’s $0.368 bar is almost exactly last year’s pre-print estimate of $0.362, not last year’s actual of $0.52. A repeat of last year’s actual would be about a +41% surprise. A repeat of Q2’s $0.39 would be about a +6% surprise. Nothing in the non-winter path says a return to a +40% surprise is the central case. The lower bar makes a small beat easier than the $0.441 bar did a month ago. It does not restore the old beat regime. Beating 620 Bcfe is not the same as beating $0.368. Q2 just separated those two. If FMP keeps booking GAAP operating revenue, derivatives included, score the print on adjusted EPS and on revenue excluding the derivative line.