EQT — Q1 2026 Earnings Preview
EQT Corporation | Results AMC April 21, 2026; Call April 22 at 10:00 AM ET | Largest U.S. Natural Gas Producer | ~$22B market cap | Preview date: April 14, 2026
Earnings Call
Apr 22
10:00 AM ET · Results AMC Apr 21
Q1 Adj EPS Consensus
~$1.80
vs. $1.18 Q1 2025 (+52% YoY est.)
Q1 Production Guide
560–610
Bcfe — FY2026: 2,275-2,375 Bcfe total
January HH Price
$7.72
Per MMBtu avg — decade high · Q1 upside driver
Q4 2025 Adj EPS Beat
+23%
$0.90 vs. $0.73E · Production at high end
FY2026 FCF Guide
$3.5B
Including $600M elective growth investments
Q4 2025 Differential
+$0.10
$/Mcf avg (first positive diff) · MVP impact
MVP Ownership
~53%
Post-Jan 2026 acquisition · +3.94% added
Investment Setup: January 2026 Was an Extraordinary Gas Price Environment — Q1 2026 is the Result Print
1. The January spike: Henry Hub averaged $7.72/MMBtu in January 2026 — the highest monthly average in over a decade, driven by an extreme Arctic cold snap and record heating demand. EQT's curtailment strategy is designed to hold back production at low prices and maximize output at high prices. January was the payoff quarter for that strategy. With ~200 Bcfe in production, even a partial capture of January's premium pricing could add $300-500M to Q1 EBITDA vs. year-ago.
2. Differential inflection: Q4 2025 was the first quarter EQT's differential turned positive (+$0.10/Mcf). This reflects the Mountain Valley Pipeline now operating at full capacity, unlocking Appalachian gas into premium Southeast and Gulf markets. The differential improvement is structural — not weather-related — and could add $0.15-0.25/Mcfe to realized price vs. prior years when Appalachian basis was a persistent -$0.70 headwind.
3. The EPS math is straightforward: Production ~585 Bcfe × realized price ~$4.50-5.00/Mcfe = ~$2.6-2.9B revenue before hedging. At Q1 2025's 37% EBITDA margin, that implies $960M-$1.1B adj EBITDA vs. $1.6B in Q1 2025 — but Q1 2025's higher EBITDA was driven by $3.77/Mcfe realized price. If Q1 2026 achieves $4.50+/Mcfe from the January spike, Q1 2026 EBITDA could rival or exceed Q1 2025's record.
Q1 2026 guidance issued at Q4 2025 call (February 17, 2026). Results TBA April 21-22.
| Metric | Q1 Guide Low | Q1 Guide High | Guide Mid | Consensus | Q1 Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production (Bcfe) | 560 | 610 | 585 | ~580 | TBA Apr 22 |
| Adj EPS (diluted) | — | — | — | ~$1.80 | TBA Apr 22 |
| Henry Hub Q1 2026 Actual Avg | — | — | — | — | ~$5.15 est. |
| FY2026 Adj EBITDA | — | — | ~$6.5B | ~$6.5B | FY — TBA |
| FY2026 Free Cash Flow | — | — | ~$3.5B | ~$3.5B | FY — TBA |
Henry Hub Q1 2026 Estimate: Jan $7.72 + Feb $3.62 + Mar ~$4.12 = Q1 weighted avg ~$5.15/MMBtu (vs. Q1 2025: $3.66/Mcfe realized). This is a +41% YoY price uplift before any differential change. With positive differential now (+$0.10/Mcf vs. -$0.75 two years ago), realized price to EQT could reach $5.00-5.50/Mcfe — the highest in years. Consensus EPS of ~$1.80 vs. Q1 2025's $1.18 (+52%) may be conservative.
Production (Bcfe) vs. Guidance
| Quarter | Guide Range (Bcfe) | Actual (Bcfe) |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | 455–505 | 534 |
| Q2 2024 | 510–560 | 508 |
| Q3 2024 | 555–605 | 581 |
| Q4 2024 | 525–575 | 605 |
| Q1 2025 | 520–570 | 571 |
| Q2 2025 | 590–640 | 568 |
| Q3 2025 | 550–600 | 634 |
| Q4 2025 | 560–610 | 609 |
| Q1 2026E | 560–610 Bcfe | ~585 est. |
Green = beat high end; Red = missed low. Q3 2025 +34 Bcfe above high end; Q4 2025 at high end.
Realized Price vs. Henry Hub ($/Mcfe)
| Quarter | Realized $/Mcfe | HH $/Mcf | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | $3.22 | $3.08 | +$0.14 |
| Q2 2024 | $2.33 | $2.16 | +$0.17 |
| Q3 2024 | $2.38 | $2.23 | +$0.15 |
| Q4 2024 | $3.01 | $2.86 | +$0.15 |
| Q1 2025 | $3.77 | $3.66 | +$0.11 |
| Q2 2025 | $2.81 | $2.69 | +$0.12 |
| Q3 2025 | $2.76 | $2.66 | +$0.10 |
| Q4 2025 | $3.44 | $3.32 | +$0.12 |
| Q1 2026E | ~$4.50-5.50 | ~$5.15 | ~+$0.20 |
Q4 2025 differential turned positive for first time: MVP providing direct SE/Gulf market access vs. prior -$0.70+ Appalachian basis headwind.
Adj EBITDA Attributable to EQT ($M)
| Quarter | Adj EBITDA (EQT share) |
|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | N/A (pre-combination) |
| Q2 2024 | N/A (pre-combination) |
| Q3 2024 | $824M |
| Q4 2024 | $1,400M |
| Q1 2025 | $1,644M |
| Q2 2025 | $1,033M |
| Q3 2025 | $1,200M |
| Q4 2025 | $1,509M |
| Q1 2026E | ~$1.5-2.0B est. |
FY2026 guidance ~$6.5B total = ~$1.6B/Q avg. Q1 2025 was $1.6B on $3.77 realized price. Q1 2026 at $5.00+ could match or exceed this.
Adj EPS from Continuing Operations
| Quarter | Adj EPS |
|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | $0.82 |
| Q2 2024 | $-0.08 |
| Q3 2024 | $0.12 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.69 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.18 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.45 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.52 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.90 |
| Q1 2026E | ~$1.80 consensus |
EPS volatility reflects gas price seasonality. Q1 and Q4 are highest due to winter demand. Q2/Q3 are shoulder seasons. Q4 2025 $0.90 beat consensus $0.73 by +23%.
| Quarter | Guidance Range (Bcfe) | Actual (Bcfe) | vs. Guidance | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | 455–505 | 534 | +29 vs. high | BEAT HIGH END |
| Q2 2024 | 510–560 | 508 | -2.5 vs. low | SLIGHT MISS |
| Q3 2024 | 555–605 | 581 | Within range | IN-RANGE |
| Q4 2024 | 525–575 | 605 | +30 vs. high | BEAT HIGH END |
| Q1 2025 | 520–570 | 571 | At high end | AT HIGH END |
| Q2 2025 | 590–640 | 568 | -22 vs. low | MISS |
| Q3 2025 | 550–600 | 634 | +34 vs. high | BEAT HIGH END |
| Q4 2025 | 560–610 | 609 | At high end | AT HIGH END |
| Q1 2026E | 560–610 | TBD | TBD | PENDING |
Production tracking: 5/8 quarters at or above guidance high end. Q2 2025 miss driven by intentional curtailment at low prices (strategy, not operations). Q3 2025 and Q1 2024 beat high end by +6%+ each.
| Catalyst | Timing | Consensus | Bull Case | Bear Case | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Adj EPS vs. ~$1.80 consensus | Apr 22 call | ~$1.80 (consensus) — Jan spike creates upside | $2.00-2.50+ if Jan $7.72 avg fully captured | <$1.50 if curtailments limited production during spike | TIER 1 |
| Q1 2026 Realized Price $/Mcfe | Apr 22 call | ~$4.00-$5.00 (Jan spike + Feb/Mar pullback) | Above $5.00 suggests excellent marketing + low curtailment | Below $3.50 suggests most price upside was hedged away | TIER 1 |
| Q1 2026 Production vs. 560-610 Bcfe | Apr 22 call | ~570-590 Bcfe (mid-range) | Above 600 Bcfe — curtailment strategy works at high prices | Below 560 Bcfe — unexpected mechanical issues | TIER 2 |
| FY2026 EBITDA Guidance vs. ~$6.5B | Apr 22 call | Maintain ~$6.5B on strong Q1 price environment | Raised above $7.0B if gas curve moved up | Lowered below $6.0B on April price collapse | TIER 2 |
| Differential Commentary — Is Positive Diff Sustainable? | Apr 22 call | Q4 2025 was first positive diff; Q1 expect ~+$0.10-$0.30 | Positive diff of +$0.20+ sustained — MVP at full capacity | Diff reverts negative on constraint/curtailment mix | TIER 2 |
| FY2026 FCF vs. $3.5B Guide | Apr 22 call | Maintain $3.5B; Q1 strong start | Raised if gas curve materially higher than at guidance | Lowered on price deterioration or cost overruns | TIER 2 |
| MVP Pipeline Ownership Update | Apr 22 call | ~53% ownership; contributing distributions | Additional ownership increase or expansion announced | No update | TIER 3 |
| Capital Allocation / Buyback Update | Apr 22 call | Continue buybacks; maintain $1.2B capex | Accelerated buybacks given FCF windfall from Q1 | Capex increase or acquisition signaled | TIER 3 |
| LNG / Export Demand Commentary | Apr 22 call | Constructive on demand growth | New LNG offtake contract announced | LNG uncertainty cited; demand outlook reduced | TIER 3 |
Peer Calendar
| Date | Ticker | Company | Period | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | EQT | EQT Corporation | Q1 2026 | This Report |
| Apr 24, 2026 | AR | Antero Resources | Q1 2026 | Appalachian Basin peer; gas price read-through |
| May 1, 2026 | RRC | Range Resources | Q1 2026 | Marcellus shale peer; basis differential comparison |
| May 6, 2026 | CTRA | Coterra Energy | Q1 2026 | Diversified gas/oil; gas price sentiment |
| May 8, 2026 | COG | Cabot Oil & Gas | Q1 2026 | Pure-play Marcellus; direct comp |
| Date | Headline | Detail | Thesis Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2026 | Q4 2025: Adj EPS $0.90 vs $0.73E (+23%); FY2025 FCF $2.5B; FY2026 Adj EBITDA ~$6.5B | Record FY2025. Q4 production 609 Bcfe (high end of 560-610 guide). Differential turned POSITIVE for first time. FY2026 guided: vol 2,275-2,375 Bcfe; EBITDA ~$6.5B; FCF ~$3.5B. | Strongly Positive — major EPS beat; guidance upgrade; differential improvement signals MVP impact |
| Jan 2, 2026 | EQT Exercises Option to Acquire Additional 3.94% in Mountain Valley Pipeline | Increases EQT's ownership in MVP Mainline and MVP Boost to ~53%. Total consideration $213M. MVP full commercial operations began 2024 — now generating distributions. | Positive — increases control over premier Appalachian take-away; improves realized differential |
| Jan 2026 | Henry Hub Natural Gas Hits $7.72/MMBtu Average in January 2026 — Decade High | Arctic cold snap drives extreme winter demand. Henry Hub averaged $7.72 in January. EQT curtailment strategy means production optimized to maximize price capture. | Strongly Positive — January alone could account for ~$600M+ EBITDA; Q1 2026 is a strong earnings setup |
| Feb-Mar 2026 | Henry Hub Normalizes: February $3.62, March ~$4.12/MMBtu | Gas prices pull back from January spike but remain above year-ago levels. LNG export demand growth and Haynesville production declines support floor. | Neutral — January spike not sustained, but Q1 average still well above Q1 2025 levels |
| Mar-Apr 2026 | LNG Export Capacity Expansion Accelerates — Structural Long-Term Gas Demand Signal | Multiple new LNG trains expected to come online 2026-2027. EQT benefits disproportionately as largest US gas producer with favorable Appalachian basis access to Northeast premium markets. | Positive — structural demand growth reduces volatility risk; improves long-term pricing visibility |
| Apr 2026 | US Tariff Environment: Natural Gas Export Headwinds vs. LNG Demand Tailwinds | US tariffs complicate some LNG offtake agreements but structural LNG demand from Europe and Asia remains intact. EQT's domestic demand base partially insulates near-term. | Neutral — tariff noise but LNG structural story intact; domestic natural gas not directly affected |
Bottom Line: Q1 2026 is EQT's Best Quarterly Setup in Years
The combination of (1) January 2026's $7.72/MMBtu Henry Hub average, (2) positive differential for the first time as MVP delivers Appalachian gas into premium markets, and (3) production tracking at/above guidance creates the strongest quarterly earnings setup EQT has had in recent history. Consensus EPS of ~$1.80 (+52% vs. Q1 2025) may still be conservative if realized pricing captures the January spike at above-average efficiency. The FY2026 FCF guide of $3.5B could be materially raised.
Production, realized price, Henry Hub, and EBITDA data sourced from Daloopa. Guidance from EQT IR. Henry Hub Q1 2026 averages from EIA and market data. Preview generated April 14, 2026.