Built by Grok 4.6 HighReports Tuesday, October 20, 2026. Prepared Thursday, September 24, 2026. This is the unreported Q3 2026 print (quarter ending September 30), 26 days out. The date is a projected after-close slot. IR has not posted a scheduling release, and the clock time is not confirmed. The last two prints were after the close, with the call at 10:00 a.m. ET the next morning. Last reported quarter is Q2 2026, released after the close on July 21, 2026. EQT is a calendar-year company. The homepage calendar stores October 20 as 2026Q4. That label is one quarter ahead of the quarter being reported. This page is 2026Q3. No close Appalachian gas peer reports before this print.
EQT | Earnings Preview
| Q3 sales volume | 570–620 Bcfe · mid 595 calc. · −6.2% YoY | Q3 differential | ($0.75)–($0.65)/Mcf · mid ($0.70) · not tightened |
| Q3 unit operating cost | $1.09–$1.23/Mcfe · mid $1.16 · above recent actuals | FY2026 volume | 2,375–2,450 Bcfe · mid 2,412.5 · +1.3% vs FY2025 |
EQT reports Q3 on a projected Tuesday, October 20. The live outlook is still the July 21 release and the July 22 call. Nothing since has restated sales volume, differential, unit cost, capital, or turn-in-line. EQT does not guide revenue, EPS, or EBITDA. Those lines are a price residual. FMP, pulled September 24, is the only consensus on the page. Visible Alpha, Bloomberg, SharePoint, OneNote, Outlook, and internal Excel models were not available.
Growth trajectory is a volume acceleration the guide asks the second half to give back. Sales volume year-over-year went from +0.6% in Q4 2025 to +8.2% in Q1 2026 to +11.7% in Q2 2026. Q2 actual was 634.5 Bcfe versus 568.2 Bcfe. The Q3 midpoint of 595 Bcfe is −6.2% versus Q3 2025 634.4 Bcfe. That is a swing of about 1,530 bps versus Q3 2025's own +9.1% growth rate, and the high end of 620 Bcfe is still below last year's quarter. Full-year volume went from 2,228.2 Bcfe in FY2024 to 2,382.4 Bcfe in FY2025, +6.9%. The FY2026 midpoint of 2,412.5 Bcfe, on a 2,375–2,450 Bcfe range, is only +1.3%. The growth rate is decelerating by roughly 560 bps. First-half 2026 was 617.7 + 634.5 = 1,252.2 Bcfe, +9.9% versus 1,139.0 Bcfe in the first half of 2025. Holding the full-year midpoint leaves 1,160 Bcfe for the second half, about −6.7% versus the second half of 2025. The July raise banked the first half. It did not underwrite another quarter like Q2.
Price, not production, took the last print. Realized price was $2.65/Mcfe versus $2.81/Mcfe, −5.7%. NYMEX was $2.89 versus $3.43, −15.7%. Adjusted EBITDA still grew, but only to $1,067.0 million from $1,033.3 million, +3.3%, after +54.9% in Q1. Adjusted EPS fell to $0.39 from $0.45, −13.3%, and missed FMP by 5.4%. Sales of gas, oil, and NGLs were $1,610.0 million versus $1,700.5 million, −5.3%. GAAP operating revenue of $1,809.9 million versus $2,557.7 million is −29.2% and is not the economic trend. The year-ago quarter carried a much larger derivative gain. Free cash flow attributable to EQT was $329.7 million versus $239.6 million, +37.6%, which is why management could call an operating beat on the same day the street marked an EPS miss.
What consensus is underwriting. Use the FMP analyst-estimates average, not the earnings-calendar point. Q3 revenue $1,842.5 million (7 analysts) is −5.9% versus Q3 2025 operating revenue of $1,958.6 million. EPS $0.441 (14 analysts; low $0.362, high $0.597) is −15.2% versus $0.52. EBITDA $1,087.4 million is −9.3% versus adjusted EBITDA of $1,199.5 million. The earnings-calendar row is $0.45 and $1,831 million, inside those ranges. Volume midpoint and street revenue are the same decline. The extra drop from volume (−6%) to EBITDA (−9%) to EPS (−15%) is the street's price and mix assumption, not a company target. FY2026 consensus is revenue $9,280 million (+7.4% versus $8,644.2 million), EPS $4.07 (+33.5% versus $3.05), and EBITDA $6,317 million (+17.3% versus $5,385.7 million). FY2027 consensus is below FY2026 on all three: revenue −0.7%, EPS −5.2%, EBITDA −1.8%. There is no management FY2027 guide. That step-down is the opposite of the July line that late 2027 re-inflects.
What to watch on October 20
- Where volume lands inside 570–620 Bcfe. The low is 570 Bcfe and the high is 620 Bcfe. The 595 midpoint is calculated, not a Daloopa fundamental. Three straight actuals cleared the high end, and the one before that sat near the top of the range. A repeat of the latest +6.6% versus midpoint would put Q3 near 634 Bcfe, flat versus last year and through the high end. Management also said it will shut gas in when local prices are poor. A volume beat is a choice, not a mechanical outcome.
- Differential versus ($0.75) to ($0.65). The band has not moved since the Q2 guide, and the full-year band of ($0.55)–($0.35) has not moved since February. Late September is the miss path: Cove Point maintenance took Appalachian feedgas demand off, and Tetco M2 was reported below $1.50, the weakest regional hubs since November 2024. That outage is the last part of the quarter, not the whole quarter. It does not by itself break the band. It is the setup in which EQT has sold less.
- Unit cost and capex, where the sandbag has been widest. Q3 cash operating cost is guided at $1.09–$1.23, midpoint $1.16, against a Q2 actual of $1.03. Six of the last seven quarters were at or below the low end. Q4 2025 was the one that landed inside the range. Cash capex has been below the low end seven quarters running. Q2 cash capex was $650 million. The Q3 maintenance-plus-growth sum is $710–$820 million. The April call called Q2 the peak spend quarter. Against Q2 actual, the Q3 guide does not show that decline.
- Buybacks, not another speech. Net debt was $5,542.9 million at June 30, about $543 million above the $5 billion target. No shares were bought in the first half. The authorization runs to December 31, 2026. A pivot before the target is the item that would sit against S&P's positive-outlook assumption.
- Tariffs are not a Q3 driver. EQT does not guide a tariff line. The only tariff reference in the post-print record is a 2028 LNG offtake sourced from a buyer working through tariff issues. It does not change 570–620 Bcfe, the differential, or the $0.44 EPS bar.
The contrarian seam cuts both ways. Management keeps repeating a bullish outer-year case — compression ahead of the upside case, basis that "has to" tighten, in-basin power, a pipe they want to own — and the 2026 document does not contain it. The team has earned the right to be believed on operations: they left risk in the forecast, beat it, refused to raise in April, beat it again, then raised the floor more than the ceiling and left the next quarterly band where it was. The street's temptation is to capitalize the 2030 speeches into this quarter's EPS. Management's own differential and Q3 volume band say not to.
Classification: conservative on volume, cost, and capex versus a seven-quarter beat pattern. In line with a street that has already marked Q3 down about 6% on revenue. Not classifiable on revenue, EPS, or margin, because those are not guided. The aggressive line in the outlook is growth capital, which is guided up, not sandbagged down. The least conservative operating line is the differential, which is a copy of the Q2 band and only about 2 cents wider than last year's actual.
The full-year volume raise lifted the floor by 100 Bcfe and the ceiling by 75 Bcfe, from 2,275–2,375 to 2,375–2,450. The midpoint step is +87.5 Bcfe, in line with the "roughly 90 Bcfe" on the call. The band narrowed from 100 Bcfe to 75 Bcfe. That is confidence on volumes already in hand, not an open-ended raise. The Q3 band was not moved. It is the same 570–620 width they used for Q2, which they then beat through the top. Q3 maintenance capital of $510 million–$580 million is below the prior quarter's guide and matches the full-year maintenance cut of $25 million at the midpoint, from $2.07 billion–$2.21 billion to $2.04 billion–$2.19 billion. Strategic growth capital is unchanged at $0.58 billion–$0.64 billion. Equity-method contributions, the MVP / Southgate / Laurel Mountain line, stepped from $0.07 billion–$0.08 billion to $0.15 billion–$0.17 billion. That is the $85 million pull-forward. It is not capex, and it is not 2026 cash flow from the pipe. Adding the two piles together and calling capex up is wrong. Maintenance plus strategic growth, excluding equity contributions, is $2.62–$2.83 billion, midpoint $2.725 billion.
The FY floor is mostly already earned. First-half actual of 1,252.2 Bcfe means the 2,375 Bcfe low needs only 1,122.8 Bcfe in the second half. Q3 at the low end still leaves a Q4 that can sit well below Q4 2025 609.0 Bcfe and keep the year inside the range. A guide that cannot be missed on volume is not information. The information is the ceiling, and they only lifted that by 75 Bcfe. Pairing the Q3 midpoint with the FY midpoint leaves about 565 Bcfe for Q4, −7.2% versus that 609.0 Bcfe quarter. FMP's Q4 revenue of $2,228 million is −6.7% versus Q4 2025 operating revenue of $2,388.1 million. The street's Q4 decline lines up with a sub-600 Bcfe quarter. It does not line up with another high-end volume beat.
| Q3 2026 line | Q3 2025 actual | Q3 2026 guide | YoY at mid | Versus the street |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total sales volume | 634.4 Bcfe | 570–620 | −6.2% | No volume consensus. FMP revenue −5.9% matches the midpoint, not a beat through 620. |
| Total liquids | 6,459 Mbbl | 5,150–5,600 | −16.8% | Not a street line. Ethane mid −9.9% vs 2,026 Mbbl. Q2 ethane was above its guide. |
| Differential, incl. basis hedges | ($0.68) | ($0.75)–($0.65) | $0.02 wider | Not in FMP. The price swing. Unchanged from the Q2 guide. Least sandbagged line. |
| Cash operating cost | $1.00 | $1.09–$1.23 | +$0.16 | Not in FMP. Band sits above the last four actuals. Conservative. |
| Maintenance + growth capital | $627M cash capex | $710–$820M | +22% at mid | Sum of two guides, not its own series. High versus the underspend habit. Growth capital is the aggressive piece. |
| Revenue / EPS / EBITDA | $1,958.6M · $0.52 · $1,199.5M | Not guided | −5.9% / −15.2% / −9.3% | FMP averages $1,842.5M, $0.441, $1,087.4M. Those YoY rates are the street, not a company bar. |
Volume versus the range issued with the prior print. A beat means above the high end. Every in-range quarter was still above the midpoint. The beat versus midpoint went +4.3%, +3.8%, +4.3%, +3.2%, +5.9%, +5.6%, +6.6%. It got smaller into Q3 2025 and has widened for three straight quarters.
| Sales volume, Bcfe | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guide low | 555 | 525 | 520 | 590 | 550 | 560 | 570 | 570 |
| Guide high | 605 | 575 | 570 | 640 | 600 | 610 | 620 | 620 |
| Actual | 605.2 | 570.8 | 568.2 | 634.4 | 609.0 | 617.7 | 634.5 | Not reported |
| Vs midpoint | +4.3% | +3.8% | +4.3% | +3.2% | +5.9% | +5.6% | +6.6% | Open |
| Mark | In range, at high | In range | In range, near high | In range | Above high | Above high | Above high | — |
Q3 2026 has not printed. Columns in the history table are periods. Guide tables below are the current quarter, the next quarter, and the year after. Internal is n/a on every row. FMP does not publish volume, differential, unit cost, or capex consensus. Where the street has a number, it is revenue, EPS, or EBITDA, and EQT does not guide those.
Eight-quarter trajectory
Volume reaccelerated into Q2. Realized price and NYMEX went the other way. EBITDA growth cooled from +54.9% to +3.3% because price gave back what volume added. Net debt did almost all of its drop by Q1. Q2 only took off about $123 million. Do not read Q1 dollars as the run-rate. Winter is why Q2 looks small next to Q1. It is not the trajectory.
| Metric | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales volume (Bcfe) | 581.4 | 605.2 | 570.8 | 568.2 | 634.4 | 609.0 | 617.7 | 634.5 |
| Volume YoY | +11.2% | +7.3% | +6.9% | +12.0% | +9.1% | +0.6% | +8.2% | +11.7% |
| Realized price ($/Mcfe) | $2.38 | $3.01 | $3.77 | $2.81 | $2.76 | $3.44 | $5.08 | $2.65 |
| Realized price YoY | +4.4% | +9.5% | +17.1% | +20.6% | +16.0% | +14.3% | +34.7% | −5.7% |
| NYMEX ($/MMBtu) | $2.15 | $2.81 | $3.65 | $3.43 | $3.07 | $3.56 | $4.95 | $2.89 |
| Differential ($/Mcf) | ($0.65) | ($0.42) | ($0.09) | ($0.75) | ($0.68) | ($0.44) | $0.05 | ($0.67) |
| Adj. EBITDA ($M) | 824 | 1,400 | 1,644 | 1,033 | 1,200 | 1,509 | 2,547 | 1,067 |
| EBITDA YoY | — | — | — | — | +45.5% | +7.8% | +54.9% | +3.3% |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.12 | $0.69 | $1.18 | $0.45 | $0.52 | $0.90 | $2.33 | $0.39 |
| Adjusted EPS YoY | −60.0% | +43.8% | +43.9% | Swing to profit | +333% | +30.4% | +97.5% | −13.3% |
| FCF attrib. to EQT ($M) | — | — | 1,036 | 240 | 484 | 744 | 1,832 | 330 |
| Net debt ($M) | 13,705 | 9,122 | 8,111 | 7,760 | 7,982 | 7,690 | 5,666 | 5,543 |
Current quarter — Q3 2026
Third-party midstream revenue is guided at $130 million–$155 million, midpoint $142.5 million. Equity-method contributions are $60 million–$70 million. Net wells turned in line are 34–50, wider than the Q2 guide. A light turn-in-line quarter is not, on their own bridge, a volume miss. The compression program is the volume bridge, and Rice said it is still ahead of the upside case and not fully in the model.
| Metric | Guide low | Guide high | Mid | Consensus | Internal | Vs Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales volume (Bcfe) | 570 | 620 | 595 | n/a | n/a | −6.2% vs 634.4. High end still −2.3%. |
| Ethane (Mbbl) | 1,750 | 1,900 | 1,825 | n/a | n/a | −9.9%. Q2 actual 2,322 Mbbl was above its guide. |
| Liquids ex-ethane (Mbbl) | 3,400 | 3,700 | 3,550 | n/a | n/a | −9.9% vs NGLs ex-ethane 3,942 Mbbl. Closer to in line. |
| Total liquids (Mbbl) | 5,150 | 5,600 | 5,375 | n/a | n/a | −16.8% vs 6,459. |
| Differential ($/Mcf) | (0.75) | (0.65) | (0.70) | n/a | n/a | $0.02 wider than ($0.68). 10 cents tighter than last year's guide mid. |
| Unit operating cost ($/Mcfe) | $1.09 | $1.23 | $1.16 | n/a | n/a | +$0.16 vs $1.00. Above the FY band mid of $1.125. |
| Operating revenue | Not guided | Not guided | Not guided | $1,842.5M | n/a | −5.9% vs $1,958.6M. Range $1,749–$1,894M. |
| EBITDA | Not guided | Not guided | Not guided | $1,087.4M | n/a | −9.3% vs $1,199.5M. Implied margin ~59%, about −220 bps, directional only. |
| EPS | Not guided | Not guided | Not guided | $0.441 | n/a | −15.2% vs $0.52. Calendar point $0.45. |
| Maintenance capital | $510M | $580M | $545M | n/a | n/a | −5.2% vs last year's maintenance-guide mid. |
| Growth capital | $200M | $240M | $220M | n/a | n/a | About +96% vs last year's growth-guide mid. The aggressive line. |
FQ+1 — Q4 2026
EQT guides only the next quarter. Q4 has no explicit range. Anything printed for Q4 on October 20 will be new. The 565 Bcfe figure is arithmetic: FY midpoint 2,412.5 minus first-half actual 1,252.2 minus the Q3 midpoint of 595. It is not a range the company issued. The low and high do not subtract cleanly, so they are not guided.
| Q4 2026 | Guide low | Guide high | Mid / implied | FMP consensus | Internal | Vs Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales volume (Bcfe) | Not guided | Not guided | 565 implied only | n/a | n/a | −7.2% vs 609.0 Bcfe |
| Revenue | Not guided | Not guided | Not guided | $2,228M | n/a | −6.7% vs $2,388.1M |
| EBITDA | Not guided | Not guided | Not guided | $1,430M | n/a | −5.2% vs $1,509.0M |
| EPS | Not guided | Not guided | Not guided | $0.867 | n/a | −3.7% vs $0.90 |
Consensus expects Q3 to be the soft quarter and Q4 to rebound, EBITDA $1,087 million then $1,430 million. Quarterly and annual FMP EBITDA do not foot. First-half adjusted EBITDA of $2,547.0 million + $1,067.0 million, plus the Q3 and Q4 FMP EBITDA figures, sits about $186 million (2.9%) below the FY2026 EBITDA average. Do not treat them as one model. Revenue does foot, within about $20 million.
FY2026 guide still in force — FY2027 is not guided
FY2027 is not guided on volume, differential, cost, capex, revenue, EPS, or EBITDA. The block that matters on this print is the FY2026 guide, raised on volume and trimmed on maintenance capital on July 21, and not updated since. FY differential is stuck. FY unit cost was tightened by a penny or two, to $1.05–$1.20. The Q3 cost band sits above that full-year band, so the year only lands if Q3 comes in toward the low end or Q4 is cheaper.
| Metric | Guide low | Guide high | Mid | FMP consensus | Internal | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 revenue | Not guided | Not guided | Not guided | $9,212M | n/a | −0.7% vs FY2026 consensus. Street is not underwriting a higher year. |
| FY2027 EPS | Not guided | Not guided | Not guided | $3.86 | n/a | −5.2% vs FY2026 $4.07. Opposite of the late-2027 re-inflection speech. |
| FY2027 EBITDA | Not guided | Not guided | Not guided | $6,205M | n/a | −1.8% vs FY2026 consensus. |
| FY2026 sales volume (Bcfe) | 2,375 | 2,450 | 2,412.5 | n/a | n/a | +1.3% vs FY2025 2,382.4. Low −0.3%. High +2.8%. Flat year. |
| FY2026 differential ($/Mcf) | (0.55) | (0.35) | (0.45) | n/a | n/a | Unchanged since February. Q3 is the wider shoulder inside it. |
| FY2026 unit cost ($/Mcfe) | $1.05 | $1.20 | $1.125 | n/a | n/a | Penny trim. Not a new cost thesis. Q3 band sits above it. |
| FY2026 revenue / EPS / EBITDA | Not guided | Not guided | Not guided | $9,280M · $4.07 · $6,317M | n/a | +7.4% / +33.5% / +17.3% vs FY2025. Most of the EBITDA is the winter already reported. |
| FY2026 maintenance capital | $2.04B | $2.19B | $2.115B | n/a | n/a | $25 million midpoint cut vs the prior guide. The cut. |
| FY2026 equity contributions | $0.15B | $0.17B | $0.16B | n/a | n/a | +$85 million vs the prior mid. Southgate pull-forward. Not 2026 flowing cash. |
Tone into the print is the best it has been in this four-quarter stretch, and it is still a confirmation tape on volumes rather than a new-raise tape. July already banked two above-guidance production quarters and then refused to lift the next quarterly band. Outside the call, Rice has kept selling the same outer-year case — resource depth, data-center load, permitting as the constraint — without a revised Bcfe, differential, or dollar of capital.
The direction across the calls is one-way, from "keep risk in the forecast" to "the beats are surprising us and buybacks are next." What has not changed is the refusal to put the outer-year demand story into this year's differential or this year's growth.
- Q4 2025 (February 18). Platform year. Deleveraging still first. Initial FY2026 volume 2,275–2,375 Bcfe, with risk left in the forecast on purpose. Upstream growth was a 2027 conversation. Buybacks were closer than people thought, not the base case.
- Q1 2026 (April 22). Record quarter, shoulder-season caution. More than $1.8 billion of quarterly free cash flow, largely unhedged into the spike. They did not raise the full-year volume range after the beat. They put 10–15 Bcf of tactical curtailments into the Q2 guide and called Q2 the peak capital quarter. Knop's close was that the transformation of EQT was complete. The LNG-glut case was "effectively gone." The 10 Bcf/d in-basin power case was "looking more like the new base case."
- Q2 2026 (July 22). Clearest positive shift. Raised volume about 90 Bcfe and cut consolidated capex $25 million in the same sentence. Compression ahead of the upside case. Knop said original expectations had been blown away, the hydraulic models were still being recalibrated, and the beats were surprising them too. He also said he was seeing Permian growth and a super El Niño, and that hedges had been aimed at next summer so a down cycle would not stop buybacks. He called it potentially a very short-term soft spot, with the structural inflection pushed to late 2027. Rice went the other way on LNG: the pre-conflict 2028–2030 glut view was gone. On Appalachian demand he stayed measured. Nearly 20 Bcf/d unrisked across more than 45 projects, risked internally to high-single-digit Bcf/d. EQT will not grow one-for-one into that wedge, because tighter basis lifts the existing book. The Q3 volume band was left at 570–620.
- After July 22. Same chapter, no new numbers. Wood Mackenzie on August 19 and a POLITICO Energy interview on August 31 were the outer-year message again. A September 23 essay was permitting policy, not a guide. No 8-K, no conference deck with a revised range, no pre-announcement.
The gap between what they repeat and what the 2026 guide contains is the setup. Nearly 20 Bcf/d of projects versus a full-year volume midpoint that is only +1.3% and a Q3 midpoint that is −6.2%. "Basis has to tighten" versus a differential range that has not moved since February. "$300 million a year" from Southeast utility contracts, and a second power-linked deal, versus zero of that in 2026 free cash flow. A cost structure that "falls in time" versus a $0.01–$0.02 per Mcfe trim and a $25 million capital cut.
Q1 is the template. They beat, they described the mechanism, and they did not mark the full-year range up until the next quarter had delivered the same surprise again. July is that second step. It is not a license to roll Q2's 634.5 Bcfe exit rate into Q3. The print gets harder if the market treats that exit rate, an 8% type-curve beat, or the CPV and LNG speeches as the Q3 run-rate. Those are not what 570–620 Bcfe and ($0.75)–($0.65) assume.
What would threaten the document is a volume print under 570 Bcfe, a differential wider than ($0.75), or unit costs above $1.23. A differential inside the band with Henry Hub still near $2.90 does not threaten the guide and can still produce another down year on adjusted EPS. That is what Q2 just did. September NYMEX settled at $2.907, in the same neighborhood as the $2.89 Q2 average that produced a $2.65 realization. EIA's August Short-Term Energy Outlook cut the Q3 Henry Hub forecast to $2.87, $0.50 below the July STEO. The U.S. storage surplus and the tight global market can sit next to each other. That is exactly the setup in which EQT can beat volume and miss the earnings mood again.
Hedges are aimed at summer 2027, not at this quarter. The Q3 2026 hedge book disclosed with Q2 results is 125 MMDth. Summer 2027 hedges were raised from 39 MMDth as of the Q1 disclosure to 140 MMDth as of Q2. Q3 2026 realizations are still a cash-market outcome inside the differential band, not a hedged outcome they quantified on the call. No guidance has been withdrawn. Rice and Knop are still the CEO and CFO. The October 20 date is still a calendar projection.
The street's Q3 model is a seasonal air pocket, not a demand-stacking quarter. Revenue about −6%, EBITDA about −9%, EPS about −15%. That lines up with the volume and differential guide. The catalysts management is selling — in-basin power, the POWER pipe, Southgate, and a pivot from debt paydown to buybacks — do not land in Q3 volumes or in FY2027 consensus. The unmodeled upside, if it exists, is 2028–2031 contract and pipe value, not a beat of the $0.44 EPS print.
| Catalyst | What it does to Q3 | What consensus believes | Status and source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 volume vs 570–620 Bcfe | This is the number that decides an operating beat. Midpoint 595 is −6.2% YoY and would reverse the volume reacceleration. | No volume consensus. Revenue −5.9% is consistent with the midpoint if price is close to last year's $2.76, not with another print above 620. | Rice restated 6.5–6.7 Bcfe/d on Sep 22. Not a new raise. Daloopa guide ids above. Reuters, Sep 22. |
| Summer price and basis | Guide ($0.75)–($0.65). Mid ($0.70) is about 2 cents wider than Q3 2025 actual ($0.68). Wider than ($0.75) is the miss. | EIA September STEO: Henry Hub $3.43 in 2026 and $3.28 in 2027. The lower FY2027 EPS is a hub call, not a tighter-basis call. | Hedges are for next summer, not this quarter. Q3 book 125 MMDth. EIA STEO, Sep 9. NGI on Cove Point and Tetco M2, Sep 21. |
| Liquids and ethane step-down | Ethane mid about −10% YoY. Total liquids mid about −17%. The guide takes back the Q2 ethane beat. | Inside the revenue consensus, not its own line. A liquids beat helps revenue without changing the gas-basis narrative. | Still the July ranges. No September update. EQT quarterly outlook, Jul 21. |
| In-basin power (CPV Shay) | Not a Q3 volume or EBITDA item. 325 MMcf/d, 10 years, PJM-power-linked, in service early 2031. Hypothetical full year about $100 million of free cash flow. No EQT capital. | FY2027 EPS is 5% below FY2026. Nothing in the published consensus marks a 2031 contract. Management said the street still was not crediting the older Southeast deals either. | Named and sized Aug 17 after a Jul 21 sketch. No second large power SPA found through Sep 24. WV News, EPSA. Q2 call. |
| POWER pipeline | Zero Q3 earnings impact. Open season is non-binding and closes Oct 26, six days after the print. Color, not a signed result. | No project probability in FMP. A 2030 in-service pipe cannot move FY2026 or FY2027 estimates. | New since the July call. Up to 1.0 Bcf/d, about 50 miles, Greene County to Clarington, targeted Jan 30, 2030. Capex undisclosed. NGI Sep 2. Reuters Sep 22. |
| MVP Southgate | Cash, not earnings. Q3 equity contributions $60 million–$70 million. Higher guided capex is why a free-cash-flow beat is a harder ask than an EBITDA beat. | No separate Southgate line in FMP. No free-cash-flow consensus was available. | Use the Jul 22 10-Q for in-service: mid-2028, 0.55 Bcf/d. Construction pulled into 2026 is not the same as gas flowing in late 2026. Rice said 2026 does not see the benefit. |
| $5 billion net debt, then buybacks | Unlikely to clear $5 billion from operations on this print. Net debt $5,542.9 million. Q3 capex is guided above last year. Dividend stayed at $0.165. | No buyback or year-end net-debt line in FMP. A buyback that has not started cannot be what FY2027 estimates are discounting. | 10-Q: no common-stock repurchases in Q2. About $1.4 billion of the authorization was unused at Jun 30. Authorization expires Dec 31, 2026. No repurchase disclosure found after the print. |
| LNG book and Ignitis | Immaterial to Q3 and small even in 2027. One cargo a year, about 3 Bcf, from 2027. The July 0.5 mtpa offtake starts in 2028 and was described as about $45 million of 2028 free cash flow. | FY2027 EPS down 5% says the street is not adding LNG volume to 2027. | Ignitis signed about Sep 21. Henry Hub plus TTF. First long-term U.S. supply contract for that buyer. Not 2026 cash flow. |
| Shut-in flexibility | Already inside the Q3 volume guide. Rice put it at a little over $200 million a year. The same tool supports realization in a weak tape and is why 595 Bcfe is plausible after a 634 Bcfe Q2. | Revenue and EBITDA consensus already assume the guided volume dip. The $200 million figure is a run-rate comment, not a Q3 revenue add. | Reuters, Sep 22. Same order of magnitude as the "more than $200 million" of 2025 marketing uplift on the February call. Not a guidance change. |
What to listen for, in order: did volumes clear 620 Bcfe again, or did curtailments land the quarter near 595. Did the differential stay inside ($0.75)–($0.65). Any Q3 share count under the authorization. Whether a second power SPA was signed. POWER open-season tone only. Southgate construction progress, not a new cash range. Anything that would force FY2027 estimates up. A Lithuanian cargo and a 2030 pipe will not. A volume-guide raise or a 2027 hedge-and-basis update might.
From the day after the Q2 call through September 24. The Q2 release, the 10-Q, the call, and sell-side price-target changes are not in this table. No IR release after July 21. The newsroom's latest item is still the Q2 results. No Q3 scheduling release, no guide update, no buyback tally, and no new 8-K turned up. The absence is the news.
| Date | Headline | Source | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 | S&P revises the outlook to positive from stable and affirms BBB−. | S&P action, as reported by Investing.com the same day and Marcellus Drilling News on Aug 14. Primary S&P text was not opened. The 10-Q still showed stable as of Jul 14. | Credit trajectory, not a Q3 volume item. The write-up says S&P cited debt paydown since the Equitrans close and places the $5 billion net-debt target during 2027, with free cash flow still going to debt. That is a condition, not a promise. A buyback pivot before the target is what would put the upgrade path at risk. Fitch and Moody's were not updated in this window. Treat the FFO percentages as secondary until the S&P text is opened. |
| Aug 14 | CEO Toby Rice sells 175,328 shares under a 10b5-1 plan adopted Mar 6. | SEC Form 144 (notice Aug 14) and Form 4 (transactions Aug 14; filing XML dated Aug 18). | Not a control sale and not a new plan. Weighted average $55.03. About 7.5% of his pre-sale direct stake and about 0.03% of shares on the Form 144. The notice represents no undisclosed material adverse information. No CEO or CFO change. Scheduled diversification, not a Q3 information signal, and not evidence the guide is about to be cut. |
| Aug 17 | CPV and EQT sign the Shay Energy Center gas sale. 2,100 MW, Doddridge County. Online 2031. | WV News, Aug 17. EPSA, Aug 18. The Jul 21 release had already described a 10-year deal at 325,000 Dth/d. | Same contract, more terms. About 0.33 Bcf/d, roughly 5% of a 2,412.5 Bcfe year, starting around 2031. Power netback, not a basin gas index. EQT is the supplier, not the plant owner. No EQT capex disclosed. It does not move 570–620 Bcfe. |
| Aug 18 | DEP finds the Richter wastewater cleanup still out of compliance. A separate Washington County site draws erosion violations on Aug 21. | Pennsylvania DEP inspection reports, as written up by PA Environment Digest. Volumes were not disclosed. Not an EQT 8-K. | The only clear negative in the window, and it is unquantified. Equitrans Water SVC reported a produced-water release on Jun 17 at the Richter impoundment. The Jun 30 order was still being missed on the Aug 18 inspection. No penalty dollar, no production shut-in, no change to the sales guide. Compliance overhang on the water business, and the item most likely to draw a question. It is not a volume driver unless a later order curtails operations. Nothing like that has been reported. |
| Aug 26 | Non-binding open season for the POWER Pipeline. Up to 1.0 Bcf/d. In service targeted Jan 30, 2030. | EQT open-season notice via Marcellus Drilling News. NGI, Sep 2. Reuters, Sep 22. No company press release. | The new infrastructure item. Open season runs through Oct 26, so the Q3 release will not contain a binding outcome. Rice told Reuters the line could be larger than 1.0 Bcf/d if demand shows up. Capex, returns, and shippers are undisclosed. An option, not a project in the guide. It cannot add 2026 volume. |
| Sep 21 | Ignitis signs a 10-year LNG SPA. One cargo a year, 2027–2036, priced off Henry Hub and TTF. | Ignitis announcement. Lithuania Ministry of Energy. Kirkland and Ellis, Sep 22. NGI and Reuters, Sep 22. | Real contract, immaterial volume. One cargo is on the order of 3 Bcf, about half a day of the guided 2026 sales rate, once a year, starting in the second half of 2027. Nothing hits Q3 or FY2026. The useful fact is the price formula and the new buyer, not a 2026 cash-flow diversification. The "hundreds of millions of euros" line is the Lithuanian energy minister's, not an EQT disclosure. |
| Sep 22 | Rice tells Reuters the shut-in program is worth a little over $200 million a year. 2026 is still more volume on less spending. | Reuters, Scott DiSavino, Sep 22. | The only post-print management quantification that can touch this quarter's realized price. He did not say the $200 million is incremental to the July guide, and he did not revise 570–620 Bcfe. If Q3 prices stayed soft, the same program pushes volumes toward the low end and supports realization. He did not resolve that tension. The rest restates July: maintenance capex $2.04–$2.19 billion and sales of 6.5–6.7 Bcfe/d, which is the 2,375–2,450 Bcfe guide. His +20 Bcf/d U.S. demand view through 2040 is a macro opinion, not guidance. |
Read-through. The commercial news is 2027–2031. Shay, POWER, and Ignitis point the same direction and none of them cash in 2026. Stacked on the July LNG offtake and on Rice's roughly 6 mtpa book for 2030–31, management is converting Appalachian molecules into contracted power and export demand. Trajectory of that effort is up. Trajectory of 2026 reported volumes is not what these contracts change. Balance sheet: S&P moved, and the company did not announce a buyback. The dividend stayed at $0.165. The red flag that is real is operational compliance at Richter and Jaybird, not the insider sale. Management is more bullish on in-basin power demand than the newsflow has proven. Expand Energy told NGI on September 23 that U.S. power-demand growth may show up slower than many expect because of data-center resistance, and that LNG is the nearer driver. EQT has not answered that. POWER's open season, which ends October 26, is the first hard test of whether the demand EQT is describing will sign a pipe.
Mixed on revenue. A consistent adjusted-EPS beater whose beat is shrinking. Over the 12 reported quarters from Q3 2023 through Q2 2026, EQT beat FMP adjusted-EPS consensus 10 times, met it once, and missed once (83.3%). The last four quarters are 3 beats and the first miss of the window, Q2 2026 at −5.4%. Operating revenue excluding derivative gains and losses beat in 7 of 12 (58.3%) and in 4 of the last 4, but the latest revenue beat is +0.1%. Beat percent on EPS stepped down from +43.8% in Q3 2025 to a miss. Q3 2026 has not printed.
The heatmap uses one revenue definition for all 12 quarters: sales of gas, oil, and NGLs plus other revenue, which is GAAP operating revenue excluding the derivative gain or loss. That series matches FMP's revenue actual from Q3 2023 through Q1 2025 and again in Q3 2025. In Q2 2025, Q4 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026, FMP's own actual field switches to total GAAP operating revenue and folds the derivative mark back in. Those four FMP-published revenue surprises are not used here. Q2 2026's GAAP revenue "beat" of +2.6% is the $44.6 million derivative gain. Adjusted EPS equals FMP's EPS actual in all 12 quarters. A beat is any positive surprise. Q4 2023 EPS was a dead zero and is an in-line, not a beat.
| Surprise vs FMP | Q3 23 | Q4 23 | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev. ex-derivatives | −10.9% | −12.7% | −17.3% | −16.1% | −10.2% | +1.9% | +11.9% | +4.3% | +0.7% | +6.8% | +12.5% | +0.1% |
| Adjusted EPS | +350% | 0.0% | +26.9% | +58.8% | +58.4% | +29.7% | +14.6% | +7.3% | +43.8% | +18.4% | +12.0% | −5.4% |
Green is a beat (#1E8449). Red is a miss (#C0392B). Yellow is in-line (#D4AC0D). Magnitude is the number in the cell, not a second shade. Read left to right. Revenue is red through Q3 2024, turns green in Q4 2024, and stays green. The dark story is the size, not the color: +0.7% and +0.1% are barely beats. EPS is green or yellow until the last column, the first red EPS cell in the window. The two cells that distort a casual average are Q3 2023 EPS, a profit versus a −$0.12 estimate, and Q1 2024 revenue, the widest miss at −17.3%.
Revenue surprise magnitude improved, then stalled. The four-quarter average went from −14.2% to +2.0% to +5.0%. That is a regime change: five straight misses of 10% or more, then no miss. Inside the last four the path is not a straight line up. Q1 2026 at +12.5% is the winter-price quarter, realized price $5.08. Q2 gave it back. Ex-derivative revenue went from +49.5% year over year in Q1 to −3.9% in Q2. Volume did not roll over. Price did.
Adjusted-EPS surprise magnitude is deteriorating. From Q3 2025 the percent is +43.8%, +18.4%, +12.0%, −5.4%. The last print is the first miss in 12 quarters, and it is small, about −$0.022 versus a $0.412 estimate. Dollar beats are noisy because winter quarters carry a much higher EPS base, $2.33 versus $0.39, so the percent is the cleaner read once estimates are positive. A qualified EBITDA check lines up with the same fade. Adjusted EBITDA versus FMP EBITDA consensus, which is not a confirmed like-for-like: five of six quarters from Q1 2025 were beats, and Q2 2026 was the smallest, +1.2% on $1,067.0 million versus $1,054.5 million. Q2 was a slight EBITDA beat and an EPS miss. The drop-through failed. This note does not rebuild that bridge.
EQT does not walk adjusted EPS versus the street on these calls. The variance they explain is versus their own guidance: volume, differential, cash costs, capital, and, when they mention the street at all, free cash flow. On the Q2 call Knop said the company exceeded expectations across virtually every financial metric and generated $330 million of free cash flow at a $2.89 NYMEX, then raised the volume guide. The street's adjusted-EPS print was still a miss. Management's beat in Q2 was versus their guide and versus a cost curve. It was not a beat of FMP adjusted EPS. That is the pattern to carry in. Beating 570–620 Bcfe is not the same thing as beating $0.441.
The base case from the track record is still an EPS beat, because 10 of 12 quarters were beats and the only miss was 5%. The base case from the trajectory is a small one, or another miss, if realized prices look like Q2 rather than Q1. The bar this quarter, $0.441, is already most of the way to last year's $0.52. Repeating the year-ago +43.8% surprise would mean a much larger dollar beat than EQT has delivered outside the winter quarter. The closer analog is Q2.
Data sourced from Daloopa.