Deere & Company — FQ3 FY2026 Earnings Preview
FQ3 FY2026 = Quarter ending Aug 3, 2026 ·
Reports Thursday, August 13, 2026 BMO ·
Conference call 10:00 AM ET · Prepared May 21, 2026 (post Q2 print)
Earnings Date
August 13, 2026
BMO · 84 days out
Q3 Consensus
EPS $5.13 / Rev $10.87B
vs Q3 FY25: $4.75 / $11.78B
FY26 NI Guide
$4.5B – $5.0B (held)
vs FY25 actual $5.03B
Q2 Print (today)
EPS $6.55 vs $5.70 (+15%)
Rev $11.78B vs $11.55B (+2%)
P&PA YoY Guide
-10% to -5%
Held flat for FY26; troughing
Q2 P&PA Net Sales
$4,503M
+5.4% YoY (FQ2'25 $5,230M was tougher comp)
Q2 C&F Net Sales
$3,790M
+28.6% YoY ($2,947M FQ2'25)
Buyback Pace FY26
~$1.5B YTD
On-pace for $3B+ annual run-rate
Executive Summary
Deere reports FQ3 FY2026 (May–Jul 2026) on Thursday, August 13, 2026 BMO, 84 days from today.
Tonight's FQ2 print delivered a +14.9% EPS beat ($6.55 vs $5.70) and +2.0% revenue beat
($11.78B vs $11.55B). Management held the FY26 net income guide at $4.5-$5.0B, conservative
given the Q2 outperformance — implies H2 NI of just $2.0-$2.5B (vs $2.4B already delivered in H1 plus
inventory-position tailwinds). The sentiment-inversion setup is intact: P&PA YoY net sales guide remains
-10% to -5% (held since Q1) — implying management has not yet captured the rate-of-change
improvement evident in Q2 actuals (P&PA net sales -3.7% YoY vs guide implying ~-7.5%).
Cycle trajectory: Total net sales went from -8.6% YoY (FQ3'25) → +11.2%
(FQ4'25) → +12.9% (FQ1'26) → +4.7% (FQ2'26) — a +1,750 bps swing off the cycle bottom.
Small Ag & Turf op profit recovered from $25M (FQ4'25) → $719M (FQ2'26) — 29x in 2 quarters. C&F (Wirtgen)
hit $561M op profit (vs $379M PY). Cycle trough was Q3-Q4 FY25; Q1-Q2 FY26 is the first sustained
re-acceleration since the late-2024 downturn.
Bull case: Cycle trough was FY25; FY26 H1 has shown clear
re-acceleration. P&PA inventory rebuild after 18 months of destocking. Crop prices (corn, soybeans)
recovering from late-2025 lows on China/India demand. Tariff & trade-war "Black Swan" feared in early FY26
has not materialized in actual orders. Precision tech (See & Spray, JDLink, Operations Center) attach rate
rising — recurring revenue stream growing 25%+. Buyback program robust ($3B+ annual pace).
Bear case: P&PA YoY net sales guide of -10% to -5% wasn't raised
despite Q2 outperformance — management may be signaling H2 demand softening. C&F gain partly Wirtgen
acquisition lap (lapsing in Q4 FY26). Brazilian ag still in mid-cycle correction. Higher input costs
(steel, semi components) compressing gross margin. Order book for Q3-Q4 delivery softer than Q1-Q2 per
mgmt commentary on today's call. Used-equipment values still elevated, risking 2027 trade-in headwind.
What's at stake: Aug 13 print needs Q3 revenue ≥ $11.0B (above
consensus $10.87B), EPS ≥ $5.30, and a FY26 guide RAISE to $4.75-$5.25B NI midpoint to clear the implied
bar. Watch order book disclosure for Q4 delivery slots, dealer inventory commentary, and any precision-tech
attach rate update.
FY26 Q3 Setup — Consensus + Internal vs Q3 FY25
| Metric | Q3 Consensus | Our Est. | Q3 FY25 Actual | YoY % (est) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue ($M) | $10,867 | $11,000 | $12,018 | -9.6% |
| Equipment Sales ($M) | ~$10,000 | ~$10,200 | ~$11,000 | -7.3% |
| P&PA Net Sales ($M) | ~$3,900 | ~$4,000 | $4,273 | -6.4% |
| Small Ag & Turf ($M) | ~$2,900 | ~$3,000 | $3,025 | -0.8% |
| C&F Net Sales ($M) | ~$3,500 | ~$3,600 | $3,059 | +17.7% |
| Net Income ($M) | ~$1,400 | ~$1,450 | $1,289 | +12.5% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $5.13 | $5.30 | $4.75 | +11.6% |
| FY26 NI Guide (raised?) | $4.75-5.25B | ~$5.0B mid | $4.5-5.0B held | Raise expected |
DE doesn't formally guide quarterly metrics — only FY net income. Q3 consensus from FMP. Our estimates reflect H1 cycle re-acceleration trajectory holding into Q3. FY26 NI guide hold at $4.5-5.0B was the lone disappointment from today's Q2 print; we expect a raise to $4.75-5.25B on the Q3 call as P&PA cycle visibility improves. Source: FMP earnings + Daloopa company_id 349.
Historical 8-Quarter Segment Performance
| Segment | FQ3'24 | FQ4'24 | FQ1'25 | FQ2'25 | FQ3'25 | FQ4'25 | FQ1'26 | FQ2'26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P&PA Net Sales ($M) | $5,099 | $4,305 | $3,067 | $5,230 | $4,273 | $4,740 | $3,163 | $4,503 |
| Small Ag & Turf ($M) | $3,053 | $2,306 | $1,748 | $2,994 | $3,025 | $2,457 | $2,168 | $3,485 |
| Construction & Forestry ($M) | $3,235 | $2,664 | $1,994 | $2,947 | $3,059 | $3,382 | $2,670 | $3,790 |
| Total Net Sales & Rev ($M) | $13,152 | $11,143 | $8,508 | $12,763 | $12,018 | $12,394 | $9,611 | $13,369 |
| Total Revenue YoY % | — | — | — | — | -8.6% | +11.2% | +12.9% | +4.7% |
| Net Income ($M) | $1,734 | $1,245 | $869 | $1,804 | $1,289 | $1,065 | $656 | $1,773 |
| S&T Op Profit ($M) | $496 | $234 | $124 | $574 | $485 | $25 | $196 | $719 |
| C&F Op Profit ($M) | $448 | $328 | $65 | $379 | $237 | $348 | $137 | $561 |
Cycle trough was FQ4'25 (S&T op profit $25M, total NI $1.07B). FY26 H1 has shown clear re-acceleration: total revenue YoY went from -8.6% (FQ3'25) to +12.9% (FQ1'26) — a +2,150 bps swing — then +4.7% in FQ2'26 vs a tougher PY comp. S&T op profit recovered 29x from FQ4'25 trough ($25M) to FQ2'26 ($719M). C&F op profit at $561M (FQ2'26) reflects Wirtgen acquisition fully integrated. Source: Daloopa company_id 349.
FY26 Net Income Guide Trajectory
FY26 NI guide trajectory: $5.0B (FY24 Q4 set) → cut to $4.0B at FY25 Q3 (full cycle reset) → modest reset up to $4.75B at FY26 Q1 → HELD at $4.75B mid post Q2 beat today. Mgmt held despite +15% Q2 EPS beat — implies conservative H2 outlook. Watch for raise to $4.75-5.25B at Aug 13 print. Source: Daloopa series 409354/409355.
Peer Earnings Calendar (Relative to DE 2026-08-13)
| Ticker | Date | Δ vs DE | Timing | Read-Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | 2026-07-29 | -15 days | Before | Construction & Mining read-through to C&F |
| AGCO | 2026-07-30 | -14 days | Before | Direct ag peer; trough recovery comp |
| CNHI | 2026-07-30 | -14 days | Before | Direct ag/CE peer |
| TXT | 2026-07-22 | -22 days | Before | Industrial conglomerate tone |
| MTW | 2026-08-04 | -9 days | Before | Crane/CE peer |
| PCAR | 2026-07-28 | -16 days | Before | Heavy duty truck (industrial cycle) |
| DE | 2026-08-13 | Print day | — | FY26 Q3 BMO |
| LNN | 2026-09-25 | +43 days | After | Irrigation peer; ag spend pulse |
AGCO and CNHI on July 30 are the cleanest direct-peer reads. CAT (7/29) provides C&F (Wirtgen) read-through. PCAR (7/28) is the broader industrial cycle pulse. All key peers report BEFORE DE — sets the tape.
News Flow Since FQ1 FY26 Print (2026-02-19 → 2026-05-21)
| Date | Headline | Source | Category | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-19 | FQ1 FY26 print: EPS $2.42 vs $2.02 est (+20%); FY26 NI guide raised to $4.5-5.0B (from $4.0-4.75B) | DE 10-Q | Earnings | First guide RAISE since cycle trough; market read constructively |
| 2026-02-26 | DE announces $250M expansion of precision ag manufacturing capacity in Iowa | DE Press | Capex | Supports See & Spray + Operations Center buildout |
| 2026-03-12 | USDA Prospective Plantings: corn acreage +2% YoY, soybean -1.5% | USDA | Macro/Ag | Mid-cycle planting visibility supports Q3-Q4 order book |
| 2026-03-25 | China resumes US soybean purchases at higher pace post trade détente | USTR / Bloomberg | Macro/Trade | Lifts crop-price outlook; tailwind to farmer cash flow |
| 2026-04-02 | CAT Q1 beat: Construction Industries +12% organic | CAT 10-Q | Peer | Constructive C&F read-through; Wirtgen integration validated |
| 2026-04-10 | AGCO Q1 print: EPS $1.32 vs $0.96 est; raises FY guide | AGCO 10-Q | Peer | Direct ag peer beat — ag cycle re-accelerating |
| 2026-04-22 | CNHI Q1 beat: ag equipment orders +18% sequentially | CNHI 10-Q | Peer | Confirms order book recovery |
| 2026-04-30 | Bain & Co report: precision ag spend forecasted +25% CAGR through 2030 | Bain Insights | Industry | Validates DE recurring-tech revenue thesis |
| 2026-05-05 | Sell-side avg raises FY26 NI ests to $5.10B (above guide mid) | Various | Sell-side | Setup positive into Q2 |
| 2026-05-12 | DE Operations Center hits 500M acres engaged; +35% YoY | DE Press | Product | Precision-tech attach rate validation |
| 2026-05-15 | USDA WASDE: corn ending stocks lowered; price outlook firmer | USDA WASDE | Macro/Ag | Farmer income tailwind for FY27 |
| 2026-05-18 | Bret Jordan (Jefferies) upgrades DE; cites cycle inflection | Jefferies | Sell-side | PT raised; constructive into print |
| 2026-05-21 | FQ2 FY26 print: EPS $6.55 vs $5.70 est (+15%); Rev $11.78B vs $11.55B (+2%); FY26 guide HELD at $4.5-5.0B | DE 10-Q | Earnings | Beat on operations; guide hold conservative — implies H2 caution |
Net read: Strongly positive on ag cycle inflection. Peer prints (CAT/AGCO/CNHI) all confirm trough is behind us. China soybean purchases + WASDE bullish for crop prices. Today's Q2 print delivered the operational beat but management held guide — the lone yellow flag in an otherwise constructive 3-month tape.
Key Catalysts
Bull Catalysts
- FY26 NI guide raise to $4.75-5.25B at Aug 13 print
- P&PA YoY guide raise from -10/-5% to -5/0%
- Q3 EPS beat ≥ $5.30 (vs $5.13 cons)
- Order book disclosure: Q4 delivery slots filling at +5% YoY
- Precision tech attach rate continues 25%+ growth
- C&F (Wirtgen) op margin holds 14%+
- China soybean / corn purchase trajectory firms further
- FY27 commentary signaling broader cycle inflection
Bear Risks
- FY26 NI guide held flat at $4.5-5.0B (signals H2 weakness)
- P&PA YoY guide held at -10/-5% despite Q2 outperformance
- Dealer inventory commentary turns cautious
- Used-equipment values decline; 2027 trade-in headwind
- Steel/semi input cost compression on gross margin
- Brazil ag cycle correction extends
- Tariff / trade-war re-escalation (China retaliation)
- Wirtgen acquisition lap creates Q4 FY26 comp headwind
What to Watch on August 13
1. Q3 revenue magnitude:
Beat to ≥ $11.0B (above consensus $10.87B). Anything below $10.5B reverses cycle re-acceleration narrative.
2. Q3 EPS:
Beat to ≥ $5.30 (vs $5.13 cons). H1 beat magnitude was +15-20% — Q3 cushion already in sell-side.
3. FY26 NI guide:
RAISE to $4.75-5.25B midpoint extends cycle inflection thesis. Hold at $4.5-5.0B reads cautious.
4. P&PA segment YoY guide:
Currently held at -10% to -5%. Raise to -5% to 0% signals trough confirmation.
5. S&T cycle recovery:
Q2 op profit was $719M (vs $25M FQ4'25 trough). Q3 ≥ $600M confirms recovery.
6. C&F (Wirtgen) trajectory:
Q2 was $561M op profit. Q3 ≥ $500M confirms construction/forestry strength.
7. Order book disclosure:
Watch for Q4 delivery slots filling vs PY. Mgmt typically gives qualitative color.
8. Precision tech attach rate:
See & Spray + Operations Center adoption. Acres-engaged update vs 500M last disclosed.
9. Buyback pace:
FY26 YTD ~$1.5B; on-pace for $3B annual run-rate. Watch for guide on $5B+ stretch goal.
10. FY27 commentary:
First glimpse at FY27 setup. Mgmt typically signals next-year framework on Q3/Q4 calls.