Financial Trends — 5/10
DE is a cyclical oligopoly-leader industrial coming off the trough of a deep ag down-cycle.
Revenue YoY has inflected positive for three consecutive quarters, but margins and operating
profit remain well below the FY2023 peak and are still declining YoY — a textbook early-cycle
"less-bad" setup, not yet a clean re-acceleration. Share count declining steadily (-13.5% over
4 years). FCF positive but declining YoY. The mandatory "revenue growing but operating income
declining" penalty applies (-1), yielding 5/10.
Weight: 25%
FY2025 Revenue
$45.7B
-11.7% YoY | FY23 peak $61.3B
FY2025 Op Margin
13.2%
Trough | FY23 peak 21.2% (-800bps)
FY2025 Net Income
$5.0B
-29.2% YoY | FY23 peak $10.2B
Share Count
271M
-13.5% over 4 yrs | No dilution
Quarterly metrics (13 fiscal quarters)
| Fiscal Qtr | Revenue ($M) | YoY | Gross Margin | Op Margin | Net Income ($M) | NI YoY | Diluted EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY23Q2 | $17,387 | — | 30.8% | 22.4% | $2,860 | — | $8.53 |
| FY23Q3 | $15,801 | — | 29.5% | 22.3% | $2,978 | — | — |
| FY23Q4 | $15,412 | — | 28.4% | 19.6% | $2,369 | — | — |
| FY24Q1 | $12,185 | — | 27.0% | 18.0% | $1,751 | — | — |
| FY24Q2 | $15,235 | -12.4% | 29.2% | 20.3% | $2,370 | -17.1% | $8.53 |
| FY24Q3 | $13,152 | -16.8% | 26.9% | 17.5% | $1,734 | -41.8% | $6.29 |
| FY24Q4 | $11,143 | -27.7% | 24.3% | 13.0% | $1,245 | -47.4% | $4.55 |
| FY25Q1 | $8,508 | -30.2% | 20.8% | 9.3% | $869 | -50.4% | $3.19 |
| FY25Q2 | $12,763 | -16.2% | 27.9% | 18.1% | $1,804 | -23.9% | $6.64 |
| FY25Q3 | $12,018 | -8.6% | 23.2% | 13.0% | $1,289 | -25.7% | $4.75 |
| FY25Q4 | $12,394 | +11.2% | 21.3% | 10.9% | $1,065 | -14.5% | $3.93 |
| FY26Q1 | $9,611 | +13.0% | 17.9% | 8.0% | $656 | -24.5% | $2.42 |
| FY26Q2 | $13,369 | +4.7% | 26.3% | 16.7% | $1,773 | -1.7% | $6.55 |
Key trends
- Revenue YoY inflection: Bottomed at -30.2% (FY25Q1), turned positive for 3 straight quarters (+11.2%, +13.0%, +4.7%). Deceleration from +13% to +4.7% reflects tougher comps, not deterioration
- Operating profit still declining YoY even as revenue grows — FY26Q2 op profit -3.1% YoY. The top-line recovery has not yet flowed to the bottom line
- Margin compression: Op margin 13.2% in FY25 vs 21.2% in FY23 (~800bps peak-to-trough); EBITDA margin 18.1% vs 24.4% (~630bps)
- Share count declining steadily: 314M to 272M over 4 years, no dilution
Segment revenue (FQ2 FY2026)
C&F op profit +48% YoY is offsetting P&P Ag's -38% collapse. The mix is the story.
Annual summary (FY2021–FY2025)
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | YoY | Op Margin | EBITDA ($M) | Net Income ($M) | Dil. Shares (M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $44,024 | — | 18.2% | $10,062 | $5,963 | 314.0 |
| FY2022 | $52,577 | +19.4% | 18.1% | $11,403 | $7,131 | 306.3 |
| FY2023 | $61,251 | +16.5% | 21.2% | $14,962 | $10,166 | 293.6 |
| FY2024 | $51,716 | -15.6% | 17.5% | $11,157 | $7,100 | 277.1 |
| FY2025 | $45,684 | -11.7% | 13.2% | $8,249 | $5,027 | 271.7 |
Acceleration / deceleration read
Revenue YoY rates (last 6 fiscal quarters): FY25Q1 -30.2% → FY25Q2 -16.2% → FY25Q3 -8.6% → FY25Q4 +11.2% → FY26Q1 +13.0% → FY26Q2 +4.7%. The down-cycle bottomed in FY25Q1 and revenue has been positive for three quarters. The deceleration from +13.0% to +4.7% reflects tougher comps — this is a trough recovery, not a sustained re-acceleration.
Operating profit is still declining YoY even as revenue grows: FY26Q1 rev +13.0% / op profit -2.5%; FY26Q2 rev +4.7% / op profit -3.1%. This triggers the mandatory -1 penalty.
Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id 349). FYE October 31.