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COIN
Coinbase Global
Earnings
COIN | Earnings Review
Coinbase Global, Inc. | 2025 Q4 reported February 12, 2026 AMC | Analysis date: May 7, 2026 | Daloopa company_id 40954
Revenue MISS
-3.7%
$1,781M vs ~$1,850M cons; -21.6% YoY (Consumer -45.5%, transaction rev -36.8%); take rate compressed ~19 bps
Adj EBITDA MISS
-13%
$566M vs ~$650M; -56.1% YoY; margin collapsed 2,500 bps to 31.8%
GAAP / Adj EPS
-$2.49 / $0.66
GAAP loss driven by $718M crypto MTM + $395M Circle/strategic loss; Adj EPS thin beat ($0.64 cons); -80% YoY
Q1'26 S&S Guide CUT
$550-630M
Mid $590M ~21% below Q4 actual / ~4% below ~$617M Street; lower crypto px + Fed cuts compressing USDC reserve income; T&D + S&M held flat
Cyclical re-rating in motion: Q4 was a clean miss across the board, S&S guide cut on macro, and stock at $193 vs $445 high reflects 3 misses in 4 quarters. Revenue $1,781M (-21.6% YoY) MISSED ~$1,850M Street by -3.7%; Adj EBITDA $566M (-56% YoY) MISSED ~$650M by -13%; Adj EBITDA margin collapsed 2,500 bps to 31.8%. GAAP EPS -$2.49 on $718M unrealized crypto MTM loss + $395M Circle/strategic loss; Adj EPS $0.66 thin beat $0.64 cons but -80% YoY. Composition pain: Consumer transaction revenue $734M (-45.5% YoY); take rate 1.24% (-19 bps YoY/QoQ — Coinbase One mix shift); total trading volume $296B (-32.6% YoY). Bright spots: Institutional transaction revenue $185M (+30.9% YoY) — implied take rate jumped to 7.8 bps on derivatives/options mix (Deribit ATH quarter). Stablecoin revenue $364M (+61% YoY) the structural compounder; USDC in Coinbase products $18B (+50% YoY); off-platform $58B. FY25 still grew: Revenue $7.18B (+9.4%) — first print to surpass FY21 peak; but Adj EBITDA -16% and Adj diluted EPS $4.03 vs $7.58. Q1'26 guide: S&S $550-630M (mid $590M) ~21% below Q4 actual / ~4% below $617M Street — driven by lower avg crypto prices, lower Fed rates compressing USDC reserve income, lower staking protocol reward rates. T&D+G&A $925-975M and S&M $215-315M held flat. Transaction MTD through Feb 10 was ~$420M. Tone shifts: USDC pure-growth (Q1-Q3) → defend-the-moat (Q4) — Brian now defending stablecoin rewards in CLARITY Act drafts; market cap flatlining at $75B. Capital allocation HUGE shift: passive/opportunistic → active "buy the dip" — $1.7B repurchased Q4-through-Feb 10; NEW $2B authorization in January; weekly BTC purchases increased; offset 100% of 2025 dilution at $815M notional discount. Derivatives highest-conviction topic: Deribit fully integrated, called "big growth driver in 2026." Base L2 strongest sequential conviction build — #1 L2 on Ethereum; AI-agent stablecoin wallet traction; Base token explicitly being explored. CLARITY Act is single biggest near-term swing factor — Brian "optimistic next few months"; notably Senate amendment risk to ban stablecoin rewards would *increase* COIN profitability (would retain full Circle economics) but mgmt opposes on competitive grounds. Everything Exchange is the 2026 organizing thesis — equities (~10K tickers this month), prediction markets (Kalshi non-exclusive partnership), options via Deribit, commodities. Q1 print (May) is first proof point. Five narrative tensions across 4 transcripts: (1) USDC trajectory pivot from growth to velocity; (2) take rate quietly compressing; (3) buyback cadence flipped from "opportunistic" to deployed; (4) M&A appetite throttled ("selective"); (5) competitive stance defensive on equities/prediction markets vs Robinhood/Kraken. Watch: (1) Q1'26 print May 2026 — Everything Exchange first proof point; (2) CLARITY Act timing (next few months); (3) USDC market cap re-acceleration vs flatlining; (4) take-rate compression magnitude in Q1; (5) Circle (CRCL) stake mark — bearish for CRCL with COIN now competing on payments.
Key Metrics Trends
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer transaction rev ($M) | $935M | $665M | $483M | $1.3B | $1.1B | $650M | $844M | $734M |
| Consumer transaction rev ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +17.1% | -2.2% | +74.5% | -45.5% |
| Institutional transaction rev ($M) | $85M | $64M | $55M | $141M | $99M | $61M | $135M | $185M |
| Institutional transaction rev ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +15.8% | -4.4% | +144.1% | +30.9% |
| Stablecoin revenue ($M) | $197M | $240M | $247M | $226M | $298M | $332M | $355M | $364M |
| Stablecoin revenue ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +50.8% | +38.3% | +43.7% | +61.2% |
| Subscription & Services ($M) | $511M | $599M | $556M | $641M | $698M | $656M | $747M | $727M |
| Subscription & Services ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +36.6% | +9.5% | +34.3% | +13.5% |
| Total Revenue ($M) | $1.6B | $1.4B | $1.2B | $2.3B | $2.0B | $1.5B | $1.9B | $1.8B |
| Total Revenue ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +24.2% | +3.3% | +55.1% | -21.6% |
| Trading Volume ($B) | $312M | $226M | $185M | $439M | $393M | $237M | $295M | $296M |
| Trading Volume ($B) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +26.0% | +4.9% | +59.5% | -32.6% |
| Adj EBITDA ($M) | $1.0B | $596M | $449M | $1.3B | $930M | $512M | $801M | $566M |
| Adj EBITDA ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | -8.3% | -14.0% | +78.5% | -56.1% |
| Adj EBITDA Margin % | 61.9% | 41.1% | 37.2% | 56.7% | 45.7% | 34.2% | 42.8% | 31.8% |
| Adj EBITDA Margin % YoY chg (bps) | - | - | - | - | -1620 | -690 | +560 | -2490 |
| Adj Diluted EPS ($) | $2.53 | $1.06 | $0.63 | $3.37 | $1.94 | $0.12 | $1.44 | $0.66 |
| Adj Diluted EPS ($) YoY % | - | - | - | - | -23.3% | -88.7% | +128.6% | -80.4% |
_Trajectory: high-beta crypto cyclical with one durable compounder — decelerating into 2026. 2024Q1 BTC ETF launch drove Total Rev +112% YoY, Adj EBITDA +258%, margin +2,520 bps — first inflection. 2024Q4 Trump/BTC peak was the cycle high: Total Rev +138% YoY, Adj EBITDA $1.29B (margin 56.7%), trading volume $439B. 2025Q1-Q2 sharp YoY deceleration purely from comps; transaction revenue turned negative YoY in Q2. 2025Q4 print is the bear case in motion: Total Rev -22% YoY, Adj EBITDA -56%, EPS swung to -$2.49. Stock at $192.96 vs $444.65 52-wk high reflects this. Subscription & services is the only consistently growing line — every single quarter +9.5% to +78.6% YoY, doubling from $361M (23Q1) to $727M (25Q4) — the structural story underneath the cyclical noise. Verdict: high-beta crypto cyclical with one durable compounder (S&S); trajectory decelerating into 2026._
Beat/Miss
Guidance
Catalysts
Street Q&A
Contradictions
Read-Throughs
This Quarter vs Consensus
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Variance | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$1,850M | $1,781M | -$69M / -3.7% | MISS — -22% YoY |
| Adj EBITDA | ~$650M | $566M | -$84M / -13% | MISS — margin -2,500 bps |
| GAAP EPS | — | -$2.49 | $718M crypto MTM + $395M Circle loss | NM — non-cash drag |
| Adj EPS | $0.64 | $0.66 | +$0.02 | Thin beat (-80% YoY) |
| Consumer transaction rev | — | $734M | -45.5% YoY | Take rate -19 bps to 1.24% |
| Institutional transaction rev | — | $185M | +30.9% YoY | Deribit ATH quarter; take rate 7.8 bps |
| Subscription & Services | — | $727M | +13.5% YoY | Stablecoin +61% YoY structural compounder |
| Stablecoin revenue | — | $364M | +61.2% YoY | USDC $18B in COIN products (+50%) |
| L8Q beat rate | — | ~38% | — | Deteriorating |
| L4Q beat rate | — | 25% | — | 3 misses in 4 quarters |
| Q1'26 S&S guide | $617M | $550-630M (mid $590M) | -$27M / -4% | Cut on macro (lower crypto px + rates) |
Pattern: Cyclical re-rating — Street estimates anchored to peak run-rates produced 3 misses in 4 quarters. L8Q beat rate ~38% / L4Q 25% — deteriorating trend. Beats clustered in BTC rally quarters (Q1'24, Q4'24, Q3'25); misses in Q1'25, Q2'25, Q4'25. Mgmt variance drivers: (1) crypto market cap -11% Q/Q; (2) take-rate compression (Coinbase One mix shift, Advanced product); (3) Q1'26 S&S guide of $550-630M materially below $727M run-rate (lower crypto prices, lower rates, lower ETH/SOL staking rewards); (4) 14% Q/Q opex growth from Deribit/Echo deal costs and USDC rewards expense. Why stock fell from $444 to $193: textbook cyclical re-rating — Street estimates anchored to peak run-rates produced 3 misses in 4 quarters, with structural take-rate compression and a S&S guide-down compounding the multiple compression.
Guidance Deep Dive
| Metric | Q4'25 Actual / Prior | Q1'26 Guide | vs Prior | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 S&S Revenue | $727M Q4 actual | $550-630M (mid $590M) | ~21% below Q4 / ~4% below ~$617M Street | Lower crypto px + Fed cuts compressing USDC reserve |
| Q1'26 Transaction MTD (through Feb 10) | — | ~$420M | — | Tracks crypto market |
| Q1'26 T&D + G&A OpEx | $925-975M Q4 range | $925-975M maintained | Maintained | Discipline |
| Q1'26 S&M OpEx | $215-315M Q4 range | $215-315M maintained | Maintained | Discipline |
| Q1'26 Stablecoin revenue drivers | — | USDC market cap flatlined at $75B | Velocity story now | Pivot from growth to velocity |
| FY26 USDC trajectory | $75B ATH | Defend-the-moat per Brian | Tone shift Q4 | CLARITY Act stablecoin rewards debate |
| FY26 Capital Allocation | — | $1.7B repurchased Q4-through-Feb 10 + NEW $2B auth in Jan | Active "buy the dip" | Offset 100% of 2025 dilution at $815M notional discount |
| FY26 Derivatives growth | Q4 Deribit ATH | "Big growth driver in 2026" | Highest-conviction topic | Deribit fully integrated |
| FY26 Base L2 | #1 L2 on Ethereum | AI-agent stablecoin wallet traction | Strongest conviction build | Base token explicitly explored |
| FY26 Everything Exchange | — | Equities (~10K tickers this month), prediction (Kalshi), options (Deribit), commodities | 2026 organizing thesis | Q1 print (May) first proof point |
| FY26 CLARITY Act | Pending | "Optimistic next few months" | Single biggest swing factor | Stablecoin rewards ban would actually INCREASE COIN profitability |
| FY26 M&A appetite | Q1 "a lot more" / Q3 "pace picked up" | Q4 "obviously being very selective" | Throttled | OpEx digestion focus |
| FY26 Take rate trend | Consumer 1.24% Q4 (-19 bps) | Coinbase One mix shift = ongoing compression | Structural | Mgmt declined to quantify Q1 |
| FY26 GAAP volatility | Q4 -$2.49 EPS | $718M crypto MTM + $395M Circle markdown | Ongoing | Not run-rate signal |
Tone shifts across 4 quarters: USDC pure-growth (Q1-Q3) → defend-the-moat (Q4) — Brian now defending stablecoin rewards in CLARITY Act drafts. Capital allocation = biggest shift: passive/opportunistic → active "buy the dip" ($1.7B Q4-Feb 10 + new $2B authorization). Derivatives highest-conviction topic. Base strongest sequential conviction build. Regulatory tone peaked in Q2'25 (Project Crypto); Q4 more legislative-grind/protective vs triumphalist. Stock reaction: -7.9% post-print, driven by S&S cut and EPS miss ($0.66 vs ~$1.05 expected — $0.99 EPS miss largely from $718M unrealized crypto investment loss + $395M Circle mark-down). Risks: Rate sensitivity on USDC reserve income (every 25bp Fed cut compresses margin), CLARITY Act tail risk, Robinhood + Binance competition, take-rate compression from Coinbase One mix, GAAP volatility from Circle stake. Five narrative tensions across 4 transcripts: (1) USDC pivot from growth to velocity; (2) take-rate quietly compressing; (3) buyback cadence flipped to deployed; (4) M&A appetite throttled; (5) competitive stance defensive on equities/prediction vs Robinhood/Kraken (never named).
Upcoming Catalysts
| # | Catalyst | Timing | What to Watch | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLARITY Act | Next few months (per Brian) | Single biggest near-term swing factor; Senate amendment to ban stablecoin rewards would increase COIN profitability (would retain full Circle economics) | Most asymmetric — but mgmt opposes ban on customer/competitive grounds |
| 2 | Everything Exchange — 2026 organizing thesis | Q1 2026 print (May) | Equities (~10K tickers this month), prediction markets (Kalshi non-exclusive), options via Deribit, commodities | First real proof point |
| 3 | Q1'26 setup | Q1 2026 | S&S $550-630M; Transaction MTD through Feb 10 ~$420M; $2B fresh buyback added to existing $1.7B already deployed | Mixed but capital return firm |
| 4 | Deribit ATH quarter | Already in Q4 numbers | Institutional take rate jumped to 7.8 bps; "big growth driver in 2026" | Underestimated lever |
| 5 | Base + AI agents driving stablecoin wallets | Through FY26 | AI-agent stablecoin wallet adoption; Base token explicitly being explored | Underestimated |
| 6 | USDC at ~$75B ATH market cap | FY26 | Flatlining — velocity not cap monetization | Watch — pivot in narrative |
| 7 | Coinbase One mix shift / take-rate compression | Through FY26 | Q4: 1.24% (-19 bps); ongoing Q1; mgmt declined to quantify | Structural pressure |
| 8 | Competitive intensity from HOOD on prediction markets + tokenization | FY26 | Robinhood expansion; Kalshi partnership non-exclusive | Watch |
| 9 | BTC/ETH cycle | Ongoing | High beta to GAAP via crypto portfolio marks — Q4 had $718M unrealized loss + $395M Circle/strategic loss | GAAP volatility ongoing |
| 10 | Circle (CRCL) stake mark | Ongoing | $395M loss Q4; COIN now competing on payments vs CRCL | Bearish for CRCL |
| 11 | Capital allocation: $2B fresh authorization | Multi-year | $1.7B repurchased Q4-through-Feb 10; offset 100% of 2025 dilution at $815M notional discount; weekly BTC purchases | Aggressive |
| 12 | Stablecoin Genius Act / GENIUS Act regulatory | FY26 | Already law — drove 150+ corporate stablecoin integrations | Tailwind |
| 13 | Tokenization / RWA | FY26-FY27 | Tokenized equities on roadmap; AI-agents-paying-USDC-on-Base thesis | Optionality |
| 14 | Fed rate sensitivity | Ongoing | Every 25bp cut compresses USDC reserve income margin | Macro tail risk |
| 15 | BTC strategic reserve / Trump admin | FY26 | Pro-crypto Trump admin; institutional flows (5 G-SIB banks, 150 govt agencies as customers) | Sentiment tailwind |
Street Q&A
| # | Analyst (Firm) | Topic | Mgmt Response | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Multiple analysts | Trading volume / take rate | Haas: Q4 take rate 1.24%; declined to quantify Q1 trajectory. | Partial |
| 2 | Multiple analysts | USDC growth / market cap | Brian: USDC flatlined at $75B; pivot to velocity-not-cap monetization story. | Direct framing change |
| 3 | Bo Pei | Take rate compression magnitude | Haas declined to quantify. | Hard deflection |
| 4 | Todaro | Current USDC platform balance | Haas declined to give intra-quarter snapshot. | Deflection |
| 5 | Gala | B2B payments S-curve timing | Brian declined to commit to timeline. | Deflection |
| 6 | Budish | Specific cost flex in downside scenarios | Haas declined to give specifics. | Deflection |
| 7 | Bamberger | Leverage / freeze risk on Echo/Deribit | Haas declined to quantify. | Deflection |
| 8 | InternetToken (X question) | Base S&S contribution | Brian declined to give breakout. | Deflection |
| 9 | Multiple analysts | Subscription & services Q1 outlook | Haas: $550-630M; lower crypto prices, rates, staking rewards. | Well Answered — quantified |
| 10 | Multiple analysts | Capital allocation / buybacks | Brian/Haas: $1.7B Q4-through-Feb 10; new $2B authorization; offset 100% of 2025 dilution. | Well Answered — explicit pivot |
| 11 | Multiple analysts | Regulatory / CLARITY Act | Brian: "optimistic next few months"; stablecoin rewards ban would increase COIN profitability but mgmt opposes on customer grounds. | Well Answered — direct framing |
| 12 | Multiple analysts | Everything Exchange / equities / prediction markets | Brian: equities ~10K tickers this month; Kalshi partnership; non-exclusive. | Well Answered — strategy framework |
| 13 | Multiple analysts | M&A appetite | Brian: "obviously being very selective"; OpEx digestion focus. | Throttled tone vs prior |
| 14 | Multiple analysts | Base L2 | Brian: #1 L2 on Ethereum; AI-agent stablecoin wallet traction; Base token explored. | Well Answered — strongest conviction |
Contradictions
| # | Topic | Severity | Statement A | Statement B | Why it's a tension |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USDC trajectory | Medium — narrative pivot | Q1-Q3'25: bullish growth ($60B → $74B ATH; on-platform $12B → $15B) | Q4'25: aggregate stablecoin market cap "flatlined"; pivoted to velocity-not-cap monetization story | Pivot in narrative — growth story partially intact via velocity but cap framing flipped. |
| 2 | Take rate | Medium — accounting reclass + structural | Q1: $30-40M Q2 contra-revenue from rebates; Q3 "no material change in pricing" | Q2: reclassified as transaction expense (different P&L line); Q4: structural Coinbase One compression conceded (-19 bps) | Q3 'no material change' understated structural compression Q4 then conceded. |
| 3 | Buyback cadence | Medium — pace shift | Q1-Q3: framed buybacks as "opportunistic" with little execution | Q4: $1.7B deployed concentrated in Q4-early Feb + fresh $2B authorization | Defensible as price-driven, but a meaningful pace shift. |
| 4 | M&A appetite | Medium — throttled | Q1: "expect a lot more from us" / Q3: "pace has picked up" | Q4: "obviously being very selective" + Haas OpEx digestion comments | Throttled posture. |
| 5 | Competitive stance | Low — defensive vs welcoming | Q1: dismissed regulatory clarity as moat; welcomed entrants | Q3-Q4: actions (white-glove for whales, Everything Exchange, equities/prediction markets) read as defensive responses to Robinhood/Kraken (never named) | Reads defensive but mgmt didn't acknowledge. |
| 6 | S&S durability | None | Consistently price-/rates-driven | — | Consistent. |
| 7 | Regulatory commentary | None | Uniformly positive on Atkins SEC and Trump admin | — | Consistent. |
| 8 | Base L2 monetization | None | Scope expanded across quarters but consistent direction | — | Consistent. |
Indirect Read-Throughs
| Name | Relationship | What COIN signaled | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Circle (CRCL) | USDC partner + competitor | $395M strategic-investment loss on Circle stake AND explicit "we also compete with them" tension; will compete on payments | NEGATIVE for CRCL — mark-to-market + partnership risk |
| Robinhood (HOOD) | Direct exchange competitor | NOT named but Everything Exchange (equities, prediction, options, commodities) clearly defensive against HOOD expansion; HOOD competing on prediction markets + tokenization | NEGATIVE — competitive intensity |
| Kraken / Binance | Exchange competitors | Brian: "more than the next 4 competitors combined" (implicit Kraken + Binance + Bybit + OKX framing) | NEGATIVE — share take narrative |
| BlackRock (BLK — IBIT) | BTC ETF issuer | 9th consecutive quarter of native-unit inflows; institutional flows; not directly named | POSITIVE — institutional crypto adoption |
| BNY (BK) / State Street (STT) | Custodians (5 G-SIB banks as customers) | 5 G-SIB banks among customers | POSITIVE — institutional infrastructure |
| Stripe (private — partnership) | Payments partner | AI-agents-paying-USDC-on-Base thesis aligned with Stripe payments stack | POSITIVE |
| PayPal (PYPL) | Payments / stablecoin peer (PYUSD) | Implicit competitor in stablecoin payments | NEGATIVE — competitive USDC lead |
| Visa / Mastercard | Payments rails | AI-agents-paying-USDC-on-Base = bypass crypto-native rails | Long-term competitive substitute |
| MicroStrategy (MSTR) | BTC treasury company | COIN weekly BTC purchases continue; treasury mode positive analog | POSITIVE adjacency |
| Bitfarms (BITF) / Marathon (MARA) / Riot (RIOT) | BTC miners | Crypto market cap -11% Q/Q drives mining economics | NEGATIVE near-term |
| Deribit (acquired) | Owned derivatives exchange | Largest crypto deal ever; ATH derivatives quarter; "big growth driver 2026" | POSITIVE — owned |
| Echo (acquired) | Onchain capital formation | Acquisition closed; OpEx pressure | Strategic |
| Kalshi (private) | Prediction markets partner | Partnership non-exclusive; leaves room for own venue | POSITIVE optionality |
| Ethereum (ETH) / Solana (SOL) | L1 networks | Blockchain rewards $151.6M Q4 (-30% YoY); staking yield compressed | Macro yield drag |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | Treasury asset | BTC drawdown -11% QoQ drove $718M unrealized loss | GAAP volatility |
| BlockFi/BlockFill | Competitor (outage) | Competitor outage referenced | POSITIVE — share take |
| Tether (USDT) | Stablecoin competitor | Implicit reference to offshore stablecoins | Competitive |
| Chinese CBDC / digital yuan | Geopolitical | Brian framing geopolitical urgency around US stablecoin adoption | Sentiment |
| CME | Derivatives exchange (legacy) | Deribit threat — COIN now competes on regulated crypto futures | NEGATIVE for CME crypto |
| Uniswap / Aave / DEX | DeFi protocols | Onchain volume continues; Base hosts much of activity | Coexistence |
Data sourced from Daloopa. Document search is currently in beta; transcript and filing snippets may vary.