Thematic Exposure -- 5/10

Coinbase is the #1 US crypto exchange (~41% NA activity) -- the highest-trust retail venue post-FTX. Oligopoly gate PASS on the US market. But globally only ~4.5-6% of trading volume (Binance dominates at ~38%). Transaction revenue (56% of mix) is deeply cyclical and now contracting -40% YoY. Subscription & Services is growing and diversifying but still a minority. USDC is #2 behind USDT (~24% vs ~59%). A leader fenced into its home market with a cyclical core. Weight: 35%

#1 US Crypto Exchange (~41% NA)

Domestic Oligopoly -- PASS

Coinbase holds ~41% of North American crypto trading activity -- the clear #1 post-FTX. Highest regulatory trust in a 2-3 player US market (Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini). Oligopoly gate PASS on the domestic market. Design-in with institutional clients (Coinbase Prime/Custody).

Global Share Only ~4.5-6%

Cyclical Core -- Transaction Revenue Contracting

The caveat: globally Coinbase is only ~4.5-6% of trading volume. Binance dominates at ~38%. The US oligopoly is real but doesn't scale internationally. Transaction revenue drives 56% of the business and is deeply cyclical (down -40% YoY Q1'26 on -49% volume decline).

Diversification: Subs & Services + USDC

Growing but Still a Minority of Revenue

Subscription & Services (staking, custody, interest, Coinbase One) is growing and becoming a larger share of revenue. USDC stablecoin is #2 behind Tether's USDT (~24% vs ~59% share). Deribit acquisition adds derivatives. Base L2 chain adds protocol revenue. These are genuine diversification vectors but still a minority of the mix.

Oligopoly Gate

PASS on US market (~41% NA). But globally only ~4.5-6% share.

Data sourced from Daloopa.