Financial Trends -- 3/10

Clear deceleration phase. After hyper-growth in 2024 (revenue +111% FY24), both transaction and total revenue rolled over hard — total revenue -30.5% YoY in Q1’26, transaction revenue -40% YoY, trading volume -49% YoY. Adj. EBITDA margin compressed from ~46% to 21.5%. GAAP operating income swung back to a loss. Share count diluting +3.5% YoY. Debt grew ~40%/yr in FY24–FY25, faster than revenue. Textbook “decelerating revenue + compressing margins + diluting share count” profile. Weight: 25%

Q1'26 Revenue

-30.5% YoY

Deeply contracting

Transaction Rev

-40% YoY

Vol -49% | Core engine collapsing

Adj. EBITDA Margin

21.5%

Down from 46% | Compressing

Share Count

+3.5% YoY

Diluting | Negative

Quarterly Revenue Trajectory ($M, 9 Quarters)

Metric	Q1 24	Q2 24	Q3 24	Q4 24	Q1 25	Q2 25	Q3 25	Q4 25	Q1 26
Revenue ($M)	$1,638M	$1,450M	$1,205M	$2,272M	$2,034M	$1,497M	$1,869M	$1,781M	~$1,414M
Rev YoY	+112%	+105%	+79%	+138%	+24%	+3%	+55%	-22%	-30.5%

Revenue deceleration has turned into outright contraction. After +138% in Q4’24, YoY growth crashed to +24%, +3%, +55%, -22%, and now -30.5%. Q1’26 marks the second consecutive quarter of YoY decline and the steepest drop since the crypto winter of 2022. The trajectory is unambiguously negative.

Revenue by Segment ($M, 9 Quarters)

Metric	Q1 24	Q2 24	Q3 24	Q4 24	Q1 25	Q2 25	Q3 25	Q4 25	Q1 26
Transaction Rev	$1,077M	$781M	$573M	$1,556M	$1,262M	$764M	$1,046M	$983M	~$757M
Txn Rev YoY	+187%	+139%	+98%	+194%	+17%	-2%	+83%	-37%	-40%
Sub & Services	$511M	$599M	$556M	$641M	$698M	$656M	$747M	$727M	—

Transaction revenue is collapsing: From $1,262M (Q1 25) to ~$757M (Q1 26), -40% YoY. Trading volume fell -49% YoY. This is the core revenue engine and it is in freefall
Subscription & services provided a floor through FY25 but has not yet been reported for Q1 26
Transaction revenue dominance means total revenue tracks crypto volumes almost mechanically

Operating Income & Adj. EBITDA ($M)

Metric	Q1 24	Q2 24	Q3 24	Q4 24	Q1 25	Q2 25	Q3 25	Q4 25	Q1 26
GAAP Op Income	$760M	$343M	$170M	$1,034M	$706M	($25M)	$481M	$274M	Loss
GAAP Op Margin	46.4%	23.7%	14.1%	45.5%	34.7%	-1.6%	25.7%	15.4%	Neg.
Adj. EBITDA	$1,014M	$596M	$449M	$1,289M	$930M	$512M	$801M	$566M	~$304M
Adj. EBITDA Margin	61.9%	41.1%	37.2%	56.7%	45.7%	34.2%	42.8%	31.8%	21.5%

Margins are in freefall. Adj. EBITDA margin collapsed from 45.7% (Q1’25) to 21.5% (Q1’26) — a -2,420 bps compression in a single year. GAAP operating income swung back to a loss. This mirrors the 2022-2023 downturn pattern, but the cost base is now much larger after the Deribit acquisition and headcount expansion, making the margin squeeze more severe on a dollar basis.

Share Count Trend

Metric	Q4 23	Q1 24	Q2 24	Q3 24	Q4 24	Q1 25	Q2 25	Q3 25	Q4 25	Q1 26
Shares Out (A+B, M)	242.0	245.4	248.3	250.3	253.6	254.6	256.4	268.7	267.8	~263.5
YoY Dilution	—	+4.6%	+4.8%	+4.6%	+4.8%	+3.7%	+3.3%	+7.4%	+5.6%	+3.5%

Dilution is persistent at +3.5% YoY in Q1 26, adding insult to the revenue contraction
Share count has grown from 242M to ~264M over the trailing two years -- SBC-driven dilution continues despite the buyback program
Combined with declining revenue, per-share metrics are deteriorating on both the numerator and denominator

Long-Term Debt ($M)

Metric	Q4 2022	Q4 2023	Q4 2024	Q4 2025
LT Debt ($M)	$3,393M	$2,980M	$4,234M	$5,937M
Debt YoY	—	-12%	+42%	+40%

Debt grew ~40%/yr in FY24–FY25 while revenue is now contracting. Long-term debt nearly doubled from $2.98B (Q4 23) to $5.94B (Q4 25), driven by convertible note issuances. With revenue now declining -30.5% YoY, the debt-to-revenue leverage ratio is deteriorating rapidly. Penalty trigger remains in force.

Penalty Modifiers Applied

Modifier	Applied?	Points
Revenue declining YoY	Yes (-30.5% Q1 26)	-1
Margins compressing	Yes (Adj EBITDA 46% to 21.5%)	-1
Share dilution ongoing	Yes (+3.5% YoY)	-1
Debt growing faster than revenue	Yes (Debt +40%, Rev declining)	-1
Negative FCF (Annual)	No (FY25 OCF +$2.4B)	0

Score Rationale

Score of 3/10 reflects a textbook deceleration profile: contracting revenue, collapsing margins, persistent dilution, and aggressive debt accumulation.

Starting score: 7 -- Gross margin still stable (~86%), operating cash flow positive on annual basis ($2.4B FY25), subscription & services revenue provides a partial floor ($2.83B FY25, +23%).

Penalty: Revenue declining -30.5% YoY: -1 -- Total revenue rolled over hard after +111% FY24. Q4 25 was -22%, Q1 26 deepened to -30.5%. Transaction revenue -40% YoY, trading volume -49% YoY. Core engine collapsing.

Penalty: Margins compressing severely: -1 -- Adj. EBITDA margin fell from ~46% (Q1 25) to 21.5% (Q1 26), -2,420 bps. GAAP operating income swung back to a loss. Cost base grew with Deribit acquisition and headcount while revenue contracted.

Penalty: Share dilution ongoing: -1 -- Share count +3.5% YoY. Combined with declining revenue, per-share metrics are deteriorating from both sides. Buyback program insufficient to offset SBC.

Penalty: Debt growing faster than revenue: -1 -- Long-term debt surged +40%/yr in FY24-FY25 ($2.98B to $5.94B) through convertible note issuances. Revenue now contracting, making leverage ratios worse with each quarter.

Base: 7 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 = 3.0

Data sourced from Daloopa and COIN earnings releases. All financials in USD. Fiscal year ends December 31.