Financial Trends -- 5/10
COIN exhibits extreme revenue cyclicality tied to crypto market cycles. FY2025 revenue of
$7.18B grew just +9% YoY after +111% in FY2024, with quarterly momentum collapsing from
+55% in Q3 to -22% in Q4 as crypto volumes retreated. GAAP operating margin compressed
-1,510 bps (35.1% to 20.0%) and GAAP EPS halved from $9.48 to $4.45. Subscription &
services revenue ($2.83B, +23% YoY) is decelerating but provides a more stable base, led by
stablecoin revenue ($1.35B, +48% YoY). Long-term debt surged +40% to $5.94B, growing
materially faster than revenue. Two penalty modifiers applied: revenue growing but operating
income declining, and debt growing faster than revenue.
Weight: 25%
FY25 Revenue
$7.18B
+9% YoY | Q4 at -22%
FY25 GAAP EPS
$4.45
-53% YoY | Halved
FY25 Adj. EBITDA Margin
39.1%
-1,190 bps YoY | Compressing
LT Debt (Q4 25)
$5.94B
+40% YoY | Faster than revenue
Annual Financial Summary (FY ends December)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $7,839M | $3,194M | $3,108M | $6,564M | $7,181M |
| Rev YoY | — | -59% | -3% | +111% | +9% |
| Gross Margin | — | — | 86.5% | 86.3% | 85.8% |
| GAAP Op Margin | — | — | -5.2% | 35.1% | 20.0% |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | — | — | 31.0% | 51.0% | 39.1% |
| GAAP Diluted EPS | $14.50 | $(11.83) | $0.37 | $9.48 | $4.45 |
| Operating CF ($M) | $10,730M | ($1,585M) | $923M | $2,557M | $2,426M |
| WA Diluted Shares (M) | — | — | 254 | 273 | 287 |
Key trends -- annual
- Extreme revenue cyclicality: Revenue swung from $7.84B (2021) to $3.19B (2022, -59%) to $3.11B (2023, -3%) to $6.56B (2024, +111%) to $7.18B (2025, +9%). Revenue is almost entirely crypto-cycle dependent
- Margin compression in 2025: GAAP operating margin fell from 35.1% to 20.0% (-1,510 bps). Adj. EBITDA margin fell from 51.0% to 39.1% (-1,190 bps). Total OpEx grew 35% while revenue grew 9%
- EPS halved: GAAP diluted EPS dropped from $9.48 to $4.45 (-53%), with Q4 2025 posting a $(2.49) loss driven by crypto asset markdowns
- Operating cash flow roughly flat: $2.56B (2024) to $2.43B (2025), but quarterly OCF is highly lumpy (Q3 25 was -$785M, Q4 25 was +$3.07B)
- Dilution ongoing: WA diluted shares grew from 254M to 287M (+13%) over two years. COIN initiated a buyback ($790M in 2025) but gross share count still rising ~5% YoY
Quarterly Revenue Trajectory ($M, 12 Quarters)
Q4 2025 revenue declined -22% YoY -- a massive swing from +55% in Q3.
This illustrates the extreme volatility inherent in COIN revenue. The quarterly pattern
shows clear crypto-volume dependency: Q4 2024 (+138%) and Q1 2025 (+24%) coincided with
peak crypto activity, while Q4 2025 (-22%) reflects the subsequent pullback. Revenue
predictability is minimal.
Revenue by Segment ($M, Quarterly)
- Transaction revenue is the volatile driver: Swung from $1,556M (Q4 24) to $983M (Q4 25), -37% YoY. This line item is pure crypto trading volume exposure
- Subscription & services is the stable base: Grew from $362M (Q1 23) to $727M (Q4 25). YoY growth decelerating: +37% (Q1 25), +9% (Q2 25), +34% (Q3 25), +13% (Q4 25)
- Transaction revenue still dominates: ~56% of total revenue in 2025, making overall revenue trajectory heavily crypto-dependent
Subscription & Services Breakdown ($M)
Stablecoin revenue is the standout growth driver.
Grew from $197M (Q1 24) to $364M (Q4 25), +85% over the period. Annual stablecoin
revenue reached $1.35B in 2025 (+48% YoY). This revenue stream benefits from USDC
adoption growth and is less correlated to crypto trading volumes. Blockchain rewards
and interest income are roughly flat, while "Other" grew meaningfully in 2025.
Gross Margin (Revenue less Transaction Expense)
| Metric | Q1 23 | Q2 23 | Q3 23 | Q4 23 | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction Exp ($M) | $96M | $108M | $91M | $126M | $217M | $191M | $172M | $317M | $303M | $245M | $253M | $219M |
| Gross Profit ($M) | $676M | $600M | $584M | $828M | $1,420M | $1,258M | $1,033M | $1,955M | $1,731M | $1,252M | $1,616M | $1,562M |
| Gross Margin % | 87.5% | 84.7% | 86.6% | 86.8% | 86.7% | 86.8% | 85.7% | 86.1% | 85.1% | 83.6% | 86.5% | 87.7% |
- Gross margin is remarkably stable at ~84-88% across all quarters, regardless of revenue level. The marginal cost structure is very lean
- Annual gross margin: 86.5% (2023), 86.3% (2024), 85.8% (2025) -- slight compression of ~50 bps but essentially stable
Operating Income & Adj. EBITDA ($M)
| Metric | Q1 23 | Q2 23 | Q3 23 | Q4 23 | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAAP Op Income | ($124M) | ($74M) | ($80M) | $116M | $760M | $343M | $170M | $1,034M | $706M | ($25M) | $481M | $274M |
| GAAP Op Margin | -16.0% | -10.4% | -11.8% | 12.1% | 46.4% | 23.7% | 14.1% | 45.5% | 34.7% | -1.6% | 25.7% | 15.4% |
| Adj. EBITDA | $284M | $194M | $181M | $305M | $1,014M | $596M | $449M | $1,289M | $930M | $512M | $801M | $566M |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 36.7% | 27.4% | 26.9% | 32.0% | 61.9% | 41.1% | 37.2% | 56.7% | 45.7% | 34.2% | 42.8% | 31.8% |
Operating margin compression is severe.
GAAP operating margin fell from 35.1% (FY24) to 20.0% (FY25), -1,510 bps. Adj. EBITDA
margin fell from 51.0% to 39.1%, -1,190 bps. Operating income declined 38% ($2.31B to
$1.44B) despite revenue growing 9% -- a penalty trigger. Q2 2025 posted a GAAP operating
loss of $(25M). Total operating expenses grew 35% to $5.75B, driven by the Deribit
acquisition and headcount growth.
Diluted EPS (Quarterly)
- GAAP EPS is wildly volatile: Ranges from $(2.49) to $5.14 within 2025 alone, driven by crypto asset gains/losses flowing through the income statement
- Annual GAAP EPS: $9.48 (2024) to $4.45 (2025), -53%
- Adj. EPS (reported only for 2025 quarters): $1.94, $0.12, $1.44, $0.66 -- also volatile and declining through the year
Operating Cash Flow ($M, Annual)
- OCF roughly flat YoY: $2.56B (2024) to $2.43B (2025), -5%. Revenue grew 9% but FCF margin declined from ~39% to ~34%
- Quarterly OCF is extremely lumpy: Q3 2025 was -$785M, Q4 2025 was +$3.07B. This makes quarterly cash flow analysis unreliable
- Historical OCF ranges wildly: From $10.7B (2021) to -$1.6B (2022) to $0.9B (2023), reflecting the crypto cycle
Share Count Trend (12 Quarters)
- Dilution is persistent: Shares outstanding grew ~5% YoY consistently, driven by stock-based compensation
- First buyback program initiated in 2025: $790M repurchased, partially offsetting SBC dilution. This is a new positive
- Annual WA diluted shares: 254M (2023), 273M (2024), 287M (2025) -- growing ~7% and ~5% respectively
Long-Term Debt ($M)
Debt growing materially faster than revenue -- penalty trigger.
Long-term debt rose from $4.23B to $5.94B in 2025 (+40%), while revenue grew just +9%.
Driven by convertible note issuances. Debt has nearly doubled from the 2023 low of
$2.98B. While the company remains cash-flow positive, the pace of debt accumulation
relative to revenue growth is a concern.
YoY Growth Rate Trajectory (2025 Quarters)
| Metric | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Rev YoY | +24% | +3% | +55% | -22% |
| Transaction Rev YoY | +17% | -2% | +83% | -37% |
| Sub & Svc Rev YoY | +37% | +9% | +34% | +13% |
| GAAP Op Income YoY | -7% | NM | +184% | -74% |
| Adj. EBITDA YoY | -8% | -14% | +78% | -56% |
| Trend | Decel. | Decel. | Spike | Collapse |
- Every major metric is decelerating or negative by Q4 2025
- Transaction revenue turned negative in Q2 and collapsed -37% in Q4
- Sub & services decelerated from +37% to +13% -- still positive but the trajectory is down
- Adj. EBITDA swung from +78% (Q3) to -56% (Q4), highlighting margin sensitivity to transaction revenue volumes
Penalty Modifiers Applied
| Modifier | Applied? | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Negative FCF | No (Annual FCF positive) | 0 |
| Share dilution >10% YoY | No (~5%) | 0 |
| Revenue growing but op income declining | Yes | -1 |
| Debt growing faster than revenue | Yes | -1 |
Score rationale
Score of 5/10 reflects extreme crypto-cycle revenue dependence with compressing margins and two penalty triggers.
Starting score: 7 -- Revenue still growing modestly (+9%), gross margin stable (~86%), positive operating cash flow, company remains profitable on an annual basis.
Penalty: Revenue growing but operating income declining: -1 -- FY2025 revenue grew +9% but operating income fell -38% ($2.31B to $1.44B). Total operating expenses grew 35% to $5.75B, driven by the Deribit acquisition and headcount additions.
Penalty: Debt growing faster than revenue: -1 -- Long-term debt surged +40% ($4.23B to $5.94B) while revenue grew just +9%. Multiple quarters of convertible note issuances.
Base: 7 - 1 - 1 = 5.0
Positives: Stablecoin revenue growing +48% YoY to $1.35B (less crypto-dependent). Gross margin stable at ~86%. First buyback program ($790M). Operating CF of $2.4B. Sub & services revenue providing growing base ($2.83B, +23%).
Negatives: Q4 2025 revenue -22% YoY shows cycle turning. Transaction revenue -37% in Q4. GAAP EPS halved from $9.48 to $4.45. Adj. EBITDA margin compressed -1,190 bps. Share dilution ongoing (~5% YoY). Quarterly earnings wildly volatile ($(2.49) to $5.14 within a single year).
Data sourced from Daloopa and COIN earnings releases. All financials in USD. Fiscal year ends December.