CHD | Earnings Review — Q2 2026

The quarter split in two. Church & Dwight posted its best revenue surprise in eight quarters (+1.8%, $1,530.0M vs ~$1,503M) and its first adjusted-EPS miss in twelve quarters ($0.89 vs $0.90) in the same print. Organic sales growth accelerated to +5.8% — the high of the cycle and a 700 bps swing off the -1.2% trough in 2025Q1 — and it is the right kind of growth: volume +4.3% with price/mix +1.5%, the first positive price/mix in nine quarters. All three divisions grew (Domestic organic +5.1%, International +9.1%, Specialty +2.8%), e-commerce grew +22.7% to 25.5% of consumer sales, and the company beat its own ~3% organic guide by 280 bps after beating it by 200 bps in Q1.

And yet adjusted profit went backwards. Adjusted income from operations fell $28.7M / -9.1% YoY and adjusted EBITDA fell 5.6% with margin -176 bps. The mechanism is fully disclosed: adjusted gross margin added only +40 bps (down from +130 bps in Q1'26 and 10 bps short of the ~50 bps management guided), while marketing rose $8.2M (+40 bps of sales) and adjusted SG&A rose +220 bps of sales on TOUCHLAND amortization and operating costs. Those two lines consumed the entire gross-margin gain and $28.7M more. Adjusted EPS only landed at $0.89 because of a 350 bps lower tax rate (20.3% vs 23.8%) and a 3.3% lower share count — strip both out and the quarter was roughly $0.82. Reported EPS of $0.85 (+9.0%) flatters the print by lapping last year's charges; -5.3% adjusted is the honest read.

New guidance — raised on everything except operating earnings. FY26 organic went to +4% to +5% (from +3-4%), reported sales to flat-to-+1% (from -1.5% to -0.5%), adjusted gross margin to +100-120 bps, and operating cash flow to ~$1.175B (from $1.150B). Adjusted EPS growth moved to +6% to +8% from +5-8% — a midpoint bump of just ~$0.015, against a tax-rate cut (21.5% to ~21.0%) worth roughly +$0.024. Ex-tax, the operating midpoint went down about a cent. One hundred percent of the top-line upside is being reinvested, not banked — exactly as management said they would do with the ~$15M of phase II tariff refunds and with marketing "at or above 11%."

The asymmetry to underwrite. The organic guide has cushion (it embeds ~180 bps of 2H deceleration off a 1H run-rate of +5.4%, against categories management says are "growing faster than initially expected," distribution gains still landing, and MISS MOUTH'S outside the organic base). The EPS guide has none: 1H26 adjusted EPS of $1.84 is -0.5% YoY, which forces 2H to +13.8% to +18.0%, and leaves an unguided Q4 residual of $1.01-$1.08, or +17.4% to +25.6% YoY. That rests on the TOUCHLAND amortization lap (mechanical, high confidence), 2H gross margin accelerating to +113/+153 bps from +85 bps in 1H (assumption, medium confidence), and the share count.

Tone. The most confident of the four-quarter series — Middle East inflation was de-quantified from "$25-30M" to "some… transitory" pressure, the consumer went from "mixed" to "resilient," and the M&A language on MISS MOUTH'S ("we don't think we've been more excited about an acquisition in a long time") is the most enthusiastic on record. The Q1 overhang — reiterate, do not raise — is gone.

Contradictions (11 found, 3 High). The release promises "continued momentum" in 2H while guiding 2H organic down ~180 bps to ~3%; Q2's "industry-leading" 5.8% drops the ~2 pt retail-inventory caveat Dierker himself volunteered for Q1's 5.0% against an equally destocked base; and after "we have no plans to price" / "it's not driven on price," price/mix printed +1.5% uniformly across all three divisions — about 26% of the organic growth, and the signature of trade/promo optimization rather than brand mix.

Catalysts. Near term is negative-on-the-print, positive-on-the-setup: Q3 guided to ~$0.89 vs a $0.93-0.94 Street — the second straight below-Street quarterly guide, though narrowing from -9.3% to -5.3%. The real event is 2027, when three dated, mechanical items land in the same year: the 7.4 pt divestiture drag on reported sales ends, TOUCHLAND amortization laps, and MISS MOUTH'S turns cash-accretive.

| Metric | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 | 2025Q2 | 2025Q3 | 2025Q4 | 2026Q1 | 2026Q2 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Net sales ($M) | 1,503.3 | 1,511.2 | 1,510.6 | 1,582.0 | 1,467.1 | 1,506.3 | 1,585.6 | 1,644.2 | 1,469.3 | 1,530.0 | | Net sales YoY % | +5.1 | +3.9 | +3.8 | +3.5 | (2.4) | (0.3) | +5.0 | +3.9 | +0.2 | +1.6 | | Organic growth % | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 | (1.2) | 0.1 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 5.0 | 5.8 | | Adj gross margin % | 45.7 | 45.4 | 45.0 | 44.6 | 45.1 | 45.0 | 45.1 | 45.5 | 46.4 | 45.4 | | Adj GM YoY (bps) | — | — | — | — | (60) | (40) | +10 | +90 | +130 | +40 | | Adj EBITDA ($M) | — | — | — | — | 363.4 | 372.5 | — | — | 365.5 | 351.5 | | Adj EBITDA margin % | — | — | — | — | 24.8 | 24.7 | — | — | 24.9 | 23.0 | | Adj EBITDA YoY % | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | +0.6 | (5.6) | | Adj operating margin % | — | — | — | — | 20.6 | 21.0 | — | — | 20.6 | 18.8 | | Adj op margin YoY (bps) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | (2) | (220) | | Adj diluted EPS ($) | 0.96 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 0.77 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 0.81 | 0.86 | 0.95 | 0.89 | | Adj EPS YoY % | — | — | — | — | (5.2) | +1.1 | +2.5 | +11.7 | +4.4 | (5.3) | | Reported diluted EPS ($) | 0.93 | 0.99 | (0.31) | 0.76 | 0.89 | 0.78 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 0.91 | 0.85 |

The one chart that carries the story

What is driving each trend

Why the top line is accelerating (a real inflection, not a comp artifact). Volume, not price, is the source — total-company volume +4.3%, with Consumer Domestic volume positive for a third straight quarter after -3.1% in 2025Q1. It is distribution-gain and innovation-led: THERABREATH mouthwash share +4.5 pts to 25.3% (now the #2 brand nationally), ARM & HAMMER cat litter consumption +7.5% with share +0.8 pts to 24.5%, HERO outpacing the acne category, ZICAM. International inflected hard (CI organic +9.1% on +7.3% volume, a 550 bps two-quarter acceleration). E-commerce +22.7% and now 25.5% of consumer sales. Management has now twice said new products will be approximately half of 2026 organic growth, and claimed #1 across all of CPG on total distribution points gained YoY (roughly double peers on recent resets).

Why profit is decelerating despite it. Adjusted gross margin added only +40 bps versus +130 bps in Q1'26 — the tailwind is thinning, with transportation-cost increases and inflation named as the offsets. Marketing (+$8.2M, +40 bps) and adjusted SG&A (+220 bps on TOUCHLAND amortization) together consumed the gross-margin gain and $28.7M more. Below the line, other expense widened to $(23.2)M from $(14.0)M on lower interest income after cash was deployed into TOUCHLAND and MISS MOUTH'S.

The reported line understates the business by 7.4 points. The 2025 portfolio exits (VMS, Spinbrush, Flawless, showerheads) are still a 7.4 pt drag on reported revenue in Q2'26 — the single biggest reason reported (+1.6%) looks nothing like organic (+5.8%). That drag annualizes away entirely on 1/1/2027.

Beat rates and the magnitude trajectory

This is the single most important finding in the beat/miss work. The adjusted-EPS surprise has compressed monotonically for five quarters — +16.2% → +10.6% → +3.8% → +2.8% → +2.2% → -1.1% — while the sales beat has been expanding (+0.4% → +0.6% → +1.8%). Two mechanics explain it and they point in opposite directions: (1) benign — the Street has calibrated to a tightly-guided company, so the residual is small by construction; (2) not benign — the P&L below gross margin is absorbing more than the top line delivers. Adjusted operating income fell $28.7M / -9.1% on a +1.6% sales quarter. That is negative operating leverage, and it is why a 1.8% revenue beat did not convert.

Why adjusted EPS fell YoY despite the sales beat — derived bridge

| Bridge step | Pre-tax $ | Per share | Running | |---|---|---|---| | Q2'25 adjusted EPS | — | — | $0.94 | | Adj. income from operations -$28.7M YoY (marketing +$8.2M; adj SG&A +220 bps on TOUCHLAND amortization, more than offsetting +40 bps adj GM) | -$28.7M | -$0.09 | $0.85 | | Other expense $(23.2)M vs $(14.0)M — lower interest income | -$9.2M | -$0.03 | $0.82 | | Adjusted tax rate 20.3% vs 23.8% (-350 bps) | +$9.2M | +$0.04 | $0.86 | | Diluted WASO 238.2M vs 246.4M (-3.3%, buyback) | — | +$0.03 | $0.89 |

The entire YoY EPS decline is operating, and two of the four offsets are non-operating quality. Strip out the tax rate and the buyback and adjusted EPS would have been roughly $0.82.

The framing to note. Management guided Q2 adjusted EPS to $0.88 on 2026-05-01, roughly 9c below the then-prevailing ~$0.97 Street number (prior-quarter guide, Daloopa). The Street re-based down ~7c to $0.90 into the print, and CHD still landed 1c under the reset bar. The release benchmarks the quarter only to the company's own $0.88 outlook — "$0.89 exceeded the Company's outlook of $0.88" — and never addresses the $0.90 consensus. Combined with a Q3 guide of ~$0.89 against a $0.94 Street, the earnings line is being managed downward even as the top line accelerates.

The new guidance, in full

| Line item | Prior guide (Jan 2026 Investor Day, reiterated 5/1/26) | New guide (7/31/26) | Change | |---|---|---|---| | Reported net sales growth | -1.5% to -0.5% | Flat to +1% | +150 bps at mid | | Organic sales growth | +3% to +4% | +4% to +5% | +100 bps at mid | | Adjusted gross margin | ~+100 bps | +100 to +120 bps | +10 bps at mid | | Marketing % of sales | ~11% | At or above 11% | Higher (reinvestment) | | SG&A % of sales | Above 2025 | Above 2025 | Unchanged | | Adjusted tax rate | 21.5% | ~21.0% | -50 bps | | Reported EPS growth | not framed | +20% to +22% | New | | Adjusted EPS growth | +5% to +8% | +6% to +8% | +50 bps at mid; low end +100 bps | | Cash from operations | ~$1.150B | ~$1.175B | +$25M (+2.2%) | | Capex | ~2% of sales | ~$130M (~2% of sales) | Unchanged |

The single most important number in the guide

Translation: 100% of the top-line upside is being reinvested, not banked. That is exactly what management said they would do with the ~$15M tariff refund ("invest these proceeds in consumer-facing activities") and with marketing ("at or above 11%"), and it is exactly what they did in Q3 2025. Consistent behaviour equals credible management — but it means the EPS guide has no operating cushion.

FY2026 and Q3 2026 vs consensus

| Metric | New guide low | New guide high | New guide mid | Consensus | vs Prior | vs Consensus | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Q3'26 adjusted EPS | $0.89 | $0.89 | $0.89 | $0.94 | n/a (not pre-guided) | -$0.05 / -5.3% | | Q3'26 net sales ($M) | ~$1,570 | ~$1,570 | ~$1,570 | $1,572 | n/a | -0.1%, in line | | Q3'26 organic | ~+3.0% | ~+3.0% | ~+3.0% | not broken out | n/a | — | | FY26 adjusted EPS ($) | $3.74 | $3.81 | $3.775 | $3.76 | +$0.015 | +$0.015 / +0.4% | | FY26 net sales ($M) | $6,203 | $6,265 | $6,234 | $6,182 | +$93 (+1.5%) | +$52 / +0.8% | | FY26 organic | +4.0% | +5.0% | +4.5% | ~+3.5-4.0% | +100 bps | +50-100 bps | | FY26 cash from ops ($B) | ~$1.175 | ~$1.175 | $1.175 | n/a | +$25M | — |

Correction worth carrying: Benzinga printed the new FY sales guide as "$6.107-$6.168B" — that is arithmetically wrong, applying flat-to-+1% to the FY2024 base of $6,107.1M. The correct range is $6,203M-$6,265M off FY2025 net sales of $6,203.2M.

Implied trajectory — where the guide actually lands

| | 1H 2025A | 1H 2026A | 2H 2025A | 2H 2026E (implied) | |---|---|---|---|---| | Adjusted EPS | $1.85 | $1.84 | $1.67 | $1.90 - $1.97 (mid $1.935) | | YoY | — | -0.5% | — | +13.8% to +18.0% (mid +15.9%) |

| | Q3 2025A | Q3 2026E (guided) | Q4 2025A | Q4 2026E (implied residual) | |---|---|---|---|---| | Adjusted EPS | $0.81 | $0.89 | $0.86 | $1.01 - $1.08 (mid $1.045) | | YoY | +2.5% | +9.9% | +11.7% | +17.4% to +25.6% (mid +21.5%) |

Q4 2026 must deliver +17% to +26% adjusted-EPS growth for the FY guide to hold — and it is the one quarter with no explicit guidance attached to it. That is where all the risk sits. It is mostly mechanically supported: (1) TOUCHLAND amortization laps — it closed July 2025, cost Q2'26 +220 bps of adjusted SG&A, partially laps in Q3 and fully laps in Q4 (high confidence); (2) gross margin must accelerate — 1H26 adjusted GM ran +85 bps, so the FY guide of +100-120 bps requires 2H expansion of +115 to +155 bps (medium confidence, and note Q2 already missed its own ~50 bps guide by 10 bps); (3) buyback — WASO -3.3% YoY is ~3 pts of the growth, mechanical, but there was zero buyback in 1H26 so it decays into 2027.

One offset the framing above understates: Q3 carries a guided ~21.5% tax rate against the ~21.0% now embedded in the FY guide, so a slice of the FY raise is pushed into Q4 as a lower effective rate — worth roughly a cent and a half to the Q4 residual. The Q4 hurdle is real, but it is not purely operating.

Note the tension nobody has flagged: Q3 marketing is guided DOWN 80 bps YoY (~12.0% vs 12.8% in Q3'25) while the FY narrative is "increased brand investment." Q4 marketing therefore has to step up, which makes the Q4 EPS residual harder, not easier.

The organic guide, by contrast, has cushion

| | 1H 2026A | 2H 2026E (implied) | Q3 2026E (guided) | Q4 2026E (implied residual) | |---|---|---|---|---| | Organic growth | +5.4% (Q1 +5.0%, Q2 +5.8%) | +2.6% to +4.6% (mid +3.6%) | ~+3.0% | +2.4% to +6.1% (mid ~+4.3%) |

The FY organic guide bakes in ~180 bps of deceleration from the 1H run-rate, against (a) management's own statement that categories are "growing faster than initially expected," (b) distribution gains that land with a lag, and (c) MISS MOUTH'S, which sits outside the organic base and is growing consumption over 50%. Net: the organic guide has cushion; the EPS guide does not. That is the asymmetry to trade.

Management credibility scorecard

| Quarter | Own EPS outlook | Actual adj. EPS | Beat | Own organic outlook | Actual organic | Beat | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Q3 2025 | $0.72 | $0.81 | +$0.09 | — | +3.4% | — | | Q4 2025 | $0.83 | $0.86 | +$0.03 | ~+1.5% | +0.7% | miss | | Q1 2026 | $0.92 | $0.95 | +$0.03 | ~+3% | +5.0% | +200 bps | | Q2 2026 | $0.88 | $0.89 | +$0.01 | ~+3% | +5.8% | +280 bps |

Four for four on their own EPS outlook, and two for two on reported sales (guided ~-1%, delivered +0.2% then +1.6%). But the divergence is the point: EPS beat magnitude is compressing (+$0.09 to +$0.01) while organic beat magnitude is expanding (+200 to +280 bps). Management is converting an increasing top-line surprise into a decreasing earnings surprise — deliberately. That is the right long-run choice for a compounder, but under the deteriorating-beat-magnitude red flag it has to be tracked: if the EPS beat goes negative while the reinvestment continues, "buying growth" becomes "losing operating leverage."

| Metric | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 | 2025Q2 | 2025Q3 | 2025Q4 | 2026Q1 | 2026Q2 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Revenue YoY % | +3.8% | +3.5% | -2.4% | -0.3% | +5.0% | +3.9% | +0.2% | +1.6% | | Rev accel (bps) | -10 | -30 | -590 | +210 | +530 | -110 | -370 | +140 | | Organic YoY % | +4.3% | +4.2% | -1.2% | +0.1% | +3.4% | +0.7% | +5.0% | +5.8% | | Organic accel (bps) | -40 | -10 | -540 | +130 | +330 | -270 | +430 | +80 | | Adj EPS YoY % | +6.8% | +18.5% | -5.2% | +1.1% | +2.5% | +11.7% | +4.4% | -5.3% | | EPS accel (bps) | +570 | +1,170 | -2,370 | +630 | +140 | +920 | -730 | -970 |

Inflection points

1. 2025Q1 — the break. Revenue YoY snapped from +3.5% to -2.4% (-590 bps) and adjusted EPS YoY from +18.5% to -5.2% (-2,370 bps, the largest move in the window). Organic went negative for the first time.
2. 2025Q3 — the false dawn. Revenue YoY spiked to +5.0% (+530 bps), the high of the window, but organic only reached +3.4% and 2025Q4 gave it straight back (organic -270 bps to +0.7%). Comp-aided, not a trend change.
3. 2026Q1-Q2 — the real organic inflection. Organic +5.0% then +5.8%, the 8-quarter high, two consecutive quarters of acceleration (+430 then +80 bps). Reported revenue also turned up (+140 bps to +1.6%) as the divestiture drag rolls off.
4. 2026Q2 — the divergence. Adjusted EPS YoY flipped negative (-5.3%, -970 bps) in the same quarter organic hit its 8-quarter high. This is the defining feature of the print.

Trajectory verdict. A clean three-act structure: steady compounding through 2024, a break in 2025Q1 that flat-lined the whole of 2025 (organic averaged ~+0.8%), and a genuine 2026 third act that is volume-led — the quality of growth CHD did not have in 2025 when Domestic price/mix ran negative. On the trajectory-over-absolutes test the top line passes: two consecutive quarters of acceleration, improving mix of growth, raised organic guide. The earnings line fails the same test this quarter, and adjusted gross margin itself decelerated (+130 bps to +40 bps), so the margin tailwind that carried 2025Q4-2026Q1 is thinning. The Q3 guide is the single thing to hold management to: if adjusted EPS re-accelerates to +10% while organic holds near +3%, the Q2 dip was mechanical. If it does not, the reinvestment story becomes a margin story.

| # | Catalyst | Timing | Consensus expectation | Commentary | |---|---|---|---|---| | 1 | Q3 2026 print — the guide-down the Street has not absorbed | 2026-10-30 | Guide ~$0.89 (+10% YoY) vs Street $0.93-0.94 — a 4-5c gap the sell side must cut | Negative on the print, positive on the setup. CHD has guided +3% organic twice in 2026 and delivered +5.0% and +5.8%. If the pattern holds, Q3 organic lands 4.5-6% against a bar that has just been mechanically lowered | | 2 | 2026 innovation slate — new products = ~HALF of 2026 organic growth | Shipping now; fall shelf resets Aug-Oct 2026 | Embedded in the raised +4-5% organic guide; no separate consensus line | Six named launches (THERABREATH toothpaste + Complete Revitalizing Mint + portable sachets, ARM & HAMMER DUAL DEFENSE with Microban, HERO cleansers, HERO MIGHTY SHIELD). CHD says it was #1 across all of CPG on distribution points gained YoY — ~7% TDP lift on a 13-week average, 10-11% on recent resets, roughly double peers. Contracted shelf, not a hope | | 3 | MISS MOUTH'S MESSY EATER — brick-and-mortar rollout | Closed 2026-05-28; expansion over 12-18 months | Neutral to 2026 EPS; accretive to cash earnings from 2027 | ~$325M for ~$80M TTM sales / ~$28M EBITDA (~35% margin). #1 stain remover on Amazon; went national at Target April 2026. Consumption over 50%, share +~3.5 pts. Dierker: "we don't think we've been more excited about an acquisition in a long time" | | 4 | TOUCHLAND drag laps — the -$28.7M swing reverses | Anniversaries ~Q3 2026; clean comp in 2027 | Street models the FY26 SG&A burden; no visible consensus for the 2027 unwind | The entire reason adjusted EPS fell on a +5.8% organic quarter. A fixed, knowable, self-liquidating headwind. Still an active growth asset too: #2 US hand sanitizer, launched Canada + Middle East with Sephora, regulatory work underway to open "20, 30, 40 countries" | | 5 | Reported-vs-organic gap closes 1/1/2027 — the mechanical catalyst nobody discusses | FY2027 guide, late Jan 2027 | No 2027 consensus obtainable this run | The 2025 portfolio exits suppress reported growth by 7.4% in Q2'26 and 7.6% in 1H26. That drag annualizes away entirely, at which point reported converges up toward organic. A company printing ~1% reported today prints ~4-5% next year on the same business. Arithmetic, not forecast | | 6 | Middle East / oil-driven inflation and freight | Ongoing; oil base case $95-100/bbl | FY adj GM guide raised to +100-120 bps — management guiding through the headwind | Escalation ladder on the record: productivity first, then RGM/promo, then pricing — "no appetite for the consumer to bear something like this." Dierker sized the breaking point: productivity covers $25-30M, not $50-150M. CHD enters each year ~60% hedged. That threshold is the tripwire | | 7 | ~$15M phase II tariff refunds | 2H 2026 | Explicitly NOT an EPS catalyst — pre-committed to reinvestment | A marketing-spend catalyst, not an earnings one. It funds the Q3 step-up to ~12% of sales. Any model that flows it to EPS is wrong | | 8 | Next acquisition — capacity deliberately preserved | Any quarter | Not in any model by definition | Treasury stock purchases were $0.0M in 1H26 vs $300.0M in 1H25. CHD stopped buying back stock and spent on MISS MOUTH'S instead. Operating cash flow guide raised to ~$1.175B. That is a capital-allocation signal | | 9 | Buyback resumption — or the share-count tailwind fades | 2H 2026 / 2027 | Not separately modelled | WASO -3.3% YoY is a residue of 2025 repurchases. With zero buyback in 1H26 that tailwind decays through 2027 — a quiet ~3 pt headwind to 2027 EPS growth if capital keeps going to M&A | | 10 | FY2027 guidance + Investor Day and CAGNY | Late Jan 2027; CAGNY ~Feb 2027 | No 2027 consensus obtainable | The real event. Management must set FY27 against the Evergreen Model (3%+ organic, 8% EPS growth). With the divestiture drag gone, TOUCHLAND lapped and MISS MOUTH'S accretive, FY27 is the first clean year in three. Guide organic at or above 4% with EPS at or above 8% and the "portfolio actions are masking decline" bear case dies |

What management is saying that the Street is not yet crediting

Per the contrarian test — look for something management repeats as bullish that consensus does not price. Three candidates, ranked:

1. "New product launches this year are expected to account for approximately half of our organic growth." Repeated verbatim in Q1 and again in the Q2 release, paired with #1 in all of CPG on distribution points gained. The Street is modelling the +3% Q3 guide while the company has said twice that half the growth is contracted shelf space now resetting. The highest-quality disagreement in the name.
2. "So far, we're winning" on the no-pricing strategy. Dierker has said across two calls that CHD will not price through inflation, will offset via productivity, and expects gross-margin expansion anyway — then delivered +40 bps and raised the FY GM guide. Consensus generally assumes value-tier CPG must either price or lose margin. CHD is doing neither.
3. The 2027 convergence — divestiture drag ends, TOUCHLAND amortization laps, MISS MOUTH'S turns accretive. Three known, dated, mechanical items in one year.

The counter-case, stated fairly: adjusted operating income is down $28.7M YoY and adjusted operating margin down 220 bps to 18.8%. If the innovation slate under-delivers in 2H, CHD is a company with decelerating profit and an intact but expensive growth story. The Q3 print on 2026-10-30 is the first hard test.

Monitoring list — next 90 days

Method note. The Q2 2026 transcript does not exist publicly as of 2026-08-01 — eight sources attempted (FMP subscription-blocked; Motley Fool 404; Seeking Alpha, roic.ai and StockStory 403; Investing.com zero results; the MarketBeat instant alert is prepared remarks only; CHD's IR page has no transcript posted). "Most recent transcript" therefore resolves to the Q1 2026 call held 2026-05-01 — the last Street exchange before this print, which means every question in it can now be marked against what Q2 actually reported.

The question nobody asked — and it is the one that mattered

Zero of the fifteen Q1 2026 questions touched SG&A, acquisition amortization, or the adjusted-EPS bridge. Five touched gross margin. McChesney told the Street plainly on the Q1 call that "SG&A in the first half of the year is primarily growing versus last year due to the inclusion of [TOUCHLAND] SG&A and amortization expense," and guided Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.88 against $0.94 delivered a year earlier — a -6.4% YoY decline, stated out loud. Not one analyst asked about it. The entire Q&A was spent one line higher on the P&L, on a gross margin that was never actually in trouble.

CHD beat on sales by ~$27M and still printed adjusted EPS of $0.89 vs $0.90 consensus and $0.94 a year ago. The gross margin the Street interrogated five times expanded. The SG&A line nobody asked about deleveraged 220 bps and, together with $8.2M more marketing, wiped out the gross-margin gain, a 350 bps tax benefit and a 3.3% lower share count.

What to press management on — Q3 2026 call (2026-10-30)

1. TOUCHLAND consumption, share, and the "double-digit full-year growth" claim. Committed on the Q1 call, gave nothing in Q2. Ask for the same disclosure given to ARM & HAMMER, THERABREATH, HERO and MISS MOUTH'S. The #1 open item.
2. The adjusted-EPS bridge. When exactly does TOUCHLAND SG&A/amortization anniversary, and what is the FY27 SG&A ratio at steady state? Where does the FY +6-8% come from when Q3 is guided to only +10% and Q4 has to carry +17-26%?
3. Specialty Products. Guided ~5% organic at Q1; delivered +2.8%. Is the ~5% intact, and what changed?
4. Oil-derivative COGS sensitivity, third attempt. Refused twice on the Q1 call. Now that "transitory" has been proven right and the GM guide raised, there is every incentive to disclose it.
5. MISS MOUTH'S sizing inside the flat-to-+1% reported guide — and whether the TOUCHLAND SG&A pattern repeats.
6. OxiClean. Share declined in Q1'26 on club distribution loss and it does not appear in the Q2 Domestic driver list. Has it turned?

Eleven found across the Q2 2026 press release, the Q2 call highlights, and the Q1 2026 / Q4 2025 / Q3 2025 / Q2 2025 transcripts. Three are High.

The full list

| # | Contradiction | Type | Severity | |---|---|---|---| | C1 | "Confidence in continued momentum in 2H" vs a raised FY guide that requires 2H organic to decelerate ~180 bps | Intra-document | High | | C2 | Q1's 5.0% organic was explicitly ~3% underlying + ~2 pts of retail-inventory rebasing; Q2's 5.8% is "industry-leading" with no such caveat, against an equally destocked base | Cross-document | High | | C3 | "We have no plans to price" / "not driven on price" vs price/mix +1.5-1.8% in all three divisions | Cross-document | High | | C4 | "Exceeded its second quarter outlook" vs adjusted GM +40 bps against a guided ~50 bps | Cross-document | Med-High | | C5 | "Delivers strong second quarter results" vs adjusted operating income -$28.7M (-9.1%) and adjusted EPS -5.3% | Intra-document | Med-High | | C6 | TOUCHLAND SG&A framed twice as first-half-only, then still cited as driving above-2025 SG&A in 2H | Cross-document | Medium | | C7 | "The consumer remains resilient" vs "the consumer is pressed — and more pressed today than three, six, or twelve months ago" — same call, same speaker, 30 minutes apart | Intra-document | Medium | | C8 | E-commerce denominator silently switched from "% of global sales" to "% of total consumer sales" — on like-for-like the gain is ~120 bps, not ~250 bps | Cross-document | Med-Low | | C9 | The Q1 2026 transcript renders the 2025 acquisition under a different brand name nine times, where every SEC filing and every other transcript says TOUCHLAND. It occupies the identical slot in the identical sentences (closing the reported-vs-organic gap; driving 1H SG&A and amortization), and the alternate name appears in no CHD brand list. Assessed as a transcript-vendor substitution error, not a management contradiction — but it is a live data-integrity risk, since that transcript carries the only quarter-level colour on the asset. | Document integrity | Med-Low | | C10 | The same period's category growth is "around 2.5%" on one call and "around 2%" on the next; the FY26 starting assumption is later restated upward | Cross-document | Low | | C11 | FY25 operating cash flow "remains $1.05 billion" vs "we've increased our outlook from $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion" — a $150M raise described as $100M | Cross-document | Low |

Checked and cleared (stated for rigor): the cat-litter share sequence (24.6% then 24.5% with a larger YoY gain) reconciles off different prior-year bases; reported GM +240 bps vs adjusted +40 bps is the 2025 charge base, arithmetic ties; the International guide cut from ~8% to ~7% was explicitly disclosed with its cause; the VMS divestiture promise was kept; the tariff exposure-to-refund path is consistently narrated; the tax-rate revision was disclosed with a stated cause; and "$0.89 exceeded our $0.88 outlook" alongside a $0.90 Street number is not a contradiction — they are different benchmarks — though the review states plainly that CHD beat the guide and missed consensus.

Limitation. Historically the most material contradictions in CHD's documents surface in Q&A, not in prepared remarks or the release. With no Q2 2026 transcript, this pass is structurally incomplete on the quarter under review and should be re-run when the transcript publishes.

What CHD said about the world, and which way it moved

| Macro variable | Q1 2026 call | Q2 2026 (8-K + call) | Direction | Read-through | |---|---|---|---|---| | Consumer health | "backdrop continues to be mixed… sentiment pressured by inflation, borrowing costs" | Consumer spending "remained resilient" | Better | Modestly positive for staples volumes broadly | | Category growth | ~3.0%; "we were expecting closer to maybe 2% to 2.5%" entering the year | "growing faster than initially expected" | Better, accelerating | Positive for HPC category volumes — but not a proxy for peer growth; CHD is taking share | | Inflation / commodities | ~160 bps at Jan, +$25-30M Middle East shock to ~200 bps; oil base $95-100/bbl | "higher inflation and recent transportation cost increases"; still "transitory" | Worse, contained | Freight is the live cost line, not raw materials | | Interest rates | Other expense +$5.2M YoY on lower interest income | Other expense +$9.2M YoY | Drag widening | A balance-sheet story, not a rate call | | Tariffs | Phase I work referenced | ~$15M of phase II refunds in 2H, to be reinvested | Better | Refunds are flowing to CPG importers; expect peer one-timers | | Pricing power | "The worst thing to do is push price" | Price/mix +1.5% total (Domestic +1.5%, Int'l +1.8%, Specialty +1.5%), positive in all three divisions | Inflected, but not on list price | The most misread number in the quarter | | Industrial / ag | Specialty planned at ~5% organic FY26 | Specialty organic +2.8% on volume of only +1.3% | Worse, below plan | The one soft spot | | Channel | Online ~24% of consumer sales | E-commerce +22.7%, now 25.5% | Accelerating | Structural, not cyclical |

Companies named or identifiable

| Company | Relationship | Datapoint | Read-through | |---|---|---|---| | Kenvue (Listerine) — inferred | Competitor, oral care | THERABREATH share +4.5 pts to 25.3%, #2 nationally. Sequence: ~20.8% Q2'25 → 21.8% Q3'25 → 24.1% Q1'26 → 25.3% Q2'26 — gains accelerating. Category was recently shrinking | Materially worse for Kenvue oral care. 4.5 share points in a shrinking category is pure donation. CHD still holds under 20% of shelf vs competitors at 1.5-2x — the share gain came before the shelf reset caught up | | Nestlé (Purina) — named | Competitor, cat litter | "Nestlé was up dramatically as they are promoting their lightweight litter in a big way." CHD: consumption +7.5%, share +0.8 pts to 24.5%, gain accelerating vs Q1 | Worse for Purina. They bought promo, CHD didn't, and CHD still gained. Discounting is not defending the segment | | Procter & Gamble (Tide) — inferred | Competitor, laundry | A&H laundry consumption +4.1% vs category +2.7%, record share, on lower promotion; "all three competitors besides us are up" on promo | Worse for premium laundry. The value player is gaining record share while reducing promo. And "most competitors in value can't advertise at the same rate we can" — a squeeze from both ends on mid-tier | | Clorox (Fresh Step, stain removers) — inferred | Competitor | MISS MOUTH'S consumption +50%, share +3.5 pts, #1 stain remover on Amazon. CHD now owns both OxiClean and MISS MOUTH'S | Worse for Clorox on two fronts — litter share loss alongside Purina, and a consolidating stain-remover category | | Kenvue (Neutrogena), L'Oréal (CeraVe) — inferred | Competitors, acne | HERO extending from patches into cleansers; penetration still only ~1/3 of category | Worse for incumbent acne brands — HERO is moving into the core franchise where they make their money. The 2027 battleground | | Amazon — named | Customer / channel | MISS MOUTH'S is "the #1 stain remover brand on Amazon"; e-comm +22.7%; CHD optimising PDPs for Rufus and Sparky agentic search | Better for Amazon. CHD is now buying brands because they are Amazon-native | | Sephora / Ulta / TikTok Shop / Crocs — named | TOUCHLAND channels | Power Mist "#2 in sales on Sephora.com"; TikTok Shop "a major growth driver" | Better for specialty beauty and TikTok Shop — a staples company routing a premium brand through beauty retail and social commerce | | Freight carriers (ODFL, JBHT, XPO, KNX) — inferred | Suppliers | CHD missed its own ~50 bps GM guide by ~10 bps and named transportation | Better for carriers, worse for CPG shippers. Freight inflation is showing up in shipper P&Ls in real time | | Unilever / private label — inferred | Portfolio commentary | CHD's private-label exposure fell from ~12% to 5% after exiting Vitamins: "brands are having a very tough time in that industry. Competitive advantages that we thought were sustainable were not" | A warning label on branded-vs-private-label fights generally. The most candid admission in the transcript set |

Ranked takeaways for a generalist

1. Kenvue's Listerine is the clearest loser in the quarter — 4.5 share points surrendered YoY in a category that was recently shrinking, with CHD still under 20% of the shelf and a distribution reset still ahead of it.
2. Do not read CHD's +1.5% price/mix as a CPG pricing cycle. It is premium mix plus lower promo. The #1 value laundry player has explicitly refused to price, which caps the umbrella for everyone above it.
3. HPC category growth has been revised up twice in a row — from a 2.0-2.5% plan, to ~3%, to "faster than initially expected." Mildly positive for the whole staples volume complex.
4. Freight, not raw materials, is the live cost line. CHD missed its own GM guide by ~10 bps and named transportation. Watch 2H26 CPG COGS bridges.
5. Specialty Products is the only CHD series pointing down (+1.3% volume against a ~5% segment plan) — a small but clean negative read on dairy/animal-nutrition and industrial specialty-chem demand.
6. The interest-income drag is widening ($5.2M to $9.2M YoY) and is about a spent balance sheet ($254.8M cash vs $2.3B debt after two acquisitions), not about rates. The mid-cap staples cohort has burned through the interest-income tailwind that flattered 2024-25 EPS bridges.

The calibration that matters: CHD's categories grew ~3% while CHD grew 5.8%. The ~280 bps gap is share and distribution, and it is taken from someone. Do not extrapolate CHD's organic number onto peers — extrapolate the category number.

Organic growth is inflecting and adjusted profit is not, and this is the quarter they crossed. The demand evidence is strong and volume-led — +5.8% organic, +4.3% volume, share gains at THERABREATH, ARM & HAMMER litter and HERO, e-commerce at 25.5% of consumer sales, and a guide raised on sales, organic, gross margin and cash flow. The earnings evidence is not — adjusted operating income -9.1% on +1.6% sales, adjusted EBITDA margin -176 bps, an EPS beat streak of eleven quarters broken, and surprise magnitude down from +8% to +1.9% across three 4Q blocks.

Management is choosing that trade openly and has a four-for-four record against its own EPS outlook, which is the reason to give them the benefit of the doubt. But the FY guide now needs a Q4 that grows adjusted EPS +17% to +26% with no explicit guidance attached to it, and the entire FY EPS raise was the tax line. HOLD into the Q3 print on 2026-10-30, which is the first hard test: if adjusted EPS re-accelerates toward +10% while organic holds near +3%, the Q2 dip was a mechanical TOUCHLAND artifact and the trajectory is intact. If it does not, the reinvestment story becomes a margin story — and 2027, when the divestiture drag ends, TOUCHLAND laps and MISS MOUTH'S turns accretive, is the year that settles it.