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Church & Dwight


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2026Q1 Review (Claude)

2026Q1 Preview

CHD | Earnings Review

Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | 2026 Q1 reported May 1, 2026 BMO | Analysis date: May 5, 2026 | Daloopa company_id 325
Net Sales
$1.47B (+0.2%)
Beat ~$1.46B Street; surprised vs original outlook for decline; reported -8% optical (FX/divestiture); 7-of-8 L8Q sales beats
Organic Sales
+5.0% (vs +3% guide)
Volume +5.3% / price/mix -0.3% — VOLUME-LED quality; Q1'25 -1.2% trough → +5.0% Q1'26 = sharp re-acceleration; ~2pts retail destock lap, underlying ~3%
Adj EPS
$0.95 (+4.4% / +9% beat)
Beat $0.92 Street by +$0.03; 8/8 L8Q EPS beat streak; Adj GM record 46.4% (+130 bps YoY) — productivity/acq/FX offset 190 bps inflation/tariffs
FY26 Guide
REITERATED (no raise)
Organic +3-4%, reported -1.5% to -0.5%, Adj EPS +5-8%, GM +~100 bps; $25-30M Mid East oil-derivative inflation absorbs Q1 upside; Q2 EPS guide $0.88 ~$0.09 below ~$0.97 Street
High-quality double beat with reiterated (not raised) FY26 — middle east oil-derivative inflation absorbs Q1 upside. Net sales $1.47B (+0.2% YoY) beat ~$1.46B Street; reported sales -8% optical (FX + 2025 divestitures of VitaFusion, Spinbrush, Flawless). Organic sales +5.0% smashed +3% guide with volume +5.3% / price/mix -0.3% — volume-led re-acceleration from a 2025 trough (Q1'25 -1.2%, Q2 +0.1%, Q3 +3.4%, Q4 +0.7%). Adj EPS $0.95 (+4.4%) beat $0.92 by +$0.03 — extending CHD's streak to 8 consecutive Adj EPS beats and 7-of-8 sales beats over L8Q. Adj GM record 46.4% (+130 bps YoY) — productivity programs + acquisitions + FX more than offset 190 bps inflation/tariffs. Quality of organic upside: ~2 pts of the +5% was retail destock lap (Q1'25 inventory drawdown); underlying ~3%. Mgmt was explicit/transparent on this. Consumer Domestic organic +5.4% with TheraBreath, ARM & HAMMER, Hero, OxiClean leading; Consumer International decelerating (3.7% from 9-10% peak); SPD stable +3.1%. FY26 Guidance: REITERATED, NOT RAISED — organic +3-4%, reported -1.5% to -0.5%, GM +~100 bps, EPS +5-8%. Despite Q1 beat, $25-30M Middle East oil-derivative inflation absorbs the upside (Brent assumption $95-100). Q2'26 EPS guide $0.88 sits ~$0.09 below ~$0.97 Street — H1 is the near-term overhang; H2 leans on productivity, distribution gains (#1 in CPG with TDPs gained YoY, +10-11% in recent resets vs ~5-6% peers), and Touchland/TheraBreath/Hero activations. Inflation walk: 160bps → ~200bps headwind, offset by productivity to keep GM +100 bps guide. "No plans to push price — worst thing to do is push price" (CEO). First call with Dierker as CEO — confident, on the front foot. Touchland (acquired): Q1 all-channel consumption +12-13% (tracked-channel optics distorted by Q4 holiday + club timing); advertising and major partnerships skew 2H'26; international (Canada, Middle East) underway — the next Hero/TheraBreath-style growth driver. 6 contradictions identified: (1) HARD — vitafusion "green shoots" trajectory Q2'25 → low-20s declines through year-end, divested in 2025 portfolio actions; (2) HARD — Q2'25 "Evergreen alive and well" / "this year is an aberration" → Investor Day formal walk-down of category growth from 3%+ historical to 2% structural, requiring three internal growth initiatives to bridge; (3) Soft — "running VMS like we'll own it forever" while concurrently exploring three exit paths; (4) Soft — A&H laundry promo "right in line with history" (Q2) vs -400 bps YoY (Q3); (5) Soft — Tariff arc whipsaw $190M gross → $25M → "could be an opportunity" → $25-30M new commodity headwind 90 days later; (6) Soft — "No further portfolio plans" Q2 vs VMS sale + Touchland acquisition + specialty hair/skin pod reorg by Q4. Most consequential: structural Evergreen reframe (2026 EPS guide of 5-8% sits below 8% Evergreen number, making three growth initiatives — ARM & HAMMER $2→$3B, oral care via TheraBreath, international M&A — load-bearing rather than supplemental). Top catalysts: (1) Distribution-gain wave — CHD #1 in CPG on TDPs gained YoY; recent resets +10-11% (~2x peers); new product launches expected to drive ~half of FY26 organic growth; (2) Touchland ramp — Q1 +12-13% all-channel; ad + partnerships skew 2H'26; international rollout underway; the next Hero/TheraBreath-style growth driver; (3) GM defense vs Middle East oil shock — $25-30M FY26 inflation; ~100 bps GM expansion entirely via productivity, no pricing planned; Q1 GM +130 bps already de-risks the bridge. Watch items: (1) Q2 print — H1 overhang already telegraphed via $0.88 Q2 EPS guide vs ~$0.97 Street; (2) FY26 organic raise potential if H1 momentum continues; (3) Touchland 2H ramp from advertising; (4) ARM & HAMMER laundry detergent share with LESS promo while PG/Henkel promote MORE; (5) Brent crude trajectory and oil-derivative input pass-through; (6) M&A activity (active U.S./international with no specifics disclosed). Read: solid quality print with disciplined guide reaffirmation that creates upside potential in H2; stock optics challenged by Q2 EPS guide below Street and reiteration (not raise); structural Evergreen reframe is the longer-term concern requiring growth-initiative execution; private label / branded competitive dynamic favorable for CHD now (record A&H laundry share with less promo).
Key Metrics Trends
Metric Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026
Consumer Domestic net sales $1.2B $1.2B $1.2B $1.2B $1.1B $1.2B $1.2B $1.3B $1.1B
Consumer Domestic net sales YoY % - - - - -3.0% -1.4% +4.2% +3.7% -1.1%
Consumer International net sales $255M $264M $268M $285M $262M $278M $290M $300M $274M
Consumer International net sales YoY % - - - - +2.7% +5.3% +8.4% +5.2% +4.6%
Specialty Products net sales $83M $77M $72M $71M $75M $75M $76M $73M $78M
Specialty Products net sales YoY % - - - - -9.3% -3.0% +5.1% +2.8% +3.1%
Total net sales $1.5B $1.5B $1.5B $1.6B $1.5B $1.5B $1.6B $1.6B $1.5B
Total net sales YoY % - - - - -2.4% -0.3% +5.0% +3.9% +0.1%
Adj Gross Profit $687M $686M $680M $706M $662M $677M $714M $748M $681M
Adj Gross Profit YoY % - - - - -3.7% -1.3% +5.1% +6.1% +3.0%
CD Income from Ops $258M $290M $-98M $235M $245M $217M $217M $242M $240M
CD Income from Ops YoY % - - - - -4.9% -25.0% -322.7% +2.7% -1.9%
CI Income from Ops $36M $35M $-3M $15M $38M $32M $29M $17M $40M
CI Income from Ops YoY % - - - - +5.0% -7.2% -1060.0% +13.1% +5.8%
SPD Income from Ops $12M $12M $9M $6M $13M $12M $9M $7M $11M
SPD Income from Ops YoY % - - - - +10.3% -2.5% -3.3% +14.3% -14.8%
Adj Gross Margin % 45.7% 45.4% 45.0% 44.6% 45.1% 45.0% 45.1% 45.5% 46.4%
Adj Gross Margin % YoY chg (bps) - - - - -60 -40 +10 +90 +130
Adj Diluted EPS $0.96 $0.93 $0.79 $0.77 $0.91 $0.94 $0.81 $0.86 $0.95
Adj Diluted EPS YoY % - - - - -5.2% +1.1% +2.5% +11.7% +4.4%
Reported Diluted EPS $0.93 $0.99 $-0.31 $0.76 $0.89 $0.78 $0.75 $0.60 $0.91
Reported Diluted EPS YoY % - - - - -4.3% -21.2% -341.9% -21.1% +2.2%
_Trajectory: Sharp re-acceleration after a 4-quarter slump. 2025 saw US-consumer-driven organic reset (Q1 -1.2%, Q2 +0.1%, Q3 +3.4%, Q4 +0.7%); Q1'26 marks clean re-acceleration to +5.0% organic, driven by Consumer Domestic volume snapping to +5.5% (8Q high) and Adj GM expanding to 46.4% (also 8Q high, +130 bps YoY). Adj EPS grew +4.4% YoY to $0.95. Composition is volume-led with slightly negative price/mix — healthier mix than price-led growth. Caveats: (1) reported sales only +0.2% (FX + 2025 divestiture drag); (2) International price/mix turned negative for first time at -1.6%; (3) ~2 pts of the +5% was retail destock lap (Q1'25 inventory drawdown), underlying ~3%. One yellow flag: CD income from operations $240.2M declined -1.9% YoY despite revenue growth — likely tariff/marketing reinvestment offset to monitor. Verdict: volume-led re-acceleration on pristine GM expansion; underlying ~3% organic + 2pt destock lap is a healthy quality profile; H2 leans on productivity + distribution wins + Touchland ramp + Hero/TheraBreath momentum._

Beat/Miss

Guidance

Catalysts

Street Q&A

Contradictions

Read-Throughs

This Quarter vs Consensus
MetricConsensusActualVarianceRead
Net sales~$1.46B$1.469B+$9M / +0.6%Beat
Organic Sales+3% guide+5.0%+200 bpsSmashed guide
Volume+5.3%Volume-led
Price/mix-0.3%Slight drag
Adj EPS$0.92-$0.93$0.95+$0.02-$0.03 / +3-9%Beat — 8/8 L8Q streak
Reported EPS$0.91+2% YoYSolid
Adj GM %~45.5%46.4%+90 bpsRecord — 8Q high
Adj GM YoY chg+130 bpsProductivity/acq/FX offset 190 bps inflation
US Consumer organic+5.4%TheraBreath, A&H, Hero, OxiClean
Reported sales YoY+0.2% (vs decline guide)BeatOptical -8% from FX/divestitures
L4Q EPS beat rate4/4 = 100%Consistent
L8Q EPS beat rate8/8 = 100%Unbroken streak
L8Q sales beat rate7/8 = 88%Strong
Pattern: 8-consecutive Adj EPS beat streak; high-quality volume-led organic upside. CHD has now beat Adj EPS in every quarter for the L8Q period; sales beats 7-of-8. Q1'26 Organic +5% vs +3% guide is the cleanest beat of the cycle — volume +5.3% / price/mix -0.3% = healthy quality. Mgmt's variance commentary: "Distribution gains contributing ~half of FY26 organic; ~2 pts of Q1 was Q1'25 destock lap (underlying ~3%); productivity programs offsetting 190 bps inflation/tariffs; Touchland +12-13% all-channel; ARM & HAMMER record share with LESS promo while PG/Henkel promoted MORE; TheraBreath +3.5 pts to 24.1% (#2 mouthwash); first call with Dierker as CEO was confident." Three escalation tiers if Middle East oil headwind grows: productivity → RGM/promo → pricing (only if 2-3x current). Quality caveat: CD income from ops -1.9% YoY despite revenue growth — tariff/marketing reinvestment offset to monitor.
Guidance Deep Dive
MetricPrior (Feb'26)New (May'26)ΔRead
FY26 Organic Sales Growth+3-4%+3-4% REITERATEDMaintainedConservative — no raise despite Q1 +5%
FY26 Reported Sales Growth-1.5% to -0.5%-1.5% to -0.5%Maintained2025 portfolio divestitures drag
FY26 Adj GM Expansion~+100 bps~+100 bpsMaintainedQ1 already +130 bps
FY26 Adj EPS Growth+5-8%+5-8% REITERATEDMaintainedBelow 8% Evergreen target
Q2'26 Adj EPS$0.88~$0.09 below ~$0.97 StreetH1 overhang
Q2'26 Organic Sales+3% (lap of Q1'25 destock loses)Comp normalization
Middle East inflation absorption$25-30M FY26 (oil derivatives, transport)New headwindAbsorbs Q1 upside
Brent assumption$95-100/bblDisclosed
FY26 Inflation walk160 bps~200 bps+40 bpsProductivity offsets
Pricing actionNone plannedNone planned ("worst thing to do is push price")MaintainedVolume defense
FY26 capex / FCFStrongStrongMaintained
FY26 portfolio actionsVMS divested, Touchland acquiredLapping in late 2026 / early 2027Comp cleanup
M&A pipelineActiveActive U.S./InternationalMaintainedNo specifics disclosed
Tone: Confident reiteration; new CEO Dierker on the front foot but disciplined. Held FY26 guide despite Q1 beat — Middle East oil-derivative inflation ($25-30M) absorbs upside. Risk caveats: (1) Q2'26 EPS guide $0.88 ~$0.09 below ~$0.97 Street = H1 overhang already telegraphed; (2) Q2 organic guide +3% (loses Q1'25 destock lap); (3) Inflation walk increased 160 bps → ~200 bps but productivity offsets keep GM +100 bps guide intact; (4) FY26 EPS guide 5-8% sits below 8% Evergreen target — three growth initiatives (ARM & HAMMER $2→$3B, oral care via TheraBreath, international M&A) load-bearing rather than supplemental; (5) Three escalation tiers if Middle East oil headwind grows: productivity → RGM/promo → pricing (only if 2-3x current); (6) International price/mix turned negative for first time at -1.6%; (7) CD income from ops -1.9% YoY despite revenue growth = tariff/marketing reinvestment to monitor. 6 contradictions identified — pattern is portfolio repositioning + framing whiplash post Investor Day reset. Watch: H2 distribution wave; Touchland 2H ramp; FY26 raise potential if H1 momentum continues.
Upcoming Catalysts
#CatalystTimingWhat to WatchRead
1Distribution-gain waveFY26 ongoingCHD #1 in CPG on TDPs gained YoY; recent resets +10-11% (~2x peers); spread across portfolio; new product launches expected to drive ~half of FY26 organic growthHIGH — primary driver
2Touchland ramp2H'26Q1 all-channel consumption +12-13% (tracked optics distorted by Q4 holiday + club timing); advertising and major partnerships skew 2H'26; international (Canada, Middle East) underwayNext Hero/TheraBreath growth driver
3GM defense vs Middle East oil shockFY26$25-30M incremental FY26 inflation; ~100 bps GM expansion entirely via productivity, no pricing planned; Q1 GM +130 bps already de-risks the bridge; productivity playbook proven on 2025 tariff responseDe-risked
4ARM & HAMMER laundry detergent record shareOngoingRecord share with LESS promo while PG/Henkel promoted MORE; structural attack on premium laundry; goal $2B → $3B brandShare momentum
5TheraBreath toothpaste launchFY26+3.5 pts to 24.1% mouthwash share (#2); toothpaste line extension launching; rollout cadenceCategory expansion
6Hero (acne) growth durabilityFY26Continued share gains in acne care; Mighty Patch leadership; rollout internationalSustained
7M&A pipeline (active U.S./international)FY26No specifics disclosed; Touchland integration as model; balance sheet capacityOptionality
8FY26 organic raise potential at Q2/Q3Q2/Q3 printsIf H1 momentum continues, +3-4% organic guide could move to +4-5%; Touchland 2H ramp supportiveUpside catalyst
9Lapping 2025 portfolio divestituresLate 2026 / early 2027VitaFusion, Spinbrush, Flawless lap = clean comp arrivesOptical reset
10Brent crude trajectoryOngoingMgmt assumes $95-100/bbl; further escalation triggers RGM/promo (not pricing) tierWatch item
11Private label competitive dynamicOngoingARM & HAMMER share gains with LESS promo signal favorable competitive dynamic nowTailwind
12International recoveryFY26CI organic decelerated 9-10% peak → 3.7%; price/mix turned negative -1.6% for first timeWatch — soft pivot
13Toppik/Touchland transcription confusionNoteQ1'26 transcript repeatedly says "Toppik" where context (founder Andrea, $130M brand, recent acquisition, low household penetration, 2H ad ramp) clearly refers to Touchland — likely transcription artifactNote
Street Q&A
#Analyst (Firm)TopicMgmt ResponseQuality
1Bonnie Herzog (Wells Fargo)Pricing discipline + inflation playbook$25-30M Middle East inflation handled via productivity, no pricing planned; "consumer too pressed; worst thing to do is push price"Well Answered
2Anna Lizzul (BofA)Distribution / innovation flywheel#1 in CPG on TDP gains (~10-11% in recent resets, 2x peers); Q1 5% organic = ~3% base + 2pt retail inventory comp tailwind, NOT Q2 pull-forwardWell Answered
3Rupesh Parikh (Oppenheimer)Touchland (Toppik) trajectory + M&ATracked -20% misleading vs. all-in +12-13%; FY DD reiterated; M&A active U.S./international with no specificsPartial — no M&A specifics
4Robert Ottenstein (Evercore)Value-player pricing leadershipMgmt declined to comment on PG/Henkel pricing postureDeflected
5Olivia Tong (Raymond James)Oil $-sensitivity heuristicDeclined to give per-$/bbl elasticity; ranges $25-30M at $95-100/bbl BrentDeflected
6Lauren Lieberman (Barclays)FY26 organic raise potentialHeld +3-4% organic guide; H2 leans on productivity + distribution + Touchland 2H rampWell Answered
7Steve Powers (DB)Q2 EPS guide $0.88 vs Street $0.97 explanationQ1'25 destock lap loses; H1 inflation absorption; H2 productivity rolls in; deliberateWell Answered
8Andrea Teixeira (JPMorgan)ARM & HAMMER record share with less promoGoal $2B → $3B brand; structural attack on premium laundry; PG/Henkel promoting MORE while CHD wins shareWell Answered
9Peter Grom (UBS)TheraBreath market share + toothpaste launch+3.5 pts to 24.1% mouthwash share (#2); toothpaste line extension launching; rollout cadenceWell Answered
10VariousM&A specificsActive U.S./international, no specifics disclosedDeflected
11VariousInternational -1.6% price/mixFirst time negative; modest soft pivot; under monitoringWell Answered — candid
12VariousCD income from ops -1.9% YoY despite rev growthTariff + marketing reinvestment offset; expected to normalize 2HWell Answered
13VariousTouchland (Toppik) ramp 2H'26Advertising + major partnerships skew 2H; international rollout (Canada, Middle East) underwayWell Answered
14VariousFirst call with Dierker as CEOConfident, on the front foot; productivity + distribution + brand-building playbook intactWell Answered
Contradictions
#TopicSeverityStatement AStatement BWhy it's a tension
1vitafusion "green shoots" → divestedHARDQ2'25: vitafusion "green shoots" — single-digit declines, units positiveQ3-Q4'25: low-20s declines through year-end; divested in 2025 portfolio actionsTrajectory call did not hold. Divestiture validates that recovery thesis was wrong.
2Evergreen "alive and well" → structural reframeHARDQ2'25: "This year is an aberration / Evergreen alive and well" (3%+ category growth, 8% EPS algorithm)Investor Day: Formal walk-down of category growth from 3%+ historical to 2% structural; requires three internal growth initiatives to bridge to EvergreenMost consequential contradiction. FY26 EPS guide of 5-8% sits below 8% Evergreen number. Three growth initiatives (ARM & HAMMER $2→$3B, oral care via TheraBreath, international M&A) load-bearing rather than supplemental.
3VMS "running like we'll own forever" → exit pathsSOFTVMS commentary across calls: "running like we'll own it forever"Concurrently exploring three exit paths (sale, spin, JV)Framing inconsistency. VMS divested in 2025 portfolio actions.
4A&H laundry promo levelSOFTQ2'25: A&H laundry promo "right in line with history"Q3'25: Down -400 bps YoYDirection call did not hold within one quarter.
5Tariff arc whipsawSOFTAcross quarters: $190M gross → $25M after mitigation → "could be an opportunity"Q1'26: $25-30M new commodity headwind 90 days laterTariff narrative kept changing rapidly; productivity playbook proven but framing too optimistic at peak.
6"No further portfolio plans" → 3 actionsSOFTQ2'25: "No further portfolio plans"By Q4: VMS sale + Touchland acquisition + specialty hair/skin pod reorgStrategic pivot vs telegraphed posture. Indicates active portfolio repositioning.
Indirect Read-Throughs
NameRelationshipWhat CHD signaledRead-through
Procter & Gamble (PG)Direct competitor — laundry, oral careARM & HAMMER record laundry share with LESS promo while PG (Tide/Gain) promoted MORE; TheraBreath +3.5 pts to 24.1% mouthwash share (#2); structural attack on premium categoriesNEGATIVE — share donor
Colgate (CL)Direct competitor — oral careTheraBreath share gains in mouthwash; toothpaste launching; CL Total franchise pressureNEGATIVE
Henkel (HEN3.DE)Direct competitor — laundry (Persil)ARM & HAMMER record share with LESS promo while Henkel promoted MORENEGATIVE
Kimberly-Clark (KMB)Consumer staples peerCPG vol cycle inflected positive; haircut Q1'26 prints by 1.5-2 pts (destock lap); categories genuinely growing 2.5-3%+SLIGHT NEGATIVE — comp distortion
Clorox (CLX)Direct competitor — householdFresh Step litter share donor (CHD ARM & HAMMER cat litter winning); inflation pressure on commodity-heavy mixNEGATIVE — multiple fronts
Energizer (ENR)Battery / household peerProductivity-over-pricing posture sets peer bar; cycle-inflection signalNEUTRAL
Reynolds (REYN)Household peerSame — destock lap distortion + cycle inflectionNEUTRAL
Edgewell (EPC)Personal care peerProductivity-over-pricing posture; high-oil-input names with weak productivity pipelines at riskSLIGHT NEGATIVE
Kenvue (KVUE)Consumer health peerTheraBreath vs Listerine; Hero vs Neutrogena acneNEGATIVE — share pressure
Pfizer (PFE) consumer / Haleon (HLN)Consumer health peerVMS divested by CHD; Listerine pressured; oral care competitiveNEGATIVE — VMS, oral care
J&J / Bayer consumerConsumer health adjacentsOral care + acne competitive dynamicsNEGATIVE
Walmart (WMT)Major retailerDistribution shelf-reset winner; CHD #1 in CPG on TDP gainsNEUTRAL/POSITIVE
Amazon (AMZN)Major retailer (24% of CHD consumer sales)Significant channel exposure; productivity playbook criticalPOSITIVE — channel
Costco (COST)Major retailerMixed — Touchland strong; OxiClean lap reminderMIXED
Target (TGT) / Kroger (KR)Major retailersStandard distribution channelsNEUTRAL
Touchland (acquired)M&AQ1 +12-13% all-channel consumption; ad + partnerships skew 2H'26; international rollout underwayStrategic asset
VitaFusion / Spinbrush / Flawless (divested)M&ADivested in 2025 portfolio actions; comp lap late 2026 / early 2027Cleanup

Data sourced from Daloopa. Document search is currently in beta; transcript and filing snippets may vary.