CHD -- Q1 2026 Earnings Preview

Church & Dwight is a high-quality staples compounder, but Q1 is a real test of whether U.S. category softness is easing. Q4 net sales were $1.64B, gross profit was $753.8M, organic sales growth was 0.7%, and adjusted EPS was $0.86.

Management's FY2026 guide implies acceleration: reported sales of $6.1B to $6.2B, organic sales growth of 3% to 4%, adjusted gross margin expansion of 100 bps, and adjusted EPS of $3.71 to $3.81. Q1 guidance is lower than the full-year algorithm: reported sales down 1%, organic growth of 3%, and adjusted EPS of $0.92.

| Metric | FY2026 / Q1 Guide | Preview Read | |---|---:|---| | FY2026 reported sales | $6.1B to $6.2B | Reported growth still down due to exits/divestitures | | FY2026 reported sales growth | -1.5% to -0.5% | Needs organic growth to offset portfolio actions | | FY2026 organic sales growth | 3% to 4% | The main quality bar | | FY2026 adjusted gross margin | +100 bps | Margin expansion must fund marketing and EPS | | FY2026 adjusted EPS | $3.71 to $3.81 | Implies 5% to 8% growth | | Q1 organic sales guide | 3% | Tests whether Q4's 0.7% can accelerate | | Q1 adjusted EPS guide | $0.92 | Slightly above Q1 2025 adjusted EPS |

Q4 sales grew 3.9% reported, but organic growth was only 0.7%. Q1 needs to show a cleaner bridge from reported growth to organic growth after exits, divestitures, and acquisition effects.

Gross margin improved to 45.8% in Q4. The FY2026 guide for 100 bps of adjusted gross margin expansion makes Q1 margin one of the highest-signal items in the print.

Domestic is the swing factor. Consumer Domestic sales reached $1.27B in Q4, but domestic organic growth was slightly negative at -0.1%. International remained healthier with Q4 organic growth of 3.6%, while Specialty Products organic growth was 2.8%. The Q1 call should address category growth, household/personal-care share, and whether Touchland adds growth without distracting from core Arm & Hammer, OxiClean, Batiste, TheraBreath, and Waterpik execution.

| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Net sales | $1.47B | $1.51B | $1.59B | $1.64B | | Gross profit | $659.6M | $647.0M | $714.4M | $753.8M | | Organic sales growth | -1.2% | +0.1% | +3.4% | +0.7% | | Consumer Domestic organic growth | +3.0% | -1.0% | +2.3% | -0.1% | | Consumer International organic growth | +5.8% | +4.8% | +7.7% | +3.6% | | Adjusted EPS | $0.91 | $0.94 | $0.81 | $0.86 |

| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Read | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| | Reported sales growth | -2.4% | -0.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | Better H2, but not all organic | | Organic sales growth | -1.2% | 0.1% | 3.4% | 0.7% | Q4 slowed vs Q3 | | Product volumes sold | -1.4% | 0.8% | 4.0% | Not disclosed in Daloopa | Volume matters more than price now | | Pricing/product mix | 0.2% | -0.7% | -0.6% | Not disclosed in Daloopa | Less pricing tailwind than prior cycles | | Productivity gross margin benefit | 160 bps | 160 bps | 170 bps | Not disclosed in Daloopa | Supports FY26 margin expansion |

The bull case is straightforward: Church & Dwight has durable brands, a strong acquisition playbook, and a long history of combining moderate organic growth with margin improvement. The Q1 question is whether the U.S. consumer and category environment allows that algorithm to reassert itself. Q4 domestic organic growth of -0.1% is not consistent with the full-year 3%-4% organic-growth guide unless Q1 and Q2 improve.

The best evidence would be positive domestic volume, stable pricing/mix, continued international growth, and confidence that adjusted gross margin can expand by 100 bps while marketing remains adequate. The main risks are slower U.S. category growth, promotional pressure, Waterpik/VMS portfolio clean-up, Touchland integration, and tariff or manufacturing cost pressure.

| Catalyst | Timing | What Matters | |---|---|---| | Q1 organic sales | May 1 | Track against Q1 guide of 3% | | Domestic volume/share | May 1 | Improvement from Q4 domestic organic growth of -0.1% | | International growth | May 1 | Sustain Q4 international organic growth of 3.6% | | Gross margin | May 1 | Confidence in +100 bps FY2026 adjusted gross margin expansion | | EPS guide | May 1 | Reaffirm adjusted EPS range of $3.71-$3.81 / high | | Tariffs and costs | 2026 | Management framed a tariff impact in 2025; watch updated cost commentary |

| Quarter | Net Sales | Adjusted EPS | Quality Signal | |---|---:|---:|---| | Q4 2025 | $1.64B | $0.86 | Sales grew, organic growth slowed | | Q3 2025 | $1.59B | $0.81 | Best recent organic-growth quarter | | Q2 2025 | $1.51B | $0.94 | EPS strong despite flat organic sales | | Q1 2025 | $1.47B | $0.91 | Baseline for Q1 2026 guide |