Built by Grok 4.6 HighCCL | Earnings Preview
Carnival Corporation & plc reports Tuesday, September 29, 2026, before the open. Prepared Thursday, September 24, 2026. Fiscal Q3 ended August 31, 2026, and has not printed. Last reported quarter is FY2026 Q2, released June 23, 2026. Fiscal year-end is November 30.
| Q3 adj. EPS guide | ~$1.35 · −5.6% YoY · in line with FMP | Q3 CC net yield guide | +1.2% · −340 bps vs last Q3's +4.6% |
| Q3 adj. EBITDA guide | ~$2.88B · −3.8% YoY · first down peak quarter | FY2026 adj. EPS guide | ~$2.22 · +$0.01 vs March, buybacks only |
FY2026 Q3 is a yield-deceleration print inside a guided earnings decline, not a demand-breakout quarter. The June 23 outlook is a point, not a range, and it is still the live guide: adjusted EPS about $1.35, adjusted EBITDA about $2.88 billion, adjusted net income about $1,860 million, constant-currency net yield about 1.2%. Versus FY2025 Q3 that is −5.6% on EPS ($1.43), −3.8% on EBITDA ($2,993 million), and −340 bps of yield growth (delivered +4.6%). FMP, pulled September 24, sits on the same EPS dollar ($1.35, mean $1.355) and at $8.391 billion of revenue, +2.9% versus $8,153 million. Actuals are still null. Revenue is not guided; capacity +1.5% plus current-dollar yield ~1.3% compounds to about the same +2.8–2.9% stack.
Growth trajectory — still decelerating, and the guide extends the slope. Same-quarter Q3 constant-currency net yield has gone from +8.7% to +4.6% to a +1.2% guide, −410 bps then −340 bps. The quarters in between are not a straight line: FY2024 Q4 +6.7%, FY2025 Q1 +7.3%, Q2 +6.4%, Q4 +5.4% (a +80 bp bounce in the YoY rate versus FY2025 Q3), then FY2026 Q1 +2.7% and Q2 +2.2%, −420 bps versus FY2025 Q2. The Q3 point is another −100 bps versus that Q2 YoY rate, not a comparison of Q3 dollars to Q2 dollars. Full-year reported yield was cut about 100 bps in June, from 2.75% to 1.75%. Occupancy is no longer the algorithm: the peak quarter has been 112% two years running, and management described Q3 occupancy as relatively flat, with Europe given up a couple of points to hold price. Onboard was the faster FY2026 grower in Q2 ($2,390 million, +7.5% versus ticket +4.1%). That mix is at risk if fewer guests sail Europe. Fuel is the P&L item that turns a low-single-digit revenue setup into an EPS decline: Q3 fuel is guided at about $0.62 billion, +37% versus $451 million.
The beat habit is real and the quality has changed. Adjusted EPS has beaten FMP for 12 straight quarters and beaten Carnival's own prior-quarter guide wherever that guide is in Daloopa. Dollar beats narrowed in FY2026 (+$0.02 then +$0.07 versus the street; +$0.03 then +$0.07 versus the company's own guide). The yield beat collapsed from about +110 bps to +20 bps in Q2 (guide +2.0% versus actual +2.2%). Q2's $0.07 outperformance was mostly cost, and full-year EPS moved only a penny, to about $2.22, which Bernstein attributed to buybacks. Adjusted EBITDA for the year was trimmed again, to $7.11 billion, below FY2025's $7,182 million. FY2026 is a down-EBITDA year in the company's own guide. The street has accepted that cut (FMP FY EPS $2.222) and has parked a rebound in FY2027 ($2.607, +17%) that management has refused to guide.
What to watch on the 29th
- Guidance, not the penny. Hold, cut, or rebuild the FY stack: yield 1.75% constant currency (~2.25% normalized on the call), EBITDA $7.11 billion, net income $3.07 billion, EPS about $2.22. Holding EPS again with costs while cutting yield a second time is the low-quality pattern. Rebuilding yield toward the March 2.75% is what "transitory" has to mean in numbers.
- Q3 yield versus +1.2%, and Europe occupancy versus 112%. A +20 bp beat is the new pattern. A return toward +2% with occupancy still full would say the Europe pause was over-reserved. A miss, or onboard growth collapsing toward ticket, means the occupancy-for-price trade hit revenue.
- Fuel mark for Q4, not a Q3 surprise. The quarter ended August 31. Carnival does not hedge. A 10% fuel move on the remainder of the year is $102 million of adjusted net income. September crude is not the June spot of $713 per ton. JPMorgan (Benzinga, September 24) models Q3 fuel $640 million versus the $620 million guide — a penny or two — and puts the EBITDA gap in Q4.
- Cost timing. Ex-fuel unit costs are guided +2.8% constant currency, faster than yield. Part of the Q2 cost beat was timing. Another 150 bp of cost favorability is the clean path to an EPS beat with yield merely in line. A cost miss plus a yield miss is how $1.35 stops being the floor.
- 2027 deposits, not a 2027 guide. They declined a number in March and in June. The substitute is customer deposits versus the FY2025 Q3 base of $7,146 million — on the rounded series that quarter was $7.1 billion, +4.4% versus $6.8 billion — and whether "historic highs" language on 2027 price and occupancy survives. Loyalty accounting is a Q4 yield item, not this P&L.
Peers have already reported. Royal Caribbean raised FY adjusted EPS and kept constant-currency yield positive. Norwegian cut full-year yield to about −5% and guided its own Q3 yield about −8.9%. Viking's luxury book is still accelerating and is not the mass-market Med comp. Nothing between June 23 and this preview restated Carnival's yield, fuel, or EPS.
Carnival does not publish ranges. Every live line is an "approximately" point, so guide low = guide high = guide mid. Classification: conservative versus Carnival's own quarterly history, in line with the reset street, not aggressive. Eight straight quarters the actual came in above the prior-call EPS guide. A $1.35 print would be the first EPS meet. The street did not add a beat on top. Aggressive would be a high guide that then gets missed. That is not this setup. The sandbag is also deteriorating: the yield beat just went to +20 bps, and FY2026 is the first year in this window where the initial EPS and EBITDA guide was cut rather than raised all year and still beaten.
| Metric | June guide | FY2025 Q3 | YoY | FMP 9/24 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 adj. EPS | $1.35 | $1.43 | −5.6% | $1.35 | In line. Band $1.335–$1.365. Last year's Q3 guide was $1.30 and was beaten by $0.13. |
| Q3 adj. EBITDA | $2.88B | $2,993mm | −3.8% | n/a | FMP EBITDA does not reconcile to Carnival adjusted EBITDA. JPM $2.863B; a Street figure in the same note ~$2.914B. |
| Q3 adj. net income | $1,860mm | $2.0B | −7.0% | $1.881B | Guide −1.1% versus FMP. Not a gap the street left under the company. |
| Q3 CC net yield | +1.2% | +4.6% | −340 bps | ~+1.3% (JPM) | JPM "in line with the Street." Last Q3 guide was +3.5% and was beaten by +110 bps. This bar was cut, not stretched. |
| Q3 costs ex-fuel / ALBD, CC | +2.8% | n/a as a rate | — | n/a | Systematically high: five straight quarters ran about 150–210 bps better than the guide. Negative unit spread versus +1.2% yield. |
| Q3 revenue | Not Guided | $8,153mm | Street +2.9% | $8.391B | In line with +1.5% capacity and ~1.3% reported yield. Slower than Q2's +5.3% revenue print. |
| FY2026 adj. EPS | $2.22 | $2.25 | −1.3% | $2.222 | In line. Down from the December initial $2.48. The June cent versus March $2.21 is buybacks. |
| FY2026 CC net yield | +1.75% | +5.6% | −385 bps of growth | n/a | Cut from March +2.75%. Normalized ~2.25% adds back Arabian Gulf redeploy and Q4 loyalty. That gap is not the size of the cut. |
| FY2026 adj. EBITDA | $7.11B | $7,182mm | −1.0% | n/a | Cut twice: December $7.63B, March $7.19B, June $7.11B. FMP EBITDA is a different definition and is ignored. |
Whisper, not a forecast. Last-four average EPS beat versus the company's guide is about +$0.085, which mechanically puts Q3 near $1.44. Peak quarters have beaten by about $0.12–$0.13, but the last two prints were +$0.03 and +$0.07 and the structural cost save is already in the year. A setup-adjusted bar is closer to $1.38–$1.42. On yield, the last beat was +20 bps, not +110, so the regime whisper is about +1.4%, not a return to +2%. FMP at $1.35 is the guide. An in-line EPS print is a meet versus the street and a miss versus the eight-quarter pattern. The print that changes the story is the yield.
Full-year path into this call. December set yield ~2.5%, EBITDA $7.63 billion, net income $3.45 billion, EPS about $2.48, and called it a best guess. March raised reported yield to 2.75% and cut EPS to $2.21 because fuel overwhelmed operations. June cut yield another point, trimmed EBITDA, held net income at $3.07 billion, and added a buyback penny to EPS. Costs ex-fuel improved from 3.25% in December to 2.4% in June. That is the offset. It is not a demand raise.
YoY only. Q3 is not comparable to Q2. FY2026 Q3 has not printed; the last column of the quarterly table is the guide, not a result. Internal estimates are n/a. Cruise drivers above the consolidated line are ticket versus onboard, net yield, occupancy, capacity, unit cost, and fuel. North America versus Europe dollars are not a Daloopa series this pull; the call localized the dent in European deployments and called the Caribbean relatively stable.
Same-quarter and recent-quarter trajectory
| Metric | FY24 Q3 | FY25 Q1 | FY25 Q2 | FY25 Q3 | FY25 Q4 | FY26 Q1 | FY26 Q2 | FY26 Q3 guide |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($mm) | 7,896 | 5,810 | 6,328 | 8,153 | 6,330 | 6,165 | 6,663 | Not Guided |
| Revenue YoY | — | +7.5% | +9.5% | +3.3% | +6.6% | +6.1% | +5.3% | Street +2.9% |
| Ticket ($mm) | 5,239 | 3,832 | 4,104 | 5,430 | 4,053 | 4,023 | 4,273 | Not Guided |
| Onboard and other ($mm) | 2,657 | 1,978 | 2,224 | 2,723 | 2,277 | 2,142 | 2,390 | Not Guided |
| CC net yield | +8.7% | +7.3% | +6.4% | +4.6% | +5.4% | +2.7% | +2.2% | +1.2% |
| Occupancy | 112% | 103% | 104% | 112% | 102% | 103% | 104% | ~flat (call) |
| Adj. EBITDA ($mm) | 2,822 | 1,205 | 1,508 | 2,993 | 1,476 | 1,267 | 1,582 | 2,880 |
| Adj. EBITDA YoY | — | +38% | +26% | +6.1% | +21% | +5.1% | +4.9% | −3.8% |
| Adj. EPS ($) | 1.27 | 0.13 | 0.35 | 1.43 | 0.34 | 0.20 | 0.41 | 1.35 |
| Adj. EPS YoY | — | n.m. | +218% | +12.6% | +143% | +53.8% | +17% | −5.6% |
| Fuel expense ($mm) | 515 | 465 | 468 | 451 | 425 | 397 | 595 | 620 |
Revenue growth has been mid-single-digit for four straight quarters while yield growth has roughly halved and is guided to halve again. Q3 EPS growth has already decelerated from +47.7% in FY2024 Q3 ($1.27 versus $0.86) to +12.6% in FY2025 Q3, and the guide takes it negative. Q2 operating income was $851 million, −8.9% versus $934 million, because fuel overwhelmed flat ex-fuel unit costs. The peak quarter is where that margin math shows up in the year-over-year rate. YoY rows above are computed from the cited levels, not a separate Daloopa growth series, except constant-currency net yield, which is the company's reported rate. Adj. EBITDA YoY for FY2025 Q1, Q2, and Q4 uses prior-year levels that sit outside this column set: $871 million, $1,197 million, and $1,220 million. Revenue YoY for those same three quarters uses $5,406 million, $5,781 million, and $5,938 million. Adj. EPS YoY for FY2025 Q2 and Q4 uses $0.11 and $0.14; FY2025 Q1 is n.m. because FY2024 Q1 was a loss (−$0.14).
Five-year annual trajectory
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 guide |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($mm) | 1,908 | 12,168 | 21,593 | 25,021 | 26,622 | Not Guided |
| Revenue YoY | — | recovery | +77% | +15.9% | +6.4% | FMP +3.7% |
| Operating income ($mm) | −7,089 | −4,379 | 1,956 | 3,574 | 4,483 | Not Guided |
| Adj. EBITDA ($mm) | −4,129 | −1,684 | 4,231 | 6,110 | 7,182 | 7,110 |
| Adj. diluted EPS ($) | — | — | — | 1.42 | 2.25 | 2.22 |
| CC net yield | — | — | — | +11.0% | +5.6% | +1.75% |
| Occupancy | 56% | 75% | 100% | 105% | 105% | Not Guided |
The recovery math is over. Occupancy stopped rising in FY2024 (flat at 105% versus 105%). FY2025 versus FY2024: operating income +25.4% ($4,483 million versus $3,574 million), adjusted EBITDA +17.5% ($7,182 million versus $6,110 million), adjusted EPS +58% ($2.25 versus $1.42), and constant-currency yield growth −540 bps (+5.6% versus +11.0%). Yield growth is guided to +1.75% for FY2026. Revenue growth decelerated from +15.9% to +6.4%, and FMP has FY2026 revenue at $27.61 billion, about +3.7%. FY2027 FMP revenue is $28.58 billion, only +3.5% versus the FY2026 street, while FY2027 EPS of $2.607 is +17%. The street's rebound is operating leverage and a better fuel year, not a return to +5–6% yields. FY2027 is not guided.
(a) Current quarter — FY2026 Q3
| Metric | Guide low | Guide high | Guide mid | Consensus | Internal | % diff / vs last year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adj. diluted EPS | $1.35 | $1.35 | $1.35 | $1.355 | n/a | −0.4% vs street; −5.6% vs $1.43 |
| Adj. EBITDA | $2.88B | $2.88B | $2.88B | n/a | n/a | −3.8% vs $2,993mm |
| Adj. net income | $1,860mm | $1,860mm | $1,860mm | $1.881B | n/a | −1.1% vs street; −7.0% vs $2.0B |
| CC net yield | +1.2% | +1.2% | +1.2% | n/a (JPM +1.3%) | n/a | −340 bps vs +4.6% |
| Net yield, current $ | +1.3% | +1.3% | +1.3% | n/a | n/a | FX is only ~10 bps of the bridge |
| Costs ex-fuel / ALBD, CC | +2.8% | +2.8% | +2.8% | n/a | n/a | Cost growing faster than yield. Current-dollar guide is the same +2.8% |
| Occupancy | Not Guided | Not Guided | ~flat (call) | n/a | n/a | vs 112%. Europe down a couple of points, not fleet-wide |
| ALBDs | 24.9mm | 24.9mm | 24.9mm | n/a | n/a | +1.5% vs 24.6mm |
| Fuel expense | $0.62B | $0.62B | $0.62B | JPM $640mm | n/a | +37% vs $451mm at $812/ton |
| Revenue | Not Guided | Not Guided | Not Guided | $8.391B | n/a | +2.9% vs $8,153mm. Range $8.290–$8.461B |
| Gross / operating margin | Not Guided | Not Guided | Not Guided | n/a | n/a | FY25 Q3 gross margin 37.4%; operating income $2,271mm, margin 27.9%, +27 bps YoY. Do not use FMP EBIT. |
Diluted shares in the Q3 outlook are 1,377 million. Depreciation is $0.74 billion. Net interest is $0.27 billion. Those are planning assumptions, not targets. Ticket and onboard dollars are not guided. Last Q3, ticket $5,430 million (+3.6%) outgrew onboard $2,723 million (+2.5%). If that mix returns because Europe sailed less full, the commercial program did not outrun the occupancy cut.
(b) FQ+1 — FY2026 Q4, quarter ending November 30
Not guided as its own quarter. Q4 will be issued on September 29. What exists today is call color plus an arithmetic residual of the full-year points after Q1–Q2 actuals and the Q3 guide. The residual is not company guidance. Share count differs by quarter, so the EPS identity is approximate. Weinstein: reported Q4 yield looks a bit softer than Q3; normalized for Carnival Cruise Line loyalty, which sits entirely in Q4, yield is closer to 2%.
| Metric | Guide | Arithmetic residual | FMP | Internal | Vs FY2025 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adj. EPS | Not Guided | ~$0.26 | $0.250 | n/a | Street −26% vs $0.34. Band $0.198–$0.302 |
| Adj. EBITDA | Not Guided | ~$1.38B | n/a | n/a | Residual ~−6% vs $1,476mm. JPM Q4 EBITDA $1.336B vs a $1.369B street figure, on fuel |
| Adj. net income | Not Guided | ~$366mm | $347mm | n/a | Residual ~−19% vs $0.45B |
| Revenue | Not Guided | — | $6.421B | n/a | +1.4% vs $6,330mm |
| CC net yield | Not Guided | — | n/a | n/a | Call: a bit below Q3's 1.2% reported; normalized closer to 2% after loyalty. JPM +1.6% |
Residual math, labeled as arithmetic only: FY EPS $2.22 minus Q1 $0.20 minus Q2 $0.41 minus Q3 $1.35 is about $0.26. The year is not hiding a fat Q4. If Q3 beats by the old ~$0.10, either Q4 is weaker than this residual or the full-year EPS floor gets lifted. June's one-cent "raise" did not do that. Princess calls at Celebration Key begin in this quarter (November), and the loyalty accounting hit to reported yield lands here. Do not treat a Q4 loyalty comment as a Q3 miss.
(c) Full-year guide and FY2027
| Metric | Guide mid | Consensus | Internal | % diff / trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 adj. EPS | $2.22 | $2.222 | n/a | In line (−0.1%). −1.3% vs $2.25 |
| FY2026 adj. net income | $3.07B | $3.108B | n/a | −1.2% vs street. −1% YoY vs $3.1B. Held flat versus March. The −11% is versus the December guide $3.45B, not versus last year |
| FY2026 adj. EBITDA | $7.11B | n/a | n/a | −1.0% vs $7,182mm |
| FY2026 CC net yield, reported | +1.75% | n/a | n/a | −100 bps vs March +2.75%. Normalized ~2.25% (call) |
| FY2026 costs ex-fuel, CC | +2.4% | n/a | n/a | Improved from March +3.1%. Normalized ~1.3% (call) is the offset to the yield cut |
| FY2026 fuel / capacity | $2.12B at $713/ton; capacity +1.0% | n/a | n/a | Fuel about +17% vs FY2025 $1,808mm. Capacity vs 96.5mm ALBDs |
| FY2026 revenue | Not Guided | $27.61B | n/a | +3.7% vs $26,622mm. Current-dollar yield guide +3.2% |
| FY2027 revenue / EPS | Not Guided | $28.58B / $2.607 | n/a | +3.5% revenue, +17% EPS vs the FY2026 street. Only color: ~0.4 pt loyalty yield headwind for the year (call) |
Management enters September 29 having protected the full-year earnings number and cut the yield algorithm. On June 23, Weinstein and Bernstein still sounded like operators who beat their own quarter — another record yield quarter, adjusted net income ahead of the March guide by $100 million — but the quality of the beat had flipped from revenue to cost. The full-year constant-currency yield guide went to 1.75% from 2.75%. They called the hit transitory and entirely Europe and the Middle East. Full-year adjusted EPS was lifted only a penny, and only because of buybacks. Adjusted EBITDA was trimmed to $7.11 billion. The quarter now being reported was set, at that same print, below last year's $1.43. Confidence in the multi-year PROPEL story was restated. Confidence in the near-term yield path was explicitly revised down.
Tone across four calls, two steps down in the quality of the year.
- FY2025 Q3 (September 29, 2025) — confident, at the peak. Record revenue, yields, and EBITDA. Adjusted net income $2.0 billion. Same-ship yield +4.6%. They raised the FY2025 outlook. Returns were called a waypoint, not a destination.
- FY2025 Q4 (December 19, 2025) — confident, with an early-guide hedge. Full-year yields up more than 5.5%, bottom line more than 30% above the initial guide. They set FY2026 and called it a best guess, not a floor. Bernstein expected higher yield increases in the back half than the first half. That sentence did not survive.
- FY2026 Q1 (March 27, 2026) — operationally confident, fuel-shocked. Yields +2.7% beat the December guide. They raised the yield guide and cut EPS because a fuel headwind overwhelmed a smaller operational improvement. The conflict was "early" and "not much to talk about" on the Med. Caribbean and Alaska were stronger.
- FY2026 Q2 (June 23, 2026) — defensive, not broken. Another record quarter "despite extreme geopolitical volatility, consumer sentiment at historically low levels, and unusually high fuel prices," then the cut. The moderation was "already proving to be transitory." Under questioning the confidence got more specific and less expansive. They had not expected the Strait of Hormuz disruption to last the whole second quarter. Europe occupancy expectations were taken down a couple of points. 2027 was refused. Delivered first-half yield was +2.7% then +2.2%. The Q3 guide is +1.2%. The back half is now the weaker half. The adjectives stayed constructive. The guidance path did not.
Where language and numbers conflict. Management is repeating that 2027 Europe is already reaccelerating — mid-teens bookings at higher prices since the start of Q2, "almost a doubling down" while 2026 paused — and that the 2026 dent does not change the trajectory. The street's FY2026 EPS sits on the cut and Q3 EPS sits on $1.35, with no beat in the consensus. That is the gap a management team with an eight-for-eight quarterly beat record is asking the market to underwrite: a qualitative reversal that the one metric where the beat just vanished does not underwrite. If the reversal is real, +1.2% is a low bar. If July and August did not reverse, +1.2% is the forecast, and "transitory" is next year's argument, which they declined to guide.
Assumptions that have to be true for the guide to be merely conservative. Europe close-in from late June through August did not get worse than the occupancy haircut already taken. Consolidated Q3 occupancy holds roughly flat versus 112%, so onboard is not hit by a body-count decline on top of slower ticket yields. Caribbean and Alaska stay "status quo." The structural cost program sticks, and the timing piece of the Q2 cost beat does not reverse hard enough to eat the EPS floor. Fuel and FX stay near the June spot embedding. At the June print, 93% of 2026 was booked, at record prices for the remaining quarters, so close-in cannot rewrite the year, but it can rewrite Q3 and Q4. The 100 bp yield revision was described as living in the unsold portion.
What changed after the guide, and what did not. No 8-K, preannounce, or conference transcript in the Daloopa index restates yield, EBITDA, or EPS. S&P's June 25 upgrade to BBB− explicitly built in the softer second half and the lower yield guide. It confirms the balance sheet. It does not tighten the yield outlook. Royal Caribbean (July 28) raised FY adjusted EPS to $17.73–$17.87 and kept full-year constant-currency yield at 1.75–2.25%, with a modest Europe hit weighted to its Q3. Norwegian (July 30) beat its own quarter and still guided Q3 constant-currency yield at about −8.9% and the year at about −5%, citing the same North American guest flying to Europe. Carnival's +1.2% is the bull case relative to Norwegian, not relative to Carnival's own history. The conflict did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz on the June timetable. Brent's September rebound is a Q4 mark, because Q3 consumption was largely already purchased by August 31. This preview does not claim a Q3 fuel beat. The sensitivity that matters on the call is $102 million of adjusted net income per 10% fuel move over the rest of the year, against a June FY mark of $713 per ton. The report-day reaction on June 23 was −4.87% close-to-close (Daloopa prices, company_id 312). The market paid for the yield cut, not for the cost-driven beat.
Ranked by information value on September 29. "What consensus believes" is this quarter, not FY2027. FMP does not publish yield, occupancy, or ex-fuel unit cost. Named broker figures are single notes, not a Visible Alpha distribution.
| Catalyst | Entering the print | What consensus believes | Surprise skew |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. CC net yield | Delivered +4.6%, then +2.7%, then +2.2%. Q3 guide +1.2%. FY cut to +1.75%. Last yield beat was +20 bps. | JPM +1.3%, "in line with the Street." The old ~100 bp beat is no longer in the number. Book was 93% sold in June. | Negative if the guide is merely hit. A print near +2.2% with occupancy still full would say the Europe pause was over-reserved. At or below +1.2% confirms the deceleration is not done. |
| 2. Adj. EPS and EBITDA | Guide $1.35 and $2.88B versus $1.43 and $2,993mm. First guided down YoY EBITDA quarter of the recovery tape. | FMP EPS $1.35, dead on the guide. BofA also $1.35. JPM EBITDA $2.863B, slightly under the guide. Revenue $8.391B, +2.9%. | Two-sided on EBITDA, pinned on EPS. A beat now has to come from cost or fuel. There is no street gap under the guide. |
| 3. Europe occupancy | Occupancy expectations for Europe cut a couple of points to protect price. Onboard is hit because fewer guests are aboard. Consolidated peak has been 112% twice. | No published occupancy estimate. The +1.2% yield guide is the occupancy decision. RCL called its Europe hit modest. NCLH guided Q3 yield about −8.9%. | The unmodelled tell. Still ~112% means they held price without giving up load. A visible step-down plus slower onboard says the trade cost revenue, not just mix. |
| 4. Fuel, unhedged | Q2 fuel $595mm at $793/ton, +29% on price. Q3 guide $0.62B at $812/ton. No hedge. June net fuel and FX versus March was under $0.01 of FY EPS. | JPM $640mm versus $620mm. BofA: the Brent move since August hits Q4 more than Q3. FMP has no fuel line. | Small for Q3 EPS, large for the Q4 outlook. A $20mm miss is a penny or two. Resetting the $713/ton FY mark, or walking the $7.11B EBITDA guide, is the event. Sensitivity $102mm per 10%. |
| 5. Unit costs ex-fuel | Q2 was essentially flat and ~250 bps better than the March guide, worth about $0.05, part timing and part structural ($0.06 in the FY guide). Q3 guide +2.8% because destination opex, timing, and Middle East logistics sit in the quarter. | No separate street print. The $1.35 only works if +2.8% cost holds while yield is +1.2%. That is a negative unit spread. Q2 was the opposite. | Positive if they beat cost again. Another 100 bp of favorability is the cleanest EPS beat with yield in line. A cost print above +2.8% with yield at +1.2% breaks the offset story. |
| 6. Deposits and the 2027 book | Deposits $8,984mm at Q2, +5.3% vs $8,530mm. Seasonal Q3 decline is normal: FY25 Q3 was $7,146mm. 2027 volumes and price were ahead, Europe up mid-teens at higher prices. They will not guide FY2027. | FMP FY2027 EPS +17% on only +3.5% revenue. The street believes an earnings reacceleration, not a revenue reacceleration. No deposit estimate. | Judge the YoY change, not the seasonal drop from $9.0B. A flat or down YoY deposit print is the cut to the FY2027 narrative. |
| 7. Capacity and cash | Q3 capacity +1.5%, FY +1.0%. New Princess ships deliver in the 2030s. Net debt / adj. EBITDA 3.1x at Q2 vs 3.4x at FY2025. Buybacks: do not annualize the $450mm done by June. | The +2.9% revenue estimate is low capacity plus low yield. It is not underwriting RCL-style capacity (+6.6% with Q3 yields about flat). FY EPS already includes the buyback penny. | Small for the quarter. The test is whether yield stays positive with only +1.5% capacity. Leverage up from 3.1x would mean fuel and weaker deposits consumed the peak-quarter cash. |
How to keep score. A print the street can live with is CC yield about +1.0% to +1.5%, EPS near $1.35, EBITDA about $2.85–2.91 billion, FY EPS held at $2.22, Europe still positive, deposits up year over year on the $7.1 billion base, and fuel within a couple of pennies of $620 million. A print that extends the deceleration is yield below +1.2% or Europe negative, another FY yield or EBITDA cut, occupancy visibly below 112% with onboard growth collapsing, or a Q4 fuel reset large enough to threaten $7.11 billion. A print that revives the old pattern is yield near +2% with occupancy still about 112%, ex-fuel unit costs better than +2.8%, onboard still outgrowing ticket, and deposit growth still mid-single-digit year over year.
Window is June 24 through September 24, after the Q2 print and before this call. The scheduling release, consensus revisions, and the price are excluded. No figure in this section is a reported financial, so none carries a Daloopa id. The absence is the news: no booking update, no fuel-assumption update, no occupancy update, and no change to the full-year yield or EPS framework. Ninety-three days after management said the Med pause was already turning, the company has not repeated that claim outside the earnings script.
| Date | Item | Why it matters for this print | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | S&P upgrades the issuer to BBB− from BB+. Outlook stable. Second investment-grade rating after Fitch's May affirmation. | Balance-sheet event, not a demand datapoint. S&P cited the 93% booked position and explicitly built in the softer second half, the lower yield guide, and elevated fuel. Collateral release follows. It does not refresh the June fuel or yield deck. | S&P Global Ratings, Jun 25, 2026 |
| Jun 29 / Jul 19 | Celebration Key pier extension: four ships, 13,000+ guests a day. Anniversary count about 2.4 million guests in year one, versus a ~2.5 million pre-count. Year-two hope still ~3.5 million. | The private-island bet is filling. Routine three- and four-ship days and the Princess and AIDA rotation start after August 31, so the step-up is mostly outside the quarter being reported. Not a yield update. The 2.4 versus 2.5 million gap is not a demand signal. | Carnival PR Newswire, Jun 29; Carnival Cruise Line newsroom, Jul 19–20 |
| Jul 9 | Board declares another $0.15 quarterly dividend. Record August 7, payable August 28. | Third quarter at the rate reinstated in December 2025. Not a raise. No post-June buyback tally was released after the "over $450 million / 17 million shares" figure. | Carnival PR Newswire, Jul 9; Seatrade, Jul 10 |
| Jul 31 / Aug 5 | Moody’s reported to have notched about $3.1 billion of notes from Baa2 to Ba1 after collateral fell away. Corporate family rating described as still Ba1, positive. Company then called all $500 million of 7.000% 2029 notes at 103.50, redeemed August 15. | Credit cleanup, not a fallen angel, if the Moody’s secondary account is right. The call premium is $17.5 million. Directionally it supports the deleveraging path. It does not change Q3 yields, costs ex-fuel, or occupancy. Treat the Moody’s notch as single-source until the primary text is in hand. The 8-K is the company's confirmation of the call. | Börse Express citing Moody’s, Jul 31; Carnival Form 8-K, Aug 5 |
| Aug 6 | New GHG-intensity target: 25% below 2019 by 2029. Prior 20% by 2030 was hit in 2025. Fuel-efficiency work "on track" to save about $650 million in 2026 versus 2019. | Restatement of the consumption lever, not incremental EPS versus the June guide. The $650 million is versus 2019. It does not offset a spot-price reset. No absolute-emissions commitment without low-carbon fuel clarity. | Carnival PR Newswire, Aug 6; Seatrade, Aug 7 |
| Sep 1 | Carnival Rewards replaces VIFP. Status is spend-based. Lifetime status mostly ends. Opt-in required. Live September 1. | Most important brand item in the window, and it does not touch Q3 revenue — the quarter closed August 31 under VIFP. It matches the yield strategy (reward spend, not occupancy days). Retention and redemption cost are unquantified. That belongs on the call, not in this P&L. | Carnival Cruise Line PR Newswire, Sep 1; The Points Guy; NerdWallet |
| Jul 10 / Sep 10 | Steel cut for Carnival Destiny (delivery summer 2029). Bookings open for Carnival Tropicale, first sailing April 2028 from Galveston. | Confirms capacity stays back-end loaded. Near-term ALBDs do not move. A 2028 booking curve is not a read on summer 2026 close-in demand. | Seatrade and Fincantieri, Jul 10; carnival-news.com, Sep 10 |
Red-flag checklist. Guidance not withdrawn. No CEO or CFO change. No earnings-date slip — the September 15 notice set Tuesday, September 29, at 10:00 a.m. ET, and IR still matches. No post-print open-market sale by the CEO or CFO turned up; Arison's August 25 Form 4 activity was described as a donation, not a sale, and is not treated as a signal. Competitor weakness specific to this window was not a new Carnival print. The Med and fuel pressure was already in the June outlook. The live negative is unresolved, not new: European close-in demand and unhedged fuel, with no interim evidence either way. Industry bunker and Hormuz headlines after August 31 matter only if management marks the second-half fuel deck on the call.
Carnival is a consistent adjusted-EPS beater and a deteriorating revenue surprise. Versus FMP, adjusted EPS is 12-for-12 from FY2023 Q3 through FY2026 Q2. Revenue is 7-for-12 on a strict sign (58%), and the last four quarters are 2 beats and 2 misses, with the average revenue surprise falling from about +1.0% to 0.0%. Dollar EPS beats are still positive but smaller in FY2026 (+$0.02 in Q1, +$0.07 in Q2) than the FY2025 run-rate of about +$0.10 to +$0.13. The seasonal Q3 dollar EPS beat has been +$0.11 in each of the last three Q3s, while the Q3 revenue beat has shrunk from +2.7% to +0.6%. FY2026 Q3 has not printed. Do not score it.
FMP epsActual matches Daloopa adjusted EPS, not GAAP. FY2026 Q2 GAAP was $0.39 versus adjusted $0.41. Surprise percentages below use unrounded FMP estimates. Two early revenue actuals differ from FMP by $1 million; surprises use Daloopa. Cells marked with a dagger had consensus below $0.10. Those percent surprises are not comparable. EPS color follows the dollar beat so the FY2026 narrowing is visible. Revenue color follows the percent.
| Metric | FY23 Q3 | FY23 Q4 | FY24 Q1 | FY24 Q2 | FY24 Q3 | FY24 Q4 | FY25 Q1 | FY25 Q2 | FY25 Q3 | FY25 Q4 | FY26 Q1 | FY26 Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue vs FMP | +2.7% | −0.7% | −0.3% | +1.8% | +0.9% | 0.0% | +1.1% | +2.0% | +0.6% | −0.6% | +0.4% | −0.4% |
| Adj. EPS $ vs FMP | +$0.11 | +$0.05 | +$0.04 | +$0.10 | +$0.11 | +$0.08 | +$0.10 | +$0.10 | +$0.11 | +$0.09 | +$0.02 | +$0.07 |
| Adj. EPS % vs FMP | +14.7% | +41.7% | +20.7% | +765%† | +9.5% | +133%† | +381%† | +41.9% | +8.3% | +37.0% | +8.5% | +19.1% |
Green is a beat (#1E8449, filled when the surprise is at least +1.0% of revenue or +$0.08 of EPS). Red (#C0392B) is a revenue miss, filled when the miss is at least 0.5%. Yellow (#D4AC0D) marks the narrowest recent EPS dollar beat, FY2026 Q1 at +$0.02. Gray percent cells are the three sub-$0.10 consensus quarters. In-line revenue (FY2024 Q4, 0.0%) is unshaded. Actuals behind the EPS row include $0.86, $1.27, $1.43, $0.34, $0.20, and $0.41. Revenue actuals include $6,854 million, $7,896 million, $8,153 million, and $6,663 million.
Versus the company's own prior-quarter guide, the floor is intact and the cushion is thinner. Eight for eight on EPS and EBITDA in the window that starts FY2024 Q3, and ten for ten where the guide exists back to FY2024 Q1. EPS guide-beats: +$0.12, +$0.09, +$0.13, +$0.13, +$0.13, +$0.11, then +$0.03 and +$0.07. The Q3 guide now on the page is $1.35, against last year's Q3 guide of $1.30 that was beaten by $0.13. Yield beats in basis points over the same eight result quarters: +70, +170, +270, +200, +110, +110, +110, +20. Cost inflation has run about 150–210 bps below the guide in each of the last five computed quarters. That is why EPS can beat while yield barely does.
What management says the variance was. The repeated bridge is close-in ticket price and onboard, plus cruise costs ex-fuel, sometimes on timing. FY2026 Q2 is the first quarter in the transcript set where they paired a beat with a cut to the full-year yield guide. Bernstein: the $0.07 was about $0.05 from costs (some timing), $0.01 from revenue, and $0.01 from depreciation and fuel consumption. Weinstein had already warned, at the FY2025 Q3 call, that first-half yield outperformance of 200–250 bps was going to be hard to repeat. The subsequent compression is what he flagged. FY2025 Q2, with the year already highly booked, he said the back half had less close-in pricing left.
What this says about September 29. An adjusted-EPS beat is the base case the record supports. It does not say the beat will be another +$0.11 versus guide. The last two guide-beats were +$0.03 and +$0.07, the full-year yield guide was just cut, and close-in upside shrinks once the book is 93% sold. A revenue beat is not the base case: two of the last four revenue prints missed, and the Q3 revenue surprise has narrowed for three years. The plausible outcome is another EPS beat of modest pennies, revenue in line to slightly light, driven more by cost than by a yield surprise — which is how FY2026 Q2 just printed. The bar to clear is the same dollar on both sides: company guide about $1.35 and FMP $1.35, with EBITDA guide $2.88 billion and revenue consensus $8.391 billion, about +2.9% versus $8,153 million.