Financial Trends -- 5/10
Post-pandemic recovery in mature innings. Record absolute revenue, EBITDA, and customer deposits
with powerful deleveraging and FCF inflection. But top-line and EBITDA growth clearly decelerating
off recovery peak, operating income just turned negative YoY in the latest quarter, and net-yield
guidance was cut. "Good getting less-good" = 5/10.
Weight: 25%
FCF Trajectory
$2.6B
~$1B → $1.3B → $2.6B | Accelerating
Revenue YoY Trend
+5.3%
+9.5% → +5.3% | Recovery maturing
Op Income YoY
Neg.
Turned negative YoY in Q2'26 | Pressure
Quarterly Revenue and Growth (FY24Q1 through FY26Q2)
| Metric | FY24Q1 | FY24Q2 | FY24Q3 | FY24Q4 | FY25Q1 | FY25Q2 | FY25Q3 | FY25Q4 | FY26Q1 | FY26Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,406M | 5,781M | 7,896M | 5,938M | 5,810M | 6,328M | 8,153M | 6,330M | 6,165M | 6,663M |
| Rev YoY | — | — | — | — | +7.5% | +9.5% | +3.3% | +6.6% | +6.1% | +5.3% |
| Adj. EBITDA | — | $1.20B | $2.82B | $1.22B | $1.20B | $1.51B | $3.00B | $1.48B | $1.27B | — |
| GAAP EPS | -$0.17 | $0.07 | $1.26 | $0.23 | -$0.06 | $0.42 | $1.33 | $0.31 | $0.19 | — |
| Adj. EPS | — | $0.11 | $1.27 | $0.14 | $0.13 | $0.35 | $1.43 | $0.34 | $0.20 | — |
| Occupancy % | 102% | 104% | 112% | 103% | 103% | 104% | 112% | 102% | 103% | — |
| Interest Expense | (471M) | (450M) | (431M) | (403M) | (377M) | (341M) | (317M) | (315M) | (291M) | — |
| Total Debt | 31,552M | 30,154M | 29,644M | 28,213M | 27,711M | 27,967M | 27,188M | 27,383M | 26,004M | — |
Revenue growth decelerating off the recovery peak.
YoY revenue growth: +7.5% → +9.5% → +3.3% → +6.6% → +6.1% → +5.3%.
The peak was FY25Q2 at +9.5%; the latest quarter (FY26Q2) at
$6,663M grew only +5.3%, the weakest
comparable-quarter growth in the series. Operating income turned negative YoY in Q2'26,
signaling margin compression as costs catch up to slowing revenue.
Key Trend: Free Cash Flow Inflection
| Signal | Detail | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow | ~$1.0B → $1.3B → $2.6B over three years -- powerful acceleration driven by EBITDA growth + declining interest expense | Accelerating |
| Revenue Growth | +9.5% (FY25Q2 peak) → +5.3% (FY26Q2) -- clear deceleration as recovery normalizes | Decelerating |
| Operating Income | Turned negative YoY in Q2'26 -- first negative YoY comp in the recovery cycle | Pressure |
| Net Yield (CC) | +12.2% (FY24Q2) → +2.7% (FY26Q1) -- pricing power fading; guidance cut | Decelerating |
| Interest Expense | $471M (FY24Q1) → $291M (FY26Q1) -- 9+ consecutive quarterly declines, -38% over two years | Accelerating |
| Deleveraging | Net Debt/EBITDA: 4.5x (FY24Q3) → 2.75x (FY26Q1); ~$10B debt reduction from pandemic peak | Positive |
| Occupancy | 102-112% across quarters -- at ceiling; future growth must come from pricing, not volume fill | Plateaued |
Annual Financial Summary (USD M, FYE November 30)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 1,908M | 12,168M | 21,593M | 25,021M | 26,622M |
| Rev YoY | — | n/m | +77% | +16% | +6.4% |
| Adj. EBITDA ($B) | — | — | — | 6.1 | 7.2 |
| EBITDA YoY | — | — | — | — | +18.0% |
| GAAP Diluted EPS | -$8.46 | -$5.16 | -$0.06 | $1.44 | $2.02 |
| Adj. Diluted EPS | — | — | — | $1.42 | $2.25 |
| Total Debt | 33,970M | 35,615M | 31,339M | 28,213M | 27,383M |
| Interest Expense | (1,601M) | (1,609M) | (2,066M) | (1,755M) | (1,349M) |
| Occupancy % | 56% | 75% | 100% | 105% | 105% |
Note: Carnival reports under US GAAP in USD. Fiscal year ends November 30. All figures in
millions of USD except per-share data, ratios, and EBITDA (in billions where noted). FY2021-FY2022
Adj. EBITDA was negative and not meaningful for comparison. Occupancy above 100% reflects multiple
guests per cabin berth.
Score Rationale
Final Score: 5 / 10. The positives are real: record absolute
revenue at $6.7B in Q2'26, FCF accelerating from ~$1B to $2.6B
over three years, interest expense declining nine consecutive quarters, and Net Debt/EBITDA
compressing from 4.5x to 2.75x. But the growth trajectory is unmistakably slowing: revenue
YoY decelerated from +9.5% to +5.3%, operating income turned negative YoY for the first time
in the recovery cycle, net-yield guidance was cut, and occupancy is at ceiling. This is a
"good getting less-good" story. The deleveraging and FCF tailwinds are structural positives,
but they are being offset by top-line and margin deceleration that limits upside from here.
Daloopa (company_id: 312). Carnival Corporation, FYE November 30.