Carnival Corporation — FQ2 FY2026 Earnings Preview
FQ2 FY2026 = Quarter ended May 31, 2026 ·
Reports Late June 2026 BMO ·
Prepared June 8, 2026 · FYE November 30 · ~15-22 days out · Stock ~$26.06
Earnings Date
June 23-30, 2026
Before Market Open · ~15-22 days out
Consensus EPS
$0.34
Guide: $0.34 · Q2 2025 actual: $0.35 · -3% YoY
Consensus Revenue
~$6.68B
+6% YoY · Q2 2025: $6.33B
Stock / Market Cap
$26.06 · ~$39B
P/E ~12.3x · Fwd P/E ~12.8x
FY2026 EPS Guide
$2.21
Cut from $2.48 (Dec) · $0.38 fuel headwind · Cons ~$2.38
Yield Growth
~2.75% FY (~3.25% norm.)
Q2 guided ~2% · Q1 guided <2%, delivered 2.7%
Beat Record
12/12 EPS Beats
Avg +$0.08 L12Q · Conservative guider
Key Risk
Brent ~$98 vs $85-90 Guide
10% fuel change = $160M / $0.11 EPS
Executive Summary
Carnival reports FQ2 FY2026 (Mar-May 2026) in late June 2026.
Management guided Q2 EPS to $0.34 and full-year EPS to $2.21 on the March 27 call,
incorporating a $500M+ fuel headwind from the Middle East conflict. The operational business
is performing well — Q1 beat by $0.02 on EPS and $40M on revenue, with yields outperforming
guidance by 100+ bps (2.7% actual vs <2% guided). Bookings are at historically high prices with
85% of FY2026 on the books, customer deposits hit a record ~$8B, and the new PROPEL
framework targets ROIC >16%, EPS growth >50% by 2029, and $14B+ shareholder returns.
Conservative guidance flag: CCL has beaten EPS consensus 12 of 12 quarters
(100% beat rate, avg +$0.08). Management systematically under-promises on yields, includes only
"firmed up" cost saves, and never pre-bakes close-in demand strength — despite it being a
recurring tailwind for 3+ years. The $0.34 Q2 guide likely has $0.04-$0.08 of embedded
conservatism, implying actual EPS of ~$0.38-$0.42 if fuel cooperates.
Bull case: Operational momentum continues (yield beats, cost discipline, buyback execution),
fuel moderates toward $85 Brent, and management raises FY guidance back toward $2.40+. Record bookings,
Celebration Key ramp, RelaxAway opening June 1, and secular cruise demand growth (57% of Gen Z plan to cruise)
provide multi-year tailwinds. PROPEL's $2.5B buyback at ~12x PE is highly accretive.
Bear case: Brent crude at ~$98 vs $85-90 guidance assumptions implies an additional ~$0.10-$0.15/share
headwind if sustained. Carnival does not hedge fuel, making it the most exposed of the Big 3 cruise operators.
A further FY guidance cut to ~$2.00-$2.10 would break the beat-and-raise narrative for the first time since 2023.
Eastern Mediterranean softness and Caribbean capacity glut (27% industry growth over 2 years) add margin pressure.
What's at stake: CCL reports first among cruise peers — RCL and NCLH follow
4-5 weeks later — making this the sector bellwether for summer travel demand. The market reaction
hinges on whether investors focus on transient fuel noise or durable operational momentum under PROPEL.
Key tests: Q2 EPS vs $0.34 guide, FY guidance revision direction, H2 booking position, and buyback execution pace.
Guidance and Estimates
FQ2 2026 Current Quarter Preview
| Metric | Q2 2025 Actual | Q2 2026 Guide | Q2 2026 Consensus | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $6.33B | Not provided | ~$6.68B | +6% YoY |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ~$1.50B | ~$1.48B | ~$1.48B | Slightly below prior year due to fuel |
| Adjusted Net Income | $470M | ~$470M | ~$470M | Flat YoY |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.35 | ~$0.34 | ~$0.34 | -3% YoY; initial cons was $0.41 pre-guide |
| Net Yield Growth (CC) | +6.4% | ~2.0% | ~2.0% | Tough comp; Q1 guided <2%, delivered 2.7% |
Full Year FY2026 Guidance Walk
| Metric | FY2025 Actual | FY2026 Dec Guide | FY2026 Mar Guide | FY2026 Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.25 | ~$2.48 | $2.21 | ~$2.38 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ~$6.6B | ~$7.6B | ~$7.19B | ~$7.2B |
| Net Yield Growth (CC) | +5.5% | ~2.5% | ~2.75% | -- |
| Cruise Costs ex-Fuel/ALBD | +2.6% | ~3.25% | ~3.1% | -- |
| Fuel Assumptions | -- | -- | Brent $90/$85/$80 | Spot ~$98 |
Dec → Mar guidance bridge: Operational improvement of +$0.11/share
(Q1 beat + run-rate) was more than offset by a -$0.38/share fuel headwind from the
Middle East conflict, for a net -$0.27/share reduction. Yield and cost assumptions for the
balance of 2026 were unchanged from December — only fuel moved the guidance.
Consensus EPS of ~$2.38 sits $0.17 above the $2.21 guide, suggesting analysts expect either fuel
relief or continued operational beats.
Set Up Analysis
Management Tone Arc
| Dimension | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Mood | Euphoric | Confident/measured | Determined/offensive |
| Primary Narrative | Records, milestones | Sustainable momentum | Long-term vision despite headwinds |
| Capital Return | "Soon" | Dividend reinstated | PROPEL: $14B+, $2.5B buyback |
| Fuel Impact | Non-issue | Tailwind (+$0.17/sh) | Headwind (-$0.38/sh) |
| Key Phrase | "Firing on all cylinders" | "Further step forward" | "PROPEL: Powering Growth" |
Post-Q1 developments: DLC unification approved April 17 and completed May 7 —
CCL is now a single NYSE-listed entity (Carnival Corporation Ltd., Bermuda). The $2.5B buyback
is now actionable. No public management appearances or analyst days since March 27.
Fuel is the dominant variable: Brent has traded $95-101 through early June, well above
CCL's $90 Apr-May / $85 Q3 / $80 Q4 assumptions. This gap implies $0.10-0.15/share of additional
headwind if spot persists, likely forcing a guidance revision on the Q2 call.
Key Catalysts
| Catalyst | Timing | Consensus View | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celebration Key Full-Year Ramp | Ongoing (opened Jul 2025) | 2M guests in 2026; incremental yield tailwind | Positive |
| RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay Opening | June 1, 2026 | New pier enables Excel-class ships; H2 revenue contribution | Positive |
| $2.5B Buyback Execution | Authorized Q1 2026 | $600-800M expected FY2026; "opportunistic" | Positive if aggressive |
| DLC Unification (Completed May 7) | Done | Improved index eligibility, simplified structure | Structural positive |
| Carnival Rewards Loyalty Launch | June 1, 2026 | Points-based; incentivizes higher onboard spend | Medium-term positive |
| Fuel Price Trajectory | Ongoing | Brent ~$98 vs $85-90 guide; 10% = $0.11 EPS | Key negative risk |
| Caribbean Capacity Absorption | 2025-2027 | 27% industry growth over 2 years; CCL grew 4% | Mixed |
| Gen Z Cruise Adoption | Secular trend | 57% plan to cruise; AAA projects 21.7M US cruisers | Structural tailwind |
News Flow Since Last Report
| Date | Headline | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17 | Shareholders approve $2.5B buyback and dividend | Buyback now actionable; watch Q2 execution pace |
| May 7 | DLC unification complete; redomiciles to Bermuda | Single CCL ticker on NYSE; improved index eligibility |
| Jun 1 | Celebration Key Phase 2 berths completed | Doubles throughput capacity; 1M guests in first 5 months |
| Jun 1 | RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay grand opening | New pier enables Excel-class visits; H2 revenue inflection |
| Jun 2 | First LNG bunkering in Latin America (Roatan) | Operational milestone; advances Isla Tropicale investment |
| Ongoing | Oil prices surge 35-40% on Iran conflict | CCL most fuel-exposed of Big 3 (no hedging); $160M/$0.11 per 10% |
| Apr 30 | RCL reports strong Q1; 109% load factor, robust 2026 bookings | Confirms industry-wide demand strength; rational pricing |
| Q2 | HSBC raises PT to $30.10; Loop Capital initiates at Buy | 17/24 analysts at Strong Buy; avg PT $37.27 (~30%+ upside) |
Beat/Miss Track Record
EPS Beat/Miss Heatmap — Last 12 Quarters
| Quarter | Cons EPS | Actual EPS | Beat | Rev Est | Actual Rev | Rev Beat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $0.18 | $0.20 | +$0.02 | $6.13B | $6.17B | +$40M |
| Q4 2025 | $0.25 | $0.34 | +$0.09 | $6.38B | $6.33B | -$50M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.32 | $1.43 | +$0.11 | $8.09B | $8.15B | +$60M |
| Q2 2025 | $0.24 | $0.35 | +$0.11 | $6.20B | $6.33B | +$130M |
| Q1 2025 | $0.02 | $0.13 | +$0.11 | $5.74B | $5.81B | +$70M |
| Q4 2024 | $0.08 | $0.14 | +$0.06 | $5.94B | $5.94B | $0M |
| Q3 2024 | $1.17 | $1.27 | +$0.10 | $7.82B | $7.90B | +$80M |
| Q2 2024 | -$0.01 | $0.11 | +$0.12 | $5.68B | $5.78B | +$100M |
| Q1 2024 | -$0.18 | -$0.14 | +$0.04 | $5.40B | $5.40B | ~$0M |
| Q4 2023 | -$0.14 | -$0.07 | +$0.07 | $5.31B | $5.40B | +$90M |
| Q3 2023 | $0.73 | $0.86 | +$0.13 | $6.71B | $6.85B | +$140M |
| Q2 2023 | -$0.33 | -$0.31 | +$0.02 | $4.81B | $4.91B | +$100M |
Pattern: Consistent Beater. EPS beat rate: 12/12 (100%).
Revenue beat rate: 10/12 (83%). Average EPS beat: +$0.08 (L12Q), +$0.08 (L4Q), +$0.09 (L8Q).
Beat magnitude peaked at +$0.11-$0.13 in mid-2023 through mid-2025, with mild compression to +$0.02 in Q1 2026
(driven by fuel/FX headwinds consuming operational upside). The underlying operational beat ex-fuel/FX in Q1 was
$0.07 — still in the historical range. Expect another EPS beat in Q2, but magnitude compressed vs historical avg.
Sources: MarketBeat, Zacks, Nasdaq, StreetInsider, SEC EDGAR filings, Yahoo Finance, Carnival Corporation
earnings transcripts (FQ1 2026, FQ4 2025, FQ3 2025, FQ2 2025), PR Newswire, CLIA, AAA, Trading Economics.
Stock prices as of June 8, 2026.