Built by Grok 4.6 HighReports Friday, October 23, 2026. Prepared Thursday, September 24, 2026. This is the Q3 2026 print (quarter ended September 30). It has not been reported. The financial report is at 12:00 CET and the call is 14:00–15:00 CET, before the NYSE open. Last reported quarter is Q2 2026, released the morning of July 17, 2026. Autoliv is a calendar-year company. The homepage calendar labels this date 2026Q4. That label is the announcement-month quarter, not the quarter being reported. This page is 2026Q3.
ALV | Earnings Preview
| Q3 margin steer | Around the 9.3% first half · about −70 bps vs Q3 2025 · not a published range | Q3 consensus | EPS $2.25 · revenue $2,733 million · EBIT $253 million, a 9.26% margin |
| FY2026 adj. margin | 10.5–11% unchanged since January · quarterly stack lands near 10.4% | What Q4 has to do | About 15% at the midpoint · FMP Q4 EBIT implies about 13.6% |
Autoliv reports Q3 on Friday, October 23, with the July 17 framework still the only operating word. Nothing since that call has revised organic growth, the margin band, light-vehicle production, the tax rate, or the raw-material gross. Q3 itself has no revenue range and no EPS range. The only sentence that applies to this print is qualitative: adjusted operating margin around the first-half level, with customer compensation, engineering income, and the other offsets weighted to Q4.
Growth is decelerating, and the guide says the next step is down, not up. Reported sales growth slowed from +7.7% in Q4 2025 to +6.8% in Q1 2026 to +3.3% in Q2 2026 ($2,803 million versus $2,714 million). Organic growth peaked at +4.2% in Q4 2025 and has already stepped down to +0.8% and then +1.0%. It stopped falling. The full-year organic guide of around 0% says the second half has to turn slightly negative to land the year on flat after a first half of about +0.9%. Street Q3 revenue of $2,733 million is only +1.0% versus $2,706 million. That is a deceleration of about 5 percentage points from Q3 2025's +5.9%, not a collapse, and it is consistent with flat organic plus currency rather than a volume beat.
The margin trajectory just turned positive for one quarter, and management is giving that back. Adjusted operating margin went from 12.0% in Q4 2025 (−140 bps versus 13.4%) to 8.9% in Q1 (−100 bps) to 9.6% in Q2 (+30 bps). First-half adjusted operating income of $245 million plus $270 million on $2,753 million plus $2,803 million is 9.3%. A Q3 print at that level versus 10.0% is about −70 bps. FMP's Q3 EBIT of $253 million is a 9.26% margin on the revenue average. The Street has already moved to the soft quarter. It is no longer a gap versus the sentence management is willing to say out loud.
The number that can break is the year, not the Q3 EPS bar. The 10.5%–11.0% band was not cut when light-vehicle production went from −1% to −2.5%, the gross raw-material headwind went from about $30 million to about $90 million to about $110 million, the tax rate went from 28% to 30%, and FX was trimmed from +3% to +2.5%. Stacking first-half adjusted operating income of $515 million on FMP's Q3 EBIT of $253 million and Q4 EBIT of $385 million is about $1,153 million, roughly 10.4% of FY revenue. That scrapes under the floor. Defending the 10.75% midpoint, if Q3 really is 9.3%, still needs a Q4 margin around 15%. Q4 2025 was 12.0%. Management did not adopt the 15% figure. FMP's $385 million is a 13.6% margin, above last Q4 and short of the midpoint arithmetic.
Where the growth that is left actually sits. Asia excluding China organic has held at +11.0% for two quarters, +720 bps versus +3.8%. China organic cooled from +8.3% to +3.4% and is still faster than a falling China production tape. Americas organic went from +4.1% to −3.3%, −740 bps. EMEA went from +3.3% to −2.2%. Seatbelt organic flipped from +4.0% to −3.0%. Airbag organic was essentially unchanged at +3.0%. The flat organic year is a mix forecast: India and Chinese OEMs carry, the higher-content West does not.
What to watch on October 23
- Q3 adjusted margin near 9.3%, not already showing the Q4 step-up. Below about 9%, with the recovery pushed into 2027, is the cut. At or through 10% would pull the Q4 burden down.
- Whether organic outperformance stays near Q2's roughly 1 point. The full-year 2.5 point claim needs the second half nearer 3 points. A repeat of Q2 without a clearer bridge makes flat organic a Q4 volume bet as well as a Q4 margin bet.
- China call-offs against a retail tape that is much weaker than production. September 1–20 China passenger-car retail was −22% year over year. Exports have been holding plant invoices. That split is the China risk.
- The raw-material gross still about $110 million, with the majority of the offset still described as a Q4 item. A higher gross number without a range change is how 10.5–11% becomes a hope.
- Any bias inside the margin range. Bratt declined to pick the low or high half on July 17. A low-end lean, or a cut of the floor, is the guidance event. A reiteration with Q4 compensation described as already visible is the constructive one.
- Adjusted EPS versus $2.25, not GAAP. The seven-quarter adjusted-EPS beat streak is intact and the last print was one cent. Do not add the old +11% surprise to $2.25. That would fight the cadence they just described.
General Motors on Tuesday, October 20 is the only company-confirmed auto print before this release. It is an OEM customer, not a supplier comp. Lear, Magna, Aptiv, and BorgWarner all report after October 23. No direct passive-safety peer sets up the tape.
Autoliv does not guide quarterly revenue, quarterly EPS, gross margin, or EBITDA. There is no Q3 dollar midpoint to beat. The numeric bar for October 23 is FMP. Classification: conservative on the quarter, aggressive on the year. The Q3 margin sentence points at a result about 70 bps below last year, and the Street is already there. The full-year band was held while every external assumption except the outperformance claim got harder, and the outperformance claim rose only because organic was not raised when light-vehicle production was cut.
The July 17 guide excludes capacity alignments and antitrust items. It assumes no material change to tariffs or trade restrictions in effect on July 9, 2026, no significant macro change, no change in customer call-off stability, and no significant supply-chain disruption. Those footnotes are still the operative conditions. Daloopa's document index for calendar Q3 2026 is empty.
| FY2026 item | Jan 30 | Apr 17 | Jul 17, still live | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Organic sales | 0% | 0% | 0% | Held. H1 is already about +0.9%, so H2 has to be slightly negative. |
| LVP assumption | −1% | −1% | −2.5% | Cut 150 bps. China, not the Middle East. A bit below S&P's July −2.3%. |
| Adj. operating margin | 10.5%–11% | 10.5%–11% | 10.5%–11% | Unchanged. No bias to either end. Midpoint 10.75% is arithmetic, not a target. +20 to +70 bps vs FY2025 10.3%. |
| FX on sales | +1% | +3% | +2.5% | Trimmed 50 bps vs April. Still a tailwind. Flat organic plus this FX implies about $11.09 billion of sales. |
| Tax rate | 28% | 28% | 30% | Raised 200 bps. Hits EPS, not the margin range. About a 3% after-tax headwind vs a 28% rate. |
| Operating cash flow | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.2B | Unchanged. +3.7% vs FY2025 $1,157 million. H1 is −$76 million + $434 million = $358 million. |
| Capex, net | 5% | 5% | 5% | Ceiling. Release language is below 5% of sales. Not a midpoint. |
| Raw-material gross | ~$30M | ~$90M | ~$110M | Call and release, not a tagged series. Gross, before offsets. Majority of the recovery is Q4. |
FMP, not Visible Alpha and not Bloomberg. Averages as of September 24. High and low are the file, not a company range. FMP EBIT has tracked adjusted operating income recently — the Q2 estimate of $270 million matched adjusted $270 million, not the GAAP margin of 6.8% — but it is still not a same-definition consensus, so those rows are not differenced against the margin guide.
| Period | Revenue | YoY vs Daloopa | EPS | EPS YoY | EBIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026e | $2,733M | +1.0% | $2.25 | −3.0% | $253M |
| Q4 2026e | $2,828M | +0.4% | $3.56 | +11.7% | $385M |
| FY2026e | $11.106B | +2.7% | $10.12 | +2.7% | $1.118B |
| FY2027e, not guided | $11.433B | +2.9% vs FY26e | $12.02 | +18.8% vs FY26e | $1.343B |
Q3 compares are versus $2,706 million and adjusted EPS of $2.32. Q4 compares are versus $2,817 million and $3.19. FY2026 compares are versus $10,815 million and $9.85. The separate earnings-calendar row for October 23 is EPS $2.22 and revenue $2,728 million, same direction, a few million lower on sales. Q3 revenue low–high is $2,693–$2,775 million (7 analysts). Q3 EPS low–high is $2.16–$2.32 (4 analysts). The top of that EPS range is last year's number.
Implied reported sales from flat organic plus FX of +2.5% on FY2025 sales are about $11.09 billion. FMP's $11.106 billion is about +0.2% versus that implication. Full-year revenue consensus is in line with the sales math. It is not in line with the margin midpoint. FMP's own FY EBIT of $1.118 billion is a 10.07% margin, under the floor, and about 6% below the roughly $1.19 billion the 10.75% midpoint implies.
Quarter not reported. Guide columns say Not Guided when the July call did not give a Q3 or Q4 number. The 9.3% figure is the first-half reference they pointed at, calculated, not a new range. Internal estimates are n/a. Percent difference on revenue and EPS is versus the year-ago quarter, because there is no company dollar midpoint.
Current quarter — Q3 2026
| Metric | Guide | Consensus | Internal | Vs Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | Not guided | $2,733M | n/a | +1.0% |
| Organic sales | Not guided. FY is flat | n/a | n/a | Q3 2025 was +3.9% |
| Adj. operating margin | ~9.3% H1 reference | EBIT margin 9.26% | n/a | about −70 bps |
| Gross margin | Not guided | n/a | n/a | Q2 was −30 bps YoY, to 18.2% |
| EBIT, FMP definition | Not guided | $253M | n/a | about −6.5% vs $271M |
| Adj. diluted EPS | Not guided | $2.25 | n/a | −3.0% |
Eight reported quarters, then the open print. Columns are periods. YoY is versus the year-ago quarter. Organic is Daloopa's consolidated sales-development total. Currency is the global line next to it. The two sum to reported sales growth in every quarter shown.
| Metric | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | $2,555 | $2,616 | $2,578 | $2,714 | $2,706 | $2,817 | $2,753 | $2,803 |
| Sales YoY | −1.6% | −4.9% | −1.4% | +4.2% | +5.9% | +7.7% | +6.8% | +3.3% |
| Organic | −0.8% | −3.3% | +2.2% | +3.4% | +3.9% | +4.2% | +0.8% | +1.0% |
| Currency | −0.8% | −1.6% | −3.6% | +0.8% | +2.0% | +3.5% | +6.0% | +2.3% |
| Adj. op. margin | — | 13.4% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 9.6% |
| Margin YoY | — | — | — | — | — | −140 bps | −100 bps | +30 bps |
| Adj. diluted EPS | $1.84 | $3.05 | $2.15 | $2.21 | $2.32 | $3.19 | $2.05 | $2.43 |
| China organic | −9.3% | −5.2% | −1.6% | +1.7% | +6.2% | +8.3% | +4.9% | +3.4% |
| Asia ex-China organic | +4.8% | +3.5% | +7.7% | +3.8% | +5.5% | +6.5% | +11.0% | +11.0% |
| Americas organic | −3.8% | −4.4% | +1.3% | +4.1% | +4.7% | +3.3% | −5.2% | −3.3% |
| EMEA organic | +6.3% | −5.2% | +1.9% | +3.3% | +0.1% | +0.1% | −1.8% | −2.2% |
| Airbags organic | −0.7% | −4.1% | +1.7% | +3.1% | +3.6% | +5.1% | +0.7% | +3.0% |
| Seatbelts organic | −1.0% | −1.6% | +3.2% | +4.0% | +4.5% | +2.2% | +1.1% | −3.0% |
Reported growth reaccelerated through Q4 2025 and has given back 440 bps of that rate by Q2 2026. Organic gave back about 320 bps from the Q4 peak and then stalled near 1%. Q1's +6.8% reported growth was mostly currency of +6.0%. Once the Street is inside the currency, the revenue beat shrinks toward the organic rate. That is why a +1% Q3 revenue bar is not a low one. Gross margin has been compressing on the reported line: 19.3% in Q3 2025, 20.3% in Q4 2025, 19.1% in Q1 2026, 18.2% in Q2 2026. The call attributed almost 80 bps of the Q2 gross-margin decline to a supplier-compensation reversal and the Turkey impairment, so the underlying move is smaller than the reported 30 bps versus 18.5%. It is still not an expanding gross margin. Q3 2024 adjusted EPS of $1.84 is the Q3 2024 10-Q figure that matches FMP, not a Daloopa fundamental id. The adjusted-EPS series starts in Q4 2024.
The Q2 bridge is the wrong template for Q3. Adjusted operating income still rose because operations of +$61 million covered a raw-material hit of −$21 million, versus only −$4 million a year earlier and −$5 million in Q1. Management has said that customer offset does not repeat in Q3. Year-to-date raw material in the bridge is about −$26 million of the roughly $110 million gross for the year, so most of the gross headwind is still in front of the print.
FQ+1 — Q4 2026
No quarterly dollar guide exists for Q4 either. Management said sales for the rest of the year are geared to Q4, and that compensation and engineering income land mostly then. They did not give a Q4 margin. The roughly 15% figure is an analyst's question, not a guide. Consensus percent difference is versus Q4 2025.
Consensus revenue growth slows further, from +1.0% in Q3 to +0.4% in Q4, while consensus EPS growth flips from −3.0% to +11.7%. That shape matches the call: a soft third quarter and a profit step-up in the fourth, on sales that are not growing. It does not match a 15% margin. The Street is modeling the step-up. It is not modeling the midpoint. Q4 2024's 13.4% is the closer historical comp for the $385 million, and even that is short of what the middle of the range requires if Q3 only delivers the first half.
Full-year framework still in force
This is the guide already on the books, not a new one. FY2027 is not guided. Revenue dollars below are the implication of flat organic plus FX of +2.5%, not a range the company published. The margin band is the guide.
| FY2026 metric | Guide | Consensus | Internal | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Organic sales | flat | n/a | n/a | Conservative vs H1 of about +0.9%. Not a raise. |
| Outperformance vs LVP | ~2.5 pp | n/a | n/a | The arithmetic of flat organic minus −2.5% LVP. Q2 was about 1.3 pp. |
| Implied reported sales | ~$11.09B | $11.106B | n/a | Street is +0.2% vs the implication and +2.7% vs $10,815M. |
| Adj. operating margin | 10.5%–11.0% | n/a. Stack ~10.4% | n/a | Range held. The Q4 required to defend the midpoint is the aggressive piece. |
| Adj. diluted EPS | Not guided | $10.12 | n/a | +2.7% vs $9.85. A small lift, not a 15% Q4 run-rate. |
| Operating cash flow | ~$1.2B | n/a | n/a | Needs about $840 million in the second half. Last year's second half was $258 million + $544 million = $802 million. |
| FY2027 revenue / EPS | Not guided | $11.433B / $12.02 | n/a | Consensus on consensus. The downgrades are aimed here, not at Q3. |
Five years of reported sales and cash flow. Adjusted margin and adjusted EPS exist as a tagged annual series only from 2024. Earlier years are left blank rather than filled from a different definition.
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | $8,230 | $8,842 | $10,475 | $10,390 | $10,815 |
| Sales YoY | — | +7.4% | +18.5% | −0.8% | +4.1% |
| Airbags | $5,380 | $5,807 | $7,055 | $7,023 | $7,302 |
| Airbags YoY | — | +7.9% | +21.5% | −0.5% | +4.0% |
| Seatbelts | $2,850 | $3,035 | $3,420 | $3,367 | $3,513 |
| Seatbelts YoY | — | +6.5% | +12.7% | −1.5% | +4.3% |
| Adj. operating margin | — | — | — | 9.7% | 10.3% |
| Adj. diluted EPS | — | — | — | $8.32 | $9.85 |
| EPS YoY | — | — | — | — | +18.4% |
| Operating cash flow | $754 | $713 | $982 | $1,059 | $1,157 |
| OCF YoY | — | −5.4% | +37.7% | +7.8% | +9.3% |
Sales growth has already decelerated from the 2023 snapback (+18.5%) to a low-single-digit recovery (+4.1% in 2025) and is guided to about +2.5% reported in 2026, all of it currency. Margin expansion is the part of the story that is still supposed to continue: +60 bps from 9.7% to 10.3%, and another +20 to +70 bps if the live band is hit. Cash flow has compounded for three years and the $1.2 billion guide is another small step, not a new regime. FY2025 landed inside that year's 10.0–10.5% margin range. They are not a chronic range-misser. The EPS beat versus FMP has still shrunk to a penny.
Headline targets were reiterated on July 17 and have not been updated. The tone underneath is more caveated than January or April. Light-vehicle production was cut, the tax rate was raised, the gross raw-material headwind was raised again, and the profit bridge was pushed into the fourth quarter. Q3 is explicitly not the quarter that delivers the full-year margin. Bratt's confidence got more specific — they have done a back-end-loaded year in 2023 and 2024 — and less open-ended. He would not pick a point inside 10.5–11%. That is not a cut. It is also not a sandbag of the high end.
The contradiction the Street has not fully taken is the year, not the quarter. Management keeps the range and says the customer-price routines are established. FMP's quarterly path gets the year to about 10.4%, under the floor, with a Q4 margin near 13.6% rather than 15%. TD Cowen and Wolfe have since stopped treating that Q4 step-up as a 2027 run-rate. The track record says they land inside a full-year margin range, including by cutting one when they lose faith, as they did in 2024. They have not cut this one. The refusal to raise a flat organic guide that the first half has already exceeded is the same pattern in the other direction: in 2025 they raised organic only after the higher number was obvious, and they still beat the raised number by less than a point.
| Topic | Jan 30, Q4 2025 | Apr 17, Q1 2026 | Jul 17, Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening posture | Record year. Initial 2026 guide. Westin's last call as CFO. | "Exceeded our expectations." Grama's first call. Comfortable despite the Strait of Hormuz. | "Record second quarter," then an explicit list of one-time items that net to roughly nothing on adjusted margin. |
| LVP | About −1%, already more cautious than S&P. | Held at −1% even after S&P moved toward −2%. | Cut to −2.5%. China is the reason. Now roughly in line with S&P, 20 bps more cautious. |
| Margin path | 10.5–11% with a normal quarterly sequence. | Range held. Headwinds "more than" offset. Not guiding by quarter. | Range held, but the year is back-end loaded. Q3 stays near the first-half level. |
| Raw materials | About $30 million gross, mostly nonferrous. | Raised to about $90 million. Net inside the guide. | Raised to about $110 million. Recovery lead time is the Q4 story. Not a promise of full recovery. |
| Mix | Not a 2026 tailwind. | Neutral versus 2025. | Now about 40 bps of positive mix. Still a small number, and not enough by itself to lift H2 outperformance from 2 points to 3. |
What has been said since July 17. No sell-side conference, fireside, or investor day with Bratt or Grama produced a new operating number. The August 13 dividend stayed at $0.87. The September 8 virtual-testing release and the September 24 call invitation are not outlooks. The September 8 Morgan Stanley listing produced no transcript that changes organic growth, the margin range, the $110 million, the tax rate, or the Q3 sentence. Absence from the sources checked is not proof every meeting was silent. It is enough that no new number is in the public record.
Macro since the guide is not an Autoliv number. A September production pass from a forecaster other than S&P cut Greater China by about 300,000 units for 2026, raised Europe, Japan, and South Asia, and put North America down about 1.6%, a bit worse than the −1% described on the July call. China is the assumption most exposed. Management already said China production is holding up better than domestic retail because of exports, and that Autoliv cannot split export vehicles from domestic ones inside China plants. The inflation backdrop that shoved recoveries into Q4 was still being described as in place in late September. That supports the existing setup. It does not revise the $110 million.
Guidance scoreboard, annual, which is how the company is actually judged. Organic: 2024 was a miss after three cuts, finishing about 0.8% against a last guide of 1%. 2025 was a beat of about 70 bps against a raised 3%. 2026 is ahead at the half and the 0% guide was not raised. Margin: 2024 landed at 9.7% only after the range was cut. 2025 landed at 10.3%, inside 10.0–10.5%, and the range was never raised. Cash flow has come in around the round number, not through it. The new information for October 23 is the Q3 versus Q4 split, which has no history as a quarterly commitment because they have not made one before.
Use $270 million for Q2 adjusted operating income. One pass of the CEO's prepared remarks said $217 million. That figure does not reconcile to a 9.6% margin or to the CFO. Daloopa confirms $270 million.
Consensus is underwriting a soft Q3 — revenue only about +1% year over year and an EBIT margin near 9.3%, in line with the first half — and is paying for the 10.5–11% full-year margin only if Q4 EBIT steps up to about $385 million. A Q3 revenue beat without a comment that Q4 compensation is on track does not defend the floor. A Q3 margin above about 9.3% would mean the recovery is less back-end loaded than both management and the Street currently say.
| Catalyst | Latest reported, Q2 vs Q2 | What consensus believes | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 margin at the first-half level; Q4 does the work | Margin 9.6% vs 9.3%, +30 bps. Income $270M vs $251M. | Q3 EBIT $253M on $2,733M is 9.3%, about −70 bps vs 10.0%. Q4 EBIT $385M is 13.6%, about +160 bps vs 12.0%. | Q3 soft. Q4 is the guide. |
| Raw materials, recovery back-end loaded | YoY bridge −$21M vs −$4M. Third upward revision of the gross, to ~$110M. | The Street is not putting the recovery in Q3. H1 bridge raw material is only about −$26M of the $110M gross. | Negative in Q3. Q4 mitigant. |
| Flat organic vs a weaker LVP tape | Organic +1.0%. Reported sales +3.3%. Guide still 0% organic and −2.5% LVP. | Q3 revenue +1.0% is a slowdown from +3.3%, consistent with flat organic plus FX. FY revenue is roughly that same bridge. | In line with July. |
| China: retail down, exports holding plants, local OEM share up | China organic +3.4% vs +1.7%, but cooled from +8.3%. China LVP −4.0%. | No China snapback inside the +1% group revenue number. Call: Chinese OEMs were 55% of China sales vs 40%, and grew more than 40 points faster than China LVP. | Volume risk. Share still positive. |
| India and Asia ex-China | Asia ex-China organic +11.0% vs +3.8%, +720 bps, and unchanged vs Q1. Call: India organic about +36%. | Supports the outperformance guide. India was about 5% of sales, so even a very strong quarter is about 1–2 points of group growth. Consensus did not raise group revenue for it. | Positive, too small to re-rate Q3. |
| Americas, Europe, and seatbelts | Americas −3.3%. EMEA −2.2%. Seatbelts −3.0%, a 700 bp deceleration. Airbags held at +3.0%. | The flat organic guide already assumes high-content West offsets low-content growth elsewhere. A further negative mix is how Q3 misses 9.3% without a revenue miss. | Watch. |
| Tariffs and the tax rate | Call: more than 80% of tariff cost recovered in the quarter. YoY bridge item +$4M vs −$7M. Tax guide 30%. | Already in the FY EPS average of $10.12. The new information is process: USMCA was not renewed on July 1, and Section 232 remains, with qualifying parts largely exempt. A risk to the LVP assumption, not a new Q3 EPS line. | Known. Watch call-offs. |
| Turkey exit | $142M charge, $129M cash, $40M annual pre-tax savings, 2,200 employees. About $90M recognized in Q2. | Not in 2026 adjusted earnings. Savings start in 2027, full run-rate in 2028, closure aimed at the first half of 2028. Q3 watch is further GAAP charge and cash timing. | 2027, not this quarter. |
| China OEM agreements and new capacity | 2025 passive-safety share 44%. Call said around 45%. Order intake not disclosed. | Great Wall and XPeng frameworks have no disclosed value. Wuhu production is 2027. Wuhan is R&D. None of this is in the Q3 revenue or EBIT averages. | Medium-term share, not Q3. |
The bull case on this print is Q3 compensation arriving earlier than the "limited in Q3" language, or Asia ex-China staying at an 11% organic rate while China production is no worse than about −4%. The bear case is a China production cut-through into July–September call-offs, Americas organic still negative, and another raw-material bridge print near −$21 million with no offset. That combination misses 9.3% without needing a revenue miss, and it puts the 10.5% floor onto an even larger Q4. Another quarter of Chinese-OEM growth, an India rate well above the group, no Turkey savings in the adjusted numbers, and no revenue from Wuhu would not be a surprise. Consensus already treats those as share and 2027.
Company news since July 17 is China capacity and R&D, plus a Toyota virtual-testing pilot. None of it changes Q3 organic sales or the Q3 margin bridge. The trajectory that did change is external. TD Cowen and Wolfe have turned cautious on 2027 growth, and China retail into the quarter being reported is weak. No recall, litigation, guidance cut, or CEO or CFO change showed up in the window. The Americas president seat went interim on a date that was already known when the July guide was set.
| Date | Item | Source | Why it matters into Oct 23 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23 | Wolfe cuts Autoliv to Peer Perform. 2027 called another flattish sales year with weaker earnings. | TheFly | Challenges the reacceleration embedded in FY2027 consensus of about $11.43B revenue and $12.02 EPS. Not a Q3 number. |
| Sep 22 | Jefferies keeps Hold and cuts the target to $119 from $134. No public fundamental reason. | TheFly | Confirms the Hold camp is marking targets down. Not a new operating fact, and not a valuation used here. |
| Sep 22 | Wuhan technology center opens for China safety R&D, alongside Shanghai. | Gasgoo | Supports the local-OEM content story. Does not change Q3 call-offs. No English wire was found. |
| Sep 8 | TD Cowen cuts to Hold from Buy. Downside risk to 2027 sales, and a heavier Q4 margin cadence. | TheFly | The cleanest pre-print pushback. Maps directly onto the July sentence that Q3 is the soft quarter and Q4 does the margin work. |
| Sep 8 | Toyota is the first automaker evaluating the Human Body Model Safety Suite. Broader release still planned in 2026. | Autoliv | Best company release in the window, and it is a pilot, not a supply award. No revenue, price, or margin figure. Same day as the Cowen cut. |
| Sep 3 | Eurajoki 101 MWp solar park commissioned under a virtual PPA signed in April 2025. | Alight | Sustainability execution. Not a demand or margin item for this print. |
| Aug 31 | Kevin Fox's Americas presidency ends. Anthony Nellis, general counsel, is acting. No permanent successor named. | Autoliv, Jun 26 | Divisional, not CEO or CFO. The seat is still interim where organic growth is weakest, −3.3% in Q2. |
| Aug 13 | Quarterly dividend held at $0.87. Payable September 15 on the NYSE line. | PR Newswire | Capital-return continuity next to the $300–500 million 2026 repurchase ambition. Not a raise, and not new earnings power. |
| Aug 12 | Chery safety Tech Day. More than 60 products shown. No quantified order. | MarkLines | Commercial color consistent with Q2 commentary that Chery was a China growth driver. Not a content figure. |
| Aug 10 | Wuhu airbag plant groundbreaking. Production targeted for 2027, next to Chery. | Gasgoo | Capacity for the local-OEM mix, not 2026 volume. Adds footprint while China retail is falling. |
| Sep 24 | CPCA: China passenger-car retail for Sept 1–20 was 878,000 units, −22% YoY. YTD retail −21%. Pure-fuel production in those three weeks −52% YoY. NEV wholesale +8% YoY. | Gasgoo, citing CPCA | This is the quarter about to be reported. Retail weakness on a high year-ago subsidy base is the demand risk against a global LVP assumption of about −2.5%. Not company guidance. |
The bull case needs Chinese-OEM outperformance and the Q4 margin step-up to stay intact despite a weaker production tape. The bear case, which is what the downgrades are arguing, is that flat organic and a 10.5–11% margin in 2026 are the peak, not a pause. Great Wall and XPeng frameworks were signed on July 6 and July 7, before this window, and remain the commercial context for Wuhu and Wuhan. They still have no disclosed value.
Mixed over 12 quarters, and a consistent adjusted-EPS beater whose magnitude just collapsed. Autoliv beat FMP adjusted-EPS consensus in 9 of 12 quarters and in 4 of 4 since Q3 2025. That is a seven-quarter streak, Q4 2024 through Q2 2026. Revenue beat in 9 of 12, and in 3 of 4 recently. The three EPS misses are all in Q3 2023 through Q3 2024. The last three EPS surprises before Q2 2026 sat at +11% to +12%. Q2 2026 was +0.4%, one cent. Q3 2026 has not printed.
FMP epsActual matches Daloopa adjusted diluted EPS on every quarter the series exists, from Q4 2024 through Q2 2026. Scoring GAAP would turn the Q2 penny beat into a large miss: GAAP diluted EPS was $1.35 against adjusted $2.43. The Street scores the adjusted line. Estimates below are the stored FMP file as of September 24, not necessarily the estimate on the screen the morning of each print. On that stored file Q2 is a one-cent beat. TipRanks on July 17 cited $2.46, which would have made the same $2.43 a rounding-error miss. It is marked in line on the stored file and should not be extrapolated as another +11%.
| Window | EPS beat rate | Revenue beat rate | Avg EPS surprise | Avg revenue surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 12 quarters | 9 / 12 | 9 / 12 | +5.9% | +1.3% |
| Last 4 quarters | 4 / 4 | 3 / 4 | +8.8% | +2.1% |
| Last 3 before Q2 2026 | 3 / 3 | 2 / 3 | +11.6% | +2.4% |
| Q2 2026 alone | Beat | Beat | +0.4% | +1.2% |
The regime improved, and the latest print deteriorated. The first four quarters of the window averaged a flat EPS surprise. The middle four averaged about +9% on EPS and +3.3% on revenue. The last-four EPS average of +8.8% looks stable only because three surprises of +11.0%, +11.9%, and +12.0% are averaged with +0.4%. Dollar surprises on those four prints are +$0.23, +$0.34, +$0.22, and +$0.01. Two of the large EPS beats were not clean operating beats. Q1 2025 was +28% against a low $1.68 bar while sales were still down year over year. Q1 2026 was +12% on EPS even though adjusted operating income fell from $255 million to $245 million. Q2 2026 is the contrast: adjusted profit rose, and the EPS beat was still a penny.
Q3 2025, the seasonal analog, was a revenue tie (a miss of about $0.5 million versus a $2,706.5 million estimate, on sales of $2,706 million) and an +11% EPS beat on margin, not on sales. This quarter, management has said the margin will not do that work. The base rate says another adjusted-EPS beat is more likely than a miss, because the streak is long and $2.25 does not require growth versus $2.32. Underwriting another low-double-digit surprise does not. A flat EPS would beat. That is an easier hurdle, not evidence the Street is still low.
Green is a beat, red is a miss, yellow is the collapsed last EPS print. Solid fill is a surprise of about 5% or more. Smaller surprises are the brand color on white. Q3 2026 is not on the grid.
| Metric | Q3 23 | Q4 23 | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue vs FMP | −2.0% | +0.0% | +0.4% | −4.7% | +1.3% | +5.5% | +2.8% | +3.5% | −0.0% | +1.8% | +5.3% | +1.2% |
| Adj. EPS vs FMP | −10.3% | +15.1% | +11.3% | −16.1% | −5.6% | +7.4% | +28.0% | +5.7% | +11.0% | +11.9% | +12.0% | +0.4% |
Read left to right. Both rows are red in Q3 2023 and again, harder, in Q2 2024. From Q4 2024 the EPS row stays green, and then the last cell fades to +0.4%. The revenue row is green over that stretch except a Q3 2025 cell that is a rounding miss. Q4 2023 revenue was a beat of about $0.1 million and is shown as flat. The Q2 2024 revenue miss of −4.7% is filled red because it is the only large revenue miss in the window.
Data sourced from Daloopa.