Financial Trends -- 7/10

Revenue YoY accelerating off the 2024 trough (-4.9% Q4'24 → +6.8% Q1'26). Gross margin expanding ~+180bps over 2 years (17.4% FY23 → 19.2% FY25). Share count declining ~3%/yr. FCF positive and growing strongly (+48% FY25). Docked from 8+ because adj op margin expansion is modest (+60bps), quarterly margin choppy, and Q1 FCF seasonally negative and deteriorating. No penalty modifiers. Weight: 25%
FY2025 Revenue
+4.1% YoY | Re-accelerating
FY2025 Gross Margin
19.2%
+180bps over 2yr | Expanding
FY2025 FCF
+48% YoY | Growing strongly
Share Count
-12.5% from FY21 | Declining via buybacks

Quarterly Performance (Q1 2024 -- Q1 2026)
Quarter Net Sales ($M) YoY Gross Margin Adj Op Margin FCF ($M) Diluted EPS
Q1 2024 $2,615 +4.9% 16.9% ($18) $1.52
Q2 2024 $2,605 -1.1% 18.2% $194 $1.71
Q3 2024 $2,555 -1.6% 18.0% $32 $1.74
Q4 2024 $2,616 -4.9% 21.1% 13.4% $288 $3.07
Q1 2025 $2,578 -1.4% 18.5% 9.9% ($16) $2.14
Q2 2025 $2,714 +4.2% 18.5% 9.3% $163 $2.16
Q3 2025 $2,706 +5.9% 19.3% 10.0% $153 $2.28
Q4 2025 $2,817 +7.7% 20.3% 12.0% $434 $2.97
Q1 2026 $2,753 +6.8% 19.1% 8.9% ($159) $1.88

Key Trends
Revenue accelerating off 2024 trough. Quarterly YoY trajectory: -4.9% → -1.4% → +4.2% → +5.9% → +7.7% → +6.8%. The inflection from negative to positive growth in Q2 2025 has been sustained for four consecutive quarters. Gross margin expanded 180bps over two years (FY23 17.4% → FY25 19.2%).
Adj op margin expansion modest and choppy. Full-year adj op margin improved +60bps (FY24 9.7% → FY25 10.3%), guided to 10.5-11% for FY26. Quarterly margin swings remain wide -- Q4 2025 hit 12.0% while Q1 2026 dropped to 8.9%.
FCF strongly seasonal; annual trajectory the clean signal. Q1 consistently negative (working capital build), Q4 strongest. Annual FCF: $497M (FY24) → $734M (FY25), +48% YoY. Share count reduced from 87.5M → 76.6M over 5 years (-12.5%).

Annual Financial Summary (FY2021 -- FY2025, FYE December 31)
Metric FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025
Net Sales ($M) 8,230 8,842 10,475 10,390 10,815
Rev YoY +10.5% +7.4% +18.5% -0.8% +4.1%
Gross Margin 18.4% 15.8% 17.4% 18.5% 19.2%
Free Cash Flow ($M) 300 228 414 497 734
FCF YoY -41% -24% +82% +20% +48%
Diluted EPS $3.27 $3.42 $5.87 $8.32 $9.85
Shares Outstanding (M) 87.5 86.2 82.6 77.7 76.6
Total Debt ($M) 1,582 1,582 2,328 2,079 1,830
Autoliv reports under US GAAP in USD. Fiscal year ends December 31. All figures in millions except per-share data and shares outstanding. Adj metrics exclude capacity alignments, antitrust-related items, and related tax effects. No penalty modifiers apply.

Penalty / Modifier Assessment
No penalty modifiers apply. The 7/10 score reflects the balance of accelerating revenue and strong FCF growth against modest adj op margin expansion (+60bps), quarterly margin choppiness, and seasonally negative Q1 FCF that is deteriorating (-$18 Q1'24 → -$16 Q1'25 → -$159 Q1'26).
Daloopa (company_id: 11, FYE December 31). All figures linked to source records.