Autoliv, Inc. — 7/10
BUY
NYSE: ALV | Global #1 in automotive passive safety (~44% global share) in a consolidated 3-player oligopoly (ALV, ZF, Joyson). Revenue re-accelerating off 2024 trough (+6.8% Q1'26). Gross margin expanding +180bps over 2 years. FCF positive and growing (+48% FY25). Stable management with 0 red flags. Held back by mid-single-digit theme growth, China ~20%+ exposure facing >10% LVP decline, and no contrarian edge.
Company stats
| CEO | Mikael Bratt (since 2018) | CFO | Fredrik Westin |
| FY2025 Revenue | $10,815M (+4.1%) | FY2025 Adj Op Margin | 10.3% |
| Airbag Share | 44% | Seatbelt Share | 45% |
| FY2025 EPS | $9.55 | FYE | December 31 |
| Quality Gate | PASS (0 NOs) |
Score breakdown
7
/ 10
Financial Trends
Weight: 25% | Weighted: 1.75
Revenue +4.1% YoY to record $10.8B with accelerating quarterly momentum. Gross margin expanding +180bps over 2 years. Adj operating margin 10.3%, tracking toward 12% target. FCF surged +48% to $734M. Re-accelerating off 2024 trough with Q1'26 +6.8% organic growth. Solid self-help execution on margin expansion and buybacks.
8
/ 10
Thematic Exposure
Weight: 35% | Weighted: 2.8
Consolidated 3-player oligopoly with ~44% global share. Content per vehicle rising globally -- side airbags, Euro NCAP 2026 protocols, India 6-airbag mandate. India at 60% share, CPV rising from $120 to $140+. Chinese OEM sales accelerating. TAM growing ~5% CAGR with regulatory tailwinds. Mid-single-digit theme growth is the ceiling, not a floor.
8
/ 10
Management Quality
Weight: 20% | Weighted: 1.60
Bratt (CEO since 2018) and Westin (CFO) provide stable, disciplined leadership. 0 red flags. Guidance accuracy excellent. Clear 12% margin bridge with quantified building blocks. Capital allocation strong with aggressive buybacks and conservative leverage. Credible self-help margin path executing on schedule.
5
/ 10
Investor Sentiment (Inverted)
Weight: 5% | Weighted: 0.25
Consensus still tilts Buy -- priced-in, not contrarian. Insider selling noted. No capitulation setup. The stock is not universally hated enough to provide a contrarian edge. Mid-range sentiment with no clear catalyst for re-rating from positioning alone.
4
/ 10
Concerns, Catalysts & Risks
Weight: 15% | Weighted: 0.60
China ~20%+ exposure facing >10% Q1 LVP decline. USMCA/tariff overhangs unresolved. Mid-single-digit theme growth caps upside. No contrarian edge from sentiment. Near-term macro risk from global LVP weakness and tariff-induced demand destruction. Structural self-help is real but priced in at current levels.
| Dimension | Score | Weight | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Trends | 7 | 25% | 1.75 |
| Thematic Exposure | 8 | 35% | 2.8 |
| Management Quality | 8 | 20% | 1.60 |
| Investor Sentiment (Inverted) | 5 | 5% | 0.25 |
| Concerns, Catalysts & Risks | 4 | 15% | 0.60 |
| Composite | 100% | 7 |
Summary thesis
Leaders remain leaders franchise -- dominant #1 in consolidated passive-safety oligopoly with accelerating revenue, expanding gross margin, growing FCF, stable management executing credible self-help margin path to 12%. Held to 7 by modest-growth theme (mid-single-digit, LVP-gated), priced-in consensus Buy with insider selling, and China ~20%+ exposure facing near-term LVP decline plus USMCA/tariff overhangs. Quality gate: ALL PASS (0 NOs).
Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id: 11). Analysis date: 2026-06-25.