ADSK -- FQ1 FY2027 Earnings Review
| Metric | FQ1 FY25 | FQ2 FY25 | FQ3 FY25 | FQ4 FY25 | FQ1 FY26 | FQ2 FY26 | FQ3 FY26 | FQ4 FY26 | FQ1 FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue ($M) | $1,417 | $1,505 | $1,570 | $1,639 | $1,633 | $1,763 | $1,853 | $1,957 | $1,934* |
| Revenue YoY % | +12.0% | +11.9% | +11.3% | +12.0% | +15.2% | +17.1% | +18.0% | +19.4% | +18.4% |
| Constant-Currency Rev Growth | +13% | +12% | +12% | +12% | +16% | +18% | +18% | +19% | +16%* |
| Billings ($M) | $1,110 | $1,240 | $1,540 | $2,110 | $1,434 | $1,678 | $1,855 | $2,804 | $1,688* |
| Billings YoY % | -- | -- | -- | -- | +29.2% | +35.3% | +20.5% | +32.9% | +17.7% |
| Billings CC YoY % | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | +15% |
| Current RPO ($M) | $3,917 | $3,896 | $4,014 | $4,457 | $4,552 | $4,677 | $4,830 | $5,479 | $5,383* |
| cRPO YoY % | -- | -- | -- | -- | +16.2% | +20.0% | +20.3% | +22.9% | +18.3% |
| Total RPO ($M) | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | $7,808* |
| Total RPO YoY % | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | +9% |
| Deferred Revenue ($M) | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | $4,457* |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin | 35% | 37% | 36% | 37% | 37% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 39%* |
| GAAP Op Margin | -- | -- | -- | -- | 14% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 28%* |
| Non-GAAP Diluted EPS | $2.06 | $2.15 | $2.17 | $2.29 | $2.29 | $2.62 | $2.67 | $2.85 | $2.99* |
| Non-GAAP EPS YoY % | -- | -- | -- | -- | +11.2% | +21.9% | +23.0% | +24.5% | +30.6% |
| GAAP Diluted EPS | -- | -- | -- | -- | $0.70 | $1.66 | $1.74 | $1.82 | $2.32* |
| Free Cash Flow ($M, Qtr) | $487 | $203 | $199 | $678 | $556 | $451 | $430 | $972 | $876* |
| FCF YoY % | -- | -- | -- | -- | +14.2% | +122.2% | +116.1% | +43.4% | +57.6% |
*FQ1 FY27 actuals sourced from ADSK Q1 FY27 8-K press release (May 28, 2026). Historical quarters (FQ1 FY25–FQ4 FY26) link to Daloopa source cells. Q1 FY27 EPS YoY calculated vs $2.29 prior-year quarter; GAAP EPS YoY +$1.62 (per press release).
Trajectory verdict: Revenue YoY remains in the high-teens for a 4th straight quarter (+15% / +17% / +18% / +19% / +18%). The slight decel from +19% in Q4 to +18% in Q1 is the EXPECTED fade of the new-transaction-model tailwind from +5pp to +3.5pp; underlying CC growth at +16% is roughly steady with Q4 (+19% CC, with a similar transaction tailwind in there). The "real" underlying organic growth (stripping transaction-model noise of ~3.5pp from revenue / ~1.5pp from billings) is running ~12-14% revenue and ~14% billings -- consistent with low-double-digit FY27 CC guide. cRPO +18% slowed from +23% prior quarter (reflects shorter contract durations as multiyear discounting reduced -- a deliberate price-realization trade), but billings momentum carried the quarter.
Data sourced from Daloopa (historical) and Autodesk Q1 FY2027 press release (current quarter).
| Metric | Q1 FY27 Guide (Feb 26, 2026) | Consensus | Actual | vs Guide | vs Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $1,885-$1,900 | ~$1,893 | $1,934 | BEAT high end +$34M (+1.8%) | BEAT +$41M (+2.2%) |
| Revenue YoY % | +15-16% | ~+15.9% | +18.4% | +250bps | +250bps |
| Constant-Currency Rev % | ~+14% | n/a | +16% | +200bps | -- |
| Billings ($M) | n/a (not Q-guided) | ~$1,570 | $1,688 | n/a | BEAT +$118M (+7.5%) |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin | 37.5%-38.5% | ~37.5% | 39% | BEAT high end +50bps | +150bps |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $2.82-$2.86 | ~$2.71 | $2.99 | BEAT high end +$0.13 (+4.5%) | BEAT +$0.28 (+10.3%) |
| GAAP EPS | $1.68-$1.83 | ~$1.66 | $2.32 | BEAT high end +$0.49 (+27%) | BEAT +$0.66 (+40%) |
| Free Cash Flow | not Q-guided | n/a | $876M | n/a | +58% YoY vs $556M Q1 FY26 |
Headline: Underlying business momentum tracked "a bit better" than guidance assumptions (Janesh Moorjani's words). The new transaction model contributed +3.5pp of the +18% revenue growth -- in line with what was telegraphed last quarter, so the operating-business beat is real (not optical). EPS upside levered through op-margin expansion (+200bps YoY) and SBC discipline (target <10% of revenue in FY27).
Data sourced from Autodesk Q1 FY27 8-K and earnings deck.
| Quarter | Guide Mid ($M) | Actual ($M) | Variance | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 FY25 | ~1,400 | 1,417 | +1.2% | BEAT |
| FQ2 FY25 | ~1,475 | 1,505 | +2.0% | BEAT |
| FQ3 FY25 | ~1,560 | 1,570 | +0.6% | BEAT |
| FQ4 FY25 | ~1,628 | 1,639 | +0.7% | BEAT |
| FQ1 FY26 | ~1,605 | 1,633 | +1.7% | BEAT |
| FQ2 FY26 | ~1,730 | 1,763 | +1.9% | BEAT |
| FQ3 FY26 | ~1,820 | 1,853 | +1.8% | BEAT |
| FQ4 FY26 | ~1,920 | 1,957 | +1.9% | BEAT |
| FQ1 FY27 | ~1,893 | 1,934 | +2.2% | BEAT |
L9Q Revenue Beat Rate: 100% | Average magnitude: +1.6% | Magnitude rising: the last 5 prints have widened to +1.7-2.2% vs sub-+1% prior. Pattern remains: consistent beater, magnitude improving. Same dynamic on EPS -- 9 straight beats on Non-GAAP EPS with the Q1 FY27 beat (+10.3% vs cons) being one of the largest of the streak.
New Guidance Provided (per Janesh Moorjani, CFO):
| Metric | Prior Guide (Q4 FY26 print, Feb 26 2026) | New Guide (Q1 FY27 print) | Delta | Implied YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ2 FY27 Revenue | n/a (new) | $2,005M-$2,015M (mid $2,010M) | NEW | +14% YoY vs $1,763M |
| FQ2 FY27 GAAP EPS | n/a | $1.84-$1.97 | NEW | -- |
| FQ2 FY27 Non-GAAP EPS | n/a | $3.10-$3.14 (mid $3.12) | NEW | +19% YoY vs $2.62 |
| FY27 Billings ($M) | $8,400-$8,580 (mid $8,490) | $8,505-$8,580 (mid $8,543) | +$53M mid; low end +$105M | +9-10% YoY |
| FY27 Revenue ($M) | $8,100-$8,170 (mid $8,135) | $8,155-$8,215 (mid $8,185) | +$50M at midpoint | +13.2%-14.0% YoY |
| FY27 GAAP Op Margin | ~26-28% | 26%-28% | maintained | -- |
| FY27 Non-GAAP Op Margin | 38.5%-39% (mid 38.75%) | ~39% | +25bps | -- |
| FY27 GAAP EPS | -- | $8.07-$8.63 | NEW | -- |
| FY27 Non-GAAP EPS | $12.29-$12.56 (mid $12.43) | $12.40-$12.65 (mid $12.53) | +$0.10 at midpoint | +19-21% YoY |
| FY27 Free Cash Flow ($M) | $2,700-$2,800 (mid $2,750) | $2,725-$2,800 (mid $2,763) | +$13M at midpoint; low end +$25M | +13-16% YoY |
Note: None of the raised FY27 ranges include MaintainX impact. Janesh: "We will include the impact of the acquisition in our guidance after the transaction closes" (expected to close later this fiscal year). Implied 2H FY27 trajectory: Q1 reported $1,934 + Q2 mid $2,010 = $3,944 1H. FY27 mid $8,185 implies 2H = $4,241 (+7.5% vs 1H -- seasonally normal). 2H billings step-function is bigger ($1,688 Q1 + ~$1,840 Q2 implied vs Q4 EBA-renewal cycle that pushed Q4 FY26 to $2,804).
Management Tone Shift vs Q4 FY26 Call:
| Topic | Q4 FY26 Tone (Feb 26, 2026) | Q1 FY27 Tone (May 28, 2026) | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY27 framework | "One of the most far-reaching transformations in enterprise software" | "Underlying momentum consistent with prior quarters and a bit better than the assumptions we built into our guidance range" | Cooler / more operator |
| Sales reorganization | "Operationalizing through FY27" | "Proceeding as planned. Overall impact to new subscription growth was within the range of our expectations" | Validating |
| New transaction model | "+5pp tailwind FY26, fading" | "+3.5pp Q1, ~2pp Q2, ~1.5pp full year average. We will talk about it less as that noise fades" | Phasing out |
| AI monetization | "Tiered AECO Collections" | Probabilistic gen + deterministic validation; Autodesk Assistant in market, MCP infra harness layer for frontier models; 3D foundation models | Much more articulated; technical depth increased |
| AECO | $3.6B, +22% YoY | Forma for Construction "accelerated again" -- AECO $970M Q1 +20% reported / +18% CC | Sustained |
| Capital allocation | Buybacks ~50% of FCF | Same + "MaintainX cornerstone, $3.6B all-cash" | Major M&A pivot |
| MaintainX | n/a (not announced) | "Most important deal" -- 5x prior largest, 3.6B all cash; construction playbook applied to operations | NEW STRATEGIC DIRECTION |
The CEO Andrew Anagnost spent his opening remarks entirely on operations / MaintainX strategy -- a tonal pivot from prior calls that opened with AECO / Forma. CFO Janesh Moorjani kept the financial-discipline cadence intact.
| Deal Term | Value |
|---|---|
| Transaction value | $3.6 billion (all cash) |
| Funding | $1.6B cash on hand + $2.0B new debt financing |
| MaintainX expected ARR (CY2026) | >$135 million |
| MaintainX growth rate | >50% YoY |
| Implied multiple | ~27x current-year ARR / ~18x NTM revenue |
| Largest prior ADSK acquisition | ~$200M (multiple of construction-cycle tuck-ins) |
| Multiple of largest prior deal | ~18x |
| Expected close | Later in FY27 (subject to regulatory approval) |
| Integration leader | Steve Hooper (SVP of Autodesk Operations Solutions / former Fusion scaling exec) |
| FY27 GAAP/non-GAAP guidance | NOT INCLUDED -- guide post-close |
| FY27 op margin framework impact | Dilution absorbed within unchanged ~39% guide |
| FY29 op margin framework | Maintained (~40%+) |
The pattern ADSK is repeating: Per Janesh -- "in construction, we deployed about $1.8 billion of capital through acquisitions. And we've built a business that's close to $600 million of revenue LTM, and that's growing more than 20% here in Q1." MaintainX is the equivalent "cornerstone" for Operations -- the play is to add tuck-ins around it over time, integrate quickly into AOS (Autodesk Operations Solutions), and let revenue compound. The TAM Andrew cited was $40B for operations.
Why the stock fell despite the print beat: Two issues -- (1) valuation -- 27x ARR for a single asset draws "premium price" criticism in a software-multiple-compressed market; Brent Thill (Cantor) literally said "in a world where software multiples have collapsed pretty significantly, you're paying a pretty big premium"; (2) incremental debt -- $2B new debt is meaningful for a company that has been buyback-heavy / debt-light. Pre-market ADSK was -5% (~$13 to ~$227); closed May 29 at $231.31. The market is paying for proof: subscribers, NRR uplift, and AOS revenue acceleration over the next 4-6 quarters.
By Channel / Model:
Make is the fastest-growing channel (Construction / Operations / Manufacturing software) -- consistent with AECO-led structural story. Make accelerated again per Andrew. Design carries the ballast.
By Product Family:
| Product Family | Q1 FY27 Revenue ($M) | YoY (Reported) | YoY (CC) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AECO | $970 | +20% | +18% | Construction Cloud / Forma -- the structural growth engine; data centers, infra, EM resilient |
| Manufacturing | $367 | +19% | +17% | Fusion growth accelerated; PDM integration deepening |
| AutoCAD / AutoCAD LT | $474 | +15% | +14% | Steady installed-base monetization; price realization |
| Media & Entertainment | $86 | +13% | +12% | Smallest, least strategically important |
AECO is now ~50% of total revenue and growing fastest -- the +20% reported / +18% CC growth is a slight modest deceleration from +22% / +22% in FY26, but well above company average. Forma for Construction (rebranded from Autodesk Construction Cloud) showing accelerated growth with owners and designers.
By Geography (per Q&A commentary): Americas, EMEA, and APAC all grew 16%-17% YoY -- balanced. EMEA Q1 was sequentially weaker vs Q4 due to (a) timing -- Q4 FY26 had strong upfront revenue + peak new-transaction-model tailwind in EMEA (lagged Americas by 1Q), (b) sales reorg taking longer to operationalize in EMEA given local labor laws. Janesh views EMEA as a "very important region" with great long-term opportunity in mature + emerging markets.
Sales reorg (announced February 2026):
- Proceeding as planned in Q1 -- per Janesh: "Q1 played out in line with the assumptions that we had baked into the guidance for the new subscriptions. We saw strength everywhere else"
- Upfront revenue "less impacted than we expected" -- a positive signal
- Renewal rates remained strong -- 0 concentration / attrition flags from channel
- Forward expectation: "gradual normalization, not a step function improvement looking out to Q2 to Q4"
- EMEA takes longer due to local labor laws / consultation requirements
New transaction model (direct-to-customer billing):
- Q1 FY27 tailwind: +3.5pp to revenue, +1.5pp to billings -- in line with what was disclosed in February
- Q2 FY27 expected tailwind: ~2pp to revenue
- FY27 full-year average: ~1.5pp to revenue
- "Multi-year-to-annual contract shift" mostly completed in Q1 -- billings transition noise will diminish materially
- BUT -- ongoing reduction in multi-year discounting will continue to weigh on unbilled deferred revenue / total RPO growth (price realization trade-off)
- Total RPO Q1 +9% slower than current RPO +18% precisely because of this shorter-contract-duration dynamic
| Q1 FY27 Capital Returns | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares repurchased | ~1.9 million |
| Repurchase dollars | $448 million |
| FY27 expected buyback | "similar to FY26 in total dollars" (~$1.9B FY26 baseline) |
| Buyback as % of FCF | "approximately 50%" target |
| MaintainX cash use | $1.6B from balance sheet |
| MaintainX debt | $2.0B incremental |
| Net incremental debt post-close | $2.0B |
Capital framework "unchanged" -- (1) organic R&D first (cloud platform + AI), (2) targeted tuck-ins, (3) buybacks for the remainder. MaintainX is described as a one-off "cornerstone" plus future tuck-ins -- not a change of capital strategy.
| Analyst | Topic | Answer Quality | Key Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saket Kalia (Barclays) | MaintainX strategic fit + construction playbook analogy | Strong | Andrew framed it as $40B TAM unlock + digital-twin progression from static -> dynamic -> predictive. Janesh detailed the "construction playbook" 1.8B->600M LTM analogy |
| Jay Vleeschhouwer (Griffin) | AEC data model deployment + customer homegrown tools | Solid | Production deployments of AEC + Mfg data models progressing with customers; MaintainX adds the "asset data" piece. Homegrown-tools trend acknowledged but ADSK plays as platform "harness" |
| Adam Borg (Raymond James) | GTM change disruption + EMEA detail | Strong | Channel partner disruption "in line with expectations"; EMEA-specific reorg delay explained by local labor laws; long-term EMEA confidence intact |
| Brent Thill (Cantor Fitzgerald) | MaintainX valuation premium | Diplomatic | Janesh: "high-growth market-leading platform... defining the next generation of operations software... rev multiple will compress pretty quickly on a forward basis as the business scales." Did NOT cite specific synergies / NPV. Confirmed it's the largest deal ever |
| Jason Celino (KeyBanc) | MaintainX user base + FY29 margin framework | Strong on user base; Acknowledged on margin | Industrial / commercial / institutional facilities operators; some consumer overlap (e.g., Marriott, Hilton). FY29 margin framework "absorbed" the MaintainX dilution; tuck-ins acceptable |
| Taylor McGinnis (UBS) | Implied 2H billings growth + RPO/price dynamics | Detailed | 2H decel reflects sales reorg pace + multi-year-to-annual discount trade-off. RPO slower because contract durations shortened (deliberate pricing decision) |
| Alexei Gogolev (JPM) | Multi-year vs annual contract dynamics + AI roadmap | Adequate | Customer choice = renewal-rate confidence + price realization trade. AI roadmap: MCP harness layer first, then 3D foundation models -- Autodesk Assistant for Fusion API scripting already in market |
| Joe Vruwink (Baird) | Claude integration / MCP as customer acquisition channel + MaintainX vs prior failed downstream-ops players | Constructive | MCP / Assistant as new acquisition channel acknowledged but early. MaintainX win factor: ADSK has the data + context loop that prior attempts lacked |
| Hoi-Fung Wong (Morgan Stanley) | CC billings guide clarification + GTM kinks | Tight | Rounding effects; no material change. GTM no notable course-correct items |
| Michael Turrin (Wells Fargo) | State of replatforming + MaintainX confidence | Strong | "Foundation is now set" -- pricing model done, replatforming through, AI capabilities deploying. MaintainX comes in on top of completed transformation |
| Joshua Tilton (Wolfe) | Forma Build repackaging / pricing + M&A confidence given peer track record | Honest | Acknowledged price-point change; framed as "land + expand" entry-level for Forma. Differentiated M&A confidence from peers by citing the proven construction-acquisition record |
| Tyler Radke (Citi) | EBA customer data + AI usage permissions | Solid | Customers increasingly willing to share data for shared AI value (but selectively); ADSK building federated training infrastructure |
| Clarke Jeffries (Piper) | MaintainX subscription -> consumption / go-to-market expansion | Forward-looking | "Consumption layer" being designed (digital twins, agentic workflows); GTM expansion to owner-operator presence likely required investment |
Deflected / weak answers: Brent Thill's valuation-premium question got a framework response (TAM, strategic rationale, future multiple compression) rather than a hard NPV or expected synergies number -- analysts may push harder on this through coming weeks via dialogue. None of the questions on FY27 implied 2H billings deceleration got a "do not worry" answer beyond "sales reorg pace + price-realization trade."
- Total RPO +9% YoY vs Current RPO +18% YoY -- The gap is intentional per management (shorter contract durations as multi-year discounting reduced). But the optical decel in Total RPO will become a recurring bear talking point unless current-RPO growth holds at +18%.
- Billings reported +18% vs CC +15% -- ~3pp FX tailwind in Q1; not flagged as a concern but worth monitoring if dollar weakens further.
- MaintainX 50%+ growth assumption -- ADSK is paying 27x ARR on the assumption MaintainX continues growing >50% post-close. SaaS deceleration risk is real if integration disrupts product velocity.
- FY27 EPS guide +$0.10 at midpoint with revenue +$50M raise -- implied incremental margin is ~22% on the raise, suggesting some reinvestment / acquisition prep absorbed. Worth watching for sandbagging vs incremental investment.
No outright contradictions identified between Q1 FY27 commentary and Q4 FY26 framework. Direct-billing model "settled" -- consistent with Q4 messaging. Sales reorg "in line" -- consistent. AECO leadership -- consistent.
Macro commentary from the call:
- Macroeconomic environment assumed "broadly stable" through FY27 -- no recession baked in, no upgrade
- AEC end-markets: data centers + infrastructure remain "robust"; emerging markets strong; commercial real estate the soft spot (offsetting from AECO outperformance)
- Manufacturing: customers "demanding convergence as they invest in digital transformation" -- consistent industrial-software demand
- Tariffs: no explicit mention this quarter -- a soft positive vs the Q4 setup where tariffs were a watch item
- Currency: ~3pp FX tailwind to billings/revenue in Q1 (~13bp tailwind to growth) -- supportive for global SaaS reporters this quarter
Specific company / customer mentions:
| Type | Company | Read-Through |
|---|---|---|
| Customer / win | Dome Construction (ENR 400 GC) | Replaced legacy point solutions with Forma for Construction -- positive for Forma penetration |
| Customer / win | Essex Services Group (UK building services) | Multi-year EA for Forma Build on data center / commercial projects -- positive for AECO data-center exposure |
| Customer / win | Berlin Water (Germany utility) | Expanded Forma Design Collaboration for water infrastructure -- positive for infra spend |
| Customer / renewal | Loh Services (Friedhelm Loh Group) | Renewed + expanded EA -- positive for manufacturing EA cohort |
| Customer / renewal | US automotive OEM (unnamed) | Renewed EA for factory-of-future strategy across 14 factories -- positive for AECO+Mfg convergence |
| Customer / win | Schiedel (chimney systems mfg) | Inventor + Vault + Fusion integrated workflow -- positive for Fusion attach |
| Adjacent / context | Anthropic (Claude) | Andrew mentioned "Claude for Creative Work" in context of MCP partnerships; positive read-through for Anthropic enterprise positioning |
| Competition / context | MaintainX competitors (IBM Maximo, eMaint/Fluke, Infor EAM, SAP PM) | All implicit competitors now squarely in ADSK crosshairs -- negative read for legacy CMMS vendors |
| Peer / contrast | Software peers attempting large M&A | Joshua Tilton noted peer M&A has not "gone well" recently -- ADSK explicitly differentiated by citing construction-acquisition track record |
| Customer / cited | Prestige Group (India) | India / emerging market AEC win -- positive read for ENGH-india infra spend |
| Customer / cited | Arup | Standardizing on Forma -- positive read for tier-1 design firm cloud adoption |
- MaintainX close & integration cadence -- deal expected later in FY27. Investor focus will be on early signals of cross-sell into ADSK customer base + AOS revenue start
- Q2 FY27 print (late August 2026) -- guide is $2,005-$2,015M revenue / $3.10-$3.14 EPS. Beat at the consistent +1.7-2.2% magnitude implies $2,045M / $3.20 EPS
- 2H FY27 billings step-function -- $1.7B Q1 + ~$1.8B Q2 + back-half EBA cohort needs to add up to $8.5-$8.6B FY guide. The Q4 EBA renewal cohort is the biggest swing factor
- AI monetization disclosure -- ADSK has stopped short of breaking out AI ARR / Autodesk Assistant attach. A FY27 commercial milestone disclosure is increasingly likely
- Sales reorg productivity ramp -- "gradual normalization Q2 -> Q4" -- watch for new-subscription growth rate inflection
- Stock valuation reset -- after the MaintainX-related ~5% pre-market sell-off, ADSK trades ~17-18x FY27 non-GAAP EPS ($231 / ~$12.53 mid) and ~21x FY27 FCF ($231 * ~215M shares = ~$50B market cap / $2.76B FCF mid). Below historical ~25x average -- a re-rate catalyst exists if MaintainX integration goes well
Data sourced from Daloopa (historical fundamentals), Autodesk Q1 FY2027 Form 8-K press release (current quarter), Autodesk Q1 FY27 earnings call transcript (May 28, 2026), and Q1 FY27 earnings deck.