Autodesk — 7.4/10 — $238.08
Autodesk is the dominant design software company serving architecture, engineering, construction (AEC), manufacturing (MFG), and media & entertainment (M&E). The company holds commanding market positions: Revit commands ~38% of the BIM market, AutoCAD holds ~66% of 2D CAD, and Autodesk broadly holds ~29% of the total CAD market. These positions constitute a soft oligopoly in AEC/BIM software, with Autodesk + Bentley + Nemetschek + Trimble controlling ~60% of the market.
FY2026 was the strongest year in four years. Revenue reached $7.2B (+17.5%), with AEC growing 22% and manufacturing accelerating to 16%. Non-GAAP operating margins broke a 3-year plateau at 36% to reach 38%. Free cash flow surged 54% to $2.4B. Non-GAAP EPS grew 23% to $10.43. Management raised guidance every quarter and beat high-end targets across all key metrics.
The stock is anomalously cheap. At $238, the forward P/E of ~19x is the lowest in the AEC/construction software peer group (BSY ~35x, PTC ~22x, TRMB ~30x, avg ~29x). The stock is down 28% from its 52-week high of $329, trading near 52-week lows, with short interest surging 36% month-over-month. This valuation compression has occurred while fundamentals are actually accelerating -- a textbook worse-to-better setup.
Key risks are real but potentially priced in. Tariff-driven construction cost inflation (+8-14%) could hit AEC customers. The January 2026 go-to-market restructuring (7% headcount cut) creates near-term billings disruption risk. FY2027 revenue is guided to decelerate to ~13%. The new transaction model creates billings opacity.
| Price | $238.08 | FY26 Revenue | $7.2B (+17.5% YoY) |
| Market Cap | ~$50.2B | Forward P/E (Non-GAAP) | ~19x ($12.4 FY27E) |
| 52-Week Range | $215.01 - $329.09 | Non-GAAP Op Margin | 38% (path to 41% by FY29) |
| CEO | Andrew Anagnost (since 2017) | FY26 FCF | $2.4B (+54% YoY) |
| BIM Market Share (Revit) | ~38% (#1) | Recurring Revenue | 97% of total |
| Dimension | Score | Weight | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Trends | 8 | 25% | 2.00 |
| Thematic Exposure | 8 | 25% | 2.00 |
| Management Quality | 7 | 20% | 1.40 |
| Investor Sentiment (Inverted) | 7 | 15% | 1.05 |
| Concerns / Risks | 6 | 15% | 0.90 |
| Composite | 100% | 7.4 |
ADSK receives a composite score of 7.4/10, reflecting a dominant AEC/BIM franchise with accelerating growth trading at an anomalously cheap valuation relative to peers.
Bull case ($300-330): FY27 earnings ramp confirms ($12.4+ non-GAAP EPS), AI monetization gains traction, margins expand to 39%+, construction spending proves resilient. Multiple re-rates toward peer average of ~29x forward P/E.
Base case ($250-280): Delivers within FY27 guidance (~13% revenue growth, 38.5-39% margins), continued beat-and-raise cadence, gradual re-rating as market recognizes valuation disconnect. FCF of $2.7-2.8B supports buyback accretion.
Bear case ($190-215): Tariffs hit construction starts, GTM restructuring causes billings disruption beyond guidance, FY27 EPS misses the step-up, multiple compresses further to 16-17x.
Bottom line: This is a high-quality oligopoly business firing on most cylinders -- revenue accelerating, margins expanding, FCF growing -- trading at the cheapest multiple in its peer group while fundamentals improve. The worse-to-better sentiment inversion is genuine. The key risk is near-term execution through the GTM restructuring and construction cycle sensitivity.
Key catalysts and monitoring points:
- FY27 Q1 execution (May 2026): First quarter post-GTM restructuring. Billings and revenue trends will reveal whether disruption is contained to guidance.
- Margin trajectory: FY27 guided 38.5-39% non-GAAP OPM. Progress toward 41% by FY29 is the key long-term promise.
- AI monetization signals: Autodesk AI Assistant, Forma platform adoption, consumption-based revenue mix trending above 17%.
- Construction spending resilience: Tariff impact on AEC end markets -- watch for data center, infrastructure, and industrial offsets to commercial softness.
- MFG acceleration sustainability: Q4 FY26 hit 20%+ growth. If this sustains, it diversifies the growth story beyond AEC.
- Buyback pace: $1.4B in FY26 (~50% of FCF). Management buying more aggressively on price weakness is a positive signal.
For the full analysis, see the Business Model, Financials, and Concerns & Risks pages.
Concerns, Catalysts & Risks -- full analysis
Accumulate -- AEC/BIM oligopoly with accelerating growth at anomalously cheap 19x forward P/E. Stock down 28% near 52-week lows while fundamentals accelerating (revenue +17.5%, FCF +54%, margins expanding). Genuine worse-to-better sentiment inversion.
The 19x forward P/E is the cheapest in the peer group by a wide margin (BSY ~35x, PTC ~22x, TRMB ~30x, peer avg ~29x). This valuation compression has occurred while revenue growth accelerated +600bps, margins broke out of a 3-year plateau, and FCF surged 54%.
Monitor: (1) FY27 Q1 execution through GTM restructuring, (2) construction spending resilience amid tariffs, (3) AI monetization traction. If FY27 Q1 confirms the trajectory, the risk-reward shifts further in favor of a more aggressive position.