Financial Trends -- 8/10
ADSK revenue re-accelerated sharply in FY2026: +17.5% to $7.2B (up from +11.5% in FY2025),
with consistent quarterly acceleration from 15.2% in FQ1 to 19.4% in FQ4. Both major segments
are inflecting -- AEC at +22% (+820bps acceleration) and Manufacturing at +16% (+410bps).
Non-GAAP operating margin broke a 3-year plateau at 36% to reach 38%, driving Non-GAAP EPS
+23% to $10.43. Free cash flow surged 54% to $2.4B. NRR stable at ~110%, recurring revenue 97%.
Score held below 9 by guided FY2027 deceleration to ~13%, NTM accounting noise, and GTM
restructuring execution risk.
Weight: 25%
FY2026 Revenue
$7.2B
+17.5% YoY | Accelerating +600bps
Non-GAAP Op Margin
38%
Broke 3yr plateau at 36% | Path to 41%
Non-GAAP EPS (FY2026)
$10.43
+23.1% YoY | Triple benefit
Free Cash Flow (FY2026)
$2.4B
+54% YoY | $2.7-2.8B guided FY2027
Annual Financial Summary (FY ends Jan 31)
| Metric | FY2022 (CY2021) | FY2023 (CY2022) | FY2024 (CY2023) | FY2025 (CY2024) | FY2026 (CY2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $4,386M | $5,005M | $5,497M | $6,131M | $7,206M |
| YoY Growth | — | 14.1% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 17.5% |
| Subscription Revenue | $4,233M | $4,716M | $5,170M | $5,758M | $6,776M |
| Sub. YoY Growth | — | 11.9% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 17.9% |
| AEC Revenue | $1,960M | $2,278M | $2,580M | $2,937M | $3,583M |
| AEC YoY Growth | — | 16.2% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 22.0% |
| Manufacturing Revenue | $876M | $978M | $1,063M | $1,189M | $1,379M |
| MFG YoY Growth | — | 11.6% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 16.0% |
| Billings | $4,816M | $5,795M | $5,181M | — | $7,771M |
| GAAP Op Margin | 14% | 20% | 21% | 22% | 22% |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin | 32% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 38% |
| GAAP Diluted EPS | $2.24 | $3.78 | $4.19 | $5.12 | $5.23 |
| Non-GAAP Diluted EPS | $5.07 | $6.63 | $7.60 | $8.47 | $10.43 |
| Non-GAAP EPS YoY | — | +30.8% | +14.6% | +11.4% | +23.1% |
| Free Cash Flow | $1,475M | $2,031M | $1,282M | $1,567M | $2,409M |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 222M | 218M | 216M | 217M | 215M |
| Recurring Rev % | 96% | 98% | 98% | 97% | 97% |
Key trends -- annual
- Revenue growth re-accelerated +600bps: FY2026 at 17.5% vs 11.5% in FY2025 and 9.8% in FY2024. Strongest annual growth in 4 years. ~3-4pp attributable to new transaction model, implying ~13-14% organic growth -- still accelerating
- Margin expansion resumed: Non-GAAP operating margin broke out of 36% plateau (FY2023-FY2025) to 38% in FY2026. Management guiding 38.5-39% for FY2027 with long-term target of 41% by FY2029
- EPS acceleration to +23%: Driven by revenue acceleration + margin expansion + share buybacks ($1.4B in FY2026). Non-GAAP EPS compounded from $5.07 to $10.43 over 5 years
- FCF inflection: $2.4B (+54% YoY) after depressed FY2024 ($1.3B) from annual billing transition. $2.7-2.8B guided for FY2027 (+12-16%)
- Share count declining modestly: 222M to 215M over 5 years despite $1.4B+ annual buyback spend
Quarterly Revenue Trajectory ($M, 12 Quarters)
| Metric | CQ1 23 (FQ1 24) | CQ2 23 (FQ2 24) | CQ3 23 (FQ3 24) | CQ4 23 (FQ4 24) | CQ1 24 (FQ1 25) | CQ2 24 (FQ2 25) | CQ3 24 (FQ3 25) | CQ4 24 (FQ4 25) | CQ1 25 (FQ1 26) | CQ2 25 (FQ2 26) | CQ3 25 (FQ3 26) | CQ4 25 (FQ4 26) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1,269M | $1,345M | $1,414M | $1,469M | $1,417M | $1,505M | $1,570M | $1,639M | $1,633M | $1,763M | $1,853M | $1,957M |
| YoY Growth | — | — | — | — | 11.7% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 15.2% | 17.1% | 18.0% | 19.4% |
| Sub. Revenue | $1,207M | $1,284M | $1,326M | $1,353M | $1,341M | $1,419M | $1,466M | $1,532M | $1,540M | $1,667M | $1,742M | $1,827M |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin | 32% | 36% | 39% | 36% | 35% | 37% | 36% | 37% | 37% | 39% | 38% | 38% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $1.55 | $1.91 | $2.07 | $2.09 | $1.87 | $2.15 | $2.17 | $2.29 | $2.29 | $2.62 | $2.67 | $2.85 |
Key trends -- quarterly revenue
- Consistent sequential acceleration in FY2026: FQ1 15.2% -> FQ2 17.1% -> FQ3 18.0% -> FQ4 19.4% (+420bps Q1 to Q4). Rare for a $7B+ revenue company
- FQ4 FY2026 at 19.4% was the fastest growth quarter: Revenue reached $1.96B in Q4, implying a ~$7.8B+ annualized run rate
- Non-GAAP EPS ramped from $2.29 in FQ1 to $2.85 in FQ4: Seasonal plus margin expansion. FY2026 total of $10.43 beat the high end of initial guidance
Segment Revenue ($M, 12 Quarters)
| Metric | CQ1 23 (FQ1 24) | CQ2 23 (FQ2 24) | CQ3 23 (FQ3 24) | CQ4 23 (FQ4 24) | CQ1 24 (FQ1 25) | CQ2 24 (FQ2 25) | CQ3 24 (FQ3 25) | CQ4 24 (FQ4 25) | CQ1 25 (FQ1 26) | CQ2 25 (FQ2 26) | CQ3 25 (FQ3 26) | CQ4 25 (FQ4 26) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEC Revenue | $582M | $627M | $675M | $696M | $674M | $713M | $751M | $799M | $809M | $878M | $921M | $975M |
| AEC YoY | — | — | — | — | 15.8% | 13.7% | 11.3% | 14.8% | 20.0% | 23.1% | 22.6% | 22.0% |
| MFG Revenue | $246M | $256M | $269M | $292M | $268M | $296M | $307M | $318M | $309M | $334M | $355M | $381M |
| MFG YoY | — | — | — | — | 8.9% | 15.6% | 14.1% | 8.9% | 15.3% | 12.8% | 15.6% | 19.8% |
Key trends -- segments
- AEC is the growth engine: Largest segment (~50% of revenue) accelerated from +13.3% in FY2024 to +22.0% in FY2026 (+820bps). Driven by data center construction, infrastructure spending, and Forma/Construction Cloud adoption
- Manufacturing accelerating: +8.7% in FY2024 -> +11.9% in FY2025 -> +16.0% in FY2026 (+410bps). FQ4 at +19.8% was the strongest quarter, driven by Fusion adoption and multi-seat expansion
- AEC quarterly trajectory remarkable: 20.0% -> 23.1% -> 22.6% -> 22.0% -- sustained above 20% for all 4 quarters of FY2026
- Multiple hyperscaler and owner wins cited: Data center demand partially offsetting commercial real estate softness
Profitability and Cash Flow (12 Quarters)
| Metric | CQ1 23 (FQ1 24) | CQ2 23 (FQ2 24) | CQ3 23 (FQ3 24) | CQ4 23 (FQ4 24) | CQ1 24 (FQ1 25) | CQ2 24 (FQ2 25) | CQ3 24 (FQ3 25) | CQ4 24 (FQ4 25) | CQ1 25 (FQ1 26) | CQ2 25 (FQ2 26) | CQ3 25 (FQ3 26) | CQ4 25 (FQ4 26) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAAP Op Margin | 17% | 19% | 24% | 21% | 21% | 23% | 22% | 22% | 14% | 25% | 25% | 22% |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin | 32% | 36% | 39% | 36% | 35% | 37% | 36% | 37% | 37% | 39% | 38% | 38% |
| GAAP EPS | $0.75 | $1.03 | $1.12 | $1.31 | $1.16 | $1.30 | $1.27 | $1.40 | $0.70 | $1.46 | $1.60 | $1.48 |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $1.55 | $1.91 | $2.07 | $2.09 | $1.87 | $2.15 | $2.17 | $2.29 | $2.29 | $2.62 | $2.67 | $2.85 |
| FCF ($M) | $714M | $128M | $13M | $427M | $487M | $203M | $199M | $678M | $556M | $451M | $430M | $972M |
| Billings ($M) | $1,172M | $1,095M | $1,204M | $1,710M | $1,115M | — | $1,537M | $2,109M | $1,434M | $1,678M | $1,855M | $2,804M |
Key trends -- profitability and cash flow
- Non-GAAP margin expansion in FY2026: Averaged 38% vs 36% in prior 3 years. FQ2 hit 39%. Guided to 38.5-39% for FY2027
- GAAP margin depressed in FQ1 FY2026 (14%): Restructuring charges from January 2026 GTM reorganization. Recovered to 22-25% in subsequent quarters
- FCF seasonally strong in Q4: FQ4 FY2026 at $972M (+43% YoY). Full-year $2,409M (+54% YoY). Q4 seasonality driven by billings cycle
- Billings surging: FQ4 FY2026 at $2.8B, FY2026 total $7.77B. Includes ~$500M+ from new transaction model contribution
- FCF rebuild after FY2024 trough: FY2024 FCF of $1.28B was depressed by annual billing transition; now fully recovered and accelerating
Key KPIs (12 Quarters)
| Metric | CQ1 23 (FQ1 24) | CQ2 23 (FQ2 24) | CQ3 23 (FQ3 24) | CQ4 23 (FQ4 24) | CQ1 24 (FQ1 25) | CQ2 24 (FQ2 25) | CQ3 24 (FQ3 25) | CQ4 24 (FQ4 25) | CQ1 25 (FQ1 26) | CQ2 25 (FQ2 26) | CQ3 25 (FQ3 26) | CQ4 25 (FQ4 26) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recurring Rev % | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 98% | 97% | 98% |
| NRR (approx.) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ~110% | ~110% | ~110% | ~110% |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 216M | 215M | 216M | 216M | 217M | — | 217M | — | 216M | 215M | 215M | 214M |
NRR stable at ~110% across all 4 quarters of FY2026.
Recurring revenue consistently 97-98% of total. Share count declining modestly from
222M (FY2022) to 215M (FY2026) despite $1.4B in annual buybacks -- dilution from SBC
partially offsets repurchases. Management targeting SBC below 10% of revenue in FY2027.
Acceleration / Deceleration Analysis
| Metric | FY2023 (CY2022) | FY2024 (CY2023) | FY2025 (CY2024) | FY2026 (CY2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY | 14.1% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 17.5% |
| Delta vs Prior Yr | — | -430 bps | +170 bps | +600 bps |
| Non-GAAP OPM | 36% | 36% | 36% | 38% |
| OPM Delta vs Prior Yr | +400 bps | 0 bps | 0 bps | +200 bps |
| Non-GAAP EPS YoY | +30.8% | +14.6% | +11.4% | +23.1% |
- FY2026 revenue growth accelerated +600bps YoY: The strongest annual growth in 4 years. ~3-4pp attributable to new transaction model, implying ~13-14% organic/underlying growth
- Non-GAAP OPM expansion resumed in FY2026: After 3 years flat at 36%, margin expanded +200bps to 38%. Guided to 38.5-39% for FY2027 with FY2029 target of 41% (reported) / 45% (underlying)
- EPS growth re-accelerated to +23%: From a low of +11.4% in FY2025. Triple benefit of revenue acceleration + margin expansion + share buybacks
FY2027 Guidance Summary
| Metric | FY2027 Low | FY2027 High | Implied YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | $8.10B | $8.17B | 12.4% - 13.4% |
| Billings ($B) | $8.48B | $8.58B | 9.1% - 10.4% |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin | 38.5% | 39.0% | +50 to +100 bps |
| Free Cash Flow ($B) | $2.7B | $2.8B | +12% to +16% |
- Revenue guide implies deceleration from 17.5% to ~13%: Management embedded conservatism for go-to-market restructuring disruption (customer-facing sales roles cut Jan 2026). FY2026 also had ~3.5pp NTM tailwind that diminishes to ~1.5pp in FY2027
- Underlying organic growth guided ~10-11%: Roughly in line with FY2025/FY2026 underlying pace
- Disruption expected in H1 FY2027 with recovery in H2: Management explicitly flagged near-term risk
- Margin expansion continues: 38.5-39% guided, progressing toward 41% by FY2029
Score rationale
Score of 8/10 reflects strong and accelerating financial trends across nearly all key metrics.
Positive modifiers (+3.0): Revenue acceleration +600bps in FY2026 (+1.0). Sequential quarterly acceleration FQ1 15.2% to FQ4 19.4% (+0.5). AEC segment acceleration +820bps (+0.5). Non-GAAP OPM expansion resuming after 3yr plateau (+0.5). EPS acceleration to +23% (+0.5). FCF +54% YoY (+0.5).
Negative modifiers (-2.5): FY2027 guided deceleration to ~13% (-0.5). NTM noise obscuring organic growth (-0.5). GTM restructuring execution risk (-0.5). Margin plateau for 3 years pre-FY2026 (-0.5). Modest share count reduction despite heavy buyback spend (-0.5).
Base score: 7.0 + net modifiers (+1.0) = 8.0. This is a company firing on most cylinders -- revenue accelerating, margins expanding, FCF growing, and management executing against a clear multi-year strategic plan. The near-term GTM disruption risk and NTM lapping effects are the primary reasons this is an 8 rather than a 9.
Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id=6) and ADSK earnings call transcripts (FY2026 Q1-Q4). All financials in USD. Fiscal year ends January 31 -- FY2026 = calendar year 2025.