VST delivered a textbook Q1: revenue of $5.64B (+43% YoY) and a record first-quarter Adjusted EBITDA of $1.494B (+20% YoY, +85% vs Q1 2024). Both metrics topped consensus. Generation drove the result with $1.426B EBITDA on strong realized prices, PJM capacity uplift, and the Lotus assets acquired late 2025; Retail at $68M was an expected YoY decline driven by exceptionally mild ERCOT weather. Management reaffirmed FY2026 guide and 2027 midpoint — both still exclude Cogentrix (closing 2H 2026) and the Meta PJM nuclear PPA (~2,600 MW). Capital return continued aggressively: ~$525M repurchases in the first four months, $75M Q1 dividend = $600M YTD already returned. Investment-grade upgrade from Fitch (after S&P's late-2025 upgrade) released the secured-debt liens. Bottom line: cleanest quarter in the IPP space.

Key Metrics Trends

Metric	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026
Revenue ($M)	$3.1B	$3.8B	$6.3B	$4.0B	$3.9B	$4.2B	$5.0B	$4.6B	$5.6B
Revenue ($M) YoY %	-	-	-	-	+28.8%	+10.5%	-20.9%	+13.5%	+43.4%
Generation (TWh)	44.5	50.2	56.5	45.1	48.0	51.5	57.1	51.6	50.5
Generation (TWh) YoY %	-	-	-	-	+7.9%	+2.6%	+1.1%	+14.4%	+5.2%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$813M	$1.4B	$1.4B	$1.9B	$1.2B	$1.3B	$1.5B	$1.8B	$1.5B
Adjusted EBITDA ($M) YoY %	-	-	-	-	+52.5%	-5.2%	+3.9%	-5.9%	+20.5%
Retail Adj EBITDA ($M)	$95M	$230M	$280M	$170M	$280M	$240M	$200M	$200M	$68M
Retail Adj EBITDA ($M) YoY %	-	-	-	-	+194.7%	+4.3%	-28.6%	+17.6%	-75.7%
Generation Adj EBITDA ($M)	$718M	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.7B	$960M	$1.1B	$1.3B	$1.6B	$1.4B
Generation Adj EBITDA ($M) YoY %	-	-	-	-	+33.7%	-7.1%	+11.7%	-8.2%	+48.5%

Adj EBITDA is compounding from $5.5B (2024) to $5.8B (2025) toward FY26 midpoint ~$6.5B+ ex-Cogentrix, with Q1 2026 already 24% of midpoint. Revenue re-accelerated to +43% YoY (Q4'25 was +13.5%). The under-appreciated trajectory call: VST is the only IPP that already has IG ratings at both agencies AND the only one with formal 2027 midpoint guide in market. Per-share compounding is structural: 169M shares retired since Nov 2021 at $37 avg cost; $1.475B authorization remaining.

Beat/Miss

Guidance

Catalysts

Street Q&A

Contradictions

Read-Throughs

This Quarter vs Consensus

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Variance	Beat/Miss
Revenue	$5.40B	$5.64B	+$240M / +4.4%	Beat
Adj EPS	$2.21	$2.87	+$0.66 / +29.9%	Beat
Adj EBITDA (consol)	Implied from FY guide midpoint	$1.494B	Record Q1 result	Beat
Generation Adj EBITDA	n/a	$1.426B	Strong realized prices + PJM capacity + Lotus	Strong
Retail Adj EBITDA	Expected YoY decline	$68M	Below run-rate but flagged in advance	In-line vs guide

Pattern: VST has now beaten on revenue and EPS for the last several quarters. Q1 is seasonally Retail-heavy and Generation-light; even so, Generation delivered $1.426B as PJM capacity revenue and Lotus assets layered in. The integrated model worked exactly as designed: mild ERCOT weather hurt Retail, but Generation more than offset.

Guidance Deep Dive

Metric	Prior / Consensus	New / Actual	Signal
FY 2026 Adj EBITDA	$6.0-6.6B (introduced Q3 2025 call)	Reaffirmed; ex-Cogentrix & Meta PPA	Q1 $1.494B = ~24% of midpoint — tracking strong
FY 2026 Adj FCF before growth	Introduced Q3 2025; reaffirmed	Reaffirmed	Hedging program through 2027 underpins confidence
2027 Adj EBITDA midpoint opportunity	Maintained	Maintained; ex-Cogentrix & Meta PPA	Anchor for the long-duration thesis
Cogentrix acquisition close	1H/2H 2026	On track to close 2H 2026	Will reset both FY26 guide AND 2027 midpoint upward
Meta PJM nuclear PPA (~2,600 MW)	Announced January 2026	Not in guide	Additional contracted EBITDA upside post-close
Capital return 2026-2027	$3B equity / $4B growth / $3B residual = $10B+ cash gen	Reaffirmed; $600M already returned YTD	169M shares retired since 2021 at $37 avg

Burke's tone was confident and structural — 'load growth is real and is actualizing', ERCOT 5-6% annual through 2030, PJM 2-3% annual. The unprompted emphasis on $10B of cumulative cash gen 2026-2027 and a clean $3B equity / $3B residual capital framework is intended to anchor the per-share compounding thesis. The integrated-model defense (Retail miss offset by Generation) was clearly rehearsed but earned: the mild-weather scenario was the genuine bear case and the integrated model handled it.

Upcoming Catalysts

Catalyst	Timing	Consensus / Watch	Implication
Cogentrix acquisition close (5,500 MW gas)	2H 2026	On track per Q1 call	Resets FY26 guide AND 2027 midpoint; immediate accretion
Meta PJM nuclear PPA (~2,600 MW)	Effective with PPA start	Long-term contracted EBITDA lift	Adds visible decade-long cash flow stream at premium pricing
Beaver Valley & Comanche Peak nuclear contracting (~3.2 GW)	Ongoing 2026	Multiple parties in discussion per Q1 call	Next leg of contracted-mix uplift after Meta
FERC colocation order PJM compliance filings	1H 2026 (PJM short timeline)	Stacey Dore: FERC 'motivated to act quickly'	Unlocks more bilateral deals like Meta
ERCOT batch 0 interconnection clarity	2026	Mgmt sees 30-40 GW realistic load growth by 2030 (10-15 GW data centers)	Resets ERCOT forward curve once load actually energizes
2027 guide reset post-Cogentrix close	2H 2026	Implicit set-up for material upward revision	Most important catalyst for the share-price thesis

Street Q&A

Question	Management response	Assessment
FERC colocation rules — more Meta-like deals possible?	Burke + Dore: 'opportunity to do additional deals like Meta'; works on gas as well as nuclear. PJM compliance filings imminent.	Well answered
Mild ERCOT weather impact on guide?	Burke: integrated model worked — Retail bore brunt but Generation offset; no offsets needed.	Well answered — integrated model defended
Constellation said hyperscalers paused; is VST seeing same?	Burke: No change; 'activity level has remained as high as we've ever seen'. Conversations advancing in parallel with rules.	Well answered — directly addresses peer commentary
Bridge power technology / OEM choice?	Burke/Dore: Customer-driven; multiple OEMs; not committed to one technology. Gas-leaning recently.	Well answered
Hedging strategy — capacity term hedging?	Burke: Deals already include capacity + energy (e.g., Meta). MISO sites better for redevelopment than 12-year capacity term hedges.	Partial — sidesteps direct framework comparison to peer
Storage / battery role in capacity strategy?	Burke: Customer-driven; standalone wholesale battery returns are weak in ERCOT; better paired with data-center sites.	Well answered — clear-eyed on battery economics
ERCOT batch 0 sizing realistic?	Burke: 30-40 GW realistic by 2030, 10-15 GW of which is data centers; market may be pricing 400+ GW which is not credible.	Well answered — strong, specific framework

Contradictions

Topic	View 1	View 2	Explainer
Hyperscaler demand pace	VST: 'activity level as high as ever' (Burke Q1'26 call)	CEG (Constellation) recent commentary: 'a little bit of a pause' from customers	Real difference in tone — could be portfolio mix (CEG nuclear-heavy / single asset reliance vs VST diversified gas + nuclear), or sample of customers, or pace of negotiation. Worth tracking next quarter.

Indirect Read-Throughs

Theme	Commentary	Read-through
ERCOT forwards	Forwards 'don't reflect even our view' of 5-6% load growth; batteries depressing volatility	Bearish for ERCOT battery-only IPPs; structurally bullish for diversified Gen+Retail
PJM colocation order	FERC motivated to act quickly; PJM compliance filings underway	Bullish for CEG, TLN, VST PJM nuclear behind-the-meter economics
Hyperscaler pace	VST opposite of CEG: 'activity level as high as ever'	Differentiation argument vs nuclear-pure-play CEG
Investment-grade upgrade	Fitch and S&P now both IG; secured-debt liens released	Lower future funding costs; expands buyer base
Bridge power / distributed gen	Multiple OEM discussions; gas-leaning	Read-through to gas turbine OEMs (GEV, SMR exposure later)
Storage economics	Wholesale ERCOT battery returns 'virtually nothing'; ITC challenged if not domestic	Negative for pure-play battery IPPs; storage value pulled toward data-center pairing
Coal-to-gas conversion	Coleto Creek + Miami Fort projects active	Capex / contracted return optionality; potential read for AEP coal-heavy peers

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