VRT — Q1 2026 Earnings Preview
Vertiv Holdings Co | Reports April 29, 2026 Before Market Open | AI Infrastructure & Data Center Critical Systems | ~$100B market cap
Earnings Date
Apr 29
2026 — Before Market Open
Q1 Revenue Guide
$2.5–2.7B
Consensus $2.6B · ~22% organic growth
Q1 EPS Guide
$0.95–1.01
Consensus $0.97 · ~53% YoY growth
Total Backlog
$15.0B
+109% YoY · Book-to-bill 2.9x in Q4
Q4 Orders Growth
+252%
YoY — strongest in company history
Americas Organic Growth
+46%
Q4 2025 · Accelerating every quarter
EMEA Organic Growth
-14%
Q4 2025 · Deteriorating since Q4 2024
FY2026 EPS Guide
$5.97–6.07
Midpoint $6.02 · 43x forward P/E
Investment Setup
Vertiv enters Q1 2026 reporting as one of the strongest AI infrastructure beneficiaries in the market. The $15B backlog (+109% YoY) and 252% Q4 orders growth provide exceptional multi-year revenue visibility. The consistent beat-and-raise pattern (FY2025 revenue finished +11% above initial guide, EPS +18%) suggests conservative initial guidance. Key risk: at 43x FY2026E EPS, the stock is priced for perfection — magnitude of the beat matters as much as direction.
| Metric | Guide Low | Guide High | Midpoint | Street Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | $2,500M | $2,700M | $2,600M | ~$2,600M |
| Organic Revenue Growth | 18% | 26% | ~22% | ~22% |
| Adj. Operating Margin | 18.5% | 19.5% | 19.0% | ~19.0% |
| Adj. Diluted EPS | $0.95 | $1.01 | $0.98 | $0.97 |
Consensus sits at guided midpoints — virtually no premium embedded above management guidance. This sets up a binary outcome: beat the guide midpoint and the stock re-rates higher; miss and multiple compression follows from a 43x valuation. VRT tends to guide conservatively on annual figures (+11% revenue, +18% EPS above initial FY2025 guide), but the quarterly pattern is lumpy — Q1 is seasonally the weakest quarter.
| Metric | Guide Low | Guide High | Midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | $13,250M | $13,750M | $13,500M |
| Organic Growth | 27% | 29% | ~28% |
| Adj. Operating Margin | 22.0% | 23.0% | 22.5% |
| Adj. Diluted EPS | $5.97 | $6.07 | $6.02 |
| Adj. EBITDA | — | — | $3,202M |
| Segment | Guide Low | Guide High | Midpoint | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | $9,100M | $9,300M | $9,200M | Dominant growth engine; +46% organic Q4 2025 |
| APAC | $2,400M | $2,600M | $2,500M | Turned -9.3% organic in Q4; guide implies recovery |
| EMEA | $1,700M | $1,800M | $1,750M | -14% organic Q4 2025; guide implies flat to down vs. FY2025 |
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales ($M) | $1,639 | $1,953 | $2,074 | $2,346 | $2,036 | $2,638 | $2,676 | $2,880 |
| Products ($M) | $1,270 | $1,555 | $1,654 | $1,914 | $1,650 | $2,166 | $2,214 | $2,361 |
| Services ($M) | $369 | $398 | $420 | $432 | $386 | $472 | $461 | $520 |
| Adj. Op Profit ($M) | $249 | $382 | $417 | $504 | $337 | $489 | $596 | $668 |
| Adj. Op Margin | 15.2% | 19.6% | 20.1% | 21.5% | 16.5% | 18.5% | 22.3% | 23.2% |
| Adj. Diluted EPS | $0.43 | $0.67 | $0.76 | $0.99 | $0.64 | $0.95 | $1.24 | $1.36 |
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders Growth YoY | +60% | +57% | +17% | — | +13% | +15% | +60% | +252% |
| Total Backlog ($B) | $6.3B | $7.0B | $7.4B | $7.2B | $7.9B | $8.5B | $9.5B | $15.0B |
| Book-to-Bill | 1.5x | 1.4x | 1.1x | 1.0x | 1.4x | 1.2x | 1.4x | 2.9x |
The Q4 2025 orders surge (+252% YoY) drove a sequential doubling of backlog from $9.5B to $15.0B and a book-to-bill of 2.9x — the strongest demand print in company history. At current annual revenue run-rate (~$10B+), this backlog represents approximately 1.5 years of revenue coverage, dramatically reducing downside risk. A sequential order decline in Q1 2026 would be expected and should be interpreted in context: even at 1.0x book-to-bill, VRT is fully covering revenue with new orders.
| Region | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | 7.1% | 17.2% | 20.5% | 24.7% | 28.8% | 43.2% | 43.0% | 46.2% | Accelerating |
| APAC | 9.1% | 5.7% | 10.4% | 27.1% | 36.4% | 36.8% | 21.3% | -9.3% | Turned negative |
| EMEA | 9.8% | 13.5% | 25.2% | 32.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | -4.0% | -14.1% | Deteriorating sharply |
| Quarter | Rev Guide | Rev Actual | Rev Delta | Rev | EPS Guide | EPS Actual | EPS Delta | EPS |
|---|
| Quarter | Rev Guide | Rev Actual | Rev Delta | Rev Result | EPS Guide | EPS Actual | EPS Delta | EPS Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2024 | $1,960M | $1,953M | -$7M | Slight miss | $0.67 | $0.67 | $0.00 | In-line |
| Q3 2024 | $2,140M | $2,074M | -$66M | Miss | $0.82 | $0.76 | -$0.06 | Miss |
| Q4 2024 | $1,925M | $2,346M | +$421M | Beat | $0.60 | $0.99 | +$0.39 | Beat |
| Q1 2025 | $2,350M | $2,036M | -$314M | Miss | $0.81 | $0.64 | -$0.17 | Miss |
| Q2 2025 | $2,550M | $2,638M | +$88M | Beat | $0.97 | $0.95 | -$0.02 | Slight miss |
| Q3 2025 | $2,850M | $2,676M | -$174M | Miss | $1.26 | $1.24 | -$0.02 | Slight miss |
| Q4 2025 | $2,600M | $2,880M | +$280M | Beat | $0.98 | $1.36 | +$0.38 | Beat |
Management guided conservatively at the start of FY2025 and raised the full-year outlook four times. FY2025 revenue finished +11.2% above the initial midpoint; EPS finished +18% above initial. This is the primary signal for interpreting FY2026 guidance conservatism.
| Guided At | FY Rev Midpoint | FY Adj. EPS Midpoint |
|---|
| Guided At | FY Revenue Midpoint | FY Adj. EPS Midpoint |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 (initial) | $9,200M | $3.55 |
| Q1 2025 raise | $9,450M | $3.55 |
| Q2 2025 raise | $10,000M | $3.80 |
| Q3 2025 raise | $10,200M | $4.10 |
| FY2025 Actual | $10,230M | $4.19 |
| Date | Headline | Detail | Significance |
|---|
| Date | Headline | Detail | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | ThermoKey Acquisition | Agreed to acquire Italy-based ThermoKey S.p.A. — heat-rejection technology for AI data centers. Close expected Q2 2026. | Expands EMEA thermal management; full-stack advantage |
| Feb 2026 | MegaMod HDX Launch | New modular liquid cooling infrastructure solution for high-density AI/HPC deployments in North America and EMEA. | Product expansion for next-gen GPU clusters |
| Mar 2026 | Ohio Manufacturing +$50M | Expanding Ironton and Westerville, OH facilities. ~45% increase in liquid cooling / chilled water capacity. Operational Q2 2027. | Supply-side execution; hundreds of new jobs through 2029 |
| Mar 2026 | Americas Manufacturing | Four new or expanding facilities across Americas for infrastructure solutions, power management, and integrated cabinets. | Capacity build-out to capture $15B backlog |
| Mar 2026 | NVIDIA Vera Rubin Systems | Unveiled liquid-cooled systems designed for next-gen NVIDIA Vera Rubin platforms. | Positions VRT for next GPU generation upgrade cycle |
| Mar 2026 | Vertiv Frontiers Report | Published technology trends outlook covering AI power requirements, digital twins, and adaptive liquid cooling. | Thought leadership; underscores demand visibility |
Consensus: 15 Buy / 1 Hold / 0 Sell. Average PT ~$283.50 (~8.5% upside from $261.29 as of Apr 4, 2026).
| Firm | Action | Price Target |
|---|
| Firm | Action | Price Target |
|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Raised PT, Outperform | $198 → $290 |
| Deutsche Bank | Raised PT | $204 → $281 |
| Roth MKM | Reiterated Buy | $275 |
| RBC Capital | Raised PT, Outperform | $200 → $266 |
| Weiss Ratings | Upgraded to Buy | — |
Hyperscaler Capex Tsunami
MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL/META combined 2026 capex $600-750B (+36-67% YoY); ~75% directed at AI infrastructure. VRT is the direct beneficiary.
Liquid Cooling Supercycle
Next-gen GPU clusters (GB200, B300, Vera Rubin) require liquid cooling at 100kW+/rack vs. 30-50kW air-cooled. VRT has full-stack advantage; CEO: capacity growing "really, really, really rapidly."
$15B Backlog = Multi-Year Visibility
~1.5 years of revenue coverage at current run-rate. Dramatically reduces downside risk. Growing deferred revenue from large prepayment structures signals customer commitment.
Margin Expansion Runway
Adj. op margin expanded 800bps from 15.2% (Q1 2024) to 23.2% (Q4 2025). FY2026 guide of 22-23% suggests further expansion achievable through mix shift and pricing power.
Tariffs Manageable
Production shifted to Mexico under USMCA; only single-digit % of U.S. inputs from China. Pricing actions and supply chain reconfiguration deployed. Management: tariff impact will be "mitigated."
Valuation — Priced for Perfection
At 77x trailing P/E and ~43x FY2026E EPS, any miss or guidance reduction would cause significant multiple compression. The magnitude of the beat matters, not just the direction.
EMEA Deterioration
Organic growth went from +33% to -14% in four quarters. FY2026 guide implies flat/down. If weakness deepens beyond project timing, it signals structural demand deterioration in Europe.
APAC Turned Negative
APAC organic growth flipped to -9.3% in Q4 2025 after +37% earlier in 2025. FY2026 implies recovery, but execution uncertainty is high.
Order Sustainability
252% Q4 orders growth may include lumpy hyperscaler pull-forwards. A sequential decline in Q1 orders is expected — but street reaction may be negative regardless of context.
Customer Concentration
Increasing reliance on a small number of hyperscalers for growth creates concentration risk. Any capex pause or budget shift from one customer could materially impact bookings.
1. Order Sustainability
Q4 2026 orders +252% YoY — was any inflated by pull-forward or large one-timers? What does Q1 order pipeline look like?
2. Backlog Conversion
At $15B, what is expected conversion schedule? How much deliverable in 2026 vs. 2027+?
3. EMEA Recovery Path
Organic growth went from +33% to -14% over 4 quarters. Are there green shoots? What is the driver of the deterioration?
4. Tariff Update
Any changes since initial guidance? Impact of reciprocal tariffs announced April 2026?
5. Liquid Cooling Mix
What % of orders/backlog is now liquid cooling vs. air? What is the growth trajectory?
6. FY2026 Guidance Raise
Given beat-and-raise pattern (+11% revenue / +18% EPS above initial in FY2025) — will management raise at Q1 or wait on macro?
7. ThermoKey Integration
Progress on acquisition and expected contribution?
8. Capacity Constraints
Is VRT constrained in any product line? What are lead time trends?