VMC -- Q1 2026 Earnings Preview

Vulcan's Q1 print is about whether the aggregates cycle is reaccelerating or only stabilizing. Q4 revenue was $1.91B, adjusted EBITDA was $518M, and adjusted EPS was $1.70. The quarter was good enough to support the long-term aggregates-quality story, but not clean enough to end the debate around decelerating price and modest volumes.

The FY2026 guide is the hurdle. Management guided adjusted EBITDA to $2.4B to $2.6B, aggregates shipments to +1% to +3%, and freight-adjusted price to +4% to +6%. A good Q1 needs evidence that price is still compounding and that public infrastructure plus data-center work can offset weak residential demand.

| Metric | FY2026 Guide | Preview Read | |---|---:|---| | Adjusted EBITDA low | $2.4B | Downside case if weather/volumes lag | | Adjusted EBITDA high | $2.6B | Requires both volume and unit margin improvement | | Aggregates shipments | +1% to +3% | Early test of construction recovery | | Freight-adjusted aggregates price | +4% to +6% | Main proof point for local-market pricing power | | Asphalt/concrete cash gross profit | Approx. $290M | Watch whether non-aggregates drag remains contained |

Revenue growth improved in 2025, but the trajectory is not linear: Q3 had the cleanest growth, while Q4 slowed to low-single-digit YoY growth despite better aggregates shipment trends.

Adjusted EBITDA expanded meaningfully in Q1-Q3 2025, then fell YoY in Q4. The Q1 2026 call needs to show that the Q4 softness was seasonal/weather/mix rather than an early sign that price-cost spread is rolling over.

| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Revenue | $1.63B | $2.10B | $2.29B | $1.91B | | Gross profit | $365M | $625M | $697M | $487M | | Adjusted EBITDA | $411M | $660M | $735M | $518M | | Adjusted EPS | $1.00 | $2.45 | $2.84 | $1.70 | | Aggregates tons | 47.8M | 59.3M | 64.7M | 55.1M | | Aggregates price/ton | $22.03 | $22.11 | $22.01 | $21.78 |

The best bull-case evidence is that aggregates tons returned to growth in H2 2025: shipments were 64.7M tons in Q3 and 55.1M tons in Q4. The offset is price deceleration: freight-adjusted price moved from $22.03/ton in Q1 to $21.78/ton in Q4. Mix matters, but the market will focus on whether Q1 price growth tracks the +4% to +6% guide.

| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | What It Means | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| | Aggregates cash gross profit | $508M | $704M | $766M | $591M | Core profit pool still healthy | | Aggregates cash gross profit/ton | $7.48 | $9.44 | $9.46 | $7.91 | Watch price-cost spread recovery | | Concrete cash gross profit/yd | $20.01 | $23.38 | $24.73 | Not disclosed in Daloopa | Non-aggregates improved through Q3 | | Asphalt cash gross profit/ton | $7.54 | $18.49 | $19.62 | Not disclosed in Daloopa | Seasonal but important margin contributor |

The quality of the business is not in question: aggregates are local natural monopolies, pricing has compounded for years, and infrastructure work remains a durable demand source. The pre-print debate is narrower: Q4 showed $518M of adjusted EBITDA and 27.1% adjusted EBITDA margin, down from 32.1% in Q3. If Q1 suggests that weather, mix, and seasonality explain the margin reset, the FY2026 guide looks credible. If pricing/mix is weaker, the guide will look back-end loaded.

Key external read-throughs are public infrastructure funding, Sun Belt construction, data-center sitework, and residential stabilization. For Q1, the highest-signal data will be aggregates tons, freight-adjusted price growth, cash gross profit per ton, and management's confidence in the +1% to +3% shipment guide.

| Catalyst | Timing | What Matters | |---|---|---| | Q1 aggregates tons | Apr 29 | Whether Q4's 55.1M tons momentum continues | | Freight-adjusted price | Apr 29 | Tracking against +4% to +6% / high guide | | Cash gross profit/ton | Apr 29 | Spread between pricing and cost inflation | | FY2026 EBITDA guide | Apr 29 | Reaffirmation of $2.4-$2.6B / high | | Infrastructure / data center demand | 2026 | Whether large projects offset weak residential volumes |

| Quarter | Adjusted EPS | Adjusted EBITDA | Setup Read | |---|---:|---:|---| | Q4 2025 | $1.70 | $518M | Revenue grew, EBITDA margin compressed | | Q3 2025 | $2.84 | $735M | Best recent quarter; strong volumes and margin | | Q2 2025 | $2.45 | $660M | Clean seasonal ramp | | Q1 2025 | $1.00 | $411M | Easy-ish comp but weather-sensitive |