Financial Trends -- 8/10
High-quality financial trajectory. Revenue YoY re-inflected from a four-quarter 2024 decline to
consistent 2025 growth (+7.1% FY25) with mid-year acceleration. Margins expanding at both the Adj
EBITDA line (+160bps YoY to 29.3%; +320bps over five years) and GAAP-operating line (+200bps YoY to
20.4%). Diluted share count gently declining. Free cash flow positive and accelerating (+41% YoY to
$1.14B). The engine is structural aggregates pricing (~$18.67 to ~$22/ton) layered over recovering
volumes. Blemishes: decelerating price YoY and seasonally volatile quarterly margins. No penalty
modifiers.
Weight: 25%
Adj EBITDA Margin
29.3%
+160 bps YoY | Expanding
FCF
$1.14B
+41% YoY | Accelerating
Share Count
Declining
133.7M to 132.7M | No dilution
Quarterly Revenue Trajectory ($M)
Clear worse-to-better inflection: revenue YoY turned from negative every quarter in 2024 to positive every quarter in 2025.
The 2024 comps were down on weather-hit, soft volumes; the matching 2025 quarters turned positive
(+5.8% / +4.4% / +14.3% / +3.2%), with a Q4 step-down against a tougher comp. This is the
worse-to-better trajectory the framework rewards.
Aggregates -- Price & Volume Engine
Price is the durable engine, but YoY gains are decelerating.
Freight-adjusted price compounded from ~$18.67 (Q1'23) to ~$22 (2025) -- the local-monopoly pricing
mechanism. But YoY price gains decelerated from the +10% range in 2024 to +1.7% by Q4'25 as the
post-inflation catch-up matured. Volume recovered in 2025 (Q3 64.7M tons vs 57.7M a year prior),
supplying the revenue re-acceleration.
Annual Financial Summary (FY ends December)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue ($M) | $5,552.2M | $7,315.2M | $7,781.9M | $7,417.7M | $7,941.1M |
| Rev YoY | — | +31.8% | +6.4% | -4.7% | +7.1% |
| Adj EBITDA ($M) | $1,451.3M | $1,625.6M | $2,011.3M | $2,057.2M | $2,323.6M |
| Adj EBITDA Margin | 26.1% | 22.2% | 25.8% | 27.7% | 29.3% |
| Adj Diluted EPS ($) | $5.04 | $5.11 | $7.00 | $7.53 | $8.00 |
| GAAP Op Margin | 18.2% | 13.0% | 18.3% | 18.4% | 20.4% |
| Net Earnings ($M) | $670.8M | $575.6M | $933.2M | $911.9M | $1,076.7M |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 133.5 | 133.6 | 133.7 | 133.1 | 132.7 |
Key trends
- Revenue compounding at ~9.4% CAGR: From $5.55B (2021) to $7.94B (2025), through a -4.7% 2024 dip, now re-inflected to +7.1% in FY2025 on data-center and infrastructure demand
- Adj EPS compounding at ~12.2% CAGR: $5.04 (2021) to $8.00 (2025)
- Margin expansion: Adj EBITDA margin +320 bps over five years (26.1% to 29.3%); GAAP operating margin +220 bps
- Share count declining: 133.5M (2021) to 132.7M (2025), buyback-supported, no dilution
Segment Revenue ($M, Annual)
Segment shares sum to >100% because the consolidated total is net of inter-segment eliminations (aggregates sold internally into asphalt/concrete). Aggregates is even more dominant on profit than revenue: aggregates gross profit was $1,964.8M in FY2025 (up from $1,816.7M in FY2024) -- the overwhelming majority of company profit. This is an aggregates company with two downstream tag-along segments.
Free Cash Flow ($M)
FCF positive and accelerating. FY2025 FCF of $1.14B, up
+41% YoY, with FCF margin expanding from 10.9% to 14.3%. Three-year FCF CAGR of ~28% ($535.6M to
$1,135.3M). FCF = operating cash flow minus capex (both Daloopa-sourced above); Daloopa's packaged
FCF series returned no values, so FCF is computed from the linked OCF and capex lines. This
satisfies the composite quality gate (positive & growing FCF: YES).
Blemishes -- Not Operational Deterioration
| Blemish | Detail | Penalty |
|---|---|---|
| Decelerating Price YoY | Freight-adj price YoY slowed from the +10% range in 2024 to +1.7% by Q4'25 as the post-inflation catch-up matured; the easy pricing is largely banked | None |
| Seasonal Quarterly Margins | Winter Q1/Q4 troughs (~20-25%) vs summer Q2/Q3 peaks (~30-32%); each season is expanding vs prior year, so seasonal, not deteriorating | None |
| M&A Debt Spike | Total debt jumped to $5.31B in Q4'24 on the Wake Stone / Superior M&A, then paid down to $4.36B by Q4'25; lumpy, not a sustained 3-quarter outgrowth of revenue | None |
No penalty modifiers apply. FCF is strongly positive and
growing; shares are declining (no dilution); FY25 revenue +7.1% with operating earnings +18.7%
(no revenue-up / operating-income-down divergence); and the M&A-driven debt is lumpy around the
late-2024 acquisitions, not a sustained multi-quarter outgrowth of revenue.
Score Rationale
Score of 8/10 reflects a near-textbook accelerating / expanding / de-leveraging profile. No penalty modifiers applied.
Supports 8/10:
- Revenue YoY re-inflected from a four-quarter 2024 decline to consistent 2025 growth with mid-year acceleration
- Adj EBITDA margin expanding +160 bps YoY (27.7% to 29.3%) and +320 bps over five years; GAAP operating margin +200 bps YoY
- FCF positive and accelerating (+41% YoY to $1.14B; FCF margin 10.9% to 14.3%)
- Share count declining, no dilution
- Structural aggregates pricing (~$18.67 to ~$22/ton) layered over recovering volumes -- the leader-in-a-local-oligopoly profile
Held short of 9-10 (no penalty):
- Revenue growth is single-digit, not double-digit accelerating
- Q4'25 revenue / margin momentum cooled against a tougher comp
- Price YoY decelerating as the inflation catch-up matures -- durable engine, but slowing
Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id: 602). Fiscal year ends December 31. All financials in USD.