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UBER
Uber Technologies
Earnings
UBER | Earnings Review
Uber Technologies, Inc. | 2026 Q1 reported May 6, 2026 BMO | Analysis date: May 7, 2026 | Daloopa company_id 10039
Total GB Beat
+~1.7%
$53.72B vs $52.8B Street; +21% cc-YoY; Mobility GB +24.6%, Delivery +27.6%, Freight returned to growth
Adj EBITDA Beat
+~2%
$2.48B vs ~$2.43B Street; +32.8% YoY; margin 18.8% of revenue (+260 bps), 4.5% of GB
EPS (Non-GAAP / GAAP)
$0.72 / $0.13
Non-GAAP +44% beat $0.71 Street; GAAP $0.13 distorted by equity-investment revaluation lapping $3B Q1'25 tax benefit
Q2'26 Guide
High-teens GB / mid-30s EBITDA
Multi-Q algo reaffirmed; AI capex re-up offset by slower headcount; AV ecosystem build-out scaling (15 cities by YE26)
Operational beat across every demand metric; revenue light & GAAP EPS noisy from accounting reclassifications and lapping comps. Total Gross Bookings ~$53.72B beat $52.8B Street with cc-YoY +21% — Mobility GB $26.39B (+24.6%), Delivery GB $25.99B (+27.6%, fresh take-rate high 19.5%), Freight GB $1.33B (+6%, first growth print after 5 flat-to-down quarters). Total revenue $13.20B (+14.5%) MISSED ~$13.29B Street — driven by Mobility take rate dropping 490 bps to 25.8% (insurance/business-model accounting reclass — not unit economics; insurance savings being passed through to riders as price cuts → elastic trip-volume acceleration). Adj EBITDA $2.48B (+32.8%) beat ~$2.43B with margin 18.8% of revenue (+260 bps) and 4.5% of GB. Non-GAAP EPS $0.72 (+44%) beat $0.71 Street; GAAP EPS $0.13 distorted by equity-method revaluation lapping ~$3B Q1'25 deferred-tax benefit. Engagement: Trips 3.64B (+20%), MAPCs 199M (+17%), 6.1x monthly trips/MAPC. Uber One 50M members (doubled in ~6 quarters, >50% of bookings, hotels via Expedia 700K live). Advertising run-rate $2B+ (+50% YoY, glidepath to $3B+). AV ecosystem inflection: AV trips +10x YoY; 30+ partners; on track for 15 cities by YE26; new Uber Autonomous Solutions (UAS) product line; Santander (financing) + Hertz (fleet) + Marsh/Apollo (insurance) ecosystem coming together. Tone: most bullish in 4 calls — Dara opened with "delivered top line and profitability at or above the high end of our guidance." Dara explicitly: "no effect of Waymo launches on overall business"; SF/LA category position higher than 6 months ago. Balaji conceded Uber "underestimated" AI tool impact in November budget and "re-upped" AI investment, offset by slower headcount growth. Capital return: $3B Q1 buyback; ~$24B remaining auth ($7B + $20B). FY26 framework: 5th consecutive year >20% GB CAGR; FCF conversion >100% in 2025 ($9.8B FCF on $8.7B EBITDA, +42% YoY). Watch: (1) Mobility take-rate optics continuing 2H; (2) AV city-by-city competitive split (Waymo 1P in Phoenix/Miami/Dallas); (3) Tesla Robotaxi 7-city 1H'26 expansion; (4) EU Platform Work Directive Dec 2026 transposition; (5) AI capex re-up vs leverage.
Key Metrics Trends
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobility GB ($M) | $18.7B | $20.6B | $21.0B | $22.8B | $21.2B | $23.8B | $25.1B | $27.4B | $26.4B |
| Mobility GB ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +13.5% | +15.6% | +19.6% | +20.4% | +24.6% |
| Delivery GB ($M) | $17.7B | $18.1B | $18.7B | $20.1B | $20.4B | $21.7B | $23.3B | $25.4B | $26.0B |
| Delivery GB ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +15.1% | +19.9% | +25.0% | +26.4% | +27.6% |
| Freight Revenue ($M) | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.3B |
| Freight Revenue ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | -1.9% | -0.9% | -0.1% | -0.4% | +6.1% |
| Total Revenue ($M) | $10.1B | $10.7B | $11.2B | $12.0B | $11.5B | $12.7B | $13.5B | $14.4B | $13.2B |
| Total Revenue ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +13.8% | +18.2% | +20.4% | +20.1% | +14.5% |
| Trips (M) | $2.6B | $2.8B | $2.9B | $3.1B | $3.0B | $3.3B | $3.5B | $3.8B | $3.6B |
| Trips (M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +18.0% | +18.2% | +22.5% | +22.3% | +20.0% |
| MAPCs (M) | $149M | $156M | $161M | $171M | $170M | $180M | $189M | $202M | $199M |
| MAPCs (M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +14.1% | +15.4% | +17.4% | +18.1% | +17.1% |
| Adj EBITDA ($M) | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.1B | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.5B |
| Adj EBITDA ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +35.2% | +35.0% | +33.5% | +35.0% | +32.8% |
| Adj EBITDA % of Revenue | 13.6% | 14.7% | 15.1% | 15.4% | 16.2% | 16.7% | 16.8% | 17.3% | 18.8% |
| Adj EBITDA % of Revenue YoY chg (bps) | - | - | - | - | +260 | +200 | +170 | +190 | +260 |
| Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($) | $0.35 | $0.40 | $0.51 | $0.56 | $0.50 | $0.60 | $0.65 | $0.71 | $0.72 |
| Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +42.9% | +50.0% | +27.5% | +26.8% | +44.0% |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $1.4B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $1.7B | $2.2B | $2.5B | $2.2B | $2.8B | $2.3B |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +65.6% | +43.8% | +5.7% | +64.6% | +1.6% |
_Trajectory: bullish-improving across the demand stack. Total GB cc-YoY: 21% → 20% → 21% → 18% → 18% → 21% → 22% → 21%. Trough was 2025Q1-Q2 at 18%; clean re-acceleration to 22% by 2025Q4, modest cool to 21% in 2026Q1. Mobility cc-YoY: Decel 27% → 18% over 4Q; troughed 2025Q2; stabilized/inflected to 20% in 2026Q1. Delivery cc-YoY: 4 straight quarters of acceleration (18→20→24→26%) before pulling back to 23% in 2026Q1 — strongest piece of the trajectory. MAPCs YoY accelerated from ~14% (2024) to 17% in Q1'26; Trips re-accelerated from +18% (2025H1) to +20%. Adj EBITDA YoY normalized in 33-35% range. Yellow flag: margin-expansion rate compressing — YoY bps gain dropped from +120bps (2024Q2) to +26bps (2026Q1). Easy leverage past peak; AI capex re-up & insurance pass-through likely cap further % margin gains, but absolute EBITDA $ growth stays durable in mid-30s. Uber One members 50M doubled in 6 quarters; ad run-rate $2B+ at +50%._
Beat/Miss
Guidance
Catalysts
Street Q&A
Contradictions
Read-Throughs
This Quarter vs Consensus
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Variance | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Gross Bookings ($B) | ~$52.8B | ~$53.72B | +$0.9B / +1.7% | Beat — cc-YoY +21% |
| Mobility GB ($B) | — | $26.39B | +24.6% YoY | Beat — accel from +20% Q4 |
| Delivery GB ($B) | — | $25.99B | +27.6% YoY | Beat — fresh take-rate high 19.5% |
| Freight GB ($M) | — | $1.33B | +6% YoY | Beat — first growth in 6Q |
| Revenue ($B) | ~$13.29B | $13.20B | -$0.09B / -0.7% | MISS — Mobility take-rate reset |
| Adj EBITDA | ~$2.43B | $2.48B | +$50M / +2% | Beat — margin 18.8% (+260 bps) |
| Non-GAAP EPS | ~$0.71 | $0.72 | +$0.01 / +44% YoY | Beat |
| GAAP EPS | ~$0.70 | $0.13 | -$0.57 | Equity revaluation; lapping Q1'25 ~$3B tax benefit |
| MAPCs (M) | — | 199 | +17.1% YoY | Engagement re-accel |
| Trips (M) | — | 3,643 | +20.0% YoY | Frequency intact at 6.1x |
| L8Q Delivery GB beat rate | — | 8/8 = 100% | — | Most reliable surprise driver |
| L8Q Adj EBITDA beat rate | — | 6/8 = 75% | — | Consistent Beater |
| L8Q Revenue beat rate | — | 5/8 = 63% | — | Noisy on take-rate dynamics |
| L4Q GB beat rate | — | 4/4 = 100% | — | Consistent Beater |
| L4Q EBITDA beat rate | — | 4/4 = 100% | — | Consistent Beater |
Pattern: Consistent operational beater (GB + EBITDA); revenue/EPS distorted by accounting & equity-method. Delivery GB has beaten 8/8 quarters — most reliable surprise. Adj EBITDA beats 6/8. Revenue noisy (5/8) on take-rate accounting. GAAP EPS unreliable due to recurring equity-method markdowns (Aurora/DiDi/Grab) and lapping comps. Mgmt explanation Q1'26: GB +21% cc-YoY trip-and-audience led; Mobility accelerated to +20% cc-YoY with record margins; Delivery +23% cc-YoY led by grocery/retail; Freight returned to growth. Revenue softness in Mobility explained by insurance savings being passed through to riders as price cuts → elastic trip-volume acceleration (LA trip growth materially above national). AI capex re-up vs November budget noted as offset to headcount growth. $3B buyback in quarter.
Guidance Deep Dive
| Metric | Prior Algo / Trend | Q2'26 Outlook | FY26 Implied | Street Pre-Print | vs Prior | vs Street |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total GB Growth (cc-YoY) | High-teens | High-teens cc-YoY | ~20% | ~17-18% | Reaffirmed | Above |
| Adj EBITDA Growth (YoY) | Low-to-mid 30s | Low-to-mid 30s | ~30-35% | ~30% | Reaffirmed | Above mid |
| 3-Yr Algo (2024-2026): GB CAGR | Mid-to-high teens | Tracking ABOVE | 5th yr >20% | — | Tracking above | — |
| 3-Yr Algo: EBITDA CAGR | High-30s/low-40s | In range | +35% in 2025 | — | In range | — |
| FCF Conversion | 90%+ | >100% | $9.8B / $8.7B EBITDA | — | Above | — |
| AV: cities by YE26 | — | 15 cities (on track) | — | — | — | +10x AV trips YoY |
| Uber One members | — | 50M (Q1'26) | — | — | 2x in 6Q | — |
| Advertising run-rate | — | $2B+ (+50% YoY) | $3B+ glidepath | — | — | — |
| Capital return: buyback | $7B + $20B add'l auth | $3B Q1 deployed | ~$24B remaining | — | Aggressive pace | — |
| AI capex offset | — | Re-upped AI investment | Slower headcount growth | — | Margin pressure noted | — |
Tone: stair-stepped more confident each quarter; Q1'26 the most bullish of 4-call sequence. US Mobility acceleration empirically confirmed via insurance reform tailwind ("first year since COVID with leverage"). Delivery accelerated to +23% cc-YoY; Uber One at 50M. AV narrative shifted from defensive (Q2'25-Q4'25) to ecosystem build-out scaling (Q1'26): Santander financing, Hertz fleet management, Marsh/Apollo insurance, 30+ partners, AV trips +10x YoY, on track for 15 cities by YE26. New offset to watch: Balaji explicitly said they "underestimated the amount of impact AI tools could have" when setting November 2025 budget and "re-upped" AI investment — only fresh margin watch-item; offset by slower headcount growth. Risk caveats: Tesla Robotaxi 7-city 1H26 expansion; Waymo 1P app expansion in Phoenix/Miami/Dallas where UBER is NOT the partner; EU Platform Work Directive Dec 2, 2026 transposition; DoorDash + Prosus aggression in Europe (Uber going on offense, Finland #1 + 6 more EU markets). Bright spot: Dara: "no effect of Waymo launches on overall business"; SF/LA category position higher than 6 months ago — key bull pushback to AV cannibalization fears.
Upcoming Catalysts
| # | Catalyst | Timing | What to Watch | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AV scale-out — 15 cities by YE26 | Through FY26 | AV trips growth (+10x YoY); 30+ partners; UAS product line; new ecosystem partners (Santander/Hertz/Marsh/Apollo) | Most important catalyst |
| 2 | Uber One — 50M members | Through FY26 | Member growth (+50% YoY, +20M TTM); >50% of bookings; hotels via Expedia 700K | Lock-in flywheel |
| 3 | US Mobility re-acceleration | FY26 | Insurance savings pass-through to riders → elastic trip volume; CA/LA elasticity confirmed | Mgmt "more confident than Dec/Jan" |
| 4 | Advertising — $2B → $3B+ run-rate | FY26-FY27 | +50% YoY pace; ad take rate of GB | High-margin growth |
| 5 | Capital return — $3B Q1 buyback / ~$24B remaining | Multi-year | Pace; FCF conversion >100%; M&A optionality | Aggressive return |
| 6 | AV partner expansion: Waymo, Wayve, Avride, May Mobility, Nuro, VW, Pony.ai, WeRide | Rolling | City-by-city; Waymo 1P competitive split | Hybrid network validation |
| 7 | Delivery: grocery & retail attach; restaurant base | FY26 | Take rate (19.5% Q1, fresh high); attach rate; Mobility-to-Delivery cross-sell ($15B run-rate) | Margin + GB tailwind |
| 8 | Mobility frequency / Reserve, Comfort, Black, Teen, Health | FY26 | Trips/MAPC (6.1x Q1); new use cases | Engagement |
| 9 | Freight inflection | FY26 | +6% YoY first growth print after 5 flat-to-down Q; trucking-cycle tailwind | Optionality |
| 10 | AI capex re-up vs leverage | FY26 | Margin expansion bps compressing (+26 bps Q1'26 vs +120 bps Q2'24) | Margin watch-item |
| 11 | Tesla Robotaxi 7-city 1H26 | 1H 2026 | Dallas/Houston live; Phoenix/Miami/Las Vegas pending; $2.73/mi pricing | Bear catalyst |
| 12 | Waymo 1P app expansion (non-Uber cities) | FY26 | Phoenix/Miami/Dallas Avis/Moove partnerships | Direct competition in select cities |
| 13 | EU Platform Work Directive — Dec 2, 2026 transposition | Dec 2026 | National implementation; gig-driver classification | Regulatory tail risk |
| 14 | Lyft AV partnerships / competitive response | Ongoing | Lyft platform deals; rider acquisition cost trends | Watch competitive intensity |
| 15 | DoorDash + Prosus aggression in Europe | FY26 | Uber going on offense (Finland #1, 6 more EU markets) | Margin pressure in EU Delivery |
| 16 | FY27 framework / 2027 Investor Day | 2H'26 → 2027 | Long-term algo refresh; AV economics disclosure | Sentiment catalyst |
| 17 | Mobility take-rate optics | FY26 | Continued 2H insurance pass-through; reported vs underlying take rate | Optics watch |
| 18 | AV deal economics — "healthy positive" | FY26+ | Q4'25 framing of AV unit economics ; Q1'26 ecosystem framing | Bridge needed |
| 19 | 5th consecutive year >20% GB CAGR | FY26 | Track record durability | Algo tracking above |
| 20 | FCF conversion >100% | FY26 | $9.8B FCF on $8.7B EBITDA in 2025; +42% YoY | Capital efficiency |
Street Q&A
| # | Analyst (Firm) | Topic | Mgmt Response | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anmuth (JPM), Sheridan (GS), Nowak (MS) | AV — Waymo cannibalization, ecosystem build-out | Dara: "no effect of Waymo launches on overall business"; SF/LA category position higher than 6 months ago. AV trips +10x YoY; 30+ partners; UAS product line announced; on track for 15 cities by YE26. | Well Answered — quantified bull pushback |
| 2 | Multiple analysts | AI / cross-platform tech investment | Balaji: "underestimated the amount of impact AI tools could have" in November budget; "re-upped" AI investment; offset by slower headcount growth. ~10% of code committed by autonomous agents. | Candid — re-up explained |
| 3 | Multiple analysts | Delivery — grocery/retail mix shift, take-rate sustainability | Take rate +100 bps to fresh high 19.5%; ~$15B run-rate Delivery GBs sourced from Mobility app; 30% of eligible Mobility consumers have never used Eats. | Well Answered — cross-sell metric |
| 4 | Colantuoni (Jefferies) | Delivery margin expansion despite grocery/retail mix | Mgmt cited unit economics improvements but did not directly address mix-margin question. | Partial deflection |
| 5 | Post (BofA) | Mobility take-rate optics | Insurance savings pass-through; not unit-economics deterioration; reported take rate down 490 bps YoY but underlying GB +24.6% indicates demand response is working. | Well Answered |
| 6 | Devnani (Bernstein) | "Compound at 20% for longer" framing | Generic barbell-strategy response — Mobility maturity offset by Delivery + AV + advertising + new categories. | Partial — strategic but not specific |
| 7 | Multiple analysts | Uber One growth and economics | 50M members (vs 25M Q3'24); >50% of bookings; new vector via Expedia hotels (700K); cross-sell engine. | Well Answered — cohort metrics |
| 8 | Morton (MoffettNathanson) | ToS / preventative measures for personal agents (Apple, OpenAI, Claude, Gemini) | Strategic deflection via travel-metasearch analogy (Booking/Expedia); did not address ToS specifics. | Strategic deflection |
| 9 | Josey (Citi) | AI investment ROI / spend trajectory | Re-up framing; trade-off vs headcount; specific AI tool ROI not disclosed. | Partial |
| 10 | Multiple analysts | Capital allocation — buyback, leverage, M&A | Not directly asked; mgmt noted $3B Q1 buyback. ~$24B remaining auth ($7B + $20B add'l). | Well Answered (offered) |
| 11 | Multiple analysts | AV ecosystem — Santander, Hertz, Marsh/Apollo | Quantified ecosystem build-out: financing (Santander), fleet (Hertz), insurance (Marsh+Apollo); enables AV economics at scale. | Well Answered |
| 12 | Multiple analysts | Macro / consumer health | Not pressed; Dara noted backdrop "complex" (war/weather) but results at/above high end of guidance. Travel/services strong (airports = 15% of Mobility GBs). | Well Answered (offered) |
Contradictions
| # | Topic | Severity | Statement A | Statement B | Why it's a tension |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AV profitability framing | Medium-High — genuine narrative shift | Q2 FY25 (Mahendra-Rajah) and Q3 FY25 (Khosrowshahi): AVs are unprofitable and will remain so "for a few years." | Q4 FY25 (Khosrowshahi): "the deals that we're striking today… we are going to have healthy economics… positive economics… The margins that we're getting now are good positive margins." Q1 FY26 reverts to ecosystem-build language without bridging. | Likely reconcilable as unit-deal economics (Q4) vs fully-loaded segment P&L (Q2/Q3), but mgmt never explicitly bridges the gap. Investors should press on full P&L AV economics for definitive read. |
| 2 | AV city timeline | Low — plan evolution | Q2 FY25: hedged on Waymo specifics | Q4/Q1: 15-city target largely non-Waymo | Consistent — non-Waymo partner ramp is the new vector. |
| 3 | Mobility frequency | Low — cohort effect | Q3'25: "very strong" | Q4'25: "slower rate" | Cohort-explained — new MAPCs lower frequency than mature MAPCs. Not contradiction. |
| 4 | Delivery margins | Low — same direction | Q3'25: "moderating expansion" | Q4'25: "increase margins" | Same direction; nuance about pace, not direction. |
| 5 | Take rate by segment | Insufficient detail | Cross-quarter detail thin | Mobility 25.8% (Q1'26) vs 30.7% (Q2'25) | Reclass-driven, not unit-economics. Reaffirmed in transcript. |
| 6 | Adj EBITDA margin path | Low — metric refinement | Q3'25: shifted focus to Adj OI / EPS as maturation metrics | Q1'26: % of GB stayed in 4.5%-4.6% band | Metric shift was explained as maturation; consistent. |
| 7 | Buyback pace | Low — consistent | Q2'25: "50% of FCF as a benchmark" | Q1'26: $3B record quarter | Floor not cap; consistent. |
| 8 | Driver supply / earnings | None — uniformly positive | Multiple Q: 10M drivers/couriers; healthy supply | — | No contradiction across 4 calls. |
Indirect Read-Throughs
| Name | Relationship | What UBER signaled | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla (TSLA) | AV competitor (Robotaxi) | TSLA NOT named in AV partner roster despite extensive partner enumeration; Dara: "no effect of Waymo launches" frames hybrid network as defensible vs single-stack robotaxi | NEGATIVE — hybrid network validation undercuts solo robotaxi narrative |
| Lyft (LYFT) | Direct mobility competitor | Not named as competitive concern; Mobility GB +24.6% on US insurance pass-through narrative is industry tailwind | POSITIVE for LYFT — industry tailwind |
| DoorDash (DASH) | Direct delivery competitor | Flagged as aggressor in Europe with Prosus; Uber going on offense (Finland #1 + 6 more EU markets) | NEGATIVE — Europe intensity |
| Instacart (CART) | Grocery delivery competitor | Uber Delivery grocery/retail attach accelerating; ~$15B run-rate Delivery GBs from Mobility app | NEGATIVE — Uber grocery acceleration |
| Waymo (Alphabet) | AV partner + competitor | Partner in cities like Phoenix/SF/Austin; Waymo 1P expansion in Phoenix/Miami/Dallas where Avis/Moove are partners (not Uber) | MIXED — selective partnership |
| Hertz (HTZ) | AV fleet partner | Named as new ecosystem partner for AV fleet management | POSITIVE |
| Santander | AV financing partner | Named as new ecosystem partner for AV financing | POSITIVE |
| Marsh / Apollo (APO) | AV insurance partners | Named as new ecosystem partners for AV insurance | POSITIVE |
| Expedia (EXPE) / Booking (BKNG) | Travel distribution / analog | Expedia partnership (700K hotels) integrated into Uber One; travel-metasearch framing for personal agents (BKNG/EXPE) | POSITIVE for EXPE; analog framing supportive of BKNG |
| Airbnb (ABNB) | Travel analog | Travel/services spend signals strong; 1.5B trips outside home city globally | POSITIVE — services tailwind |
| Progressive (PGR) / Allstate (ALL) | Auto insurance — pass-through | Insurance savings being passed through to riders → rate momentum normalizing | NEGATIVE — rate momentum compressing |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) | AV partner / supplier | Named in AV partner roster | POSITIVE |
| Pony.ai / WeRide / Baidu | AV partners | Named in 30+ AV partner roster | POSITIVE |
| Lucid (LCID) | AV vehicle (Nuro/Lucid) | Named in AV partner ecosystem | POSITIVE |
| Apple / OpenAI / Anthropic / Google | Agent platforms | Cited as future API partners not threats; travel-metasearch analogy; ~10% of code committed by autonomous agents | Mixed — partner framing |
| Grab / Didi / Bolt | Geo peers (unmentioned) | Notably absent — no commentary | Neutral signal |
Data sourced from Daloopa. Document search is currently in beta; transcript and filing snippets may vary.