Uber Technologies — 7.6/10 — $71.84

Uber Technologies operates the world largest mobility and delivery platform, connecting consumers with drivers, couriers, restaurants, and merchants across 70+ countries. The company operates three segments: Mobility (rideshare, ~50% of gross bookings), Delivery (Uber Eats, ~47%), and Freight (~3%). With ~74% US rideshare market share, Uber sits in a textbook duopoly with Lyft. Internationally, Uber is the clear #1 in most major markets across Europe, Latin America, and APAC.

The financial transformation has been extraordinary. Revenue compounded at ~31% CAGR from FY2021 ($17.5B) to FY2025 ($52.0B). Adjusted EBITDA swung from negative $774M in FY2021 to $8.7B in FY2025. Free cash flow exploded from negative $743M to $9.8B, converting at 112% of EBITDA. The company initiated its first-ever share buyback in 2024, repurchasing $6.5B in FY2025 and reducing the share count for the first time.

The central investment debate is autonomous vehicles. Uber has positioned itself as the go-to-market platform for AV commercialization, with 20+ partnerships including Waymo, NVIDIA, Waabi, Nuro, and Avride. Management argues AVs on Uber achieve 30% higher utilization than standalone deployments, that 70% of US mobility profits come from non-top-20 cities unlikely to see AVs for years, and that 60% of mobility gross bookings are international. The bear case is that Tesla or Waymo could disintermediate Uber in major cities. Management expects 15 AV cities by end of 2026.

The $2B+ advertising business growing 50%+ YoY is an underappreciated earnings driver, contributing nearly pure-profit incremental revenue. Cross-platform usage (40% of consumers using 2+ Uber products in Q4 2025) is a unique structural advantage.

Uber Technologies is a rare combination of scale, growth, and improving profitability. The company has delivered five consecutive years of 20%+ gross bookings growth, expanded Adjusted EBITDA from negative $774M to $8.7B, and generated $9.8B in free cash flow in FY2025 -- converting at 112% of EBITDA. The Mobility business is a global duopoly with ~74% US market share, expanding take rates, and a long penetration runway (only 10% of adults in top markets use Uber monthly). Delivery is the global leader with grocery/retail and advertising providing high-margin growth vectors.

Bull case: At $71.84, UBER trades at ~13x NTM EV/EBITDA and ~20x NTM P/E, a steep discount to its 5-year average and to high-growth peers. The ~6.6% FCF yield, $20B+ buyback authorization, and clear catalyst calendar (AV expansion, advertising scaling, insurance-driven US acceleration) make this an attractive entry point for a long-duration compounder. The $2B+ advertising business growing 50%+ is an underappreciated earnings driver. MAPC growth accelerated from 14% to 18% through 2025.

Bear case: AV disintermediation is the defining risk. If Tesla or Waymo go direct at scale, Uber could face take rate compression in top US metros (~30% of US mobility GB). Gig worker reclassification (EU, state-level) could structurally raise costs. Freight remains a persistent drag ($5B in flat gross bookings, loss-making). The CFO transition introduces execution risk.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction position for patient capital willing to look through near-term AV noise. Dara Khosrowshahi has systematically over-delivered on every quantitative commitment. The primary risk -- AV disintermediation -- is real but likely a 2028+ story at scale.

Key catalysts and monitoring points:

• AV city expansion to 15 markets (2026): Validates platform strategy and de-risks the AV narrative. Currently live with Waymo in Austin and Atlanta.
• Continued share buyback (~$10B+ in FY2026E): Could drive 5%+ share count reduction and meaningful EPS accretion.
• Advertising reaching $3B+ (2026-2027): High-margin revenue accelerant. Delivery ad penetration exceeded 2% target; mobility and grocery ads are nascent.
• Grocery/retail scale (2026-2027): ~$12B run rate growing faster than restaurant delivery. Extends delivery TAM and drives cross-platform usage.
• Insurance reform legislation (2026): Hundreds of millions in savings that could be passed to consumers, accelerating trip growth.
• OEM AV hardware partnerships (2026-2027): Secures supply for autonomous fleet and proves the financialization model.
• Tesla robotaxi progress: Monitor for any signs of direct-to-consumer rideshare deployment at scale -- the key bear case catalyst.

For the full analysis, see the Business Model, Financials, and Valuation pages.

Concerns, Catalysts & Risks -- full analysis

Hold at current levels -- Uber is a dominant, compounding platform business with exceptional financial momentum, trading at a meaningful discount to its historical multiple due to AV disruption fears that may not materialize at scale for several years. At $71.84 (30% below the 52-week high of $101.99), the stock reflects meaningful AV overhang -- but the fundamentals have never been stronger.

The setup favors patient capital. At ~13x NTM EV/EBITDA with 30%+ EBITDA growth, ~6.6% FCF yield, and a $20B+ buyback authorization, the valuation is compelling for a business compounding gross bookings at 20%+ annually. The Mobility duopoly (~74% US share), Delivery global leadership, and $2B+ advertising business provide multiple durable growth vectors.

What would change the recommendation: (1) Evidence of AV players successfully going direct-to-consumer at scale in multiple US metros. (2) Meaningful take rate compression in Mobility or Delivery beyond normal seasonal variation. (3) Gig worker reclassification legislation passing in major markets with material cost impact. (4) Management execution misses on stated Investor Day targets. Until any of these materialize, the risk/reward strongly favors holding this position through the AV noise for the underlying compounding economics.