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RMD | Earnings Review — FY2026 Q4

Verdict: Quality compounding with fading momentum into a noisy first-time guide — not a franchise break. ResMed closed FY2026 with a modest double-beat: revenue $1,463.6M (+0.16% vs FMP; +8.6% YoY headline / +8% CC), non-GAAP diluted EPS $2.95 (+$0.06 / +2.1% vs $2.89; +15.7% YoY), non-GAAP gross margin $62.3% (+90 bps YoY). Full year: revenue $5,653.4M (+9.9%), non-GAAP EPS $11.17 (+17.0%), non-GAAP GM $62.4% (+240 bps).

What is new this print

1. First formal FY revenue + non-GAAP EPS guidance in public-company history. Core CC rev 5–7% (ex-Astral ~6–8%); headline $5.75B–$5.85B; non-GAAP EPS $12.00–$12.25 (+7–10% reported); core EPS +12–14% after ~$0.30 MatrixCare and ~$0.20 Noctrix dilution.
2. Astral field-safety package fully quantified: Q4 ~$41.9M all-in provision (non-GAAP excluded); FY27 −~$75M rev / ~130 bps / ~$0.15 EPS; zero new Astral sales all FY27; FY28+ TBD.
3. Portfolio rewiring: MatrixCare sale close ~2026-09-01 (~$220M rev / ~$58M non-GAAP OP in FY26) + $450M ASR; Noctrix closed 2026-06-01 (~$0.20 FY27 EPS dilution).
4. Dual deceleration in Q4: rev YoY −223 bps (to +8.6%) and non-GAAP EPS YoY −499 bps (to +15.7%) — first simultaneous step-down of both series in four quarters.
5. GM expansion stepping down hard: Q4 only +90 bps YoY (after +230–310 bps run); FY27 guide low-double-digit bps only; Q1 slight YoY GM contraction flagged. Inflation in e-components/freight “can no longer [be] offset with productivity alone.”
6. Capital return aggression: $1.5B buybacks + dividend $0.66 (+10%) → >$1.85B total returns (+75% YoY).
7. Tone: New CFO Aaron Bloomer’s first full guide; more quantified, more cautious on inflation/price; still constructive on GLP-1/wearable funnel and 2030 HSD + leverage framing.

Contradictions snapshot: Same-call CME count clash (5k vs 95k); RCS BH-FY26 reacceleration miss (4%/2% vs mid-high single); FY27 5–7% vs multi-year HSD slogan.

Near-term catalysts: MatrixCare close + ASR (~Sep 1); Q1 FY27 print (~Oct 29) as first guide test; Apnimed AD109 PDUFA 2027-02-28 as main external binary.

Trajectory first: revenue YoY has moderated from mid-teens post-Philips peak into an 8–11% band, ending Q4 at +8.6%. Masks remain the growth engine; RCS is decelerating into the MatrixCare exit. Non-GAAP GM and EPS still expand YoY, but the pace of GM expansion has peaked.

Consolidated & segments — last 8 quarters

Q4 FY26 vs Q4 FY25 snapshot

| Metric | Q4'26 | Q4'25 | YoY | |---|---:|---:|---:| | Devices | $750.0M | $693.9M | +8.1% | | Masks & other | $542.0M | $487.1M | +11.3% | | RCS | $172.0M | $167.0M | +3.0% | | Net revenue | $1,463.6M | $1,348.0M | +8.6% | | Non-GAAP GM | 62.3% | 61.4% | +90 bps | | GAAP GM | 58.8% | 60.8% | −200 bps (Astral) | | Non-GAAP EPS | $2.95 | $2.55 | +15.7% | | GAAP EPS | $2.64 | $2.58 | +2.3% |

Annual (5 years)

| Metric | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Net revenue | $3,578M | $4,223M | $4,685M | $5,146M | $5,653M | | Rev YoY | +11.9% | +18.0% | +10.9% | +9.8% | +9.9% | | Devices YoY | +16.0% | +21.6% | +7.6% | +9.1% | +8.5% | | Masks YoY | +8.0% | +11.0% | +14.0% | +11.0% | +13.3% | | RCS YoY | +7.3% | +24.3% | +17.3% | +9.8% | +5.4% | | Non-GAAP GM | 57.7% | 56.5% | 57.7% | 60.0% | 62.4% | | n/g EPS | $5.79 | $6.44 | $7.72 | $9.55 | $11.17 | | n/g EPS YoY | +8.6% | +11.2% | +19.9% | +23.7% | +17.0% |

Trend read

| Dimension | Trajectory | Evidence | |---|---|---| | Revenue growth | Decelerating into HSD | Last 4Q YoY: +9.1% → +11.0% → +10.8% → +8.6%. FY26 +9.9% after FY23 peak +18%. | | Devices | Stable HSD | Q4 +8.1%; Americas sleep ~+8% CC; life-support (Astral) large drag (−45% Americas / −38% ROW). | | Masks | Still the growth engine | Q4 +11.3%; FY26 +13.3%. Fabric AirTouch / VirtuOx support adherence + resupply. | | RCS | Decelerating | Q4 +3.0%; FY26 +5.4% vs FY25 +9.8%. MatrixCare drag ahead of divestiture. | | Non-GAAP GM | Expanding, pace fading | Q4 +90 bps after +230–310; sequential −50 bps (e-components, freight, ~20 bps FX). | | EPS | Still > revenue growth | n/g EPS +15.7% on rev +8.6%; leverage + buybacks intact. |

Headline: modest double-beat — quality/productivity, not demand blowout.

| Metric | Consensus (FMP) | Actual | Variance | Call | |---|---:|---:|---:|---| | Non-GAAP diluted EPS | $2.89 | $2.95 | +$0.06 (+2.1%) | BEAT | | Net revenue | $1,461.3M | $1,463.6M | +$2.3M (+0.16%) | BEAT (narrow) | | GAAP diluted EPS | — | $2.64 | — | Astral-distorted |

Heatmap — last 8 quarters (★ = this quarter)

Pattern

| Window | EPS beat rate | Rev beat rate | Magnitude | |---|---|---|---| | L4Q (FY26) | 100% (4/4) | 100% | +4–7¢ band | | L12Q | 83% (10/12); met-or-beat 92% | ~92% | Compressing vs FY24–early FY25 (+11–22¢) |

Pattern: consistent beater, magnitude deteriorating toward consensus. Street has calibrated; positive-surprise optionality is smaller even as reliability stays high.

Why the beat (management mapping)

| Support | Detail | |---|---| | Volume | Sleep devices Americas +8% CC / ROW +13%; masks Americas +10% / ROW +12% | | GM productivity | +90 bps YoY non-GAAP GM despite −50 bps sequential (e-components, freight, ~20 bps FX) | | Tax | ETR 20.1% vs 21.1% prior-year quarter | | Offsets | FX ~−$0.05 EPS; Noctrix ~−$0.02; Astral life-support collapse; RCS +2%; R&D +19% CC |

First-ever formal FY rev + EPS guide — soft headline, leverageable core.

Formal FY2027 guide (issued 2026-08-06)

| Metric | Low | High | Mid | Notes | |---|---:|---:|---:|---| | Core CC revenue growth | 5% | 7% | 6% | Incl. Astral pause; ex Noctrix; MatrixCare base adjusted | | Headline revenue | $5.75B | $5.85B | $5.80B | ~50 bp FX headwind | | Non-GAAP EPS | $12.00 | $12.25 | $12.13 | +7–10% vs FY26 $11.17 | | Core EPS growth | 12% | 14% | 13% | Ex ~$0.30 MatrixCare + ~$0.20 Noctrix | | Astral rev headwind | — | — | −$75M | ~130 bp / ~$0.15 EPS embedded | | Gross margin | — | — | Low-DD bps expansion | Q1 slight YoY contraction first | | Op margin | — | — | Slight increase | No OpEx % guide (by design) | | Capex | $160M | $180M | $170M | Mfg automation step-up | | Dividend / buybacks | — | — | $0.66 / $1.5B | Total returns >$1.85B |

Waterfall — FY2027 revenue ($B)

Bridge (order-of-magnitude): HSD path ~6.11 → MatrixCare base/exit ~−0.18 → Astral −0.08 → FX ~−0.03 → core growth/mix → guide mid 5.80. Street still ~$0.15B above until models fully strip portfolio.

EPS bridge ($)

FY26 non-GAAP EPS                         11.17
+ Core earnings power (+12–14%)      +1.34 to +1.56
− MatrixCare dilution                     −0.30
− Noctrix dilution                        −0.20
− Astral lost GM (~$0.15) embedded in core
→ Reported guide mid                      12.13
FMP consensus                             12.06   (guide mid +$0.07)

Arithmetic check: $11.17 × 1.12–1.14 = $12.51–$12.73 − $0.50 dilution = $12.01–$12.23 ≈ guide range. Internally consistent.

Vs street & prior framework

| Metric | New guide mid | FMP consensus | vs street | vs prior HSD framing | |---|---:|---:|---|---| | Headline rev | $5.80B | ~$5.95B | −2.5% | Soft vs pure HSD (~$6.11) | | Core CC rev | +6% (5–7%) | n/a (headline) | Core closer if models strip | Ex-Astral 6–8% ≈ HSD | | Non-GAAP EPS | $12.13 | ~$12.06 | +$0.07 / +0.5% | Core still outpaces rev | | YoY headline rev | +2.6% | +5.3% | Guide below street growth | Decel vs FY26 +9.9% | | YoY reported EPS | +8.5% | +8.0% | In line | Still > headline rev |

Q1 FY27 setup (qualitative only — no formal quarterly $ guide)

| Item | Mgmt color | Street (FMP) | |---|---|---| | Revenue | Seq down “a few %” underlying (ex portfolio/Astral) | ~$1,424.8M (~−2.7% vs Q4; ~+6.7% YoY) | | Non-GAAP EPS | Not guided | ~$2.85 (−3.4% vs Q4; +11.8% YoY vs $2.55) | | Gross margin | Slight YoY contraction | Watch vs Q1'26 62.0% | | OpEx | Roughly flat $ vs Q4 | Elevated YoY (Q4 R&D was hot) |

Tone shift (Q3 → Q4)

| Topic | Q3 | Q4 | Δ | |---|---|---|---| | Disclosure | In-year % ranges | Formal annual $ rev + EPS | Transparency up; miss risk up | | GM | Strong; accretion thru 2030 | Low-DD bps; Q1 down YoY; “can’t offset inflation with productivity alone” | More defensive | | Price | Minimal focus | Modest strategic price building through FY27 | New explicit lever | | Capital return | Opportunistic | $1.5B buybacks; >$1.85B total | Step-function | | CFO | Brett farewell | Aaron owns first formal guide | Structural |

YoY growth & acceleration (8 quarters)

| Metric | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 | Q3'26 | Q4'26 | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Rev YoY % | +11.1 | +10.3 | +7.9 | +10.2 | +9.1 | +11.0 | +10.8 | +8.6 | | Rev accel (bps) | +207 | −83 | −234 | +229 | −113 | +190 | −16 | −223 | | EPS YoY % | +34.1 | +29.3 | +11.3 | +22.6 | +15.9 | +15.6 | +20.7 | +15.7 | | EPS accel (bps) | +415 | −489 | −1,799 | +1,133 | −669 | −27 | +504 | −499 |

YoY trajectory chart

Inflection labels

| Label | Quarter | Signal | |---|---|---| | A — Soft patch | Q3'25 | Rev trough +7.9% (−234 bps); EPS collapses to +11.3% | | B — Recovery | Q4'25 | Rev re-accel +10.2%; EPS snaps +22.6% | | C — Rev high-water | Q2'26 | Peak rev YoY +11.0% in window | | D — Dual decel | Q4'26 | Rev −223 bps / EPS −499 bps together for first time in 4Q | | E — Structural wedge | Full 8Q | EPS YoY always above rev YoY (spread ~7–23 ppt) — leverage intact |

Plain English: Growth is still solid mid/high-single-digit revenue with mid-teens EPS, but momentum is fading at the margin into FY27 organic 5–7%. Not demand collapse — harder comps, intentional Astral de-emphasis, RCS/MatrixCare drag. Quality of algorithm (EPS > rev, masks flywheel) remains the bull case.

| # | Catalyst | Timing | Direction | Watch | |---|---|---|---|---| | 1 | FY27 formal guide delivery | Live; tested each Q | Neutral → constructive if core beats | Core 5–7% / 12–14% core EPS; sandbag room on rev | | 2 | Astral FSCA + sales pause | Full FY27 zero new sales | Near-term headwind | Accrual adequacy; FY28 restart optionality | | 3 | MatrixCare close + $450M ASR | ~2026-09-01 | EPS mix + capital return + | Close date; stranded costs; RCS HSD post-deal | | 4 | Noctrix (RLS) ramp | Multi-year; closed Jun 1 | Medium-term growth; near-term EPS drag | Ramp vs $0.20 dilution | | 5 | GLP-1 / dual-incretin funnel | Ongoing | Structural tailwind (mgmt) | Americas sleep ≥ mid-SSD; cohort n>2.5M stats hold | | 6 | Wearables (Oura live; Samsung fall) | Oura live; Samsung fall 2026 | Top-of-funnel + | Undiagnosed conversion; HSAT starts | | 7 | Product cycle (AS11 geo, AirCurve, fabric, MyAir GenAI) | Ongoing; no AS12 date | Share + mix | Masks double-digit; R&D run-rate | | 8 | GM + modest pricing | Q1 soft → 2H catch-up | Full-year constructive | Low-DD bps delivery after Q1 trough | | 9 | Capital returns | FY27 $1.5B BB + $0.66 div | Supportive EPS | FCF durability vs >$1.85B returns | | 10 | Apnimed AD109 PDUFA | 2027-02-28 | Competitive binary / awareness | Substitution vs funnel debate | | 11 | Philips capacity | Ongoing | Fading share tailwind | Any return-to-market signal | | 12 | Q1 FY27 earnings | ~2026-10-29 | First guide test | Highest near-term stock-moving event |

Bull / base / bear (next 12 months)

| Path | What has to happen | |---|---| | Bull | Core rev high end / above 7% (ex-Astral ≥8%); masks DD; GM expands after Q1; Noctrix accelerates; no Astral true-up | | Base | Core 5–7%; EPS $12–12.25; portfolio noise digested; GLP-1 mild positive | | Bear | Core slips to low-SSD; Astral costs rise; pricing pushback; AD109/GLP-1 re-ignites substitution; Philips capacity returns |

11 analysts · 7 well answered · 3 hard deflections · 1 soft gap. Street pressed margin/price, OpEx/R&D, and next-gen platform; mgmt hard-deflected those three while cleanly socializing Astral dollars, GM path, tuck-in M&A, and GLP-1.

Answered cleanly

| Analyst | Theme | Mgmt answer | |---|---|---| | Weems (Dougherty) | Q4 GM −50 bps QoQ | E-components + freight inflation; ~20 bps FX; still +90 bps YoY; modest price builds through FY27 | | Thillainathan (GS) | Top end of 5–7% | Astral ~130 bps / ~$75M included → underlying north of 6–8%; sleep devices share; masks DD; RCS HSD | | Lee / Taylor (Jefferies) | M&A box | Tuck-ins $100–500M; ROI > WACC; archetypes Noctrix / VirtuOx / Snap | | Wong-Pen (RBC) | Q1 GM down vs FY up | Inflation outpaces near-term productivity in Q1; US distribution productivity Q2–Q4; modest price feathers in | | Harrison (BofA) | Astral economics | $42M all-in accrual; $75M / ~$0.15 EPS FY27; no FY28 sell decision | | Fishkin (KeyBanc) | Astral → EPS | ~$0.15 embedded in 12–14% core EPS | | Sutcliffe (Citi) | Oral GLP-1s | Early; no dramatic change; PAP still >40% vs <3% GLP-1 @90d post-dx; dual-script +11% start / +3% 1y / +6% 3y resupply | | Vazquez (WB) | Americas vs intl devices | Steady as she goes; mid-SSD market meet/beat; China AS11; AirCurve geo |

Hard deflections (open diligence)

| Analyst | Topic | Type | Street still needs | |---|---|---|---| | Hurren (MST) | OpEx / R&D step-up (+19–22%) & FY27 OpEx | Hard | OpEx $ or % sales; whether R&D jump is temporary | | Bernstein / Block (Stifel) | Price vs volume in 5–7% | Hard — “not gonna get into the specifics” | Explicit price bps of growth | | Hadassin (Barrenjoey) | Next AirSense / AS12 timing | Hard — “no information… nor anywhere” | Launch window; AS11 residual runway |

Buy-side implication: Guide credibility hinges on unquantified price and OpEx flexibility. Astral is fully socialized (less surprise room). Product-cycle opacity keeps medium-term share/ASP forecasts judgment-heavy. Open into Q1: GM trough, R&D/SG&A normalization, Americas sleep re-accel, Noctrix early read, Astral field-action progress without new charges.

Three red-border alerts + two messaging shifts. GLP-1 thesis, market mid-SSD devices / high-SSD masks, tariff/Nairobi relief, and 5-year earnings-leverage language are largely consistent across the eight-call stack.

Messaging shifts (not hard contradictions)

Macro (from Q4 call)

| Theme | Tone | Read-through | |---|---|---| | Inflation (e-components, freight, fuel) | Elevated; productivity alone insufficient | Soft near-term GM for electronics-heavy med-device OEMs; modest ASP; HME margin squeeze limits pass-through | | Interest rates | Not discussed | Neutral; net-cash + >$1.85B returns imply BS flexibility | | Consumer / patient demand | Strong awareness (wearables + GLP-1s) | Positive sleep-health funnel, not recession pullback | | Section 301 / Nairobi Protocol | Relief reconfirmed for respiratory-disability products | Relative positive vs non-exempt imports | | FX | Q4 ~−$0.05 EPS; FY27 ~50 bp rev headwind | Soft for USD reporters with OUS mix | | China / industrial | AS11 China “fast growing”; capex $160–180M mfg step-up | Reinvestment, not demand contraction | | Capitated HME channel | Tight margins | Limits OEM price; favors volume + adherence software |

Companies mentioned

| Entity | Relationship | Implication | |---|---|---| | Eli Lilly (LLY) | GLP-1 / “Don’t Sleep On OSA” DTC | Free demand gen into PAP; combo-therapy narrative | | Novo Nordisk (NVO) | “Europe” injectables (not named) | Same dual-therapy tailwind at different rates | | Oura | Live wearable partner | ~13k users to ResMed.com; ~75% previously undiagnosed among assessed | | Samsung / Apple | Galaxy Ring FDA path; Watch awareness | Top-of-funnel complements; not substitutes in mgmt frame | | Philips (PHG) | Primary historical competitor | Not mentioned on Q4; Q3 “nothing new” — no re-entry signal | | Noctrix | Acquired Jun 1 | RLS #3 sleep disorder; HME channel fit; near-term EPS dilutive | | VirtuOx / Snap | Pathway / resupply tuck-ins | Funnel control; ERP-agnostic resupply software | | MatrixCare | Divesting ~Sep 1 | Cleaner sleep/breathing focus; proceeds fund ASR | | Brightree / Medifox DAN | Retained RCS | HSD growth target post-deal | | HME/DME aggregate | Core channel | Volume tailwinds vs modest OEM price; fabric mask +6% 90-day compliance helps LTV |

Key takeaways

1. Macro is inflation + FX + tariff relief, not demand recession — volume remains the growth engine.
2. Dominant external positives: LLY/NVO GLP-1 ecosystems and wearables (Oura/Apple/Samsung) as free PAP funnel.
3. Portfolio (Noctrix in, MatrixCare out) sharpens sleep + connected home care.
4. Philips silent on Q4 — no competitive re-entry color from RMD.
5. Nairobi Protocol reconfirmation is a relative positive vs non-exempt peers.

Steady high-quality compounder with decelerating growth rates and a first-time guide that needs unpacking. Q4 delivered the ResMed playbook on non-GAAP: HSD revenue, mid-teens EPS growth, GM expansion, masks outgrowing devices. The new debate is whether core 5–7% (ex-Astral 6–8%) is a sandbag or true deceleration from FY26’s ~8–10%, and whether GM can still expand in a low-DD-bps world once inflation and price negotiate with a capitated channel.

What matters next: (1) Q1 FY27 GM trough and core run-rate vs 5–7%, (2) Astral cash costs stay finite, (3) masks stay double-digit, (4) RCS post-MatrixCare hits HSD, (5) GLP-1/wearable funnel data remains constructive, (6) Apnimed AD109 Feb-2027 as structural watch.

What would break the case: sustained core CC ≤5% without portfolio excuses; non-GAAP GM peaking and rolling over; credible evidence GLP-1 patients drop PAP at scale; capital-return cut while FCF still robust; or Astral true-up / brand spillover into sleep.

• Daloopa fundamentals (company_id 549) — all hyperlinked figures above; guidance series 176461503–176463337
• FMP earnings consensus history (VA/Bloomberg not connected this run)
• ResMed Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript + press release (2026-08-06); prior 8-call stack in run folder
• Phase 2 task files: tickers/RMD/data/review_workspaces/2026-08-07/task_1 … task_8
• Internal M365 / SharePoint / OneNote / Outlook / Excel: unavailable this session

Data sourced from Daloopa