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MDT | Earnings Review — FQ1 FY2027

HOLD

NYSE: MDT | Headline +13.7% organic is a 53-week print. Strip the extra week and the run-rate is ~7% — a 50 bp FY raise is earned on CAS/CRM/CST breadth, not on 13% compounding.

Revenue Beat/Miss

+2.2%

$9.76B vs $9.55B FMP · +$210M · extra week $570M / 670 bps inside it

EPS Beat/Miss

+4.3%

NG $1.45 vs $1.39 FMP · +$0.06 · +15.1% YoY vs $1.26

Revenue Accelerating?

Yes, with an asterisk

+13.7% reported · ex-week ~7.0% vs FQ4 +6.6% organic · ~+40 bps real

Guidance vs Consensus

FY +50 bps / Q2 6%

Organic 7.25–7.75% · EPS $5.94–$6.00 · Q2 EPS $1.32–$1.34 vs $1.36 LY

Executive summary — what is new

Verdict: ACCELERATING underneath a 53-week print — not a 13% company. FQ1 revenue $9,756 million (+13.7% YoY vs $8,578 million) and non-GAAP EPS $1.45 (+15.1% vs $1.26) both cleared the street. Organic was also +13.7%, ~200 bps above the company midpoint. CFO Thierry Pieton put $570 million / 670 bps on the extra selling week. Strip it and underlying organic is ~7.0% vs FQ4 FY26’s +6.6% — a ~40 bp acceleration, in line with the new FY 7.25–7.75% band, not a new algorithm.

Print (clean double beat, dirty compare): vs FMP $9,546M / $1.39 = +$210M / +2.2% revenue and +$0.06 / +4.3% NG EPS. L12Q beat rate is intact (rev 11/12, NG EPS 12/12). Quality: extra week is the whole 670 bps of headline acceleration; mix still −50 bps of NG GM (Diabetes + CAS capital); tax rate 17.2% is “mostly timing” and reverses; tariff refunds nearly offset tariffs (slight net negative; no refunds in the rest-of-year guide).

Guidance: FY27 organic raised 50 bps to 7.25%–7.75% from 6.75–7.25%. NG EPS $5.94–$6.00 from $5.90–$6.00 — floor up $0.04, ceiling unchanged. Daloopa EPS-growth guide 7.4%–8.5%. Q2: ~6% organic, EPS $1.32–$1.34. That EPS band is below FQ2 FY26 $1.36. OM expansion guided ~+50 bps (Travis: down 10 bps from ~60) because they are reinvesting “a portion only” of the revenue upside and booking Cornerstone foregone interest on a $700 million check.

Tone: Geoff Martha is louder on breadth (CRM, CST, Surgical — “the big 3”) and on CAS (TTM >$2B, +9 pts U.S. share, 2.5x market for the year, >3x in Q2). Diabetes split-off is still “when economics are optimal.” Investor Day December 10–11 in Charlotte; no new long-term algorithm.

Contradictions (6, three high): extra-week vs 13.7% headline; FY 7.5% mid vs Q2 ~6%; EPS floor raise vs Q2 EPS down YoY; OM 50 vs 60 bps; $700M second robot vs Hugo conviction; “no hesitation” on MiniMed vs no date.

Catalysts into 2026-11-17: first 13-week quarter; CAS comps; Hugo indications; MiniMed mechanics. FMP Q2 $1.34 / $9.48B sits on the guide. Hold the stock for CAS/CRM compounding; do not underwrite 13% organic.

Net sales	$9,756M (+13.7% YoY, +2.2% beat)	Organic / extra week	+13.7% incl. $570M / 670 bps · ~7.0% ex-week
Non-GAAP diluted EPS	$1.45 (+15.1% YoY, +4.3% beat)	GAAP diluted EPS	$1.14 (+40.7% YoY)
NG GM / NG OM	65.2% (+10 bps) · 23.7% (+10 bps)	NG operating profit	$2,316M (+14.9% YoY)
Free cash flow	$1,290M vs $584M (+121% YoY)	Cardiovascular / EPT	$3,927M +19.5% · EPT $2,218M +29.6%
CAS (press)	+88% WW / +139% U.S. · TTM >$2B · +9 pts U.S. share	FY27 organic / NG EPS	7.25–7.75% (from 6.75–7.25%) · $5.94–$6.00
Q2 guide	~6% organic · EPS $1.32–$1.34 vs $1.36 LY	L12Q beat rate	Rev 11/12 (92%) · NG EPS 12/12 (100%)

Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id 483), Medtronic FQ1 FY2027 8-K EX-99.1 / IR release (2026-09-01; 27171453), and FMP transcript MDT_FY2027Q1 (call 2026-09-01). Consensus: FMP. Visible Alpha / Bloomberg MCP unavailable. Internal SharePoint / OneNote / Outlook / Excel unavailable — skipped. No stock price or multiple fabricated. Reported September 1, 2026. Prepared September 21, 2026.

Key metrics & trends (8 quarters)

Revenue drivers sit above the consolidated total. CAS is press/transcript (no Daloopa series); everything else is Daloopa. FY2027 is a 53-week year; the extra week is in FQ1 only. YoY is same-fiscal-quarter, never mixed-quarter.

Segment drivers

Driver	FQ2'25	FQ3'25	FQ4'25	FQ1'26	FQ2'26	FQ3'26	FQ4'26	FQ1'27
Cardiovascular ($M)	3,102	3,037	3,336	3,285	3,436	3,457	3,797	3,927
YoY %	—	—	—	—	+10.8	+13.8	+13.8	+19.5
EPT ($M)	1,578	1,545	1,733	1,712	1,825	1,856	2,110	2,218
EPT YoY %	—	—	—	—	+15.7	+20.1	+21.8	+29.6
Neuroscience ($M)	2,451	2,458	2,620	2,416	2,562	2,558	2,751	2,678
YoY %	—	—	—	—	+4.5	+4.1	+5.0	+10.8
CST ($M)	1,234	1,250	1,342	1,211	1,299	1,310	1,403	1,365
CST YoY %	—	—	—	—	+5.3	+4.8	+4.5	+12.7
Surgical & Endoscopy ($M)	1,649	1,596	1,709	1,612	1,679	1,654	1,820	1,740
S&E YoY %	—	—	—	—	+1.8	+3.6	+6.5	+7.9
ACM ($M)	478	476	503	471	493	519	568	539
ACM YoY %	—	—	—	—	+3.1	+9.0	+12.9	+14.4
Diabetes ($M)	686	694	728	721	757	796	837	843
Diabetes YoY %	—	—	—	—	+10.3	+14.7	+15.0	+16.9
U.S. sales ($M)	4,304	4,237	4,548	4,224	4,516	4,493	4,870	4,906
U.S. YoY %	—	—	—	—	+4.9	+6.0	+7.1	+16.1

FY27 recast: Cardiovascular now EPT / ICT / CV Surgery / PVH (old CRHF / SHA / CPV retired). A product line moved S&E → Neuromodulation; prior-year dollars on those lines are recast. Organic CV $3,906 million vs reported prior $3,285 million = +18.9%. Organic EPT $2,210 million = +29.1%. Organic CST $1,367 million = +12.9%. Organic Diabetes $829 million = +14.9%. Organic MedSurg $2,265 million.

Driver read. Four things; only the calendar is a problem.

CAS is still the engine, and it is not the whole story. EPT $2,218 million (+29.6%) is CRM + CAS. Martha: CAS +88% WW / +139% U.S., +9 pts U.S. share, TTM >$2B “ahead of the time frame we promised,” Affera U.S. installed base +35% sequential after +40% in Q4 (installed-base KPI, not a mixed-quarter revenue compare). CRM +15%, +80 bps global share. Steed asked the right question — what’s left without CAS — and the answer this quarter is CRM, CST +12.7%, Surgical +7.9%, ACM +14.4%. Breadth is the change vs the 2023–24 LSD years.
Neuroscience inflected. Reported +10.8% after four quarters of ~4–5%. CST (AiBLE, Stealth AXiS first full quarter) plus Pelvic Health +15% (Altaviva procedures “doubled” sequential). Neuromodulation $539 million vs $504 million is still the soft franchise (SCS + DBS replacements); SPR / BVNA are the patch, not yet the print.
Medical Surgical is no longer the ballast. S&E +7.9%, ACM +14.4% (McGRATH mid-40s, Microstream high-30s). Pieton: ACM “normalize as we move through 2027.” Hugo contribution “increased”; FYE >50k procedures, ~250 installs, procedure growth >2x market. Still a rounding error vs ISRG.
U.S. outran international. U.S. $4,906 million +16.1% vs ROW $4,810 million +11.3%. CAS and CRM are U.S.-heavy (EPT U.S. +41%). That is quality if it holds on a 13-week compare.

Consolidated P&L

Metric	FQ2'25	FQ3'25	FQ4'25	FQ1'26	FQ2'26	FQ3'26	FQ4'26	FQ1'27
Net sales ($M)	8,403	8,292	8,927	8,578	8,961	9,017	9,807	9,756
Revenue YoY %	—	—	—	—	+6.6	+8.7	+9.9	+13.7
NG GM %	65.2%	66.6%	65.1%	65.1%	65.9%	64.9%	65.4%	65.2%
GM YoY (bps)	—	—	—	—	+70	−170	+30	+10
NG op. profit ($M)	2,041	2,169	2,486	2,016	2,162	2,177	2,500	2,316
NG OP YoY %	—	—	—	—	+5.9	+0.4	+0.6	+14.9
NG diluted EPS ($)	1.26	1.39	1.62	1.26	1.36	1.36	1.55	1.45
NG EPS YoY %	—	—	—	—	+7.9	−2.2	−4.3	+15.1
GAAP EPS ($)	0.99	1.01	0.82	0.81	1.07	0.89	0.96	1.14
FCF ($M)	554	2,096	2,069	584	457	2,300	2,085	1,290
R&D ($M)	697	675	684	726	754	722	671	771
SG&A ($M)	2,757	2,717	2,721	2,806	2,965	2,956	3,056	3,198

NG GM +10 bps on pricing +30 bps and cost-down +50 bps against mix −50 bps (Diabetes + CAS capital). NG OM 23.7%, +10 bps — leverage is still a rounding error. SG&A +14% YoY (investing behind CAS/Hugo/Altaviva + integrating Scientia/SPR). R&D +6%. FCF $1,290 million vs $584 million is the quiet beat: OCF $1,793 million, capex $503 million. Conversion ~70% of NG NI $1,860 million; Pieton wants 80%. Acquisitions $1,162 million (Scientia Jun 12, SPR Jul 16) plus the $700M Cornerstone check are the capital-allocation tell.

GAAP EPS $1.14 vs NG $1.45 is the usual amortization / restructuring / M&A stack ($0.26 + $0.05 + $0.03) plus a minority-investment gain of $0.05. Use NG.

Reported revenue ($B) — 8 fiscal quarters

FQ2'25

FQ3'25

FQ4'25

FQ1'26

FQ2'26

FQ3'26

FQ4'26

FQ1'27

NG EPS YoY % — last 4 comparable quarters

FQ2'26 +7.9%

FQ3'26 −2.2%

FQ4'26 −4.3%

FQ1'27 +15.1%

Annual (5 years)

Metric	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026
Net sales ($M)	31,686	31,227	32,364	33,537	36,364
YoY %	—	−1.4	+3.6	+3.6	+8.4
NG EPS ($)	5.55	5.29	5.20	5.49	5.53
YoY %	—	−4.7	−1.7	+5.6	+0.7
NG OP ($M)	8,856	8,295	8,272	8,648	8,856
FCF ($M)	5,978	4,580	5,200	5,185	5,426
Dividends ($M)	3,383	3,616	3,666	3,589	3,639

FY26 was the first year of real top-line acceleration in a decade and zero EPS leverage (+0.7% NG EPS on +8.4% sales). FY27 guide +7.4–8.5% EPS on +7.5% organic mid is the test of whether mix/tariffs/Diabetes stop eating the operating line. FQ1’s +15% EPS is the extra week plus a 17.2% tax rate that reverses.

One-line verdict: accelerating on CAS/CRM/CST; the 13.7% headline is not the run-rate.

Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id 483). Organic rates from 8-K / Pieton prepared remarks. CAS dollars are company-disclosed, not a Daloopa series.

Beat / miss

Metric	Consensus (FMP)	Actual	Variance	Beat/Miss
Revenue	$9,546M	$9,756 million	+$210M / +2.2%	BEAT
Organic growth	co. mid ~11.7%	+13.7% (ex-week ~7.0%)	~+200 bps vs co. mid	BEAT
NG diluted EPS	$1.39	$1.45	+$0.06 / +4.3%	BEAT
GAAP EPS	—	$1.14	—	—

Pieton: “$1.45, six cents above the midpoint of our guidance range and street expectations.” JPMorgan (Robbie Marcus, via MedTech Dive) had the revenue beat at ~$220M — same order of magnitude as FMP.

Print	FQ2'25	FQ3'25	FQ4'25	FQ1'26	FQ2'26	FQ3'26	FQ4'26	FQ1'27
NG EPS vs FMP	BEAT	BEAT	BEAT	BEAT	BEAT	BEAT	BEAT	BEAT +4.3%
Revenue vs FMP	BEAT	MISS	BEAT	BEAT	BEAT	BEAT	BEAT	BEAT +2.2%

L12Q: NG EPS 12/12. Revenue 11/12 (only miss FQ3 FY25, 2025-02-18). L4Q 4/4 both. Pattern: consistent beater. Magnitude: this EPS beat (+4.3%) is the widest of the last four (FQ4 was +0.6%). Improving — with 670 bps of extra week in the revenue number.

Consensus from FMP earnings endpoint (vintage 2026-09-21). Actuals Daloopa.

Guidance deep dive

Metric	Prior (FQ4'26)	New low	New high	New mid	vs prior mid	Street / implied
FY27 organic growth	6.75–7.25%	7.25%	7.75%	7.50%	+50 bps	FQ1 underlying ~7.0%
FY27 NG EPS	$5.90–$6.00	$5.94	$6.00	$5.97	+$0.02	FMP FY ~$5.94 going in
FY27 NG EPS YoY	6.7–8.5%	7.4%	8.5%	8.0%	floor +70 bps	vs FY26 $5.53
FY27 NG OM	~+60 bps (FQ4)	—	—	~+50 bps	−10 bps	OP +~10%
Q2 organic	—	—	—	~6%	n/a	below FY mid
Q2 NG EPS	—	$1.32	$1.34	$1.33	n/a	FMP $1.34 · vs LY $1.36
FY FX on sales	—	~$50M headwind	~$150M headwind	~$100M	n/a	Q2 $25–$75M headwind

Waterfall (EPS floor): prior $5.90 → Q1 beat vs $1.39 street (~+$0.06 in the quarter, ~+$0.04 kept in the year) → tax timing +$0.01 that reverses → Cornerstone foregone interest on $700M (negative) → reinvestment of “a portion” of revenue upside (negative) → new floor $5.94. Ceiling never moved. That is not an estimate overhaul. It is banking the extra week and giving some of it back.

Trajectory vs reported: FQ1 underlying ~7.0% sits inside the new 7.25–7.75% band (slightly light of the 7.50% mid). Q2 ~6% is a deceleration of ~100 bps in the YoY rate vs underlying FQ1 and ~150 bps vs the FY mid. H2 has to run above 7.5% for the year to print. CAS comps get harder (“growth rates moderating over the remainder of the fiscal year”). ACM “normalizes.” Extra week does not repeat.

Tone vs FQ4: more conviction on CAS (2x market → 2.5x; Q2 >3x) and on “the big 3.” More open that OM expansion was cut 10 bps to fund growth and Cornerstone. Diabetes language unchanged. No long-term algorithm at the call; that is parked for December 10–11.

Guidance series Daloopa 3913598 / 3913599 / 2144364 / 2144365. Q2 organic and EPS ranges from Pieton prepared remarks (FMP transcript).

Historical performance — inflection points

Reported revenue YoY stair-step: +6.6% → +8.7% → +9.9% → +13.7%. Accel of the YoY rate: +210 / +120 / +380 bps. Subtract extra-week 670 bps and FQ1 underlying ~7.0% is +40 bps vs FQ4’s +6.6% organic — real, small, and consistent with a 7.5% FY.

NG EPS YoY: +7.9% → −2.2% → −4.3% → +15.1%. The two negative quarters were FY26’s leverage failure (tariffs, mix, FX). FQ1 inflects. Q2 guide $1.32–$1.34 vs $1.36 puts EPS YoY back below zero unless they beat the band. Do not underwrite a four-quarter EPS acceleration from one 53-week print.

FY stack: FY23 −1.4% sales / −4.7% NG EPS → FY24 +3.6% / −1.7% → FY25 +3.6% / +5.6% → FY26 +8.4% / +0.7%. The company has not delivered EPS leverage in the year the top line finally moved. That is the FY27 debate.

Key catalysts

Catalyst	Timing	What consensus needs	What we heard
FQ2 print	~2026-11-17	~6% organic, EPS $1.32–$1.34, FMP $1.34 / $9.48B	First 13-week quarter. Extra week gone.
CAS / Affera	FY27	2.5x mid-teens market; Q2 &;3x then comps	TTM &;$2B; +9 pts U.S. share; IB +35% seq; Sphere-360 EU; VT CE Mark; Japan
Hugo	FYE FY27	&;50k procedures, ~250 installs, 2x market procedure growth	U.S. general surgery + gyn expected fall; Touch Surgery Aide 1,500+ ORs
Cornerstone / Sentire	FY28 P&L	$700M; OUS distribution; optionality to acquire	FY27 = foregone interest only. Larry asked if Hugo is the problem.
MiniMed split-off	“before FYE,” no date	~20 bps growth, +50 bps GM / +100 bps OM off the P&L	“No hesitation” / “when economics are optimal.” Same hedge as June.
Ardian / Symplicity	H2 transradial; TCT AFFIRM	Qualitative	Highmark coverage; still not a number.
Altaviva	FY27	Pelvic Health +15%; procedures doubled seq	Early. Offsets SNM softness.
Scientia + SPR	FY27 inorganic	~$150M, not in organic	Closed Jun 12 / Jul 16. 20%+ CAGR buckets.
Investor Day	2026-12-10/11 Charlotte	LT algorithm	Joanne asked. No numbers on the call.

Street Q&A

Analyst	Ask	Badge
Travis Steed, BofA	Base ex-CAS; Cornerstone; OM −10 bps	Well answered — breadth + $150M inorganic + reinvestment/interest/tax
Larry Biegelsen, Wells	Is Cornerstone a Hugo hedge? Acquire? U.S.?	Well answered — Hugo = U.S.; Cornerstone = OUS choice; optionality, not a bid
Vijay Kumar, Evercore	Split-off date; CAS 2.5x vs 2x	CAS well answered. Diabetes deflected (“when economics are optimal”)
Mike Kratky, Leerink	Affera utilization / share stabilize	Partial — 75% of U.S. IB in high-volume centers; no utilization %
Anthony Petrone, Mizuho	Post-diabetes capital; scale M&A; buyback	Strategy well answered. Buyback deflected (“no specific plans”)
Matt O’Brien, Piper	Ardian trajectory / transradial	Qualitative well answered; no $
Robbie Marcus, JPM	Reinvest vs margin; tariff rebate $	Margin well answered. Rebate deflected (“slight net negative”)
Joanne Wuensch, Citi	Has the mid-SD / high-SD formula shifted?	Deflected — urgency, no new LT algorithm

Deflected pile: MiniMed date, buyback, tariff-refund dollars, Affera utilization rate, long-term growth algorithm. Those are the five things the street still does not have.

Contradictions

HIGH — 13.7% organic vs 670 bps extra week. Pieton in the same breath: organic +13.7%, extra week $570M / 670 bps. Underlying ~7.0%. Disclosed, still the number that will get copy-pasted.

HIGH — FY 7.25–7.75% vs Q2 ~6%. The extra week is FQ1-only. Q2 is the first clean quarter and is guided 150 bps light of the FY midpoint. H2 has to over-earn.

HIGH — EPS floor raise vs Q2 EPS down YoY. $5.94–$6.00 vs Q2 $1.32–$1.34 against FQ2 FY26 $1.36. $0.01 of the raise is tax timing that reverses. Ceiling unchanged.

MED — OM +50 bps vs ~+60 bps in June. Travis caught it. Pieton: reinvestment + Cornerstone interest. Growth mode is the tell; leverage is still a 2028 story if mix (CAS capital, Diabetes) does not fade.

MED — Hugo “doubling down” vs $700M Cornerstone. Larry asked if this signals a lack of confidence in Hugo. Answer: opposite, OUS access, 2–3 winning platforms. A second-robot check of that size is still a tell that one platform is not enough to be the #2.

MED — Diabetes “no hesitation” vs no date. Same line as FQ4. MiniMed is +15% and +20 bps to MDT growth; they will not give it away cheap. Rational. Still a delay. Deconsolidation is +50 bps GM / +100 bps OM — the margin story the street actually wants.

No 8-K vs transcript number conflicts on sales, EPS, or segment dollars.

Indirect read-throughs

Macro. Pieton: procedure volumes “healthy … broad-based and not concentrated in any one therapy or region.” Constructive for med-tech utilization. China was not a problem paragraph this quarter.

Relationship	Name	Datapoint	Implication	Confidence
Competitor	BSX	CAS +88% / +139% U.S.; +9 pts U.S. share; Q2 CAS &;3x market	Share loss on Farapulse; PFA TAM still expanding	High (disclosed share)
Competitor	JNJ MedTech	Sphere-360 “goes right at the heart of our largest PFA competitor”	Direct shot at the other PFA book	High
Competitor	ISRG	Hugo 2x market procedures; Cornerstone OUS; RAS still single-digit penetrated	Long-dated #2 campaign. ISRG still the leader.	Moderate (Hugo $ still small)
Competitor	ABT	CRM +15%, +80 bps share; U.S. ICT −0.8%; TAVR “stable”	CRM share take; TAVR still not MDT’s growth engine	Moderate
Competitor	SYK	CST +13% / +14% U.S.; spine robotics “single digits”	Enabling-tech pull-through	Moderate
Affiliate	MiniMed (MMED)	Diabetes +15% / +14.9% organic; split-off pending	Standalone is the pump/CGM fight; MDT decon is a margin event	High
Supplier / other	NVDA	Touch Surgery Aide on Holoscan; 300x OR compute	Sentiment only	Low

Sequencing. MDT reported 2026-09-01, early in the device calendar. BSX / ISRG / SYK prints around this window are the cross-check on PFA, RAS, and spine.

Industry: do not compare 13.7% to a 52-week peer. Use ~7% organic ex-week.

News context & reaction

Daloopa OHLCV (adjusted): 2026-08-31 close $90.65 → 2026-09-01 close $92.04 (+1.53% on 18.8M shares vs 6.5M on 8/28). 2026-09-03 $93.10. Last Daloopa print 2026-09-18 $92.13. FMP snapshot 2026-09-21 $91.85, cap $117.6B, 52-week $73.31–$106.33. The print was rewarded, not rerate — a 1.5% gap-and-hold after a 53-week beat is how the street treats extra-week math.

MedTech Dive (Sep 1): JPMorgan’s Robbie Marcus flagged the ~$220M sales beat and CV as the bright spot. Primary IR release is the source for all operating claims above.

What to watch / what could go wrong

Q2 is the real print. ~6% organic and EPS $1.32–$1.34 vs $1.36 last year. If CAS comps bite and ACM “normalizes” on schedule, the FY 7.5% mid is H2-dependent.
Mix. CAS capital and Diabetes are −50 bps of GM. MiniMed decon is the clean-up (+50 / +100 bps) and it has no date.
CAS share math. +9 pts in a quarter is not a run-rate. Pieton already told you growth “moderates” after Q2 as comps stack.
Cornerstone / Hugo. $700M plus organic RAS spend is a lot of capital for a #2 that is still single-digit penetrated. FY28 is when Sentire shows up.
Tariffs. Slight net negative in FQ1 after refunds; zero refunds assumed for the rest of the year. Upside if refunds repeat; downside if they do not and the $250M FY frame from June still bites.

HOLD. Own the CAS/CRM compounding and the 7% organic company. Do not pay for 13.7%.

Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id 483; citations on each figure). Documents: 8-K EX-99.1 27171453, 10-Q 27176018. Transcript: FMP MDT FY2027Q1 (2026-09-01). Prices: Daloopa get_stock_prices. Consensus: FMP. Data sourced from Daloopa.