Medtronic — FQ4 FY2026 Earnings Preview
FQ4 FY2026 = Quarter ended April 24, 2026 ·
Reports Wednesday, June 3, 2026 BMO (5:45 am CT release; 6:45 am CT call) ·
Prepared May 21, 2026 · FYE late April · 13 days out
Earnings Date
June 3, 2026
BMO · 6:45am CT call · 13 days out
Consensus Revenue
~$9.2B
Mgmt: ~6% organic similar to Q3
Consensus EPS
~$1.72
Implied Q4 from $5.62-$5.66 FY guide
Stock / 52-wk
$78.15 · +1% YTD
52-wk $76–$96 (multi-year base)
Q3 FY26 Organic Growth
+6%
Highest in 10 quarters; +50bps vs Q2
FY26 EPS Guide
$5.62–$5.66
Maintained on Q3 call; +5% YoY
Tariff Impact FY26
$185M COGS
$75M in Q4 alone (-30bps GM)
MiniMed Separation
End CY26
Two-step IPO + split — on track
Executive Summary
Medtronic reports FQ4 FY2026 (quarter ended April 24, 2026) and full fiscal year on
Wednesday, June 3 BMO. The setup is constructive: Q3 FY26 was the highest revenue growth
in 10 quarters (+6% organic, +8.7% reported, $9B), management guided Q4 to "similar to Q3, around 6%
organic" off a stronger Q4 FY25 comp, and the FY26 EPS guide of $5.62-$5.66 was maintained despite the $75M
Q4 tariff drag. The story is now about (a) whether the four generational growth drivers (PFA, Symplicity Spyral,
Altaviva, Hugo) sustain the +6% trajectory, (b) the MiniMed separation timeline, and (c) FY27 set-up.
Bull case: Multi-year inflection underway. Cardiac Ablation Solutions
(CAS) grew +80% YoY in Q3 with PFA up nearly +200% globally — Medtronic gained 4 points of share in this
rapidly growing market. MiniMed (Diabetes) hit +15% reported / +8% organic on Simplera Sync + Instinct launches
plus 780G pharmacy availability. Cranial & Spinal Tech: Stealth AXiS launched, expected to contribute starting
Q4. Symplicity Spyral renal denervation, Altaviva (urinary incontinence), and Hugo surgical robot each represent
>$1B revenue potential. U.S. growth of +6% in Q3 was the best since FY19 ex-COVID. China stable on VBP.
EPS guide maintained despite tariffs implies operating leverage absorbing the headwind. The MiniMed separation
(end of CY26) unlocks remainco multiple expansion (currently penalized for the consumer-oriented Diabetes mix).
Bear case: The +6% organic growth bar is hard to sustain — Q4 has the
toughest YoY comp of the year. Tariff impact of $75M in Q4 hits gross margin -30bps. Op margin guide of -50bps
including tariffs implies investment cycle continues. MITG (Medical Surgical) growth has been the slowest
segment (+1.4% Q3 YoY) — surgical & endoscopy soft on competitive pressure (Intuitive ISRG, Stryker SYK in
robotics). Neuroscience growth deceleration in Q3 (Neurovascular drag from China VBP + Vantage recall) creates
mix overhang. Specialty Therapies flat in Q3. The big multi-year transformation thesis (PFA, Hugo, Symplicity)
depends on multiple FDA approvals and reimbursement decisions playing out across FY27. Stock at $78 trades
at ~14x NTM EPS — cheap vs medtech peers but reflects the slow-grower base case.
What's at stake: Confirmation that (a) Q4 organic growth lands at +5.5-6%,
(b) FY26 EPS comes in at $5.62-$5.66 guide range with no last-minute trim, (c) initial FY27 guidance
is constructive (Street modeling +5% revenue, +6-7% EPS), (d) MiniMed separation timeline reaffirmed for
end CY26, (e) PFA momentum sustains. A clean print with constructive FY27 guide likely takes the stock
back toward $90; a Q4 EPS miss or cautious FY27 set-up likely re-tests the $75 floor.
Guidance & Consensus
Guidance issued / maintained on Q3 FY26 earnings call, February 17, 2026. Note: MDT does not typically issue formal quarterly revenue/EPS ranges — they guide full-year and give organic growth color.
| Metric | Low | Midpoint | High | Consensus | Prior Year | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY26 — Revenue Growth (Organic) | ~+5% | ~+6% | ~+7% | ~+6% | +5.2% (Q4 FY25) | Mgmt: 'similar to Q3' |
| Q4 FY26 — Revenue ($B) | $9.1 | $9.2 | $9.3 | ~$9.2 | $8.93B (Q4 FY25) | Implied from organic + FX |
| Q4 FY26 — Non-GAAP EPS (implied) | $1.71 | $1.73 | $1.75 | ~$1.72 | $1.62 (Q4 FY25) | Calc'd: $5.64 mid - $3.91 YTD |
| Q4 FY26 — Tariff Impact | — | $75M | — | — | — | Hits COGS only; in guide |
| FY26 — Non-GAAP EPS | $5.62 | $5.64 | $5.66 | ~$5.64 | $5.36 (FY25) | +4.8% to +5.6% YoY; MAINTAINED |
| FY26 — Revenue Growth (Organic) | ~+5.0% | ~+5.5% | ~+6.0% | ~+5.5% | +4.6% (FY25) | Acceleration from FY25 |
| FY26 — Op Profit Growth | +5% | +5–6% | +7% | ~+6% | +0% (FY25) | +7% ex-tariffs |
| FY26 — Op Margin (vs prior year) | -50bps | -50bps | Flat | ~-30bps | Flat (FY25) | Tariff dragging; flat ex-tariffs |
| FY26 — Tariff Impact (Total) | — | $185M | — | — | — | Annualized COGS hit |
| FY27 — Revenue Growth (Initial Guide) | +4% | +5% | +5.5% | TBD Jun 3 | +5.5% (FY26) | Watch: deceleration or sustainment? |
| FY27 — Non-GAAP EPS (Initial Guide) | $5.95 | $6.05 | $6.20 | TBD Jun 3 | ~$5.64 (FY26) | Watch: $6+ would be bullish |
Historical 8-Quarter Metrics (Segment Revenue)
| Metric | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Worldwide Rev ($M) | $8,533 | $7,967 | $8,366 | $8,260 | $8,896 | $8,506 | $8,926 | $8,985 |
| Reported YoY % | — | — | — | — | +4.3% | +6.8% | +6.7% | +8.7% |
| Organic YoY % | — | — | — | — | +5.4% | +4.8% | +5.3% | +6.0% |
| Cardiovascular ($M) | $3,130 | $3,007 | $3,102 | $3,037 | $3,336 | $3,285 | $3,436 | $3,457 |
| Neuroscience ($M) | $2,545 | $2,317 | $2,451 | $2,458 | $2,620 | $2,416 | $2,562 | $2,558 |
| Medical Surgical/MITG ($M) | $2,198 | $1,996 | $2,128 | $2,072 | $2,212 | $2,083 | $2,171 | $2,173 |
| Diabetes / MiniMed ($M) | $660 | $647 | $686 | $694 | $728 | $721 | $757 | $796 |
| Non-GAAP Diluted EPS | $1.46 | $1.23 | $1.26 | $1.39 | $1.62 | $1.26 | $1.26 | $1.39 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $2,351 | $466 | $554 | $2,096 | $2,069 | $584 | $457 | $2,300 |
Organic growth has accelerated through FY26: +4.8% Q1 → +5.3% Q2 → +6.0% Q3 (10-quarter high). Cardiovascular is the growth engine ($3.46B Q3, +14% YoY) driven by PFA share gains. Diabetes accelerated to +15% reported / +8% organic in Q3 on Simplera Sync + Instinct launches. FCF cadence: Q1/Q2 weak (working capital build), Q3/Q4 strong (collection cycle). Segment revenue cells link to Daloopa source pages.
Four Generational Growth Drivers — The FY27+ Story
CEO Geoff Martha framed Q3 FY26 around four product platforms each capable of >$1B revenue serving large underpenetrated markets. These are the multi-year structural levers that justify a MDT re-rating from "GDP+ slow-grower" to "mid-to-high single-digit revenue and EPS compounder."
- PFA Platform for AFib — Cardiac Ablation Solutions (CAS) +80% YoY in Q3; PFA itself +200% worldwide. MDT gained 4 share points in this rapidly growing market. Pulsed-field ablation is replacing radiofrequency in atrial fibrillation procedures (#1 most common arrhythmia). Watch Q4 for sustained acceleration.
- Symplicity Spyral (Hypertension) — Renal denervation system, FDA approved late 2023. Commercial ramp underway; reimbursement decisions still pacing. $1B+ addressable as it expands beyond treatment-resistant hypertension.
- Altaviva (Urge Urinary Incontinence) — Sacral neuromodulation device with rechargeable battery; FDA cleared 2025. Competes with InterStim platform (also Medtronic). Smaller TAM but high-margin.
- Hugo Surgical Robot — Soft-tissue robotic surgery competing with Intuitive Surgical (ISRG da Vinci). Outside US deployment underway; US clinical study in progress. The single largest TAM of the four — if Hugo can take even 5% of the robotic surgery market, it's $2-3B+.
Additional pipeline per Q3 call: Stealth AXiS (navigation + robotics in spine) launched in Q3 with FDA clearance, expected to contribute starting Q4. MiniMed Flex (closed-loop patch pump) submitted to FDA; Vivera 3rd-gen closed-loop algorithm in US pivotal study. 780G pharmacy availability covers majority of commercially insured US lives.
MiniMed Separation — The Structural Catalyst
The plan: Two-step IPO + split. Step 1 = IPO of MiniMed (likely H2 CY26 — investors should hear more on June 3). Step 2 = subsequent tax-free spin to MDT shareholders. Management has guided to complete by end of calendar year 2026.
Why it matters: Diabetes (MiniMed) is ~$3.0B in revenue at +8% organic growth — a higher-growth, lower-margin, more consumer-oriented business. The remaining "Medical Devices ex-Diabetes" business is ~$30B+ at lower growth, higher margin. The market currently penalizes the combined entity with a discount-to-pure-play multiple (MDT at ~14x vs ISRG ~50x, ABT ~22x, BSX ~28x). The separation arguably unlocks $5-10/share of value if RemainCo trades to peer multiples.
Key questions for Q4 call:
- IPO timing — within H1 vs H2 CY26?
- RemainCo capital structure — debt allocation, dividend policy
- Management team for MiniMed (NewCo)
- Tax treatment confirmation for the spin step
- Investor education / roadshow timing
Risk: Diabetes was the fastest-growing segment in Q3 (+15% reported). Removing it from the consolidated growth rate lowers MDT RemainCo's headline growth by ~50bps. Bear narrative: MDT is "selling the growth" to monetize the multiple — true, but the multiple expansion mathematically dominates the growth dilution.
Tariff Impact — Quantified and Managed
Management quantified the tariff hit on the Q3 call: $185M COGS impact for FY26 ($75M in Q4 alone). This drives gross margin from a "slightly up ex tariffs" trajectory to -30bps reported. Op margin guide moves from "flat ex tariffs" to -50bps including tariffs.
What's notable: MDT MAINTAINED the $5.62-$5.66 FY26 EPS guide despite the tariff drag — implying offsetting strength elsewhere (revenue beat, pricing, COGS efficiency). This is the kind of operating discipline that supports the bull case on FY27.
FY27 implications: If tariffs continue at the current run rate ($75M+ per quarter), FY27 would carry $300M+ of COGS headwind ($185M was a partial year). Management has not yet quantified FY27 tariff assumptions — this is a key question for June 3. Pricing actions and supply chain rerouting (out of China, into Mexico / Costa Rica / Ireland) are the typical playbook. Watch for any new pricing announcements or supply chain disclosures.
Management Tone Assessment — Post Q3 FY26 (Feb 17, 2026)
| Topic | Tone | Evidence (Q3 FY26 Call, Feb 17, 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Overall framing | Confidently Bullish | Martha: 'It's an exciting time for Medtronic. We're unlocking new markets and accelerating our performance.' Q3 highest growth in 10 quarters. Tone more declarative than at any point in FY25. |
| PFA / Cardiac Ablation | Strongly Bullish | CAS +80%, PFA +200% WW. 4 points of share gained. Single most enthusiastic management commentary on any product line in MedTech in 2026. |
| Diabetes / MiniMed | Bullish — separation on track | +15% reported, +8% organic. Simplera Sync + Instinct launches accelerating US. 780G pharmacy availability. Vivera 3rd-gen in pivotal study. Separation 'perfectly on track' for end CY26. |
| Neuroscience | Mixed | Cranial & Spinal +MSD with Core Spine +8% pull-through. Stealth AXiS launched, contributing Q4. Specialty Therapies flat. Neurovascular still drag from China VBP + Vantage recall (mostly behind). |
| Medical Surgical / MITG | Cautiously stable | Slowest-growing segment. Continued investment in Hugo for surgical robotics. Surgical & endoscopy under competitive pressure. |
| Generational growth drivers | Strategic centerpiece | Four products (PFA, Symplicity, Altaviva, Hugo) explicitly called out as $1B+ TAM each. Tone signals multi-year investment thesis. |
| Tariffs | Quantified and managed | $185M FY26 ($75M Q4). EPS guide MAINTAINED despite this — implies operating offsets. Cleanest tariff commentary in medtech this quarter. |
| FY26 EPS guidance | Maintained — confident | $5.62-$5.66 reaffirmed. Implies Q4 EPS ~$1.73 (vs $1.62 prior year, +7%). Could be conservative given operating cadence. |
| Capital return / M&A | Active | Continued investment in venture and tuck-in M&A in areas core to MDT. Dividend Aristocrat status maintained. No major buyback announcement. |
Beat / Miss Track Record — 7 / 8 vs Street
| Quarter | Rev Cons. | Rev Actual | Rev Beat | EPS Cons. | EPS Actual | EPS Beat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY24 | ~$8.36B | $8.59B | +2.7% | ~$1.45 | $1.46 | +0.7% |
| Q1 FY25 | ~$7.93B | $7.97B | +0.5% | ~$1.20 | $1.23 | +2.5% |
| Q2 FY25 | ~$8.27B | $8.40B | +1.6% | ~$1.25 | $1.26 | +0.8% |
| Q3 FY25 | ~$8.32B | $8.29B | -0.4% | ~$1.36 | $1.39 | +2.2% |
| Q4 FY25 | ~$8.83B | $8.93B | +1.1% | ~$1.58 | $1.62 | +2.5% |
| Q1 FY26 | ~$8.46B | $8.58B | +1.4% | ~$1.22 | $1.26 | +3.3% |
| Q2 FY26 | ~$8.83B | $8.93B | +1.1% | ~$1.25 | $1.26 | +0.8% |
| Q3 FY26 | ~$8.93B | $9.00B | +0.8% | ~$1.36 | $1.39 | +2.2% |
Beat Rate (L8Q)
7 / 8 — 88%
EPS 8/8; Revenue 7/8 (Q3 FY25 light miss)
Avg Rev Beat L4Q
+1.1%
Small, consistent beats
Avg EPS Beat L4Q
+2.2%
Range +0.8% to +3.3%
Key takeaway: MDT is a consistent low-single-digit beater on both revenue and EPS — the kind of
predictable execution that comes with $33B+ scale. EPS beats average +2.2% over the last 4 quarters, suggesting a
print near $1.76-$1.78 (vs implied guide $1.73) is reasonable. The Q3 FY25 revenue miss (-0.4%) was the only stumble
in 8 quarters and was driven by a non-recurring China VBP impact. Repeat of historical EPS beat magnitude on the
$1.72 consensus would put EPS at ~$1.76 — a clean print without surprises.
Key Catalysts — Bull vs Bear
Bull Catalysts
- Q4 organic growth lands +6%+ — sustains 10-quarter high
- FY26 EPS lands at high end ($5.66) or beats it — confirms operating leverage absorbed tariffs
- FY27 initial guide: revenue +5%+, EPS $6.00-$6.20 — bullish framing for the cycle
- PFA / Cardiac Ablation continues +50%+ growth
- MiniMed separation timing confirmed for H2 CY26 with clear IPO mechanics
- RemainCo capital structure favorable to shareholder returns post-separation
- Hugo robot US clinical study positive read-out
- Symplicity Spyral reimbursement expansion announcement
- MITG (surgical) growth re-accelerates above +3%
- Buyback authorization announcement (latent capital return narrative)
Bear Risks
- Q4 organic growth misses +5.5% — decelerates from Q3 +6%
- FY26 EPS comes in at low end or misses ($5.62) — tariffs absorbed late
- FY27 initial guide cautious: revenue +3-4%, EPS <$5.95
- MiniMed separation timeline pushed to early CY27
- PFA growth decelerates below +100% — competitive pressure from JNJ Varipulse / BSX Farapulse
- Tariff impact escalates in FY27 with no quantified mitigation
- China VBP expansion to new categories hits Neuroscience further
- Hugo competitive setback or US clinical study delay
- Gross margin pressure beyond -30bps from manufacturing inefficiencies
- Macro / payor pressure on elective procedures
Peer Earnings — Read-Throughs into the Print
| Peer | Earnings Date | Read-Across |
|---|---|---|
| ISRG (Intuitive Surgical) | Reported Apr 17 (Q1 CY26) | da Vinci platform — direct comp for Hugo. Procedure growth + system placements set the bar. |
| BSX (Boston Scientific) | Reported Apr 23 (Q1 CY26) | Farapulse PFA competitor (the share leader pre-MDT). EP growth comments = direct PFA read-across. |
| ABT (Abbott) | Reported Apr 16 (Q1 CY26) | Libre CGM (Diabetes comp), Cardiovascular and Diagnostics. End-market color. |
| JNJ MedTech (Johnson & Johnson) | Reported Apr 22 (Q1 CY26) | Varipulse PFA + Monarch robotics. Direct comp for both PFA and Hugo trajectories. |
| DXCM (Dexcom) | Reported May 1 (Q1 CY26) | CGM comp for MiniMed. US growth trajectory and pharmacy channel signal. |
| PODD (Insulet) | Reported May 8 | Omnipod platform — direct insulin pump competitor to MiniMed. |
| SYK (Stryker) | Reported May 1 | Mako robotics — broader surgical robotics demand signal. |
| ZBH (Zimmer Biomet) | Reported May 5 | Joint replacement — adjacency to MDT Cranial & Spinal. |
What to Watch on June 3 (BMO)
1. Q4 organic revenue growth vs ~6%:
Mgmt guided 'similar to Q3.' Anything below +5% breaks the 10-quarter acceleration; +6%+ is bullish reaffirmation.
2. Q4 non-GAAP EPS vs $1.71-$1.75 implied:
Street is at $1.72. A print at $1.75+ implies operating leverage absorbing tariffs cleanly.
3. FY26 final EPS vs $5.62-$5.66 guide:
$5.66 = high end, +5.6% YoY. Any miss breaks the maintained guidance narrative.
4. FY27 INITIAL GUIDANCE — the main event:
Revenue growth (Street ~+5%), EPS (~$6.05), op margin trajectory, tariff assumption. Sets the multi-year setup.
5. PFA / Cardiac Ablation Q4 growth:
Was +200% in Q3. Watch for sustainability vs JNJ Varipulse + BSX Farapulse competitive ramp.
6. MiniMed (Diabetes) growth:
Was +15% reported / +8% organic in Q3. Continued acceleration = momentum into separation.
7. Cardiovascular total growth and segment mix:
Was $3.46B / 'low double-digit' organic in Q3. Cardiac Rhythm, Structural Heart, Coronary & Peripheral breakdown.
8. Neuroscience growth — Specialty Therapies recovery:
Was flat in Q3. New product cycle starting; watch for return to growth.
9. Medical Surgical (MITG) — sequential trajectory:
Slowest segment. Watch for Hugo contribution color, surgical & endoscopy growth.
10. MiniMed separation timeline + mechanics:
End CY26 reaffirmed? IPO timing (H1 vs H2)? Tax treatment for spin step? Management team disclosure?
11. Tariff impact for FY27:
Quantified or qualitative? $300M+ assumption is the bear case; pricing offsets are the bull case.
12. Operating margin trajectory ex-tariffs:
Flat ex-tariff in FY26. FY27 target = margin expansion as tariff laps?
13. Capital allocation — buyback, M&A, dividend:
MDT is a Dividend Aristocrat. Any new buyback authorization or M&A signal.
14. Stealth AXiS contribution:
Launched Q3. Watch for any Q4 contribution color in Cranial & Spinal Technologies.
15. China commentary:
Q3: 'low single-digit growth.' Watch for VBP expansion to new categories.
Source: Daloopa (8-quarter historical metrics — worldwide revenue by segment Cardiovascular / Neuroscience / Medical Surgical / Diabetes, total reportable segments, organic adjusted revenue by segment, free cash flow; cells link to Daloopa source pages). Additional sources: Medtronic Q3 FY26 earnings press release (Feb 17, 2026) and earnings call transcript (Financial Modeling Prep API), Medtronic Q1-Q2 FY26 transcripts, Medtronic IR website (news.medtronic.com / investorrelations.medtronic.com), public stock price data (May 19-20, 2026 — $78.15). EPS figures from MDT press releases (Q1 FY26 $1.26, Q2 FY26 $1.26, Q3 FY26 $1.39).