KMI — Q1 2026 Earnings Preview
Kinder Morgan, Inc. | Reports ~April 16, 2026 After Market Close | Natural Gas Midstream | $73.35B market cap | Bellwether for midstream sector Q1 reporting
Earnings Date
Apr 16
2026 — After Market Close
Consensus Adj. EPS
$0.34
Flat YoY — tough Q1 2025 comp
Consensus EBITDA
~$2.27B
+5% YoY · Q1 seasonally strongest
Project Backlog
$10B
60% tied to power generation
FY2026 EPS Guide
$1.36–1.37
+5-8% YoY · Conservative guidance pattern
LNG Feed Gas Target
19.8 Bcf/d
2026 avg · All-time record · +19% YoY
Dividend Yield
3.55%
$1.17/share · Well-covered by DCF
Credit Rating
BBB+
S&P · Fitch · Moody's positive — triple upgrade
Investment Setup
Kinder Morgan enters Q1 2026 as the first midstream bellwether to report this quarter, after a record-setting Q4 2025 (EBITDA +10%, Adj. EPS +22%). The $10B project backlog with 60% power-exposure positions KMI for multi-year EBITDA compounding. Q1 2026 consensus EPS of $0.34 is flat YoY — a tough comp against Q1 2025's cold-weather-driven strength. The key near-term catalyst is FERC final certificates for MSX and SSE4 (expected by July 2026), which would unlock $5.2B in projects. Management has consistently beaten annual budget guidance — guide conservatively, deliver more.
| Metric | FY2025 Actual | FY2026 Guidance | FY2026 Consensus | YoY Growth (Guide) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | ~$8.39B | ~$8.6–8.7B | ~$8.7B | +4% |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.30 | $1.36–1.37 | ~$1.37 | +5–8% |
| DCF per Share | $2.42 | $2.52 | ~$2.50 | +4% |
| Dividend per Share | $1.17 | $1.17 | $1.17 | Flat |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 3.8x | ~3.6x | ~3.6x | Improving |
| Growth CapEx | ~$3.15B | ~$3.4B | — | +8% |
| Metric | Q1 2025 Actual | Q1 2026 Consensus | YoY Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4,241M | ~$3,880M | -8.5% | Lower nat gas prices compress commodity pass-through; services revenue more stable |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $2,157M | ~$2,270M | +5% | Q1 typically strongest seasonal quarter; Q1 2025 benefited from cold weather boost |
| GAAP EPS | $0.32 | ~$0.32 | Flat | |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.34 | $0.34 | Flat | Tough comp — Q1 2025 was very strong; cold weather drove upside |
| DCF per Share | $0.66 | ~$0.66 | Flat |
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $3,842 | $3,572 | $3,699 | $3,987 | $4,241 | $4,042 | $4,146 | $4,508 |
| Rev YoY | — | — | — | — | +10.4% | +13.2% | +12.1% | +13.1% |
| Adj. EBITDA ($M) | $2,137 | $1,858 | $1,880 | $2,063 | $2,157 | $1,972 | $1,991 | $2,271 |
| EBITDA YoY | — | — | — | — | +0.9% | +6.1% | +5.9% | +10.1% |
| Adj. EPS ($) | $0.34 | $0.25 | $0.25 | $0.32 | $0.34 | $0.28 | $0.29 | $0.39 |
| EPS YoY | — | — | — | — | 0% | +12% | +16% | +22% |
| GAAP EPS ($) | $0.33 | $0.26 | $0.28 | $0.30 | $0.32 | $0.32 | $0.28 | $0.45 |
| DCF per Share ($) | $0.64 | $0.49 | $0.49 | $0.57 | $0.66 | $0.52 | $0.56 | $0.68 |
EPS: 3 beats, 3 meets, 2 misses (75% beat-or-meet rate). Beats tend to be $0.01-$0.02; misses are narrow. Revenue beat rate: 5 of 6 recent quarters (83%) — though revenue less meaningful due to commodity pass-throughs.
| Quarter | Adj. EPS | EPS Cons. | EPS Delta | EPS Result | Revenue | Rev Cons. | Rev Delta | Rev Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | $0.34 | $0.34 | $0.00 | Meet | $3,842M | ~$3,800M | +$42M | Beat |
| Q2 2024 | $0.25 | $0.25 | $0.00 | Meet | $3,572M | — | — | — |
| Q3 2024 | $0.25 | $0.26 | -$0.01 | Miss | $3,699M | $4,123M | -$424M | Miss |
| Q4 2024 | $0.32 | $0.30 | +$0.02 | Beat | $3,987M | ~$3,850M | +$137M | Beat |
| Q1 2025 | $0.34 | $0.34 | $0.00 | Meet | $4,241M | ~$4,100M | +$141M | Beat |
| Q2 2025 | $0.28 | $0.27 | +$0.01 | Beat | $4,042M | ~$3,950M | +$92M | Beat |
| Q3 2025 | $0.29 | $0.30 | -$0.01 | Miss | $4,146M | ~$4,060M | +$86M | Beat |
| Q4 2025 | $0.39 | $0.37 | +$0.02 | Beat | $4,508M | $4,330M | +$178M | Beat |
Annual guidance accuracy is the key signal. FY2024: budgeted 4% EBITDA growth, delivered 5%. FY2025: budgeted 4% EBITDA / 10% EPS growth; delivered 6% EBITDA / 13% EPS growth — beating budget "by more than the Outrigger acquisition." FY2026 budget: 4% EBITDA growth, 5-8% EPS growth. The consistent pattern of conservative budgeting suggests the street consensus is already at the bullish end of management guidance.
Rich Kinder — Executive Chairman
"This astounding growth is enormously beneficial to the midstream sector and especially to companies like Kinder Morgan that have extensive pipeline networks along the Texas, Louisiana Gulf Coast."
Estimated LNG feed gas demand at 19.8 Bcf/d for 2026 (record, +19% YoY), growing to 34+ Bcf/d by 2030. Described bullish outlook on natural gas demand as "grounded in reality."
Kim Dang — President & CEO
"A fantastic fourth quarter, producing record results for the quarter and the year... we beat our budget by more than the contributions from our Outrigger acquisition."
Backlog grew to $10B with ~$650M net additions in Q4 alone. S&P upgrade to BBB+ highlighted multiple times. CapEx guidance raised to "at least $3B per year" for next several years.
| Factor | Budget Assumption | Current Reality | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub Natural Gas | ~$3.50/MMBtu | ~$3.80/MMBtu | Slight positive — higher gathering economics |
| WTI Crude Oil | ~$70/bbl | ~$60–65/bbl | Slight negative — CO2 segment (~10% EBITDA) and Bakken gathering |
| LNG Feed Gas | 19.8 Bcf/d avg 2026 | Record levels in Q1 | On track or better |
| Interest Rates | Budgeted levels | Stable | Neutral |
| Tariff Impact | ~1% of major project costs | Uncertainty persists | Manageable per mgmt; LNG demand may benefit as trade partners increase US gas imports |
| Catalyst | Timing | Detail | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| FERC Final Certificates (MSX & SSE4) | By July 31, 2026 | Unlocks $5.2B combined projects; MSX in-service moved up to H1 2028. Jan 30 environmental assessment already positive. | High |
| LNG Feed Gas Record Volumes | Ongoing 2026 | 19.8 Bcf/d 2026 average would be all-time record (+19% YoY). Take-or-pay contracts; on track per Q1 data. | High |
| AI/Data Center Power Demand | Multi-year | 60% of $10B backlog tied to power generation. KMI in discussions on 10+ Bcf/d of gas demand for data centers. | Medium-High |
| Western Gateway Pipeline Decision | H1 2026 | 2nd open season closed March 31 with Phillips 66 JV. Results pending; could unlock ~$1B+ project for AZ/CA supply. | Medium |
| Florida Gas Transmission Projects | 2026-2027 | ~$700M in new projects backed by long-term shipper contracts. Open season results expected. | Medium-High |
| HH Pipeline NGL Conversion Phase 1 | Late Q1/Early Q2 | Bakken NGL takeaway; Phase 1 well contracted. Timing update expected on Q1 call. | Medium |
| Tax Reform Benefits | 2026 | Management flagged "meaningful cash flow benefits from tax reform" generating additional investment capacity. | Medium |
| SSE5 Development | 2026+ | Early discussions for next South System expansion; depends on Southeast demand trajectory. | Medium |
| Date | Headline | Detail | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | Western Gateway 2nd Open Season | KMI & Phillips 66 launch expanded open season (more origins/destinations). Open season closed March 31. | New refined products pipeline avenue; LA market access |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings: Record Results | EBITDA +10% YoY, Adj. EPS +22% YoY. Beat $0.37 consensus by $0.02. | Strong beat; Kim Dang: 'beat our budget by more than Outrigger contribution' |
| Jan 21, 2026 | S&P Upgrades KMI to BBB+ | S&P raises rating following Fitch upgrade (summer 2025) and Moody's positive outlook. | Triple upgrade cycle validates balance sheet; reduces borrowing cost |
| Jan 30, 2026 | FERC Positive Environmental Assessment (MSX & SSE4) | 1,120-page EA concludes 'overall impacts would be minimized and would not be significant.' | Major regulatory milestone; certificate expected by July 2026 |
| Early 2026 | Trident Pipeline Construction Commenced | $1.7B project on budget and on schedule in Texas. | Execution confidence for $10B backlog delivery |
| Feb 2026 | TD Cowen / Scotiabank Price Target Raises | TD Cowen to $35 (Buy); Scotiabank to $30. | Post-Q4 sell-side optimism; stock reached 52-week highs above $34 |
| Mar 2026 | Western Gateway Open Season Closed | Results pending as of Q1 earnings date. Could unlock major JV project. | Key catalyst watch for Q1 call |
Natural Gas Market Extremely Tight
Q4 2025 outperformance on intrastate, interstate, and gathering could persist into Q1. Pipeline spread differentials remain elevated.
LNG at Record Levels
LNG feed gas tracking at record levels in Q1 2026. Take-or-pay contracts support revenues regardless of spot prices. 19.8 Bcf/d 2026 target looks achievable.
FERC Regulatory Overhang Lifting
Jan 30 positive environmental assessment removes key risk. Final certificates for MSX/SSE4 expected by July 2026, unlocking $5.2B in projects.
Conservative Guidance Pattern
FY2025 beat budget "by more than Outrigger contribution." Credit upgrades (triple BBB+) reduce financing costs for $10B backlog deployment.
Tough Q1 2025 Comparison
Q1 2025 benefited from unusually cold weather driving extraordinary gas demand. Q1 2026 consensus EPS flat at $0.34 — any miss vs. tough comp could surprise negatively.
WTI Crude Weakness
Oil at ~$60-65 vs. $70 budget pressures CO2 segment (~10% of EBITDA) and Bakken gathering. Continental Resources Bakken exit also a modest headwind.
Revenue Headline Misleading
Lower commodity prices mean reported revenue will look weak (-8.5% consensus) vs. Q1 2025. Risk of surface-level negative read before analysts explain commodity pass-through dynamic.
Stock Near 52-Week Highs
At ~$33, KMI is near $34.73 52-week high. Tariff uncertainty, crude weakness, and flat EPS growth could weigh on near-term multiple expansion.
1. Western Gateway Outcome
What was the result of the 2nd open season? Level of shipper commitments? Will this proceed to FID with Phillips 66?
2. SSE5 Progress
Any update on the next South System expansion? What level of signed utility load is needed to greenlight?
3. Tariff Impact Update
Has the ~1% project cost estimate changed? Any customer hesitation on new contracts given April 2026 tariff escalation?
4. LNG Feed Gas Tracking
Is the 19.8 Bcf/d 2026 average tracking on pace through Q1? Any variability in LNG plant utilization?
5. HH NGL Conversion Phase 1
Is Phase 1 now in service? Timeline and conditions for Phase 2 decision?
6. Shadow Backlog Update
What is the latest on the $10B+ of additional project opportunities beyond the current backlog?
7. Data Center Direct-Connect
Any new power-gen contracts signed since Q4? Progress on the 10+ Bcf/d of discussions?
8. Florida Gas Transmission
Open season results and potential upsizing from initial ~$700M scope?
KMI reports first among major midstream peers — results serve as the Q1 bellwether for the sector.
| Ticker | Company | Expected Date | Timing vs. KMI |
|---|---|---|---|
| KMI | Kinder Morgan | ~April 16, 2026 AMC | — FIRST TO REPORT — |
| OKE | ONEOK | April 28, 2026 | ~12 days after KMI |
| EPD | Enterprise Products | ~Apr 28 – May 5, 2026 | ~2 weeks after KMI |
| WMB | Williams Companies | ~May 4, 2026 | ~2.5 weeks after KMI |
| ET | Energy Transfer | ~Early May 2026 | ~3 weeks after KMI |
| ENB | Enbridge | ~May 8, 2026 | ~3.5 weeks after KMI |