Financial Trends -- 7/10

DCF/share is the critical metric: +10.5% in 2025 with 3 consecutive years of acceleration (+464, +840, +622 bps). DCF/share reached a record $2.42 in 2025, covering the $1.19 dividend at ~2.0x. Total debt has remained essentially flat at $31,823M while EBITDA grew -- textbook deleveraging through EBITDA growth. Net Debt/EBITDA improved from 4.6x to 3.8x, earning an S&P upgrade to BBB+ in Jan 2026. Share count essentially flat with modest buybacks -- zero dilution, the key point for midstream.

Natural Gas Pipelines is the growth engine, rising 75% from 2020 to 2025. NGP segment EBDA grew from $3,483M (2020) to $6,080M (2025), accelerating +12.0% YoY in 2025 driven by nat gas transport demand, storage services, and Outrigger acquisition. Products Pipelines stable at $1,157M. Terminals grew steadily to $1,143M (+4.0% YoY). CO2 in secular decline at $612M (-11.6% YoY) as oil production falls ~2% annually.

Transport volumes hit record levels; gathering ramping hard in 2H25. Transport volumes of 46,603 BBtu/d grew +5.3% YoY, decelerating from the monster +9.9% in 2024 but still very strong for a mature pipeline network. Gathering volumes of 4,025 BBtu/d decelerated to +2.6% on early-year Haynesville weakness, though Q3/Q4 ramped hard (Q4: 4,513 BBtu/d). Haynesville hit a daily record of 1.97 Bcf/d in Dec 2025 -- a timing issue, not a demand issue.

Clear acceleration through 2025: Q1 +3%, Q2 +6%, Q3 +14%, Q4 +19%. Q4 2025 DCF/share of $0.68 was exceptionally strong, driven by nat gas transport demand, storage services, and Outrigger acquisition contributions. The quarterly cadence shows the growth story is building momentum, not fading. This is the strongest acceleration signal in the midstream peer group.

Final Score: 7 / 10. KMI is at an inflection point where the metrics that matter most for midstream -- DCF/share and forward project backlog -- are clearly accelerating. The quarterly DCF cadence (Q1 +3% to Q4 +19%) is the strongest signal. The $10B approved backlog at sub-6x multiples with $10B+ in additional opportunities provides exceptional forward visibility. What prevents a higher score: (1) EBITDA growth has been only mid-single-digits despite the narrative, (2) dividend growth is minimal at ~2%, and (3) much of the exciting growth is still ahead -- the backlog has not yet fully converted to EBITDA. Execution on the backlog should drive accelerating financial results through 2028+.

Growth Backlog (Q4 2025): $10B approved project backlog as of Q4 2025 (grew from $8.1B to $10.0B during 2025 even after placing $1.8B into service, meaning $3.7B added). Backlog multiple below 6x. Additional $10B+ opportunity set beyond the approved backlog, primarily nat gas for power/LNG. 60% of backlog tied to power generation projects (includes data center demand). Growth CapEx upgraded from ~$2.5B/yr to "at least $3B/yr for the next few years."

AI / Data Center Demand (Q3-Q4 2025): KMI positioned near ~70% of data center activity (per management). Georgia Power alone projects 53 GW of demand by early 2030s. Discussions ongoing across Southern US (Georgia, South Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona). Management emphasizes take-or-pay contracts with investment-grade utilities, not direct AI developer risk. Wood Mackenzie projects power growth 2030-2035 exceeds 2025-2030.

Mega-Projects (Q4 2025): Three mega-projects on track: MSX, South System 4, and Trident -- all on budget and on/ahead of schedule. FERC accelerating approvals. LNG feedgas demand projected to grow from 16.6 Bcf/d (2025 avg) to 19.8 Bcf/d (2026) to 34+ Bcf/d by 2030. Tax reform benefits from bonus depreciation and CAMT adjustments starting 2026.

Risks (Q4 2025): Tariff impact assessed at ~1% of major project costs; mitigated by pre-ordering and domestic steel. Continental Resources stopping Bakken drilling; KMI says Bakken is ~3% of EBITDA, manageable. RNG volumes and D3 RIN prices remain weak. CO2 segment in slow decline (oil production -2% YoY).